This postseason, FanGraphs is constant its custom of writing report playing cards for the on-field selections made by playoff managers. Excluding the managers who misplaced within the best-of-three Wild Card Sequence, we cowl each spherical of the playoffs for all eight managers. It’s detailed sufficient that I’ve begun enlisting some assist. Up to now this 12 months, I’ve graded the efforts of A.J. Hinch, Aaron Boone, Craig Counsell, Rob Thomson, and Dan Wilson. Dan Szymborski scrutinized Pat Murphy’s efficiency. Yesterday and at the moment, I’m looking at John Schneider. The Blue Jays performed sufficient video games that we determined to separate his report into two. Michael Baumann will comply with with a assessment of Dave Roberts. It takes a village to get the form of in-depth protection we aspire to offer you.
Our aim is to judge every supervisor by way of course of, not outcomes. For those who herald your finest pitcher to face their finest hitter in an enormous spot, that’s a very good resolution whatever the final result. Attempt a triple steal with the bases loaded solely to have the opposite staff make 4 throwing errors to attain three runs? I’m most likely going to name {that a} blunder regardless that it labored out. Managers do loads of different issues — getting staff buy-in for brand new methods or unconventional bullpen utilization behind closed doorways is a ability I discover significantly helpful — however as I’ve no perception into how that’s completed or how every supervisor differs, I can’t precisely assign grades for it.
I’m additionally purposefully avoiding imprecise qualitative considerations like “trusting your veterans as a result of they’ve been there earlier than.” Playoff protection lovingly focuses on clutch performs by confirmed performers, however guys like Trey Yesavage and Addison Barger had been additionally glorious this October. Overlook trusting your veterans; the playoffs are about trusting your finest gamers. George Springer is vital as a result of he’s nice, not due to the variety of playoff sequence he’s appeared in. There’s nothing inherently good about having been round a very long time; once I’m evaluating selections, “however he’s a veteran” simply doesn’t enter my thought course of.
I’m at all times in search of new analytical wrinkles in critiquing managerial selections. As an illustration, I’ve more and more come to view pitching selections as a trade-off between defending your finest relievers from overexposure and minimizing your starters’ weakest matchups, which signifies that I’m grading managers on a number of axes in each sport. I believe there’s virtually no pitching resolution that’s a real no-brainer lately; there are simply too many competing priorities to make something completely apparent. Meaning I’m going to be much less sure in my analysis of pitching than of hitting, however I’ll attempt to make my confidence stage clear in every case. I tackled the offensive portion of Schneider’s managing yesterday, so now it’s time for the pitching a part of his report card. Let’s get to it, we could?
Pitching: D+
For those who thought Schneider was peripatetic on the hitting facet, wait till you learn this subsequent 4,000 phrases or so. The Blue Jays got here into October with two starters they trusted in Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage, two starters they felt OK about in Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer, and a bullpen that was one of many weakest components of the staff all 12 months regardless of a number of deadline acquisitions. Schneider’s largest puzzle was going to be the right way to piece collectively as many innings as doable from the pitchers in his circle of belief.
To guide off the ALDS, Gausman went till he obtained into huge hassle. The most important hassle conceivable, the truth is: bases loaded, no one out, Aaron Decide on the plate. Gausman received that matchup. He stayed in for 2 straight lefties — Cody Bellinger and Ben Rice — as a result of the Jays bullpen had a scarcity of succesful lefty relievers, and Gausman’s splitter makes him glorious with out the platoon benefit. After Gausman had confronted three superb hitters with the bases loaded and retired two of them (Bellinger notched an RBI stroll), Schneider pulled him for Louis Varland with Giancarlo Stanton due up.
