Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 11/13/25

Dan Szymborski: And awaaaaay we go!

Ryan: After writing your Phillies report, do you see them as a match for Jarren Duran? If not them, who?

Dan Szymborski: If they need him and have sufficient to tempt the Pink Sox, I believe most groups may slot in Duran’s skillset

Dan Szymborski: I’ve to confess, I’m nonetheless unsure how a lot of the commerce buzz is smoke and never fireplace, even when it is smart because of the logjam

The one that asks the lunch query: Is it a lunch day? What’s for lunch, if that’s the case?

Dan Szymborski: No lunch at this time

War2D2: What had been your emotions on the NL Cy Younger? I heard some grumbling that Sanchez had a harder schedule and will have no less than garnered a pair 1st place votes.

Dan Szymborski: I’m a bit ambivalent as I believe it was fairly shut, nearer than the primary palce vote tallies. I haven’t actually dug into WHO I believe is the higher candidate although.

Mike: Of those three, who will nonetheless be on the Twins when the season begins… Lopez, Ryan, Buxton? Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: I truly suppose they are going to all be

Sam: Woohoo for ZiPS season! Concerning the Phillies projections – the outfield appears weak (per standard sadly). What would your best and life like outfield seem like for 2026? (i.e., resigning Bader for CF and looking for a proper fielder)

Dan Szymborski: I count on them to come back to phrases with Schwarber in the long run and seek for a fill-in candidate much like what they did with Kepler

Dan Szymborski: One uncertainty is I simply don’t have a really feel for the way THEY really feel about Castellanos

Dan: How do you see Sonny Grey faring subsequent yr (and in 27 if his possibility is exercised)? Can he go toe-to-toe with the Stop/Valdez/Suarez cohort for a yr or two?

Dan Szymborski: He’d do decently, however it might doubtless be quick time period; keep in mind, 2028 is his age *38* season.

Dan Szymborski: If he’s a free agent after subsequent season opting out after Playing cards workouts possibility, he’ll most likely get an additional yr at that wage, not a giant wage bump

Mike: Wow. Is that the correct factor for the Twins?

Dan Szymborski: In all probability not. As soon as you are taking a heel flip, it’s finest to not go away it half accomplished.

wheelhouse: does zips see tucker as being as prone to reside as much as the contract he’s projected to get as different latest #1 free brokers? i do know he’s nice however i simply see this Thirtieth-percentile consequence the place he’s both a poor defensive RF or a 1B/DH with half the contract left to go

Dan Szymborski: I don’t. ZiPS doesn’t both, although I don’t at all times agree with ZiPS

War2D2: What does ZiPS consider Horton going ahead? The projections on FG proper now are…not good, to say the least. Having watched nearly each begin of his I personally really feel like he’s most likely higher than a 1.4 WAR participant, given how properly he controls the zone. I believe he has the likelihood to be a fairly good #3, type of one other Taillon (for a comp in his personal rotation). I understand even that prediction will disappoint most Cubs followers!

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS likes him fairly a bit greater than Steamer does

Lars: Why do MLB gamers foul so many extra balls off themselves than, say, excessive schoolers? Far more inside pitches? A lot extra motion?

Dan Szymborski: I believe there’s numerous reality to this. And a significant leaguer is far more competent at connecting with a shitty inside pitch they shouldn’t have swung at

matt w: Have you ever already began fascinated with the particular typeface you’ll use for Skenes within the Pirates projections? Additionally, how are the cats?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve already thought of find out how to be obnoxious alongside these traces. However you’ll have to attend and see if I’m

Dan Szymborski: Sadly, Mercutio crashed a number of weeks in the past with acute kidney failure, which principally fast-forwarded him from his early stage power kidney illness to finish stage. He principally went from regular to unable to stroll in about 5 hours and after I introduced him to the vet, his temperature was all the way down to 90 levels. There was no selection what the humane factor to do was (he was 17)

Dan Szymborski: Constantine is the one who most seen he’s gone; Constantine used to fetch him for dinner and has been meowing a bit in Merc’s favourite spots. The opposite two are positive.

Visitor: Sorry if I glossed over any prior rationalization,  however has there been any modifications to the zips system that effected this years projections?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing tremendous completely different!

