Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 10/24

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy from the kitchen island in Tempe, the place I must pour espresso #2 earlier than we begin.

Tyler: Hello, Eric! The place are you at on Colt Emerson? He made some good swing changes this yr (dropping the leg kick for a toe faucet) that helped him keep on his bottom higher, and he dealt with the AAA promotion properly, albeit in a small pattern.

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess he elements into the Mariners large league center infield subsequent yr

Thomas: Has your analysis/prognostication on Teey Yesevage modified in any respect along with his efficiency over the past month (in both route)?

Hazmat Corntail: Any ideas on Yesavage’s postseason efficiency vis a vis the scouting report and expectations? I’ve solely caught glimpses and it looks like he’s obtained the psychological half down, however has had bouts with shakiness

Eric A Longenhagen: Monster splitter, in all probability higher than my eval, and the distinctive peak of his supply appears to be serving to him. He’s nice.

Dan S.: Ideas on Enrique Bradfield Jr.? Little or no energy and a few struggles towards lefties, however good Okay:BB and he has set new max EVs within the AFL (107.1), which makes me hopeful he can at the least faucet into extra gap-to-gap energy. With plus velocity and protection he might in all probability be an everyday even with like an 80 to 85 wRC+, no?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like him, are inclined to assume he’s going to supply extra like a low-end common once you take a look at the six yr window of management as a complete. Take a peek on the CF WAR leaderboard from the final half decade or so….

Eric A Longenhagen: You don’t begin seeing gamers who SLG underneath .400 till means down the listing, previous the place I’d be snug placing a 50 on the man.

Eric A Longenhagen: I actually like Bradfield and agree he’s going to be a contributor quickly, I simply see him extra as a 9 gap hitter than a Trea Turner kind in CF

Hazmat Corntail: Dbacks are going to check out Lawlar in CF in winter ball. How do you see that figuring out?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s an important concept however I do not know the way it’ll go. He can actually run, so it’d work.

Will: Do you ever really feel indifferent from the goings on of the Main League sport? I really feel so with the A’s + extra curiosity in School Ball.

Eric A Longenhagen: After I first took this job I’d in all probability have informed you that my understanding of the massive league happenings would slip, however I don’t assume that’s been the case. I watch and have interaction with large league video games continually. A few of that’s as a result of I get to be on a west coast schedule.

Balker Woohler: 3 good innings within the AFL and I’m prepared to fireside up the Daniel Espino hype machine– on a scale of 1 to Jose Pett how delusional am I?

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel he could possibly be a set-up man

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll ask media relations of us, he’s not on Salt River’s roster however I’m not conscious why.

Alec: Will Gabriel Gonzalez have a shot to debut subsequent season on a probably skinny Twins roster? My extremely primary boxscore-watching tells me his general manufacturing throughout the minor leagues improved notably in comparison with final season and he performed his means as much as AAA. What do the counting stats and primary measurables not say about his sport?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s believable, he must be placed on the 40-man this offseason and he’s in place to debut simply by advantage of accidents and attrition. There are nonetheless quite a lot of guys forward of him on the depth chart, although. Gotta give Rodriguez and Roden extra runway than they’ve had, for example.

Eric A Longenhagen: Gonzalez stuff past the floor stats: The chase charge (over 30%) is a typical deviation worse than the massive league common, he’s sort of a squat man. There are some warts, doesn’t imply he’s dangerous, within the prime 100 combine this offseason however not a lock.

Logan: For the groups which might be profitable at scouting worldwide gamers, how a lot of it do you assume is having good scouts vs having good analytics vs pure luck?

Eric A Longenhagen: Robust query, the recipe undoubtedly has all three of these elements. I spoke with somebody weeks in the past who stated the correlation between participant bonuses and their efficiency has slipped for the reason that newest adjustments to the foundations, which is sensible when you think about that gamers are committing youthful and youthful and are due to this fact extra unstable.

Large Fan: Thanks a lot in your AFL replace this week.  What have you ever seen from ATL’s Jim Jarvis and LJ McDonough to this point?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jarvis is enjoying a pleasant shortstop, compact athlete with a brief swing, sees the ball properly, seems like a contact-oriented utility man.

Eric A Longenhagen: McDonough it’s a whacky, high-effort stride down the mound, funky arm stroke, misleading fastball/slider combo with 20 or 30 grade command.

Scotty: Your AFL article had a optimistic write up about Jared Thomas. He nonetheless has a 15:1 Okay:BB ratio within the AFL. Is the method the largest situation with him proper now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Actual juice in his fingers, nonetheless has room on his body for power. Unstable man.

