Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 11/11/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, people! Welcome to the primary offseason version of my weekly chat.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve reached the halfway level in my analysis of the Up to date Baseball Period Committee poll, which was launched every week in the past. Festivus has come early, for right this moment I took one other take a look at Gary Sheffield, his unending checklist of grievances, and his prodigious offensive manufacturing https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c…

Jay Jaffe: earlier than them it was Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy, whose profiles you possibly can attain through the navbar above both of these linked articles.

Jay Jaffe: Tomorrow’s topic is Jeff Kent, which leaves Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Fernando Valenzuela to spherical out the poll.

Jay Jaffe: anyway, on with the present…

sodo mojo: I requested this at first of the season and your reply was the participant didn’t have sufficient of a bat which made sense on the time, however I need to ask it once more in gentle of recent proof.  Do you assume Cal Raleigh has a path to the Corridor the place he spends the following 3 years at catcher and slowly transitions to a full time DH for the next 4 years? if he can common 4 conflict over the following seven years it could give him 49 whole is that sufficient given he was a catcher for almost all of his profession?

Jay Jaffe: I feel there’s a legit path to Cooperstown for Raleigh, however I feel it’s going to depend on retaining some share of the catcher duties for so long as doable.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume three years of full-time obligation goes to chop it

Jay Jaffe: it was exhausting sufficient to persuade some those that Joe Mauer belonged given his mid-career transition to first base, and we’re going to be taking a look at Buster Posey’s shortish profession quickly too

Jay Jaffe: obv, profitable the AL MVP can be an enormous enhance as properly.

Jacob: What’s the actual function of GM Conferences? What number of groups do even have a solidified one who fills the position these days? Ought to they rename it as “Govt Conferences? “

Jay Jaffe: in gentle of all of the presidents of baseball operation and the title inflation usually, sure, it could make extra sense to name them the manager conferences. as for his or her function, they operate as a possibility for networking to put groundwork for trades in addition to addressing some leaguewide issues  — dates, rule modifications, insurance policies, different stuff

Jay Jaffe: stand by — lunch has arrived (banh mi right this moment)

Jay Jaffe: needed to go together with the backup banh mi place right this moment. a bit bready and dearer however not unhealthy.

Jacob: Zach Littell or Zach Eflin? Which might you favor to signal and reunite with the Rays?

Jay Jaffe: I’d lean Eflin however provided that the medicals take a look at and if it’s an incentive-based deal after he missed about half the season on account of decrease again woes

BallFourFan: Would Gary Sanchez be a very good match for a reunion with the Yankees as a backup proper handed hitting catcher?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, i don’t see a necessity. Between Austin Wells, JC Escarra and occasional work from Ben Rice (who will seemingly be the common 1B), they’re well-stocked, and anyone in that entrance workplace didn’t like Sanchez a lot judging by all of the pissing and moaning about his protection that filtered into the beat protection of him throughout his first go-round.

Dan S.: Looks like Sonny Grey has no surplus worth and St. Louis must eat round $10M to discover a taker/extra to get something of worth again. Does that sound correct to you? What about Willson Contreras? Does he have a little bit of surplus worth at 2/36.5 + an choice? The buyout on that choice is a considerable $5M.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see STL having to eat practically that a lot in the event that they need to deal Grey, who has a $35 million wage for subsequent yr and a $30 million choice for 2027 with a $5 million buyout that’s deferred. That may in all probability restrict his market, which the pitcher has some management over anyway on account of his no-trade clause

Jay Jaffe: Contreras is perhaps a bit undervalued, however not as a lot as he can be if he have been nonetheless a catcher

Zach: How can the Dodgers really get youthful on offense? Realistically, they’ve solely bought one lineup spot open (one of many outfield positions), so their flexibility appears fairly restricted.

