Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 10/21/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us, and welcome to my first chat of the playoffs. Apologies that it’s been so lengthy — on-site protection, late nights, and fast turnarounds have made it exhausting to maintain up right here.

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, I’m glad we’ve been handled to some superior playoff video games and sequence. Final night time’s ALCS Sport 7 was a basic and a heartbreaker. As completely satisfied as I’m for the Blue Jays followers in my life, i’m gutted for the Mariners followers — a gaggle that features colleagues and household.

Jay Jaffe: Anway, let’s get on with the present

sodo mojo: I really feel like watching Naylor within the playoffs he must be a precedence signing for the Mariners this offseason  do you assume 3 years 60M will get it finished or is he going to get a 4 12 months deal given his age?

Jay Jaffe: Heading into his age-29 season, coming off an excellent season and the October showcase that he’s had, he has each cause to hunt a deal longer than three years. I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s after one thing for much longer than that. I do consider the Mariners will make him a precedence, however they shouldn’t wimp out. They have been so near that elusive World Sequence journey this 12 months, and going again to skimping on high quality gamers goes to scale back their possibilities of attending to the subsequent step.

Lars: How does playoff income work? Ticket costs/concessions in Seattle are costly sufficient that it looks like one house playoff sport would pay for one 12 months of a future Naylor contract.

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: As was proven a number of years in the past again after I was at Baseball Prospectus, playoff appearances have a long-term impact on producing curiosity in a group within the type of creating income. for a group that has been getting ready to the playoffs in a number of years with out getting in, then lastly doing so, it’s price spending these marginal {dollars} to enhance the long-term outlook.

Jake: Do you count on Rasmussen or Pepiot to get 200 innings in ’26?

Jay Jaffe: Three pitchers threw 200 innings this season, and 4 final 12 months. the final pitcher to throw 200 innings for the Rays was Chris Archer in 2017 (his third 12 months in a row). So my reply isn’t simply no, it’s an emphatic “completely not.”

Jay Jaffe: Expectations for beginning pitchers have modified

Jay Jaffe: and also you’ll want to regulate yours accordingly

Jake: Jonathan Aranda, product of luck or legit MLB hitter?  .400 BABIP and avgs on flyball/LD are insane.  Shall be returning to Tropicana…do they promote excessive earlier than then?

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t wager on one other .400 BABIP however he’s a reliable offensive menace whose efficiency improved because of his capacity to get the ball off the bottom; his GB% fell from 50.5%% to 38.3% and his EV went up. I wrote about him method again in Might when this was beginning to take form. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-long-awaited-jonathan-aranda-breakout/.

As as to whether the Rays promote excessive, he’s obtained one other 12 months earlier than he’s arb-eligible so I’d be shocked in the event that they transfer him now.

Jos: The Blue Jays restricted LHP choices seem to be a superb matchup for Ohtani, however the dodgers dont have nice RHRP for Vlad. Who’s going to get these guys out within the seventh/eighth/ninth??

Jay Jaffe: It’s no secret that the Dodgers’ greatest weak spot is their bullpen. Their belief tree isn’t any taller than a few of my father’s bonsai. They’ve been in a position to get round that because of beginning pitchers going deep, and utilizing some starters as relievers. I believe they’ll strategy the World Sequence equally  whereas additionally not getting too hung up on strict platoon splits. Lefty Jack Dreyer, for instance, held righties to a .256 wOBA, and Alex Vesia .295. the trail to beating the Dodgers actually runs by way of their bullpen, although.

G: Will anybody (PIT, CLE, KC) ship the Phillies, say…$5-10 million for Castellanos?

Jay Jaffe: perhaps the White Sox ship a pair million. I wouldn’t maintain my breath.

ceeeff: what do you assume the Yankees do that offseason?

Jay Jaffe: I feel the large issues are letting Goldschmidt and Williams stroll, making a powerful run at retaining Bellinger (whom i believe is extra prone to match their finances than Kyle Tucker), including some depth to the outfield in case Dominguez continues to disappoint, including some infield depth to beat the early outage of Volpe and the platoon problems with McMahon, spending on the bullpen and a mid/again rotation starter to offset the early lack of Rodón.

Thomas: Springer’s season and postseason heroics have turned me from considering he has 0 likelihood on the Corridor, to having a marginal case if he has a pair extra good years left in. What do you assume he must do to recover from the signal stealing hump, and at the very least stick on the ballott for a number of years?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see a lot of a path tbh. He’s 35, has a profession/peak/JAWS of 42.3/32.8/37.5, and hasn’t had a 5-WAR season since 2019, when the Astros could have nonetheless been engaged in some shenanigans.

Sonny: As a lot as I used to be rooting for Seattle I feel Toronto is the harder matchup for LA. A turbocharged Brewers offense with low strikeouts however stable energy may hold LA’s pitching sincere. Or is that this wishful considering and LA is just too good and wholesome to be beat?

Jay Jaffe: no one is just too good/wholesome to be crushed in a brief sequence. The Dodgers have typically performed superb protection this October however the Blue Jays are a greater contact group, with extra depth and energy, than the Brewers had. Their greatest difficulty IMO is their beginning pitching, which might want to work deeper to keep away from overexposing their relievers.

Jake: Are you on bluesky or X? We miss the mustachioed metrics man

Jay Jaffe: I’m on Bluesky and have been for over 2 years! @jayjaffe.bsky.social is the deal with. I didn’t delete my account on Twitter, however it’s locked and I not submit there — as soon as in awhile anyone reaches out through DMs there

Tacoby Bellsbury: Is leaving Muñoz within the pen the worst piece of single-gamr bullpen mismanagement since Buck Showalter sat on Zack Britton?