Logan: Would you 50 any prospects within the DSL this yr aside from Josuar Gonzalez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Possibly one or two extra with deeper evaluation wanted throughout the offseason.

Eric A Longenhagen: My first look was yesterday, and it was dangerous. Constructed and strikes like an MLB starter, however was mechanically inconsistent yesterday, secondaries have been generic. I’m not inclined to bury him off of yesterday, simply means I must see him once more.

Dan S.: Nate George is listed because the Orioles #38 prospect, however BA has him within the Prime 100 general (78). He was a sixteenth spherical pick of a cold-weather HS however he did nothing however hit in his professional debut with elite velocity and good CF edfense. Is he a man we should always count on to see transfer up the FanGraphs listing quickly?

Eric A Longenhagen: I are usually skeptical of the blokes who can’t activate the ball in any respect. Seems like a speedy fifth OF to me.

Joe: What’s the easiest way to distinguish between an MILB participant with too excessive a Okay% to achieve success in MLB and one that may survive it. Alcantara and Caissie are each just a little excessive, however clearly Choose tailored. Can these two? Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: Examine the swinging strike charge, too. Somebody’s Okay% is likely to be elevated as a result of they run deep counts. The contact charge and swinging strike charge provides you a extra remoted concept of the bat to ball talent. ALso watch to see if there’s barrel really feel. Choose and Shohei swing and miss quite a bit however you’ll be able to nonetheless see them transferring the barrel round in ways in which max out the standard of their contact once they do join. There are power-on-contact metrics (like xwOBAcon) not publicly accessible for a lot of minor leaguers that assist me parse the blokes you’re speaking about.

NFP: Business information query: after we see batter efficiency towards velo, it’s normally break up at 93/94 mph – do groups do analysis each couple of years to confirm that that’s nonetheless the fitting threshold, or is that “simply” common ML velo? The identical goes for a way groups do the sliding scale of EV vs contact%, and so on. Anyway, did Kazuma Okamoto do higher towards velocity in 2025?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s an excellent query. I feel you’ll be able to method it a pair other ways on the similar time. You may se the bar as “common mlb velo” and you may set the bar increased than that to maybe get a greater understanding of how the hitter would look right now of yr towards higher, rested pitching staffs. Your splits may be “vertical fastballs” versus “lateral” ones….

Eric A Longenhagen: Okamoto has completed properly the final two years mixed versus 94+ mph velo: 475 pitches 93+ mph in that pattern, he hit .294 with an OPS simply shy of .900, 13% miss charge

tbone26: any updates to atsuki taniechi’s report? ideas on his secondaries and the way they’d play towards mlb competitors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Engaged on him at the moment, really, don’t have anything contemporary on him as I sit right here proper now, could have up to date information on the location subsequent week.

Bencle Mens: What’s your espresso setup?

Eric A Longenhagen: Only a drip machine, nbd

Eric A Longenhagen: The “Boy, this labored out precisely in addition to it probably might have” comp is lefty-hitting Placido Polanco

Jace, The Thoughts Sculptor: You talked about Dax Kilby perhaps being an offseason 45+… are you now rating the HS draft day SSs  Holliday, Willits… Kilby?… Carlson, JoJo Parker?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t assume Dax is a SS however I do assume his hit device is extra steady than Carlson’s (who’s a 70 SS defender, tho)

Syndergaardengnomes: You by no means hear anybody speak about Nick Morabito (not even a 35+ grade), however he held his personal in AA this yr, and appears like he might at the least be a fifth OF on account of protection and velocity.  Any ideas on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nate George copy and paste

flightsongs: A lot of ink spilled on Roki, however do you have got any opinions on how the opposite rookies and up to date grads in that Dodgers pen (Sheehan/Dreyer/Wrobleski/Henriquez/Klein) have progressed because you final printed an eval of them?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sheehan seems like an actual impression mid rotation man, Dreyer ought to get some down poll RoY votes, Wrobo was worse than I hoped this yr, Henriquez I feel will finally be an eighth or ninth inning man, Klein (at the least what I noticed) was fairly wild

Mike: Mendez not enjoying first within the AFL is a disappointment. He’s behind like six guys for an OF job…. Could possibly be nonetheless transition?

Eric A Longenhagen: Assume he left on account of causes of bereavement. Appeared good earlier than that.

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel studying 1B from scratch on this league can be a giant ask.

Tom, D: Juneiker Caceres backed 24 DSL and 25 Complicated stats fairly in low-A (SSS, in fact) questioning what a practical projection is for him? Desk setting CF?

Eric A Longenhagen: Extra like contact-driven nook man for me.

Eric A Longenhagen: Like a Nootbaar kind?