I suppose I get the concept, however one actually complicated half right here is that the Yankees had been heading into one other pocket of lefties. That’s speculated to be Gausman’s area, however Schneider went to Varland anyway. And if you happen to suppose that Varland is a superior choice to Gausman towards Stanton, a ok one that you just’re prepared to abdomen some unhealthy matchups later, why not use Varland towards Decide? I ran these strikes forwards and backwards in my head for some time, and I nonetheless can’t make them line up collectively. I believe the reason being that Stanton has a very good profession line towards Gausman, however that doesn’t fairly add up when you think about that’s not a big pattern, and Decide owns Gausman much more. If Schneider didn’t need Gausman to face Stanton, then why did he face Decide? I’m not sure what resolution I’d have made in Schneider’s sneakers – I’d most likely err on the facet of overusing Gausman, regardless of the success the 2 right-handed Yankee sluggers have had towards him – however I’m fairly certain that I’d have carried out one thing totally different than what he selected.
In any case, that put Toronto’s bullpen in a troublesome spot, with a ton of innings to cowl towards a very good staff within the first sport of the playoffs. It didn’t matter, although; the Jays blew the sport open within the seventh inning, permitting Schneider to make use of whomever he wished. However Schneider wished his guys! It was 10-1 to start out the ninth inning, but he nonetheless introduced in nearer Jeff Hoffman to face Stanton and Jazz Chisholm Jr.. Um, what?
Fortunately, Hoffman wasn’t wanted the subsequent day, as a result of the Toronto offense once more ended the sport early, pushing out to a 12-0 lead after 5 innings. Yesavage additionally flat out dominated; he went twice by way of the order and struck out 11 Yankees. He was clearly on an 18-batters-and-out plan, as a result of he departed promptly after retiring the nine-hole hitter, and the Jays went to a string of their lowest-leverage choices after that. For those who’re questioning how unhealthy the Toronto bullpen was, significantly within the dregs, think about this: The Blue Jays deployed 4 pitchers to cowl the sixth and seventh innings after Yesavage left with one out within the sixth. These 4 pitchers allowed 10 hits out of the 16 batters they confronted, and out of the blue it was 13-7. Schneider had to return up the leverage hierarchy, to Mason Fluharty, Varland, and Seranthony Domínguez. That trio completed the sport uneventfully, however Schneider’s belief within the mop-up squad had additional eroded.
Bieber didn’t have his finest stuff within the potential Sport 3 clincher. That’s a euphemism, actually; he was unhealthy. He struck out solely two, didn’t miss many bats, and regardless of being staked to a 6-1 lead, he didn’t survive the third inning. This was a type of “even the outs are loud” conditions, too; 4 of the primary 5 Yankee batters within the third inning hit the ball 100 mph or tougher, and the one man who didn’t laced a line drive single. Oh yeah – the Jays had already introduced that the subsequent day was going to be a bullpen sport, too, so getting some kind of size out of Bieber was vital. Alas, it didn’t occur.
After a short, unsuccessful cameo by Fluharty within the fourth, Varland entered to face Decide. He promptly gave up a game-tying, three-run homer. Man, Decide is fairly good, and this was an absurd feat. Varland’s pitch was 99.7 mph and 1.2 toes off the plate inside; no participant within the pitch monitoring period had ever gone deep on a pitch that quick and that far inside. Permitting a house run to Decide on a very good pitch? Typically that’ll occur. However then Varland obtained tagged for an additional dinger the subsequent inning, by Chisholm, which put the Yankees in entrance. It was nonetheless solely the fifth, however Schneider had to make use of his less-trusted guys simply to make the mathematics work. Braydon Fisher, Brendon Little, Yariel Rodríguez, and Tommy Nance adopted, and Schneider obtained began on one other development he saved doing all postseason by deliberately strolling Decide with the bases empty. Decide scored on a sacrifice fly two batters later to place the sport away, and I actually don’t like deliberately strolling a man with the bases empty whenever you’re trailing like that. You’ll be able to learn extra on this within the part on the Mariners, as a result of belief me, there have been extra of those, and I ran the mathematics in a separate article there. I assumed it was even a little bit worse right here, for the report.
Varland drew the beginning the subsequent day, his fourth straight look. Schneider had an important sport plan for the primary journey by way of the order, utilizing Fluharty towards a pocket of lefties on the backside of the New York lineup after which rotating by way of his high-leverage arms each time Decide batted. The Jays might need had an unreliable bullpen, however they’d simply sufficient lefties, and the Yankees had sufficient lefty hitters, that they had been in a position to proceed in that vogue for fairly some time, together with one other bases-empty IBB of Decide within the sixth. This one virtually price them, as a result of it left them with a low-leverage righty (Rodríguez) towards Chisholm with the tying run in scoring place, however Chisholm grounded out. Hoffman obtained the ultimate outs to shut out the sequence in a well-managed bullpen sport.
