After a little bit of a dry spell — two honorees in three years — the final two BBWAA Corridor of Fame ballots have yielded bumper crops, with trios elected every year. Final yr, Ichiro Suzuki fell one vote wanting unanimity, whereas fellow newcomer CC Sabathia and Tenth-year holdover Billy Wagner have been elected as properly. In 2024, it was newcomers Adrian Beltré and Joe Mauer, becoming a member of holdover Todd Helton. Alas, we’re in for a relatively gradual cycle this time round, because the 2026 BBWAA poll — which was launched on Monday — lacks a single newcomer who’s more likely to be elected, a minimum of on this poll and probably ever. If the writers are going to honor anybody, it will likely be a holdover candidate, or maybe two.
That’s my fast learn on the brand new poll, which comprises 27 candidates (12 newcomers and 15 holdovers). Over the following six weeks, I’ll profile the entire candidates more likely to wind up on voters’ ballots forward of the December 31 deadline, with a handful of profiles — the “one-and-dones” — trickling into January. I’ll be inspecting their circumstances in gentle of my Jaffe WAR Rating (JAWS) system, which I’ve used to interrupt down Corridor of Fame ballots as a part of an annual custom that as of final January is sufficiently old to drink. The collection debuted at Baseball Prospectus (2004-12), then moved to SI.com (2013-18), which supplied me a possibility to enter better depth on every candidate. In 2018, I introduced the collection to FanGraphs, the place my protection has grow to be much more expansive.
Immediately I’ll provide a fast take a look at the largest questions hooked up to this yr’s election cycle, however first…
The Fundamentals
To be eligible for election to the Corridor of Fame through the BBWAA poll, a candidate should have performed within the majors for elements of 10 years (one recreation is ample to be counted as a yr on this context), have been out of the majors for 5 years (the minors or international leagues don’t depend), after which have been nominated by two members of the BBWAA’s six-member screening committee. Because the balloting is titled with respect to induction yr, not the yr of launch, that implies that this yr’s newcomers final appeared within the majors in 2020. Every new candidate has 10 years of eligibility on the poll, a discount from the 15-year interval that was in impact for a number of many years. The final candidate grandfathered into getting the total 15 years was Lee Smith, whose eligibility expired in 2017, whereas the final to have his eligibility window truncated mid-candidacy was Jeff Kent, who fell off after the 2023 cycle. Coincidentally, Kent could be the finest guess for election on the 2026 Up to date Baseball Period Committee poll, however that’s a complete totally different course of.
To be elected, a candidate should obtain a minimum of 75% of the ballots solid, and on this case, they don’t spherical up; 74.9% received’t minimize it. Likewise, candidates who don’t obtain a minimum of 5% fall off the poll and might then solely be thought of for election by the aforementioned Up to date Baseball Period Committee — however not till what would have been their 10-year run of eligibility expires.
The voters, every of whom has been an energetic BBWAA member for a minimum of 10 years and is not more than 10 years faraway from energetic protection, can record as many as 10 candidates on their ballots, a quantity that grew to become some extent of rivalry a decade in the past given the excessive quantity of certified candidates. In 2015, the Corridor tabled a BBWAA proposal to increase the poll to 12 slots (I used to be on the committee that advisable the change). Final yr, the Tenth because the Corridor purged the rolls of voters greater than 10 years faraway from protection, 394 ballots have been solid; the yr earlier than that, the quantity was 385, the fewest of any cycle since 1983. This yr’s pool will doubtless be bigger thanks partly to the BBWAA’s 2015 choice to confess MLB.com writers and editors. In response to the parents on the Corridor of Fame Poll Tracker, as many as 40 and even 50 new voters may be part of the rolls, with about 25 of these coming from MLB.com. Nearer to residence, colleagues Dan Szymborski and Jeff Zimmerman might be amongst this yr’s first-time voters, becoming a member of David Laurila and myself among the many FanGraphs contingent.
Ballots have to be postmarked by December 31 (sure, the BBWAA nonetheless does this by mail). Voters could reveal their ballots previous to the announcement, as 55% did final yr. You’ll be able to observe the reported ballots utilizing the Poll Tracker, and should you’re trying to observe together with the Tracker as ballots are revealed, you’ll be able to observe Ryan Thibodaux on Bluesky. Voters may also examine a field on the poll to authorize the publication of their selections on the BBWAA’s web site two weeks after the election outcomes are revealed. Between BBWAA.com and the Tracker, 84.5% of voters revealed their ballots in 2025, the very best share ever.