Kate: Zach Cole obtained some warmth on the finish of the yr.  Can he preserve sufficient of the AAA contact features to let the loud instruments play on the MLB stage?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s potential, he’s yoked and fairly athletic, guys with overt large league physicality are typically those who preserve bettering

Kate: Seems like Morlando and Brailer have seemed fairly terrible in AFL.  How far down are you transferring these guys after this type of exhibiting?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah each these guys are actually going by means of it out right here. Brailer was clearly simply no prepared for this stage of play. He’s made procedural errors on protection, the pitches he decides to problem have been fairly dangerous. However he’s additionally a bodily freak (like edge rusher construct) with plus-plus bat velocity, he’s barely performed, he’s actually younger. Morlando seems like he was within the weight room an excessive amount of and he’s bulked up and misplaced twitch and adaptability.

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t understand how a lot each these guys will dip for me this offseason, however they’ll.

Damien: All of the experiences on George Lombard Jr are nonetheless glowing, however I’m getting nervous about his potential to place up numbers to this point (exterior of his 25′ A+ stretch). Ought to I be??

Eric A Longenhagen: Gonna Okay a bunch, however plus shortstop D and energy will play.

AstrosAllDayEveryDay: Do you assume Walker Janek is developing subsequent yr on opening day?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s too early, he couldn’t catch a giant league employees proper now.

Insert Witty Title Right here: Should you might scout any pitcher or hitter in historical past once they began in A ball, who would you prefer to see?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t assume Roberto Clemente even performed A ball so he is likely to be a fraudulent reply.

John Olerud: Realistically, in your estimation which and what number of of their MLB-ready or near-ready prospects (together with guys who’ve already had a cup of espresso) can the Mariners depend on to offer ample manufacturing for them to depend on as roster stalwarts on a aggressive workforce in 2026?

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel they’ve sufficient MIF candidates to throw on the wall that two will emerge from the Younger/Emerson/Arroyo cluster and assist out one way or the other. I’d be shocked if Montes/Farmelo raced there quick sufficient to assist out in ’26.

Eric A Longenhagen: Farmelo has critical juice btw

nb: Hey Eric – Final yr round this time, I requested you about Justin Crawford and also you have been involved about his GB charge.  Seems like the speed remains to be excessive, however he has pop.  All indications are that the Phillies need him to be their leftfielder sooner or later subsequent yr (perhaps Opening Day).  My query is “ought to he be?”.  Thx!

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m nonetheless anxious he’s Zac Veen

Eric A Longenhagen: The underlying metrics are nice, however I fear he’s gonna get completely labored by large league velo.

Mike: Have you learnt why Josue de Paula was faraway from the AFL roster?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hammy

Trey: Who of the ERC, Lagrange, Hess and Cunningham group will likely be beginning for the Yankees in 27′?

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel you have got them in the fitting order, perhaps Lagrange forward of ERC on ceiling

Ryan: I see much more about Adam Serwinowski on-line these days. Is that the massive market bump or did he make a bounce this previous yr?

Eric A Longenhagen: Huh, that’s really actually attention-grabbing. It’s potential all it takes is one particular person to start out speaking a couple of man earlier than the herding begins.

AL Central Casting: Over the previous decade, various organizations have gotten adept at taking pitchers with good command and getting velocity features – Cleveland’s growth of Beiber being a main instance. This is sensible to me and I might assume there are some commonplace practices at this level to do that. Are any groups getting good on the inverse – taking pitchers with nice stuff and bettering their command? (I’m hoping the Twins can do that with Mick Abel.)

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel there are groups (and the Rays appear to be one most explicitly) who assume they’ll at the least make guys who’ve actual sh*t throw sufficient strikes to be *one thing*, even when they’re not a surgeon.

Insert Witty Title Right here: Did Dante Nori’s yr justify the place he was drafted?

Eric A Longenhagen: Too early to say definitively, thought his yr was fantastic, not transferring the needle both means

Unhappy Mariners fan: Does it make sense for the M’s to commerce Harry Ford, since he’s in all probability most dear as a beginning catcher? In that case, what might they count on to get for him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, catching depth is simply too essential, he looks like an important child to have round and I feel there are methods to make him your large league backup with out actually stunting his growth.

Ben: What is going to the following prospect inefficiency be? Citing gamers earlier? A particular market/nation?

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel shaping them as athletes, train physiology that retains them wholesome, makes them stronger with out impacting their mobility.

Eric A Longenhagen: so it’s entrance of thoughts

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’ve to separate barely early this week. There are nonetheless nice questions within the queue and I thank everybody for once more spending your friday with me and the location. Asian professional ideas coming from James and I subsequent week, gird your loins.