The Jays made two main roster adjustments for the ALCS, including Scherzer and Chris Bassitt instead of two low-leverage relievers. Scherzer was there as a fourth starter, as a result of one other bullpen sport wasn’t within the playing cards. Bassitt, coming back from an IL stint, profiled as a multi-inning reliever. These two gave Schneider far more flexibility in his bullpen utilization. He didn’t want it in Sport 1, although; regardless of dealing with Bryce Miller on brief relaxation, the Toronto offense laid a uncommon egg. Schneider used all of his high guys attempting to maintain the sport inside attain, and for my cash he used all of them completely, however the runs by no means got here.
Sport 2 was principally a wash. When Yesavage and Varland mixed to give up six runs throughout the primary 5 innings, the sport regarded almost over. A number of extra runs towards the midsection of the bullpen, and it was mop-up time, however Schneider had a revelation: Bassitt regarded superb in reduction. He didn’t enable a runner to succeed in, struck out two of the 5 batters he confronted, and added a number of miles an hour to his choices.
In Sport 3, Schneider but once more didn’t have a lot to do. This time, the Jays had been on the correct facet of a lopsided rating, 12-2 by way of six. Bieber went six robust and turned the ball over to the bullpen with an unassailable lead, so Schneider used Fisher and Rodríguez, the final two relievers on the roster, to cowl an inning apiece. Then, surprisingly, he used Fluharty for a platoon benefit within the ninth, which simply seems like a waste to me. Rodríguez couldn’t cowl one other inning? Fluharty got here into a number of video games in key conditions; I don’t like utilizing him right here when the end result wasn’t in query.
Sport 4 was all concerning the offense once more. The Blue Jays scored 5 fast runs to get method forward, letting Schneider journey Scherzer for much longer than anticipated. He lasted 22 batters and 87 pitches, doing his half to get his reliever teammates some relaxation. Amusingly, Fluharty was the primary out of the pen after closing issues down the evening earlier than, and he gave up a stroll and successful to the primary two batters he confronted. It was the third sport out of 4 wherein he’d confronted Eugenio Suárez, a righty, and it could have been the third sport out of 4 towards the lefty-hitting Josh Naylor if not for a substitution the evening earlier than. In any case, familiarity did Fluharty no favors, as Suárez lined an RBI single to proper to make it a 5-2 sport. Luckily for Toronto, Fluharty obtained out of the inning on that play anyway as a result of Naylor was thrown out attempting to advance to 3rd. Even so, Schneider had seen sufficient of Fluharty; the supervisor changed the left-hander with the righty Varland to start out the seventh, regardless that the three Mariners due up bat left-handed.
The Blue Jays added three insurance coverage runs within the subsequent two innings to push their result in 8-2. However Schneider didn’t care; he introduced in Hoffman to pitch the eighth towards the highest of the Seattle order anyway, regardless of the six-run lead. Why? I don’t fully perceive. Then Domínguez obtained the underside of the ninth, which additionally feels wasteful. Schneider would possibly identical to sending his guys into the sport in the event that they heat up, or he would possibly identical to getting them work; this wasn’t the primary time he deployed his nearer in a sport that was already determined, and it wasn’t the final both.
Why do I preserve harping on Schneider utilizing his finest relievers in spots that don’t actually matter? As a result of the subsequent day, a very huge spot got here up: one-run lead, Cal Raleigh batting, backside of the eighth inning. That is the place you need your finest guys pitching. However Hoffman didn’t enter, regardless that we’d seen him within the eighth inning towards Raleigh the evening earlier than. As a substitute, it was Brendon Little, and Little obtained rocked. He gave up a game-tying homer to Raleigh, walked the subsequent two batters, after which departed in favor of Domínguez. Domínguez wasn’t sharp, what with having pitched the evening earlier than and all, and he hit the primary batter he confronted earlier than giving up a grand slam. Utilizing your nearer doesn’t mechanically imply you’ll escape the inning unscathed, however if you happen to’re sending Hoffman right into a six-run sport, you also needs to be sending him right into a one-run sport.