Jay Jaffe: They’ve a gap in an outfield nook (in all probability RF with Teoscar shifting to left) and suppleness at second base as properly, the place they may do one thing involving Hyeseong Kim and/or Alex Freeland, with Tommy Edman selecting up begins at a number of positions

Jay Jaffe: Buying and selling Teoscar would open up extra avenues for getting youthful, and after his defensive struggles it wouldn’t shock me a ton in the event that they went that manner, even whereas consuming a piece of change

wrights_back: The Alonso permutations are head spinning!  Given the gang sourced contract particulars, what route do you assume Stearns goes?   Sure, Pete is nice a scooping balls within the dust, however watching Vlad pay 1B within the WS was an eye fixed opener for this Met fan (and never in a optimistic manner).   $150Mn for a one dimensional DH is a surefire option to clog up the multi dimensional DH ready within the wings (Soto).

Jay Jaffe: Alonso is a really unhealthy first baseman whose defensive deficits led to a number of pitcher accidents together with that of Kodai Senga, which can have turned the Mets’ season. I feel a higher-AAV/shorter-term deal is smart for them in the event that they’re going to retain Alonso, since, as you be aware, Juan Soto is DH-bound sooner or later. If he’s set on greater than 4 years, it is perhaps time to maneuver in a distinct route, even when he’s a fan favourite. Once you win simply 83 video games, getting too connected to your ~3-win veterans is a ticket to oblivion

Jacob: Murakami reportedly has issues with 93+ mph fastballs and breaking pitches…isn’t that 90% of MLB degree pitchers?

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, that’s an actual downside, and Eric Longehagen expressed some considerations in his scouting report a pair weeks again https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-scout-the-players-coming-over-from-as…. It seems like Murakami may have some mechanical tweaks to enhance his contact charge, so it’s going to take a group that’s assured in its capacity to transform his swing — and naturally, the buy-in of Murakami himself — to get the type of blockbuster deal some envision.

Quickie: Is there a distinction between tendered and prolonged?

Jay Jaffe: tendered = a participant beneath membership management provided a contract for the following season. prolonged = a participant beneath contract who provides further years to the contract.

Alby: What was Clase considering? The sums concerned appear trivial to somebody making tens of millions.

Jay Jaffe: I feel it’s very doable that what has been uncovered is merely the tip of an iceberg — sufficient to prosecute and to finish his profession, however not each single occasion of wrongdoing. Even when it was, he made a really silly choice that’s going to wind up costing him orders of magnitude extra money.

Bardo Invoice: Dwight Evans: 65 WAR, 2400+ hits, 129 wRC+. He’d be a primary poll HOFer if he turned eligible now for the BBWAA poll, proper? How does he get neglected by the Up to date Period committee for the likes of Mattingly, Delgado, and Dale Murphy?

Jay Jaffe: Dunno about first-ballot however I do imagine he’d be a man who will get to Cooperstown by the tip of his run, not not like a Helton or Rolen (however not fairly as robust in JAWS on account of a decrease peak).

I actually don’t have any *good* reason why Evans has been left off the final two ballots besides that it seems the Corridor and Historic Overview Committee don’t need to let go of the concept Mattingly and Murphy can get in through a stacked committee à la Parker, which isn’t a very good look. I do assume that the latest rule change that makes candidates ineligible to return on the following poll until they obtain no less than 5 out of 16 votes will assist get him on the following poll however he deserved a crack at this one. And all the things I’ve stated right here applies to Lou Whitaker as properly, however with extra WAR/JAWS.

Sam: Am I proper to be anxious that the Pink Sox are usually not going to have efficient methods to spend cash in free company?

Jay Jaffe: Even given their latest fame, I’m going to carry off prejudging their offseason. They do have a few apparent methods to spend cash: retain Alex Bregman, add some manufacturing on the DH/1B finish of the spectrum, and go after some high quality beginning pitching. I feel it is going to be honest to measure what they do relative to that define.

Jacob: Do you’re feeling that Bonds can be elected by this committee and the way lengthy are you able to be on this poll?

Jay Jaffe: I feel it’s unlikely as a result of the Corridor controls who will get on the committees, and final time it selected three very gamers who have been vociferously anti-PED of their day in Frank Thomas, Ryne Sandberg, and Jack Morris. Primarily based on a rule change from earlier this yr, if Bonds (or some other candidate) will get 5 or fewer votes, he can’t be on the 2029 poll, and if that occurs a second time, he’d be completely ineligible.

