Election Season: Bonds and Clemens Lead the Modern Baseball Poll

The champagne and tears have barely dried within the wake of this yr’s instant-classic World Collection, however election season is already upon us. On Monday, the Nationwide Baseball Corridor of Fame formally unveiled the 2026 Modern Baseball Period Committee poll, an eight-man slate masking gamers who made their biggest impression on the sport from 1980 to the current and whose eligibility on the BBWAA poll has lapsed. For the second yr in a row, the Corridor stole its personal thunder, as an article within the Winter 2025 quantity of its bimonthly Reminiscences and Desires journal revealed the identities of the eight candidates previous to the official announcement. The combo contains some — however not all — of the controversial characters who’ve slipped off the writers’ poll in recent times, together with Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, in addition to a pair surprises. This cycle additionally marks the primary utility of a brand new rule that might form future elections.

Assembled by the Historic Overview Committee, an 11-person group of senior BBWAA members, the poll contains Bonds, Clemens, and fellow holdovers Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy, in addition to newcomers Carlos Delgado, Jeff Kent, Gary Sheffield, and Fernando Valenzuela. As with every Corridor election, this one requires 75% from the voters to realize entry. On this case, the panel — whose members received’t be revealed till a lot nearer to election time — will encompass Corridor of Famers, executives, and media members/historians, every of whom might tab as much as three candidates after they meet on Sunday, December 7, on the Winter Conferences in Orlando. Anybody elected can be inducted alongside these elected by the BBWAA (whose personal poll can be launched on November 17) on July 26, 2026 in Cooperstown. Within the weeks earlier than that, I’ll cowl every candidate’s case in depth right here at FanGraphs.

That is the fourth poll for the reason that Corridor of Fame reconfigured its Period Committee system right into a triennial format in April 2022, after a bumper crop of six honorees was elected by the Early Baseball and Golden Days Period Committees the earlier December. The present format splits the pool of potential candidates into two timeframes: those that made their biggest impression on the sport earlier than 1980 (Traditional Baseball Period), together with Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black gamers, and those that made their biggest impression from 1980 to the current day (Modern Baseball Period). The Modern group is additional cut up into two ballots, one for gamers whose eligibility on BBWAA ballots has lapsed (Fred McGriff was elected in December 2022), and one for managers, executives, and umpires (Jim Leyland was elected in December 2023). Non-players from the Traditional timeframe are lumped in with gamers, which doesn’t assure illustration on the ultimate poll.

The 2022 reconfiguration additionally trimmed the variety of candidates per cycle from 10 to eight, making each Period Committee poll that rather more notable for its omissions in addition to its inclusions. Notably with this yr’s rule change, this can be one thing for Corridor screens to get used to. Beneath the brand new rule, beginning with this cycle, candidates who don’t obtain at the very least 5 out of 16 attainable votes can be ineligible to seem on the following poll three years later, when that pool of candidates is taken into account once more. Those that don’t obtain at the very least 5 of 16 votes on a number of Period Committee ballots will not be eligible for future consideration, interval.

As I famous in March, the primary a part of that change is an inexpensive response to an enormous backlog of candidates who typically come from three swimming pools: those that bought quick shrift within the years earlier than voters started incorporating superior statistics corresponding to OPS+, ERA+, WAR, and JAWS into their deliberations; those that have been linked to performance-enhancing drug utilization and lingered on the poll regardless of statistics and accomplishments that will have assured them swift elections with out that baggage; and those that have been overshadowed on the poll by PED-linked candidates, generally to the purpose of falling off after a single look as a result of 5 P.c Rule.

In principle, the rule change may permit for a bigger group of candidates to get a shot at election. Nonetheless, the second a part of that change — everlasting ineligibility — is unnecessarily heavy-handed, and never solely as a result of it will possibly punish a candidate merely for touchdown on a poll on the incorrect time. As first documented by Invoice James in The Politics of Glory (1994) after which explored in my very own e book, The Cooperstown Casebook (2017) and my subsequent protection, the make-up of a committee’s membership can skew the voting outcomes and provides off the looks of favoritism or cronyism. Notably in recent times, the Corridor has amply demonstrated its affect on outcomes. Generally it shares a committee with a number of former teammates, managers and executives prone to help a well-liked candidate (the current elections of Harold Baines and Dave Parker come to thoughts), and generally it stacks the deck with acquainted antagonists. Former gamers union chief Marvin Miller was stymied for many years by committees chockfull of executives who have been on the administration facet throughout the Reserve Clause period or throughout baseball’s late-Nineteen Eighties collusion scandal; he wasn’t elected till the 2020 Fashionable Baseball Period Committee poll — in opposition to his personal needs — about seven years after his demise.

