This October, the biggest-spending, best-run franchises in baseball have been flexing their muscular tissues. Living proof: The workforce with the biggest TV viewers within the sport, one with a monopoly on a whole nation’s fandom and an enormous payroll to match, a workforce that takes over opposing stadiums on “highway journeys” — that workforce is headlining the World Sequence. There, on the most important stage within the sport, they’ll tackle the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Oh, you thought the Toronto Blue Jays have been David going through the Dodgers’ Goliath? Get out of right here. The Jays are a Goliath, too. They’ve a prime 5 payroll, similar to the Dodgers. Of the 9 hitters, 4 starters, and three relievers I count on to play the most important roles for Toronto this sequence, simply 4 are homegrown. They’ve crammed within the gaps with canny additions in free company and made glorious trades to bolster their roster even additional. Their ace and their leadoff hitter have been each high-profile free brokers. They’ve actually Max Scherzer, the embodiment of a well-paid veteran.
That’s to not say that Los Angeles is punching up right here. The Dodgers’ finest gamers want little introduction. Shohei Ohtani. Mookie Betts. Freddie Freeman. Blake Snell. I might preserve writing one-name sentences for fairly some time earlier than I ran out of stars to focus on. Certain, all of Canada roots for the Jays, however all of Japan roots for the Dodgers, and Japan is thrice as massive by inhabitants. California is the dimensions of Canada, for that matter, and there are a number of Dodgers followers there, too. Actually, the Dodgers are a good larger Goliath than the Jays, however that doesn’t make Toronto any much less of a big-market membership.
In the event you like baseball, you’re going to love this sequence. Each of those groups are mannequin franchises. They spend cash to earn cash, they usually take placing the most effective workforce on the sector that they’ll severely. They construct their roster in keeping with guiding ideas, however they’re hardly simply plugging numbers right into a spreadsheet and blindly going from there. The Jays worth protection extremely, they usually’ve adjusted their workforce round it. They’re keen to make massive trades for the blokes they need, they usually’re additionally aggressive about maintaining their finest gamers on the town through contract extensions. For his or her half, the Dodgers develop simply in addition to they signal, they usually’re fairly dang good at signing. They’ve among the best farm programs in baseball regardless of incessantly buying and selling from that group to amass good main leaguers. And glorious org-wide improvement signifies that pitchers typically enhance in Los Angeles, although I suppose I must also acknowledge that they’ve gotten damage a very good bit, too.
Don’t fear, although. I’m not going to attempt to make a whole World Sequence preview out of fawning reward for 2 well-run organizations. I’m certain you’ve already learn that article elsewhere, in reality; it’s simply too tempting of a throughline to disregard. However the boardrooms, coffers, and draft courses of those organizations aren’t the main target right here. The Blue Jays and the Dodgers are about to face off in an enchanting seven-game sequence. They’re glorious matches for one another: strengths going through off towards strengths, weaknesses mirroring weaknesses, and no straightforward solutions wherever. Let me take you on a tour by means of the spots on this matchup the place there are, to make use of the sport theoretical time period, no dominant methods.
The highest of the Dodgers order is essentially the most well-known a part of the workforce, and with good purpose. It’s both three MVPs in a row or three out of 4, relying on how they stack it up for platoon matchups, and regardless that Ohtani is a two-way participant, his newest, best feats have skewed to the hitting aspect. This fall, although, Los Angeles is successful through run prevention, not run scoring, in order that’s the place we’ll begin. As a result of after years of getting their fastidiously designed rotation crumble resulting from accidents lengthy earlier than October, the Dodgers received their finest 4 guys wholesome suddenly, and the outcomes have been devastating.
Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Ohtani have mixed for 10 begins within the playoffs. Their combination ERA is a “hey dude, are you certain you checked this text for typos”-inspiring 1.40. They’ve a 2.00 FIP, a 2.09 xERA, and a 2.39 xFIP. They’ve essentially the most innings pitched by a mile, even forward of groups which have performed extra video games than them. They’re putting out greater than a 3rd of the batters they face. “Why don’t they only make the entire rotation out of aces?” is meant to be a joking rhetorical query, however apparently nobody advised Andrew Friedman that.
The Jays’ hitters is perhaps the perfect foil for that group, although. They scored a ton of runs this 12 months and have poured on the offense within the playoffs, notably on the ability entrance. They’ve essentially the most homers, essentially the most doubles, the best slugging share, and one single solitary stolen base. They’re barely putting out, which makes all that energy much more spectacular. They’re trying to slug their option to success, they usually haven’t needed to sacrifice a lot to do it. The headlong collision between Toronto’s homer-seeking boppers and Los Angeles’ bat-missing aces ought to make for excellent theater.