M: Any QOs you have been stunned by? Which gamers are more likely to settle for them?

Jay Jaffe: The one which stunned me is Woodruff, whom I feel can be the perfect served to simply accept provided that he’s made 23 begins over 3 seasons on account of arm accidents and rehab. I feel Gallen can be well-served to simply accept as properly after such a mediocre season.

Avery: How a lot of a lift do you assume gamers like Salvador Perez, Yadier Molina and Buster Posey will get in corridor of fame voting for being faces of their respective franchises whereas not being enormous outliers statistically amongst catchers? This being versus Russell Martin and Brian McCann who didn’t follow one group, whose candidacies didn’t obtain a lot fanfare, after which who fell unceremoniously fell off the poll. And my actual query: may this find yourself serving to Will Smith in future? I’m in all probability overreacting his 2025, however he actually may find yourself placing numbers and/or longevity much like the three guys I discussed on the high.

Jay Jaffe: they’ll get a little bit of a lift however I don’t think about it is going to be a difference-maker in itself. I don’t see Smith in the identical scenario as a result of for pretty much as good as he’s, as long as he’s a Dodger, he’s all the time going to take a again seat to Shohei, Mookie, Freddie and others. I additionally don’t assume he’ll be at catcher for the whole thing of his profession; his framing has fallen off significantly and the Dodgers have already got a younger inheritor obvious in Speeding; it wouldn’t shock me if Smith is manning an outfield nook someday within the subsequent a number of years.

Visitor: Ke’Bryan Hayes’ defence makes him a top-25 3b-man, whereas Patrick Bailey’s makes him a top-10 catcher. Does the way in which framing is computed overstate total worth, in your opinion?

Jay Jaffe: no. besides on the extremes, a run saved on protection is as invaluable as a run produced on offense.

Scarecrow: Boston desires a high starter.  As an org., they appear to favor velocity.  Would you contemplate Stop to be a precedence goal over groundballers (and sluggish pitchers – each tenth percentile or decrease in velo) Valdez and Suarez?

Jay Jaffe: I feel Fenway Park locations a bit extra of a premium on guys who can generate groundballs, so a man like Stop along with his 36.6% charge isn’t a very good match. I feel Framber Valdez is a a lot better match for that purpose — and he’s solely tenth percentile in common exit velocity, not fastball velocity (his sinker averaged 94.2 mph, forty seventh percentile)

Kevin: Individuals typically rail towards who they assume because the “worst proprietor in baseball,” whoever that’s to them. Which proprietor(s) do you contemplate to be the perfect proprietor(s) in baseball?

Jay Jaffe: leaving apart how they make their cash (barf barf barf) it’s robust to argue towards the Dodgers given their spending and success. I a lot desire house owners who spend aggressively so I’d put the Mets’ Cohen, the Phillies’ Middleton, and the Padres’ Seidler within the higher tier although the latter is provisional given final yr’s messy switch of energy to brother John after Peter’s loss of life. Transferring down the payroll ladder, I feel you’d have to contemplate the Brewers’ Attanasio to be the most effective given the success of the group on his watch.

The one that asks the lunch query: What’s for lunch?

Jay Jaffe: I had a traditional banh mi (floor pork, ham, and pate) and an order of summer time rolls (shrimp and rice vermicelli).

David: Di you assume it’s correct to explain Ohtani as the best of all time? Previous Hoss pitched extra innings in a single season than Ohtani has pitched in his profession – and generally performed shortstop when he wasn’t pitching. After all baseball was a distinct sport then. However how can we describe a recent participant because the GOAT when previous gamers are principally eradicated from the dialog as a result of right this moment’s model of baseball is tougher?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume it’s unreasonable since we’ve by no means seen a participant mix this degree of offense with common pitching obligation towards such high-caliber competitors for so long as Ohtani. it’s honest to quibble with the quantity of the pitching given his accidents, however Previous Hoss ain’t the yardstick, and Hoss couldn’t hit for a heat bucket of spit (73 OPS+ for his profession). Ruth didn’t have a crossover pitching-hitting profession for lengthy and was doing what he did towards a a lot smaller and segregated participant pool. Negro League two-way stars similar to Rogan face quality-of-competition points in such a comparability as properly.

not the lunch man: Ideas on the Cubs? Even assuming they get Imanaga again (both on the QO or a brand new deal), they’re just about operating again a roster that didn’t look gifted sufficient for the playoffs minus their most gifted participant. What do you assume they should do right here?