Dan Szymborski: There’s an intro for the ZiPS launch!

Satan Ray Jay Johnson: Did you’ve got an awards vote this yr? If that’s the case, what was your normal course of?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t actually thought of my Corridor poll in specifics but; they’re alleged to be mailed out from Cooperstown this coming Monday

TameImp: Is it secure to say that if Fairbanks had no takers at $11mm then Devin Williams most likely isn’t price $22mm for one yr?

Dan Szymborski: I’d positively be shocked if Williams obtained that

Chef Boyardee is right here: Any bizarre goals these days?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing too odd actually

Tiger Fan: Hey Dan, broad FG query right here: are positional changes displayed publicly, and if that’s the case, the place? I used to be questioning if 2B or 3B was greater. It appears like 3B protection is publicly thought of extra essential than 2B, although a 2B has much more floor to cowl. Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: Those I exploit in ZiPS are a bit “mellower”

Dan Szymborski: I exploit C 9, 1B -9.5, 2B 3, 3B 2, SS 7, LF -7, CF 2.5, RF -7, DH -9.5

Lord Thunder: Will Adley be thought of a prime 5 catcher in MLB 3 years from now?

Dan Szymborski: Honeslty, I’m leaning to no

Dan Szymborski: Although it’s actually fairly doable he’s

Insert Witty Identify Right here: How can baseball regulate their playing income stream to the place all star pitchers who make tens of thousands and thousands of {dollars} received’t juke their stats for 1919 Black Sox cash?

Dan Szymborski: That’s the factor that amazes me, the piddling quantities of cash concerned.

Dan Szymborski: It’s like if a crew requested me to vary a projection to a pretend on they supply and paid me with a sandwich

Dan Szymborski: I should purchase my very own sandwich, thanks very a lot

Tom: Ha-Seong Kim, do you suppose he finally ends up being getting a contract lower than consensus – and who makes probably the most sense to you? That appears excessive for a waiver declare a number of months again…(FYI 3/ $45M per crowdsource)

Dan Szymborski: I are inclined to suppose he’ll and shoudl most likely take into account a pillow deal. We’ll see

Shandy Koufax: Noticed at this time that DRS and FRV, regardless of each being above common stats, sum to very completely different non-zero values. What offers? (FRV was -33, and -6 the final 2 years and DRS was 427 and 466)

Dan Szymborski: DRS isn’t being ruthless rebalanced to common clearly!

Mike: This doubtless isn’t the final playing subject sports activities has. We have now to imagine some NFL officers are doing this, sure? How unhealthy will it get how briskly?

Dan Szymborski: It’ll probalby worsen earlier than it will get higher. It’s type of a messy factor

Boo Dodgers: I’ve a lot of coworkers who suppose MLB groups can simply purchase world collection these days and level to the Dodgers as their prime instance. I agree with them that cash issues and helps, however I don’t suppose it’s the main issue for figuring out success. Sure, groups that win WS are inclined to have spent more cash, however a part of that’s good groups spend cash when it’s extra precious to them to take action. The Dodgers additionally occur to be the among the many finest at creating gamers. What do you suppose?

Dan Szymborski: The factor is, cash solely goes to date as a result of the game is *inherently* coin flippy

Dan Szymborski: A crew going from a 15% likelihood of a WS trophy to a 60% likelihood simply by spending a complete crapload of cash could be an actual downside

Dan Szymborski: But when one of the best that cash alone can do is transfer you from, say, 15% to 19%, it’s arduous to care THAT a lot about it

matt w: I’m sorry about Mercutio. We misplaced our 17-year-old cat just a little over a yr in the past and it was very arduous. Now now we have three younger cats.

Visitor: Sorry on your loss, Dan. Dropping a furry member of the family is at all times actually powerful.

Alby: No query, simply sorry to listen to about Mercutio. It’s at all times powerful.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks! It was fairly a shock since he had been appearing comparatively regular.

Dan Szymborski: However he *was* getting that previous cat look so it had been behind my thoughts for a couple of yr.