When the sequence shifted again to Toronto for Sport 6, Schneider was decided to right his mistake. This time, the Jays took a 5-0 lead early. After limiting Yesavage to 18 batters earlier within the playoffs, Schneider tried to increase him a 3rd time by way of the lineup. I assumed that was an affordable resolution given the staff’s bullpen difficulties, however it backfired to the tune of a solo shot and a single that led to a different run, slicing the result in 5-2. Subsequent got here Varland, and now the Jays had been up 6-2 with solely two innings left to cowl. Schneider didn’t take any possibilities; regardless that there was a decisive sport the subsequent day, he put Hoffman on the market for a two-inning save. It took 35 pitches, however Hoffman completed the duty.
Bieber regarded extremely shaky to open Sport 7, and I preferred how shortly Schneider gave him the hook. Varland entered – his tenth look in 11 video games, what a monster – and gave up a homer to Raleigh virtually instantly. Amazingly, this wasn’t a case of Raleigh getting too aware of Varland over a protracted sequence; it was the primary time the 2 of them had matched up, the truth is. Schneider would possibly go to Varland at each alternative, however he took pains to combine up his assignments.
The rationale Schneider was snug with a fast name to the bullpen is that he had a lot of beginning pitchers accessible to spherical out his regular complement. All three high-leverage relievers – Varland, Domínguez, and Hoffman – pitched. Bassitt, who had surprisingly been mothballed after his sharp look early within the sequence, delivered a clear inning. Gausman chipped in an inning of his personal on his throw day. That accounted for all 9 innings, and the 4 guys who adopted Varland every had been good, sending the Jays to the World Sequence. The one hiccup was one other bases-empty intentional stroll, however the particulars of this one lined up higher than those towards Decide. I wrote about it right here.
OK, phew! We’ve made it by way of the primary two rounds. All that continues to be is the World Sequence, one other seven-game shootout towards a strong offense. As occurred many occasions in these playoffs, the Toronto lineup began the sequence by making Schneider’s job straightforward. A nine-run sixth inning turned this sport into rubbish time shortly, letting him ease off the fuel. He really did it this time, too; after the sport was not unsure, Fisher, Bassitt, and Eric Lauer dealt with the final three innings. I’m not wild about utilizing Bassitt there; he’s too good relative to the opposite low-leverage arms within the bullpen. Why waste him in a blowout, particularly when you think about he was getting back from harm? Largely, although, issues simply went Toronto’s method so decisively that there weren’t many robust selections.
Sport 2 offered the alternative puzzle. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Gausman had been each extremely sharp, however Gausman surrendered two solo photographs when Schneider tried to push him by way of the Los Angeles order a 3rd time. I assumed it was an affordable resolution, significantly provided that Toronto was so brief on high quality lefty relievers for the Freddie Freeman/Max Muncy part of the lineup, however it simply occurred to work out poorly. Varland relieved him and obtained right into a jam of his personal — bases loaded with one out — immediately. Right here, I like that Schneider tried to make use of Hoffman to stem the tide. Sure, the Jays had been down by two, however they’d six outs left to play with, after which they had been off the subsequent day. The nice relievers hadn’t pitched in Sport 1, so why not see if you happen to can cease the bleeding after which get again within the sport? However Hoffman couldn’t cease the Dodgers, permitting two of the inherited runners to attain, and in any case Yamamoto threw an entire sport and allowed just one run. Hey, can’t win ‘em all.
Sport 3 most likely took a 12 months off of Schneider’s life. Nobody desires to handle an 18-inning sport, a lot much less within the World Sequence. However except for some intentional walks, which I’ll discuss later, I assumed Schneider did an excellent job dealing with the pitching workers. He was on the 18-and-out plan for Scherzer, who gave up two dwelling runs and undoubtedly exited the sport on the proper time. Fluharty obtained overwhelmed by Shohei Ohtani and Freeman – yeah, that’ll occur generally – however Schneider caught with the script, turning it over to Varland after which Domínguez in a decent 5-4 sport. Domínguez had a psychological or command lapse and poured in a pipe shot fastball to start out off Ohtani. Identical to that, the sport was tied and Schneider needed to scramble.