I’ll be revealing my very own poll right here at FanGraphs just a few days earlier than the deadline, taking readers by way of my thought course of as I clarify which bins I’ll be checking. This might be my sixth yr as a voter, and no, the novelty hasn’t worn off. For many who need to play alongside at residence, registered FanGraphs customers will have the ability to take part through our crowdsource poll, which we’ll put up quickly.
The election outcomes might be introduced on MLB Community on January 20. Any gamers elected will be part of any honorees elected through the Up to date Baseball Period Committee poll, whose outcomes might be introduced on December 7, for the Induction Ceremony scheduled for July 26, 2026 on the grounds of the Clark Sports activities Middle in Cooperstown, New York.
Are you going to inform us who’s truly on the poll?
Maintain your baserunners, I’m attending to it. The 12 newcomers are famous in italics:
Bobby Abreu, Carlos Beltrán, Ryan Braun, Mark Buehrle, Shin-Soo Choo, Edwin Encarnación, Gio González, Alex Gordon, Cole Hamels, Félix Hernández, Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, Matt Kemp, Howie Kendrick, Nick Markakis, Daniel Murphy, Dustin Pedroia, Hunter Pence, Andy Pettitte, Rick Porcello, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Francisco Rodríguez, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Omar Vizquel, David Wright
Who’re one of the best newcomers?
No one here’s a slam dunk. One of the best of the newcomers is Hamels, who went 163-122 with a 3.43 ERA (123 ERA+) and a pair of,560 strikeouts in a 15-year profession that was shortened by arm accidents. His final look — his solely one of many 2020 season, a 3 1/3-inning stint — was in his age-36 season, although if it feels prefer it hasn’t been that lengthy because you heard about him, you’re not mistaken. He tried a comeback as lately as 2023.
Throughout his profession, Hamels totaled 59.0 WAR, with 37.4 peak WAR and a 48.2 S-JAWS. That final mark is the very best of any pitcher on the poll, increased than both Hernández (44.1), whom I voted for final yr, or Pettitte (47.2), whom I included for the primary time the yr earlier than. Whereas Hamels’ numbers don’t shout “Corridor of Famer,” the truth is that we’re not going to see anyone with the kinds of numbers Sabathia put up save for when Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander attain the poll. The one different energetic pitcher apart from Scherzer and Verlander with an S-JAWS increased than Hamels is Chris Sale (49.5), with Jacob deGrom (43.7) and Gerrit Cole (38.8) the following two amongst energetic starters. In that gentle, Hamels begins to look fairly good, and I’m hopeful he will get sufficient assist to stay on the poll in order that the voters can mull his candidacy because it has these of Hernández, Pettitte, and Buehrle.
The opposite newcomer who’s notably of observe is Braun, a former Rookie of the Yr and MVP who completed second and third within the voting for the latter award as properly. In a 14-year profession, Braun made six All-Star groups and clubbed 352 homers, main the NL as soon as and reaching the 30-homer plateau six occasions. A swift and sensible baserunner, he stole 216 bases in his profession, and reached the dual plateaus of 30 homers and 30 steals in the identical season in each 2011 and ’12. His profession was in the end a brief one, as he retired after his age-36 season and fell 37 hits shy of two,000. His 43.0 JAWS ranks simply twenty fifth amongst left fielders, 10.5 factors beneath the usual, however maybe his largest impediment by way of voter assist is his 65-game suspension for receiving performance-enhancing medicine by way of the Biogenesis Clinic in 2013 — and that wasn’t even the primary time he was suspended. He was beforehand suspended in December 2011, shortly after being named MVP, however… you realize what? We’ll get to that in due time.
Does anybody else stand out to you among the many newcomers?
We have now a former Cy Younger winner in Porcello, a runner-up to Braun within the 2011 NL MVP race in Kemp, and a slugger with over 400 profession homers in Encarnación, however the one who catches my eye is Choo. A decade in the past, I raised a little bit of a stink when Chan Ho Park was left off the poll, as I felt {that a} former All-Star who was the primary Korean-born participant to play within the majors as a part of a 17-year profession — and nonetheless the chief in wins (124) amongst pitchers born in Asia — was a minimum of worthy of that valedictory. His omission felt like a useless slight of a participant who’s revered in his homeland. I raised the same fuss the next yr, when Javier Vazquez — the all-time chief amongst Puerto Rican pitchers in wins, strikeouts, and WAR — was left off. Since then, the ballots have gotten extra inclusive, so I used to be completely satisfied to see Choo make the minimize, as he’s the primary Korean participant to take action. Exempted from navy service as a result of his function within the success of South Korea’s gold medal-winning nationwide workforce within the 2010 Asian Video games (he additionally performed for South Korea’s 2009 World Baseball Basic workforce, which completed second), he went on to make an All-Star workforce, begin for 3 playoff groups, and accumulate by far essentially the most hits (1,671), homers (218) and WAR (34.7) of any Korean-born participant. He additionally did one thing very cool: Through the 2020 COVID-19 shutdown, he reportedly donated $1,000 to every of the Rangers’ almost 200 minor league gamers to assist them with bills, and made a large donation to South Korea’s efforts to fight COVID.