Snell has been the most effective pitcher within the playoffs, however he’ll have his work reduce out for him towards an overwhelmingly right-handed Blue Jays lineup. The final time Toronto confronted a lefty within the playoffs, they introduced seven righties, together with their prime 4 hitters. Virtually all of Toronto’s righties excel towards changeups, with the notable exception of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Snell desires to throw his changeup early and sometimes to righties. Right here comes our first robust resolution.
Snell might stick with his regular plan, throwing changeups within the zone to get forward within the depend after which bouncing them to complete hitters off. However the Jays’ righties are among the best changeup-hitting teams in baseball. They make a ton of contact once they swing – the second most within the majors. And that contact is loud – they’ve the best xSLG and the third-highest barrel charge towards lefty changeups.
Ought to Snell abandon his changeup? Absolutely not. However that pitch has been a key to his newfound capability to go deep into video games, and he’ll have to contemplate how a lot he makes use of it early within the depend. And not using a changeup to rapidly neutralize right-handed hitters, he’s left together with his outdated playbook of fastballs excessive and breaking balls low, many exterior of the strike zone. However that model of Snell typically solely threw 5 innings a begin. So what is going to or not it’s? Changeups thrown by means of hostile airspace or nibbling in direction of a too-brief outing? I can’t inform you what Snell ought to do, however I’m excited to search out out what he and the Dodgers assume.
The lineup Snell faces isn’t set in stone. Bo Bichette, one of many drivers of Toronto’s offense for many of the season, has missed greater than a month after spraining his PCL in a collision on the plate in September. He’s on the World Sequence roster, to DH and maybe even to play the sector, although I believe a DH project is the probably final result, and his presence opens up new choices (or potential problems) for John Schneider. George Springer has been DHing all through the playoffs, and actually all through many of the common season. There’s no query that he’ll slide to the outfield ought to Bichette should DH; the query, as a substitute, is who the odd man out might be. Fortunately for the Jays, they’ve an abundance of cheap platoon choices, so I count on to see Addison Barger on the bench towards lefties and a rotation that sends Isiah Kiner-Falefa to the bench towards righties.
Nonetheless the lineup shapes up, the Blue Jays are going to face an attention-grabbing dilemma towards each pitcher, not simply Snell. Their offensive method features a ton of extra-base hits and few strikeouts, and to perform these two issues, Toronto swings early and sometimes. Solely three groups noticed fewer pitches per plate look this 12 months, they usually’re particularly aggressive within the strike zone. Sticking with that identification is smart, however it additionally presents a transparent draw back: swinging earlier goes to make it simpler for Dodgers starters to go deep into the sport.
The Dodgers bullpen is by far the weakest a part of the workforce. It’s too simplistic to say that Dave Roberts’ whole job this sequence might be to maximise the share of innings his starters cowl, however that’s the fundamental process in entrance of him. The issue is in attaining it, not in defining it. I’ve simplified an excessive amount of, although, as a result of that bullpen is extra like two models: a bunch of fellows who’ve gotten hit round very laborious, and Roki Sasaki, fire-breathing unicorn.
Excluding Sasaki and one look by Glasnow, Dodgers relievers have posted a 7.00 ERA this October, with as many walks as strikeouts. They’ve shuffled totally different gamers by means of, however the combination bullpen has been a multitude irrespective of who’s in what function. Then there’s Sasaki, the transformed starter who appears to be like like he was born to shut video games. He’s thrown eight innings in aid, as many as the subsequent two Dodgers relievers mixed. He’s been excellent, overpowering opponents to the tune of a 1.13 ERA and a couple of.39 FIP. The additional velocity he’s picked up in a short-burst function has additionally modified his fastball form; he’s getting extra rise and fewer run, which takes the heater out of the dead-zone form it beforehand occupied. Between that and his capability to make use of solely fastballs and his wipeout splitter, he’s regarded dominant. Roberts has handled him as an computerized zero, and he’s mainly been proper each time.
It certain sounds tempting to have an computerized zero, however Sasaki in all probability can’t be prolonged indefinitely; he’s by no means pitched on this function earlier than, he’s had recurring harm issues, and hitters modify as they see a brand new pitcher extra occasions. Roberts might want to get Sasaki into as many key moments on this sequence as potential, however he’s going to be tempted to make use of him for less-key moments due to how shaky the remainder of the bullpen is. Even with the large workloads the starters have been producing this October, Sasaki is dealing with an enormous share of the entire bullpen innings. There’s no approach he can preserve that up if there are extra innings to cowl, which implies Roberts will incessantly have to decide on between over-extending Sasaki and over-exposing the remainder of the ‘pen.