Dan Szymborski: He was getting bonier and his arthritis was unhealthy, and I’m fairly certain he was going deaf

Dan Szymborski: He was getting month-to-month injections for his arthritis which had been serving to, however nonetheless, he was solely going to worsen, not higher

Dan Szymborski: Once I obtained the vet ER, I did have them carry out a battery of exams and attempt to stabilize him, simply so I may make certain what was occurring. Because it was so fast, a lot of issues may have occurred

Dan Szymborski: however his blood chemistry from his kidneys was off the desk unhealthy

Dan Szymborski: the vet thought it was triggered by pancreatitis

Visitor: Obviosley you aren’t going to utterly spoil it for us, however how does ZIPS really feel in regards to the Reds rotation? High 5?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll simply say it decently likes them!

War2D2: As an apart: sorry I’m machine gunning you with questions, I’ve not been in a position to attend a chat in like a month. I admire that you just do these!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t often do chats throughout playoffs just because I’m sneaking each minute to get zips prepared that I can! So that you didn’t miss something

Schwarbomb: Can you change a gamers house ballpark and see hypothetical modifications of their projections? Ex. Schwarber performs 81 video games at GABP, vs 81 video games at Oracle Park. Is that one thing you may play with?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah. Actually, a typical factor that player-agents like is a readout of the ZiPS for a participant in each park

mmddyyyy: What do you attempt to do for skilled development?

Dan Szymborski: At this stage in my profession, I’m simply making an attempt to arrest skilled decline!

War2D2: Don’t the piddling quantities type of indicate that Clasé et al had extra occurring? I are inclined to assume that when you’re so determined for $5k you’re most likely over-extended. I’m not by any stretch a wealthy man, however I don’t suppose $5k could be sufficient for me to even take into account making a change within the knowledge I exploit at work.

Dan Szymborski: It’s actually doable, however I don’t need to speculate what EXACTLY was occurring, since I don’t know.

Dan Szymborski: Individuals generally simply do very silly issues that present them no actual profit

Dan Szymborski: For example, I’m a sucker for gasoline station sizzling canines and lukewarm gasoline station breakfast sandwiches

Visitor: Sorry about cat, I had 13 yr previous lab i misplaced and now my 13 yr previous Scottish terrier and I miss her terribly

Dan Szymborski: I’m sorry on your losses as properly! My grandparents had a scotty after I was little that I used to be very connected to

Tom: What’s the highest eightieth percentile projection you’ve got seen ZIPS produce, and does it shock you that it was 2026 Paul Skenes?

Dan Szymborski: I’m fairly certain it was a de grom

Springerdingding: How uncommon would you guess or would ZiPS say is a rebound yr like we noticed from Springer?  This a few years previous the steroid period, any indicators of re-lengthening of the height efficiency window because of non-cheating conditioning and surgical enhancements?

Dan Szymborski: It’s on the weird facet – 4% of gamers beat their ninety fifth percentile OPS+ and Springer was considered one of them

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t seen any efficiency modifications

War2D2: Condolences for the lack of Mercutio as properly. I misplaced my 17yo tux cat in 2019 and I nonetheless by accident name each my canine and my new cat by his identify.

Dan Szymborski: BRB

Dan Szymborski: Okay web simply went out so im on cellphone. This shall be slower

JD Martin: has the widespread availability of AI instruments helped ZiPS in any respect?

Dan Szymborski: Not likely. It’s helped clear up a few of my hamhanded visible fundamental code

Dan Szymborski: Zips is already kind of a supervised mannequin

Tike Mrout: Are there any gamers that you just suppose ZiPS is flat incorrect about, however in methods which are troublesome/unattainable to repair inside the mannequin?

Dan Szymborski: This was a bigger downside the primary few years, however wringing put calibration points has eradicated this as a giant downside

Dan Szymborski: 12 months to yr misses are uncorrelated, and I’ve discovered no widespread threads on giant misses

Dan Szymborski: Which is just too unhealthy; I want there have been simple accuracy boosts on the market to be discovered

Cats: Including to the refrain of condolences right here. It’s such a tragic factor. Have you ever ever defined to us the way you arrived at your cats’ names? Mercutio is an 80-grade identify.