The primary a part of his pivot was Bassitt for the eighth – I believe utilizing Hoffman for a two-inning save was the preliminary plan earlier than the Ohtani dwelling run. Bassitt regarded sharp, however surprisingly, Schneider restricted him to an inning. The highest of the order was due up within the ninth, and never simply anybody can face Ohtani. What’s that, you say? Schneider walked Ohtani each time he batted from right here on out? Oh, uh… Yeah, I most likely would have caught with Bassitt for a little bit longer then. I promise, extra on the walks on the finish of this sport.
Hoffman obtained his two innings in in any case, starting with the ninth. The silly sport wouldn’t finish although. Fisher adopted, after which Lauer, a starter by commerce, got here in for the lengthy haul. He threw 4 2/3 death-defying innings, permitting six baserunners and placing out solely two, however protecting the Dodgers down anyway. This was actual gut-check stuff, a masterful efficiency by Lauer. I additionally credit score Schneider for letting him go so long as he might. Little got here in after Lauer was effectively and actually gassed, and Bieber was even on the point of seem subsequent, however earlier than that got here to go, Freeman led off the underside of the 18th with a walk-off homer.
About these intentional walks: I wrote about them right here. I disliked them significantly and thought that Schneider’s flat refusal to face Ohtani price the Blue Jays by citing the Dodgers’ finest hitters again and again. I’m prepared to imagine that my projection-based methodology doesn’t completely seize how sizzling Ohtani was this explicit evening – however that may be a tiny adjustment. I’m going to attempt to quantify it a bit extra within the offseason, however Schneider’s strikes price the Dodgers one thing like 13 share factors of win likelihood. Even when I flip Ohtani into peak Babe Ruth, the numbers don’t add up. It’s not a matter of how effectively Ohtani was seeing the ball; it’s only a matter of placing baserunners on in a tie sport. It seems like a gimmick. There’s no method that it may very well be proper to stroll three totally different gamers deliberately with the bases empty in a single postseason. Schneider simply likes doing it, the identical method that he likes bunting or going to Hoffman with an enormous lead.
The silver lining of this exhausting marathon was that the subsequent day’s plans wrote themselves. First, Bieber for so long as he might go – that turned out to be 5 1/3 innings — after which Fluharty to get Muncy and escape a jam. The Jays had been up 6-1 by this level, so Bassitt entered to offer bulk innings. Like I stated, I most likely would have used Bassitt for longer the evening earlier than, however contingent on what transpired in actuality, this was a good way to take advantage of his rested standing. Varland obtained the ninth, as a result of he pitches in each sport and Bassitt was understandably drained after back-to-back appearances.
Sport 5, the final one in Los Angeles, confirmed Schneider at his finest. The Jays obtained a completely dominant efficiency out of Yesavage, 12 strikeouts in seven robust innings. With a still-tired bullpen, Schneider gave Yesavage rope, and he saved profiting from it. A 1-2-3 sixth towards Ohtani, Will Smith, and Mookie Betts purchased him an opportunity to start out the seventh, and when the Blue Jays offense pushed the result in 5-1, Yesavage obtained to pitch all the inning. Then it was Domínguez and Hoffman for the final two innings. I usually wouldn’t like utilizing your two finest bullpen arms towards the opponents’ finest gamers in such a low-leverage spot, however the different relievers had been all gassed too, the subsequent day was an off day, and it was one of many last three video games of the 12 months. This looks like the very best time to present your nearer a five-run “save” alternative.
Sport 6 lastly featured an intentional stroll I’m on board with. With two outs, Ohtani batted within the high of the third in a scoreless tie. There was a runner on second with first base open, so Schneider walked Ohtani, a transfer I’d make 100% of the time. Smith, Freeman, and Betts adopted up by reaching consecutively, giving the Dodgers a 3-0 lead they’d by no means relinquish. Dangerous final result, however good course of in my view. The Dodgers have a ton of stars, and generally these guys are going to get hits. It was nonetheless a sensible IBB.