The best way Roberts divides time between his relievers is attention-grabbing, however a extra necessary variable is what number of innings they should cowl. One key driver of that workload: the split-second selections that Jays hitters will face towards Dodgers starters. A seven-pitch inning will really feel particularly demoralizing if it means extra Snell (or any of the 4 starters, actually) on the finish of the sport. That’s to not say the answer is swinging much less typically. These early swings aren’t nearly pitch counts. Actually, they’re particularly not about pitch counts. They’re about discovering good pitches to hit, early within the depend, and making one thing occur. Attain two strikes, and also you’re going to have a nasty time in as we speak’s majors. The Jays solved that drawback by entering into two-strike counts much less typically than all however two groups. In different phrases, as a substitute of attempting to alter the “per plate look” a part of pitches per plate look, the best way they hope to put on the Dodgers down is by getting extra plate appearances.
There’s an attention-grabbing cat-and-mouse sport right here. One of many methods the Dodgers rotation chewed up the Brewers offense is by getting forward within the depend, which helped them rack up strikeouts and in addition pitch deep into video games. Operating the identical plan again towards the Jays feels dangerous. Do you need to be attacking the strike zone with Vladdy within the batter’s field? The pure adjustment is to throw extra secondaries and go away the strike zone extra incessantly early within the depend. However the Jays could make changes of their very own. Swing much less typically, and the Dodgers starters would possibly fall behind within the depend way more typically than they did within the NLCS.
You possibly can think about the degrees to this. If the Jays hitters turn out to be extra passive, the subsequent step for the Dodgers is attacking the zone aggressively. That performs proper into Toronto’s strengths, although, and so perhaps they need to revert to their regular, strike-hunting methods. On and on it may well go; there’s no dominant technique, no apparent selection, simply glorious pitchers and hitters attempting to outsmart and out-execute one another.
If Toronto succeeds in avoiding two-strike counts, certainly one of two issues will occur. First, the Jays would possibly simply slug a ton of residence runs. Dodger Stadium is the most effective place within the majors for righties to hit residence runs, and Rogers Centre is pleasant to righties as effectively. But when “simply hit a bunch of residence runs” was that straightforward, extra groups would have carried out it. If the Blue Jays don’t strike out a lot but in addition don’t pour on the ability, which feels just like the probably final result to me, the focus will fall on the Dodgers’ protection.
By way of three rounds of postseason play, the Dodgers have allowed a minuscule .236 BABIP, the bottom mark amongst playoff groups. That’s not remotely sustainable, although it does assist to clarify their sheer run prevention dominance. Loads of strikeouts and few hits on balls in play? That’ll do it. However Toronto goes to place that to the take a look at. For years, the Dodgers have been among the best groups in baseball at positioning their defenders. The query might be whether or not that accumulation of small benefits – a foot to the left right here, six inches again there, and so forth – can preserve the Blue Jays from ripping grounders and line drives by means of for base hits.
One attention-grabbing pivot level in that battle for outs might be third base. The Dodgers, maybe emboldened by their elite capability to place their guys, have leaned into offense at each flip. Most notably, they’ve Max Muncy play third base most nights regardless that he’s under common there. Given Toronto’s righty-heavy, contact-heavy lineup, Muncy goes to get a ton of labor all through the sequence. There’s no matchup the place taking part in a defensive legal responsibility at third base will matter extra.
If protection have been all that mattered, the Dodgers would probably choose to play Enrique Hernández on the sizzling nook. He’s a greater defender than Muncy, and he’s going to be beginning anyway. However that might imply no Muncy in any respect; Ohtani is DHing, Freeman performs first, and Muncy isn’t an outfielder. That makes for an attention-grabbing query: Is it price upgrading your protection at the price of certainly one of your higher hitters? How does that equation change primarily based on who’s on the mound, or who’s on the plate? What concerning the rating, or the inning? The reality is, there’s no strictly right reply, and Roberts should always steadiness his offensive wants towards the probabilistic enhance he’s giving to Toronto’s offense by putting worse defenders within the subject.
The answer in most conditions, other than late within the sport with the lead, might be to play Muncy and dwell with any extra base hits. He’s an incredible hitter, key to the size of the Dodgers lineup, and the Blue Jays are mild on affect left-handed pitching. It’s extra sophisticated than that, although, as a result of Toronto’s prime two starters are extremely robust on lefties. Kevin Gausman has made a whole profession out of throwing his splitter previous lefty batters who assume they’ll hit it however aren’t wherever shut. Trey Yesavage, the Jays’ prime prospect and Recreation 1 starter (man, what a 12 months), additionally lives and dies by his glorious splitter. These two are literally harder on lefties than righties, so “regular” lineup issues exit the window. It truly is the postseason of the splitter.