Dan Szymborski: No rhyme or cause actually. I like historic and literary names

Dan Szymborski: I used to be going to call my sibling pair Antonio and prospero, however I believed that individuals who didn’t get the reference would suppose i gave that cat a random individual identify

Dan Szymborski: It’s bizarre to me when cats have widespread individual names

Dan Szymborski: I do know somebody who has a cat Ed. That’s simply so odd to my ears

Sir Nerdlington: Any concept how ABS will change the catching defensive worth in zWAR? Do I want to start out working with my child on anti-framing and yoinking balls out of the zone?

Dan Szymborski: In all probability not an enormous quantity on this sorta robotic system

Dan Szymborski: Want they only went to all robotic location fairly than this half measure

romorr: Phillies first, Dan? The place are the Orioles? Your bias isn’t displaying.

Dan Szymborski: All random!

TameImp: On condition that Gleyber Torres was solely in a position to get 1 for $15mm final yr, was his 2025 season bounce backy sufficient to get extra bidders on board? Simply looks as if one thing in his profile that doesn’t excite groups.

Dan Szymborski: Hell get a greater deal however nothing large

Sir Nerdlington: The Cubs payroll is infuriating, however I’m making an attempt to mature and provides them the good thing about the doubt. Do you’ve got any perception as to whether or not they’re spending significantly greater than different groups on tech, FO employees (not scouts obv), facilities? Or is it simply paying off the Resort Zachary?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t. It’s one of many issues least prone to be communicated to me.

Dan Szymborski: Groups are often joyful to speak store with me, and everybody is aware of im not a reporter, however im nonetheless journalisty sufficient that there a limits on what’s shared

Patrick Kivlehan: What goes into the selections concerning displaying “exterior” stats on Fangraphs? Considering of the PitchingBot grades as a latest instance, and questioning if one thing like SEAGER from BPro may make an look.

Dan Szymborski: That’s a query for Dave principally! I’m certain value is an element too

Mike: How do you do, zips for a crew just like the Twins who’ve perhaps two guys within the bullpen, no first baseman, one catcher?

Dan Szymborski: I imply its principally zips for the gamers presently related to groups fairly than precise crew projections

Dan Szymborski: However that’s a fairly wordy article totle

Dan Szymborski: Uh oh I sizzling canine finger d a w about which nl west crew is largest menace to la

Dan Szymborski: I believe in 2026 most likely Arizona. Padres have numerous pitching to search out and restricted payroll to do it

Dan Szymborski: Thank goodness, the web’s again. I a lot desire typing on a REAL pc.

Towson Market: Considering that Trent Grisham could be nice get for Orioles… U in or out on him?

Dan Szymborski: He’d be attention-grabbing, however I’m unsure that he’d be a precedence. If the Orioles need to spend cash, I’d need a pitcher

Dan Szymborski: Is there something even left at Towson Market? Final I drove by I do know PetSmart, and Ollies are there and Goal

mmddyyyy: At what age do gamers cease getting quicker?

Dan Szymborski: Very younger

Tacoby Bellsbury: 1/Thirtieth of the best way by way of, what’s probably the most shocking factor ZiPS has spit out to date?

Dan Szymborski: Properly, the primary ZiPS batch run, it projected 2000 hitters and named all of them Zyhir Hope

Dan Szymborski: The Crawford projection is kinda bizarre in that ZiPS thinks he’s a really strong participant proper now, however principally has him plateauing at this stage

Oaktown Blues: Which of the 2000 Zyhirs Hope had probably the most shocking projection to you?

Dan Szymborski: Properly, the one through which Zyhir Hope projected to 7 level one thing WAR. That’s lots for Hope

drplantwrench: do you’ve got ideas on the Angel’s teaching hires? are they doing one thing good for as soon as?!

Dan Szymborski: Sort of a wait and see. I’m most optimistic abotu Keith Johnson

Insert Witty Identify Right here: Any concepts for a brand new cats identify? I informed my spouse our subsequent one goes to be Yoshinobu Yamamoto simply because it’s so enjoyable to say and I’m principally trying ahead to the Vet’s face after they hear it.

Dan Szymborski: I believe Pet names are a private factor!

Dan Szymborski: On that observe, I’ve the subsequent crew ZiPS to complete for publication, so it’s time to go!

Dan Szymborski: I’ll see you all subsequent time