Jay Jaffe: They want frontline pitching they usually’re going to have a Kyle Tucker-sized gap of their lineup. A reunion with Kyle Schwarber and probably buying and selling Suzuki may assist remedy the offensive challenge with out compromising what was the most effective defenses, so it actually comes right down to fortifying the pitching employees — which goes to take cash.

Jazzrunner: Buster Posey and Thurman Munson have fairly related WARs and their careers have been lower brief maybe 3 or 4 years early,  Munson due to the aircraft crash and Posey as a result of he was burnt out.  They might have collected extra stats as DHs in these years.  Is Posey a shoe in?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume Posey is shoo-in on the primary poll however he’s going to get elected to the Corridor of Fame sooner moderately than later. And I’ve made the Munson/Posey comp one million instances however the Historic Overview Committee hasn’t listened to me.

Vince: How do you’re feeling about Invoice Freehan? 5x GG, 11x AS, WS win, complete profession with DET. Appears to me like he’s one which slipped via the cracks.

Jay Jaffe: Simply had one other expertise of a really bizarre sensation. clearly I’ve been writing for a very long time – over 7 1/2 years at FanGraphs, 13 1/2 since i joined Sports activities Illustrated, and 24 since i began running a blog at Futility Infielder. Generally I can envision the place I used to be once I wrote a sure piece — which house workplace, principally, since I can see myself pulling books off the shelf to test varied sources — and when the years blur collectively it will get complicated. via that newest little bit of no matter sensation it’s (not deja vu), I assumed I might need written the Freehan piece as just lately as 2 years in the past but it surely seems it was already 4 years in the past! Wild.

Jacob: There was a documentary about “Who killed the Montreal Expos” and it lined up multitude of suspects, however throughout your complete documentary, there was no point out of Omar Minaya? Didn’t he make any questionable selections? Whom do you’re feeling killed the group?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t watched it but — I ought to — and sure, he did make some questionable selections, similar to buying and selling Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, AND Grady Sizemore (plus Lee Stevens) for pending free agent Bartolo Colon.

Greater than anything, I blame Jeffrey Loria and Bud Selig for killing the Expos.

WinTwins0410: Jay, have you ever ever written a lot about Dave Righetti? I considered him the opposite day and reviewed his profession and whereas he doesn’t appear Corridor-worthy at first blush, fourth issues stood out to me and I don’t confer with the Fourth of July no-hitter (!): 1) Wow, his profession and particularly his time with the Yanks actually parallels that of Donnie Baseball; 2) He wasn’t a supervisor however was pitching coach for these WS-winning Giants golf equipment; 3) Christina Kahrl in 2011 referenced (https://www.espn.com/weblog/sweetspot/publish/_/id/14104/stars-of-the-forgo…) Dave’s relief-pitching WAR as similar to that of Lee (who had much more saves) and Quiz (who didn’t); and 4) FanGraphs’ Jesse Wolfersberger again in 2011 wrote a neat piece contending that Righetti may coach his pitchers to a greater HR/FB charge (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dave-righetti-lord-of-the-hrfb-rate/). It’s not that I feel Dave is a Corridor of Famer in and of itself, however wow — he had a extra fascinating pitching and training profession than I spotted. Ideas?

Jay Jaffe: He was an excellent pitcher with a really fascinating profession, and also you’re proper, I’ve by no means written a lot about him. There’s a wet day challenge thought.

Ken: Keith Hernandez v. Don Mattingly?

Jay Jaffe: I feel Hernandez is perhaps Hallworthy, and I completely 100% don’t assume Mattingly is.