If Nick Markakis had reached 3,000 hits, would he have been elected to the Corridor?
One in all my favourite foolish hypotheticals was being requested if Markakis, who didn’t make an All-Star workforce till his age-34 season (his solely look), would attain one of many magic milestones that ensures induction as long as a participant hasn’t been linked to PEDs. It grew to become A Factor — a recurring query in my weekly chats and on social media — as a result of he collected 185 hits in 2018, that All-Star season, and had 2,237 to that time, sufficient for some to squint and counsel that with simply over 150 hits per yr for one more half decade, he’d get to three,000, albeit because the least-decorated member of the membership. Markakis performed simply two extra seasons and fell quick, sparing us that reckoning. I’ll get to all of that inside his one-and-done profile.
So is that this the weakest poll ever?
I don’t learn about “ever,” however it’s fairly weak. The first means I observe poll power is by counting what number of candidates meet or exceed the JAWS commonplace at their place, and what number of have a JAWS of a minimum of 50.0 (40.0 for catcher). The totals listed here are two for the previous (simply Manny and A-Rod) and 6 for the latter (Abreu, Beltrán, Jones, and Utley are the others). Beltrán is simply 0.8 factors shy of the usual and Utley 0.1 factors shy — negligible quantities, actually, and nothing that’s stopped me from voting for them each each time they’ve been eligible, however for accounting functions, I don’t spherical up. That’s why I’ve bought that second depend, which is I believe a greater big-picture approximation of poll high quality. As for a way that stacks up, right here’s an summary of the ballots from the previous half-century:
You must return to 1988 to discover a poll the place two or fewer candidates met the JAWS requirements. Ron Santo was the one one who did in order that yr, and he acquired simply 25.1% of the vote, whereas Willie Stargell (47.8 JAWS) was the one candidate elected that yr. Solely 9 occasions previously 50 years has there been a poll with both one or two gamers exceeding the usual, and that is the primary one outdoors the 1978–88 span.
The final time there have been six or fewer candidates with a JAWS of fifty.0 was 2008, when there have been simply 5, particularly Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Mark McGwire, Tim Raines, and Alan Trammell. Wealthy Gossage, the one candidate elected, was considered one of 4 above his place’s commonplace together with Blyleven, Raines, and Trammell. The 2006 poll was even weaker, with Blyleven, Trammell, and Dawson the one candidates reaching 50 JAWS, and Blyleven, Trammell, and Gossage the one ones assembly the requirements.
One other method to measure poll power is by what number of first-year candidates even obtain the 5% required to stay eligible. The 2023 poll had simply two (Beltrán and Francisco Rodríguez), however a minimum of considered one of them is powerful sufficient to be a possible honoree. The 2021 poll had simply three (Buehrle, Hunter, and Tim Hudson), none of whom appears more likely to be elected. The 2020 poll additionally had two, however Derek Jeter was elected, and Abreu stays eligible. The 2012 poll had only one, Bernie Williams; he acquired 9.6% and lasted only one extra yr. Raines was the one first-year candidate to make the minimize in 2008, however a minimum of he went on to be elected. In 1987, Bobby Bonds (5.8%) was the one first-year candidate to final to a second yr, whereas in ’84, prime first-year candidate Wilbur Wooden didn’t even handle that share; regardless of receiving simply 3.5%, he was allowed to stay round as a part of a second likelihood given to 11 candidates who had acquired lower than 5% from 1980–84, a gaggle that included Santo and Dick Allen.
For all of that, this bears repeating: Even when this isn’t a powerful poll, the candidates on all of it had spectacular careers, and the checkbox subsequent to their names — and the attendant recognition that comes with their presence on this cycle — is itself an honor. I’ll be taking deep dives into all of their careers; a few of my favourite profiles to put in writing are of the one-and-done guys, and I do know readers take pleasure in these as properly.
Which holdovers have an opportunity to get elected this yr?