Three years in the past, the Corridor chosen Jack Morris, Ryne Sandberg, and Frank Thomas — three of the period’s most outspoken gamers with reference to PEDs — for the committee. It was unimaginable to not learn their participation as a function pitch designed to knock the candidacies of Bonds and Clemens down, and that’s precisely what occurred. The pair obtained fewer than 4 votes apiece (as did two different candidates, Albert Belle and the PED-linked Rafael Palmeiro); by customized, the precise totals beneath a sure threshold aren’t publicly revealed. The prospect of a equally engineered committee that might punt Bonds and Clemens into oblivion after an identical outcome this time round looms massive. That may be an outrage given that every obtained over 50% of the vote from the writers six instances and over 60% of the vote 3 times, as there’s merely no precedent for completely excluding such extensively supported and in any other case eligible candidates from consideration.

Under is a sortable desk of 28 candidates that features each participant really on this poll; each participant from the 2017–23 Period Committee ballots who remains to be eligible for this era; a handful of beginning pitchers from the Modern interval with fairly strong circumstances primarily based on S-JAWS, notably given the dearth of beginning pitchers elected from the previous 50 years; and a handful of different candidates with a JAWS of at the very least 50. The default sorting used for the desk is the Corridor of Fame Monitor rating, the place 100 signifies “an excellent risk” and 130 “a digital cinch.”

Based mostly on their HOFM scores, this poll contains solely seven of the highest 12 candidates from the pool, the place three years in the past, eight out of the highest 11 made the reduce. The brand new slate is even weaker by JAWS — or fairly J+, the margin between a participant’s JAWS and the usual at his place – as simply three out of the highest 21 from this pool made the poll, in comparison with 4 of the highest 20 final time. Kind the desk by both JAWS or J+ and you’ll see how few alternatives for election these beneath Bonds and Clemens have obtained from the Period Committee course of. That’s not progress, to say the least.

Bonds, the all-time dwelling run chief and a seven-time MVP, and Clemens, a 300-game winner and seven-time Cy Younger winner, are by far probably the most statistically certified candidates by any of the aforementioned measures, in addition to the 2 who got here closest to election by the writers. Their PED connections date to the period earlier than Main League Baseball and the gamers’ union put a testing-and-penalty program in place, however whereas they started trending towards election after former commissioner Bud Selig — who oversaw the sport’s belated response to the inflow of steroids — was elected in 2017, Corridor vice chairman Joe Morgan overtly lobbied voters to not elect any PED-linked candidates, thwarting their progress.

Mattingly and Murphy are a pair of former MVPs (the latter a two-time MVP) and a number of Gold Glove winners whose careers have been curtailed by accidents. Each undertaking the type of healthful, scandal-free picture that the Corridor would like to harness. Together with the notion of their conventional accomplishments (as summarized by the HOFM scores), that helps to clarify why they preserve getting possibilities regardless of meager help from voters previous to 2023, to not point out their flimsy circumstances on the superior statistical entrance.

Among the many first-timers, Kent and Sheffield aged off the BBWAA poll for the reason that final time round. Kent performed with Bonds on the Giants from 1997–2002, and received an MVP in 2000, however the clubhouse was hardly large enough for the 2 of them. Although he set the file for many dwelling runs by a second baseman (351 out of 377 for his profession), modest on-base percentages and subpar defensive metrics yielded a case that is still unremarkable from a complicated stat POV. Between that, the ever-present crowd on the poll, and prickly conduct towards the media — which, to be truthful, typically needed him to speak about Bonds — he didn’t attain 20% till 2020, his seventh yr on the poll, however rallied to 46.5% in his Tenth yr. Given his PED-free popularity, he is perhaps this poll’s finest wager for election.

Sheffield, who clubbed 509 profession dwelling runs, was one of many heaviest hitters and most misunderstood gamers of his time, relationship again to the way in which he was mishandled by the Brewers on the outset of his profession. Controversies — a lot of which concerned his contract state of affairs — adopted wherever he went. Most notably, he was linked to the BALCO scandal attributable to his connection to Bonds, with whom he briefly skilled, however by all accounts their relationship crumbled earlier than Sheffield may wind up in deeper water. Even with defensive metrics so dreadful they appear hyperbolic, his superior statistical case is stronger than Kent’s, and he fared higher among the many writers. Whereas he didn’t break 15% throughout his first 5 years on the poll, his Tenth-year share (63.9%) is greater than another PED-linked participant in addition to Bonds and Clemens.