Ken: I noticed a MLB community piece the place Brian Kenny advocated strongly for Mattingly being a HOFer. Is the repair in?

Jay Jaffe: BK’s obsession with legislation and order comes shining via once more, however he’s bought no bearing on the election course of. That is the Corridor’s ball, they management who will get on the committee.

Insert Witty Identify Right here: Which is worse: the steroid period or the legalized playing period? There’s no manner that legalized playing goes away, until authorities intervention proper? If Clase, a high tier nearer who de-legitimized the sport, each pitch now’s now beneath suspicion and it’s by no means going to go away.

Jay Jaffe: I feel the legalized playing period has the potential to be worse — and I’d put a whole ban on pitch-by-pitch betting — however I’m going to want to see much more proof earlier than I imagine that each pitch is beneath suspicion. Good grief, I feel we’ve bought sufficient darkness in our lives beneath this nightmare of a presidential regime to start out concocting theories a few conspiracy controlling our pastimes as properly.

Ken: Does the Clase/Ortiz prop bets scandal make MLB/Manfred rethink shifting a franchise in Vegas?

Jay Jaffe: hahahahahahhahahahhahahah

Jay Jaffe: no.

Nico’s Nook: Tucker to the Orioles.  Impression bat, makes followers completely happy, lengthens lineup.  Would they should go over market to make it occur?

Jay Jaffe: Tucker can be an excellent match for the Orioles, however no matter what Rubenstein has stated up to now, nothing I’ve seen but from the Orioles throughout his tenure — or extra to the purpose, Mike Elias’ tenure — suggests he’s going to spend Tucker-level cash on a free agent.

Jay Jaffe: show me improper, I’ll tip my cap. However till I see him write that test, he will get no advantage of the doubt (and the identical can be true for some other blustering proprietor, particularly one which begins banging the drum for a wage cap).

Alleghany River: Was shifting O’Neill Cruz to CF a internet optimistic?

Jay Jaffe: It’s manner too early to evaluate that.

Jay Jaffe: I feel it might very properly find yourself a optimistic and it was in all probability the perfect factor. But it surely’s the pirates, what baseline are we measuring towards anyway?

Mike Trout Masks Reproduction: Jay- Lou Whitaker (deservedly!) will get essentially the most consideration for Mid-Late ’80’s Tigers that advantage Corridor consideration…however what about Darrell Evans? He was in all probability undervalued throughout his taking part in time for being an OBP-forward hitter, who didn’t have a excessive batting common. However over 400 homers, a .360 profession OBP and 120 wrc+, with some actually massive seasons in his prime as a 3B suggests somebody who ought to get a more in-depth look, no?

Jay Jaffe: Evans has a JAWS of 48.0, which is respectable however simply twenty second amongst 3B, with Nettles, Boyer, Bell, Bando, Machado, Ramirez, Arenado, and Longoria all forward of him in each carer and pea WAR, and above 50.0 JAWS. I can assemble stronger arguments for all of them than Evans at this level.

Len Lumbers: The present Period Comm iteration appears to be the best-engineered model of itself but – as a number of writers have intimated this month, it’s arrived at some extent the place it can’t solely dispense with undesirables in as little as three cycles, it may possibly additionally funnel votes with no less than some measure of certainty. Hmm. D’you assume the present algorithm may solely exist lengthy sufficient to get previous the PED hump? To borrow Tango’s line in regards to the oversight committee – helpful in concept; in apply its tempo of deliberation is problematic (posthumous recognition [Allen], a misplaced race towards time [Parker], or considerably superior age [Kaat]) – it’ll by no means get all of it proper, it’ll simply repair a few of the blemishes.

Jay Jaffe: I feel that’s what the Corridor hopes. the fact is that primarily based on latest historical past the foundations may find yourself altering earlier than the everlasting ineligibility goes into impact.

Jay Jaffe: okay people, that’s it from me for this week! Thanks for stopping by. Tip your bartenders and waitstaff, keep hydrated, and we’ll strive to do that once more subsequent week.