Beltrán, who acquired 70.3% final yr, his third of eligibility, is one of the best guess for election. The quintessential five-tool participant, he’s considered one of eight with a minimum of 300 homers and 300 steals, and owns the very best stolen base success fee (86.4%) of any participant with a minimum of 200 makes an attempt. He’s a bit beneath the profession, peak, and JAWS requirements at a really top-heavy place, however he’s one of the best eligible middle fielder outdoors the Corridor and one of many prime 10 all time. Although he was on the middle of the Astros’ unlawful sign-stealing scandal, which nipped his managerial profession within the bud, voters have usually been supportive of him; he debuted at 46.5% in 2023 and has posted double-digit features in every cycle since. Because the voters returned to annual balloting in 1966, there have been 26 situations the place a contemporary period candidate acquired a minimum of 70% however lower than 75% and nonetheless had eligibility remaining; of these, 22 have been elected the next yr, with Jim Bunning and Curt Schilling every accounting for 2 of the 4 exceptions, the latter by sabotaging his personal candidacy in methods we don’t have to rehash right here.
Jones, who acquired 66.2% final yr, his eighth of eligibility, has a good likelihood as properly. The defensive cornerstone of the Braves’ dynasty, he received 10 Gold Gloves and ranks first on the place in fielding runs (+235). He additionally added 434 residence runs regardless of a profession that collapsed at age 31 and ended after his age-35 season, although he went on to play two years in Japan. He’s climbed all the way in which from a 7.5% debut in 2019. Since 1966, there have been 31 situations the place a candidate acquired between 65% and 70% and nonetheless had eligibility remaining (24 candidates, six of whom repeated as soon as and considered one of whom repeated twice). In 14 of these 31 situations, the candidate was elected the following yr, and in 22 of the 31, he was elected inside two years. Each of the above counts embody Wagner (68.1% in 2023, 73.8% in ’24, 82.5% final yr).
Past that, the next-highest share of the vote from a returning candidate is Utley, with 39.8%. He’s poised to interrupt the 50% mark, which has lengthy been a harbinger of future election, however he’s too far off to get to 75% this time. Extra on him beneath.
How about these PED guys?
Nothing’s modified. No one suspended by Main League Baseball both for testing optimistic or incurring a non-analytic optimistic (i.e., being recognized as a consumer through a league investigation similar to Biogenesis) since testing started in 2004 has been elected. Ramirez acquired 34.3% in yr 9, so he’s in his final go-round on this format, whereas A-Rod acquired 37.1% in yr 4. Whereas I don’t anticipate people to alter their minds in regards to the guys caught red-handed, I do know a minimum of just a few first-time voters who intend to incorporate them, so we’ll see in the event that they achieve any traction.
Are there any down-ballot candidates price maintaining a tally of?
Utley’s candidacy is off to a really strong begin, as he gained 11 factors in his second cycle and is already previous the purpose the place future election turns into extra doubtless than not. Since 1966, 5 candidates have peaked within the 40%–50% vary and haven’t been elected; just one crossed the 40% threshold extra rapidly, particularly Steve Garvey, who debuted at 41.6% in 1993 however couldn’t considerably add to that given a mixture of the deal with his off-field life and the high-offense setting that arose throughout his candidacy. He hung round within the excessive 30s and low 40s for his first 5 years, maxing out at 42.6% in his fifth yr.
The opposite 4 lagged behind Utley. Marty Marion reached precisely 40% in his twelfth election (1970) out of 15, however backslid from there. Roger Maris crossed the 40% threshold in his thirteenth yr (1986) and maxed out at 43.1% two years later. Maury Wills peaked at 40.6% in his fourth yr (1981) however quickly bled assist as a result of a short and dreadful managerial profession (1980–81) and a 1983 arrest for cocaine possession. The aforementioned Kent didn’t attain 40% till his Tenth and closing yr (46.5%).
Utley’s coattails may assist a few different candidates. Rollins is coming off his strongest cycle (nonetheless only a modest 18% in his fourth yr), however together with his double play companion poised to rise, he may benefit given his edge in conventional counting stats and his MVP award. Pedroia, who debuted at 11.9%, may benefit from comparisons to Utley — he did win an MVP award and a number of World Sequence, for instance — and Kent, who as I stated may need one of the best likelihood of election on that Up to date poll.
Just like the overwhelming majority of different voters, I’ve by no means been notably satisfied with regards to Buehrle, whose fifth-year share was simply 11.4%. That stated, his 214 profession wins and 47.2 JAWS match snugly throughout the context of the opposite starters I’ve talked about, and there’s an opportunity all of them profit from elevated consideration. I’m additionally very to see how Hernández fares after a stronger-than-expected debut (20.6%) given the inflow of latest voters.
Whereas I nonetheless have two candidates to cowl on the Up to date Baseball poll, profiles of those candidates ought to start rolling out quickly, and I’ll publish a preliminary schedule when our crowdsource poll goes stay.