Of the 2 different newcomers, Valenzuela and Delgado, neither lasted lengthy on the writers’ poll, so their presence right here could possibly be learn as a optimistic signal… if there weren’t already stronger candidates in an identical place. After a quick cup of espresso as a 19-year-old in 1980, Valenzuela burst upon the scene within the strike-shortened ’81 season, successful the NL Rookie of the 12 months and Cy Younger awards whereas serving to the Dodgers to their first championship in 16 years. Greater than that, he turned a cultural phenomenon, as Fernandomania remodeled baseball’s panorama by drawing droves of Latin American followers to the sport, which notably resonated in a Los Angeles nonetheless therapeutic from the injuries attributable to the eviction of almost 2,000 Mexican American households to assemble Dodger Stadium. Whereas he had just a few different nice seasons for the Dodgers after 1981, his arm was overtaxed; the final decade of his profession was largely a grind attributable to accidents, and he slipped off the BBWAA poll after simply two tries. After his profession, he moved as much as the Dodgers’ Spanish-language broadcast sales space, and was nonetheless working in that capability till he died in October 2024, simply shy of his sixty fourth birthday. I’m on file as believing that Valenzuela’s hybrid profession as a participant, broadcaster, and international ambassador is healthier acknowledged within the context of the Buck O’Neil Lifetime Achievement Award, which was created in 2008. For as iconic as he’s — to say nothing of the truth that he’s a private favourite — he feels misplaced right here.

Delgado made simply two All-Star groups throughout his profession however clubbed 473 homers, the third-highest whole of any non-PED-linked participant outdoors the Corridor behind Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera, neither of whom is but eligible for election. Delgado was the conscientious slugger. In an age when most athletes shirk political stances for concern of narrowing their enchantment, he was unafraid to protest in opposition to the conflict in Iraq, publicly opposed the US Navy utilizing a part of his native Puerto Rico for bombing apply, and refused to undergo the motions throughout the post-9/11 ritual of “God Bless America” at Yankee Stadium and elsewhere. He was misplaced within the shuffle on the 2015 poll, receiving lower than 5%, however wasn’t eligible for this course of till his 10-year window would have run out. He’s in all probability bought zero shot at election, however his story deserves to be retold.

With reference to gamers who went one-and carried out, Johan Santana received’t be eligible till the 2029 Modern poll, barring one other reconfiguration of the method. Even given the enchantment of these candidates — notably on the superior statistical entrance – no person ought to be holding their breaths, as a result of the historical past of one-and-dones who landed on Period Committee ballots is a brief one. Ted Simmons made three such ballots earlier than lastly being elected on the 2020 Fashionable Baseball poll, however Whitaker, who obtained 37.5% that very same yr, has but to return. Carter and Clark, in an identical boat to Delgado, each sank and not using a hint on BBWAA ballots however bought a few appears on As we speak’s Sport ballots attributable to a shallower pool of candidates. In that gentle, the glass-half-full view of Delgado’s inclusion is that it bodes nicely for equally ignored candidates sooner or later. The glass-half-empty view is that there are stronger Modern candidates from the one-and-done pool who’ve by no means gotten one other look, although some corresponding to Brown (who wound up within the Mitchell Report) and Lofton (who allegedly despatched sexually express photographs of his physique to a feminine worker) have points which will dim the passion of the Corridor (and the HOC) to place them up for election.

To those eyes, it could have been higher to see Whitaker, whose JAWS case is stronger than any of the opposite one-and-dones, get one other shot earlier than Delgado or any of the aforementioned. Likewise in relation to Evans, who lasted simply three years on the poll however fared even higher than Whitaker in 2020 (50%) and appears a lot stronger in JAWS than candidates who lingered on the poll for 15 years, corresponding to Mattingly and Murphy.

It’s not exhausting to grasp why McGwire, Palmeiro, and Sosa aren’t right here, whereas the omission of Schilling — who repeatedly sabotaged his candidacy in unprecedented vogue (I saved all of the receipts) and even tried to get himself dropped from the 2022 BBWAA poll after a number of voters publicly indicated a need to rescind their ’21 votes primarily based on his help for the January 6 rebellion try by supporters of Donald Trump — is a welcome respite. So we’ve bought that going for us, which is sweet, although Schilling’s strong displaying on the 2023 poll suggests he could possibly be included subsequent time if different candidates fall sufferer to the brand new threshold rule.

A man may write a e book concerning the omissions. Even so, the eight candidates we do have, together with the upcoming candidates on the writers’ poll, will command sufficient consideration over the following a number of weeks to maintain us a lot busy. Keep tuned.