Mix these two righties with a scarcity of high-leverage lefty relievers, and the Jays are going to want to make robust decisions. Would you favor a tiring Gausman towards Ohtani, Freeman, and Muncy over a lefty reliever? Does that equation change if you recognize that you simply’re going to be going through the identical state of affairs — tiring starter or overmatched lefty — time and again all through the sequence? Will Schneider attempt to trip his prime two starters longer than they’re used to, or push an overtaxed, underqualified bullpen to choose up the slack?
As a fast refresher, the highest of the Dodgers lineup is usually going to go Ohtani/Betts/Teoscar Hernández/Freeman/Will Smith/Muncy. There aren’t any weak spots there; there’s no secret code to simply neutralize their efficiency by appropriately stacking in any other case marginal relievers. The very best factor you are able to do towards the highest of the Dodgers lineup is throw your finest pitchers, and hope it really works out.
Now, the underside of that lineup is prone to right-handed pitching, particularly high-velocity right-handed pitching. The issue is, you want these arms for the opposite Dodgers. Calling in a low-leverage reliever for the underside three batters and seeing two of them attain base goes to really feel like a catastrophe. However, utilizing your restricted provide of fine relievers earlier than even going through the slugging part of the lineup is not any good.
You possibly can think about video games the place Schneider wants to make use of all of his easiest relievers, so as, no matter who they’re going through. That received’t all the time be the proper reply, although; typically it will be higher to make use of a lesser reliever towards the underside of the order to save lots of your finest arms. Heck, typically it is perhaps proper to make use of a weaker arm towards one of many scary sections, relying on the sport state. Each inning, each sport, there might be a brand new equation to steadiness, a brand new tradeoff between making it much less probably that the celebs bat once more and saving your finest pitchers to face these stars. I don’t envy Schneider the choices, however I’m excited to look at them.
My favored answer can be stretching the starters longer, however I’m unsure how possible that’s for Shane Bieber and Scherzer, Toronto’s third and fourth starters. Each have alternated flashes of brilliance and clear weaknesses this October – Scherzer managed to indicate each in his solely begin of the playoffs, in reality. These are the sorts of pitchers the Dodgers dismantled all season, and it appears like managerial malpractice to go away them in too lengthy, at the very least till you take a look at the Toronto bullpen, which has been one of many worst within the playoffs.
In a super world, Schneider would get size from each Yesavage and Gausman, letting him save relievers in these video games, then empty out the ‘pen in help of Bieber and Scherzer. However that’s simply the speculation, and it received’t go that completely in observe. Some starter goes to get shelled — in any case, you may’t count on to fully maintain this Dodgers lineup down — and a few reliever isn’t going to have it. Perhaps one of many video games will go to further innings. Schneider goes to want at the very least a number of of the pitchers on his workers to carry out extremely effectively whereas being stretched past their regular utilization. He simply doesn’t know who it will likely be but, or once they’ll should do it. Good luck planning that one out in a spreadsheet.
Ultimately, I believe this sequence goes to come back down as to whether the Blue Jays can restrict the Dodgers to a mediocre offensive efficiency. The Dodgers offense hasn’t been clicking on all cylinders this postseason, although Toronto’s pitching workers goes to be their best matchup but. The Dodgers have been dominating on the again of their pitching, however the Blue Jays are, in flip, the most effective offense they’ve seen. If the Jays are permitting three-ish runs a sport, I like their odds of breaking by means of typically sufficient to take the sequence. If the Dodgers are chewing by means of relievers and stringing collectively crooked innings, it’s not going to final lengthy. And naturally, even when Toronto’s pitching reveals up, Los Angeles’ starters would possibly present up much more; saying that there’s just one variable of curiosity in a playoff sequence is sort of by no means proper.
Earlier than the playoffs began, I predicted a Blue Jays/Dodgers World Sequence, and I picked the Jays to prevail. I suppose I’ll persist with that decide right here, to the extent that I’m making a decide, although this text has clearly been about matchups and never total benefits. I’m not choosing them as a result of I believe they’re favorites towards the Dodgers, to be clear. I like to make use of predictions to focus on outcomes I believe are underpriced by the broader market, relatively than what I believe the probably final result is, and I assumed the Jays have been meaningfully neglected heading into the playoffs.
Our game-by-game ZiPS odds have this one as about 60/40 Dodgers, and the betting markets have Los Angeles nearer to 66% to win. My very own private estimation can be near ZiPS’ numbers; the Dodgers are positively the higher workforce, with their sterling rotation offering nearly all of the benefit, however it’s hardly a walkover. This needs to be an incredible World Sequence. Each groups are going to pose clear challenges to the opposite. None of these challenges are insurmountable, however none have straightforward options. It’s a World Sequence with no dominant methods.