Apparently, Schneider appeared to lose religion within the tactic after that one. When Ohtani batted with one out and none on within the fifth, a spot wherein Schneider had often referred to as for an intentional stroll earlier within the playoffs, Gausman confronted him and retired him. Ohtani batted once more with nobody on and one out within the eighth; Fluharty entered and Ohtani doubled, although the Dodgers didn’t rating. The remainder of the bullpen administration went mainly as anticipated, and Schneider even saved Hoffman for Sport 7 by utilizing Bassitt to wash up within the ninth. I preferred that transfer, too.
It was Scherzer’s flip to start out Sport 7, and it was additionally all arms on deck. That meant 18 batters and a agency handshake for Scherzer, and in an indication that it was completely the correct transfer, even Mad Max didn’t argue along with his elimination. Varland got here in towards Ohtani, a transfer that I completely beloved, as a result of Schneider had overexposed Fluharty towards Ohtani and didn’t wish to give him extra of the identical look. Schneider was constantly glorious when it got here to mixing up batter/pitcher matchups, the truth is, the perfect I noticed out of each supervisor I reviewed this postseason.
I assume I ought to level out an exception to show the rule. The following pitcher into the sport after Varland was Bassitt. I don’t love utilizing a transformed starter coming back from harm on back-to-back days as a Plan A. It’s one factor to do it when it’s important to due to an 18-inning sport, and one other fully to plan on it. Even worse, Bassitt confronted all of the batters he had the earlier evening: Muncy, Tommy Edman, and Enrique Hernández. They accounted for 2 singles and a sacrifice fly. That’s hardly predestined – generally you face the identical man twice and he strikes out each occasions — however for a supervisor who principally protected his guys from overexposure, this was a uncommon misstep.
The remainder of Schneider’s plan was strong; it simply didn’t survive contact with the enemy. He referred to as on Yesavage to get 5 outs; the rookie did, however he additionally surrendered a solo shot to Muncy that made it a one-run sport. A well-rested Hoffman got here in to attempt for a four-out save to safe the Jays their first World Sequence in 32 years. As a substitute, he gave up a game-tying blast to Miguel Rojas, of all folks. Notably, Schneider didn’t deliberately stroll Ohtani after that, and Hoffman retired him. However the Jays stopped scoring, and after Bieber gave up a homer to Smith within the eleventh, the Dodgers had been back-to-back champions.
Despite the fact that it was a magical playoff run for the Blue Jays, I’m certain that followers really feel pissed off. The Jays performed 18 video games, and by my rely, they went 8-2 in video games the place one staff clearly outplayed the opposite. They went 2-6 in shut video games, together with 0-3 within the World Sequence. Honest or not, Schneider goes to take a number of the blame for that, and actually, I believe that’s truthful.
Not each transfer he made was a head-scratcher. In actual fact, I preferred a number of Schneider’s selections. He has an important sense of how a lot leash to present his starters. He labored platoon matchups with out overtaxing his most well-liked lefty, used his pitchers’ splitters to their finest benefit, and did all of that with out enjoying into unhealthy batter/pitcher matchups greater than he wanted to. He additionally made a sequence of strikes I didn’t like. He was too aggressive along with his nearer, he by no means met an intentional stroll he didn’t like, and he simply usually needed to be doing one thing always.
That’s a unified criticism throughout each his pitching and hitting selections. I really suppose that Schneider has a very good plan for tons of various eventualities, which places him forward of lots of the managers I’ve graded in recent times. I simply didn’t like the necessity to have an effect on the sport from the dugout. Bunts and intentional walks are finest used extraordinarily hardly ever. Giving up free outs or free baserunners is so clearly unhealthy that it’s best to suppose twice and even thrice earlier than calling for them. I don’t suppose Schneider had the requisite warning there. If the Jays go on one other run like this, I’d be stunned to see both tactic characteristic so closely; I assumed they contributed to a number of the robust losses and virtually by no means had been the distinction within the huge wins.