The Jays Are Dealing with Peak Dodgers

Relating to this World Sequence, figuring out which crew is the favourite and which is the underdog is a reasonably simple train. The Blue Jays received another recreation in the course of the common season than the Dodgers did, however Dodger Blue has tended to be strongly favored over Labatt Blue. The Vegas odds for the Dodgers opened at -215, implying a greater than two-in-three likelihood of a Los Angeles championship; per the analysis of CakesRacer522 on Reddit, solely the 2019 Astros began off with higher odds. For our half, the FanGraphs World Sequence odds had been practically as lopsided going into the sequence, projecting a 66.3% likelihood of the Dodgers prevailing. The ZiPS projections weren’t fairly as bullish, however the laptop’s 60/40 break up isn’t quiet a coin flip. The Dodgers additionally spend cash like they’ve their very own foreign money, and received the World Sequence in each 2020 and 2024, whereas the Jays, although themselves a prime 5 payroll crew, haven’t sniffed the Fall Basic in additional than 30 years.

So are the Blue Jays doomed? That’s a preposterous query in a recreation as coin-flippy as baseball tends to be; in any case, if the Dodgers had been fated to win, the projections would sit at 100%, not 68% or 66% or 60%. That mentioned, if the Blue Jays do come out forward, it’ll be an particularly massive plaudit, as a result of they’re not simply dealing with the 2025 Dodgers, they’re dealing with the very best model of the 2025 Dodgers.

As is their wont, the Dodgers suffered greater than their share of accidents in 2025. As of mid-September, I had them shedding the third-most potential wins as a result of harm within the majors. In 2024, they had been the “champions” of this unhappy class. Final winter, the Dodgers spent practically $400 million on free brokers, most notably Blake Snell, Teoscar Hernández, and Tanner Scott, after having signed Shohei Ohtani the prior offseason. It fueled some fairly loopy projections earlier than the 2025 season, such that the 98 wins forecast by ZiPS truly received a number of pushback for being too unfavorable concerning the crew’s hopes. However as I mentioned earlier than Opening Day, the Dodgers are so good that they’re on the level the place signing nice gamers comes with more and more diminishing returns, as a result of these guys are protecting for a great variety of plate appearances and innings that had been already significantly better than alternative degree. Certainly, the crew’s greatest enchancment — not less than as ZiPS noticed it — was in making their flooring absurdly excessive quite than their ceiling.

With solely a single beginning pitcher (Yoshinobu Yamamoto) throwing sufficient innings to qualify for the ERA title and no one else even coming shut, that depth got here in helpful. Of the crew’s 5 greatest projected beginning pitchers — Yamamoto, Snell, Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, and Clayton Kershaw — solely Yamamoto was basically wholesome for your complete season. Ohtani didn’t debut as pitcher till June, and didn’t throw greater than 60 pitches in a recreation till mid-August. Shoulder accidents restricted Snell to 11 begins and Glasnow to 18, and Kershaw missed the primary six weeks of the season. However these guys all made efficient returns, serving to the Dodgers to carry off the Padres in September and win the NL West, and the Blue Jays now have the misfortune of dealing with the Dodgers whereas the latter’s meant rotation is on the mound quite than the injured checklist. As for the bullpen, they nonetheless have quite a few accidents, however Roki Sasaki’s return has helped make the Dodger reduction corps about as stable because it has been at some other level this season.

Los Angeles’ offense didn’t take practically as many harm hits in the course of the common season, and with Will Smith wholesome, the Dodgers have your complete band again collectively. Counting lineups versus lefty and righty starters individually, supervisor Dave Roberts has written out 152 distinctive batting orders throughout the common season and the playoffs this yr. Since ZiPS has a fundamental lineup simulator for questions like these, I ran the present runs-per-game projections for all 152 of these batting orders, highlighting the batting order the Dodgers used for the primary two video games of the World Sequence in blue:

In different phrases, the Dodgers are in place to throw what is basically their most harmful lineup at Toronto’s group of right-handed beginning pitchers (barring an emergency Eric Lauer begin). ZiPS can be barely happier with Hyeseong Kim within the lineup (doubtless in heart discipline with Andy Pages shifting to left), however given how shut it’s, I can completely perceive not eager to threat the vengeful wrath of the playoff gods by not taking part in Enrique Hernández as a lot as potential.

Mix the crew getting its ultimate rotation and an almost ultimate lineup, and ZiPS thinks that this model of the Dodgers isn’t a 93-win crew (the membership’s common season wins) or a 95-win crew (its Pythagorean win complete), however a 104-win crew, even with a comparatively weak bullpen. If the Dodgers are the ultimate boss for the Blue Jays, they’re now of their last type, and Nobuo Uematsu is cueing within the refrain. And if the Blue Jays are the crew that finally ends up with the champagne-soaked uniforms, the victory can be all of the sweeter for having come towards the very best model of their opponent potential. In spite of everything, no one would bear in mind the story of David dealing with off towards Barely Taller David.