Jay Jaffe: It’s fairly unhealthy however at the very least Muñoz wasn’t a sudden-death scenario like no-Britton. I’m having a tough time developing with a worse one on the spur of the second, although.

Dan S.: Primarily based on what you’ve seen from Bieber submit TJS, do you assume he’s on observe for a shorter, high-ish AAV cope with opt-outs? Or do you assume he can get an extended sufficient, strong sufficient deal to money in now?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t seen sufficient out of Bieber to be assured that he will be the man we noticed from 2019–22 once more, so I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s obtained a cope with an opt-out after 2026 to assist him construct in direction of one thing larger.

Tom B: Are there any fascinating platoon splits amongst Blue Jays hitters that Dodger followers ought to take note?

Jay Jaffe: The Blue Jays do a good bit of platooning to cowl weaknesses, however the one which involves thoughts is Ernie Clement, who through the common season hit for a 146 wRC+ (.326/.351/.549) in opposition to lefties and 75 wRC+ (.254/.295/.327) in opposition to righties however has been enjoying every single day in October and has come by way of in opposition to righties in some key spots. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/relentless-ernie-clement-and-blue-jays-ous…

Dan S.: Jackson Holliday had a disappointing rookie season. However his offensive stats, if underwhelming, weren’t really that far off from many projections (.304 wOBA, .321 xwOBA). Doing that at age 21 makes me moderately assured he’ll find yourself at the very least an above common bat.

Far more disappointing was his protection. He lacks the arm to play quick, however he didn’t adapt effectively to full-time play at 2B. -8 OAA, -6 FRV, -10 DRS. Do you assume he’ll enhance sufficient to be near common there? I’m undecided what different choices he has except his dash pace is sufficient to transition him to CF. He lacks the arm for a nook spot and his bat is perhaps underwhelming there anyway.

Jay Jaffe: Eric Longenhagen graded him at simply 40 PV / 45 FV for protection, albeit with a 50 arm. He does have 82nd-percentile dash pace, so I feel that if reveals he’s not in a position to enhance sufficient at second base, heart discipline is perhaps price an experiment.

21127: Is there any factor that would occur within the WS to vary Max’s HoF odds?

Jay Jaffe: if he begins displaying off his assortment of Nazi paraphernalia or breaking out a Klansman hood, I feel I’d begin betting in opposition to his election. And to be clear, I don’t count on that in any respect. However by way of on-field efficiency? He’s fantastic. He’s had an unbelievable profession however struggled this 12 months. He had an awesome begin final week however no matter occurs from right here on out is a part of the traditional ups and downs of being a 41-year-old with a ton of mileage on his arm.

The Ghost of Stieb’s Slider: Not essentially a query, however, this must be one of the lopsided “future Corridor of Famer” matchups within the finale shortly, proper? The Jays have the still-very-angry mortal stays of Scherzer and … perhaps Vladdy? vs. mainly everybody on the Dodgers…. (Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Kershaw, perhaps Snell?, and so forth.)

Jay Jaffe: 4 to 2 in potential Corridor of Famers is nothing new (not that I’m bought on Vladito getting there, at the very least but), and even some groups that had 5-3, 4-2 or 3-1 edges in that division misplaced World Sequence (2001 and 2003 Yankees, 1996 and 1999 Braves). These counts aren’t prescriptive as a result of gamers are in numerous phases of their careers; Clayton Kershaw isn’t prone to decide the end result of this World Sequence except one thing has already gone very very incorrect for the Dodgers https://stathead.com/tiny/ckgsS

Alex R: As a annoyed Atlanta fan watching groups who aren’t mine, I’m musing about what separates good groups from good playoff groups. Atlanta wants a supervisor, a shortstop, and lot extra depth. Which might you prioritize, and the way would you do it?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a Baseball Prospectus Annual essay, not a chat query I can reply succinctly.

Erik: With Bo Bichette assured he’s coming again for the World Sequence, how a lot do you assume a) getting again and wholesome is vital to his offseason contract, and b) if his efficiency within the World Sequence can affect his earnings in any respect at this level.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume it can have a big impact on his earnings; he’s obtained a move if he struggles due to the missed time. I do assume that his tough defensive metrics and up to date accidents — he’s performed simply 355 video games over the previous 3 years — will work in opposition to him as a free agent.

Pinstripe Perry: Of the groups who obtained previous the WC sequence coin flip, the 2 with the bottom Okay% made it to the WS. Is there a group constructing lesson on this concerning the worth of placing the ball in play in October or is all of it simply small pattern dimension theater?

Jay Jaffe: I feel there’s one thing to be mentioned for contact capacity — we’ve seen some defenses crumble in high-pressure conditions once they wanted to make performs. However I feel it’s a matter of valuing contact within the context of different attributes. A defensive whiz who makes good contact however has solely modest energy (say, Clement) is usually a piece of a World Sequence group. A high-contact man who doesn’t carry a lot else to the desk (Arraez except he’s hitting .330) continues to be not the kind of man I wish to construct round.

Mike: How low will the Twins finances get? Which of Ryan or Lopez, or each, shall be traded?

Jay Jaffe: Man, i don’t know however it’s wanting bleak; it wouldn’t shock me in the event that they’re round $100 mil. It’s going to be simpler to make an affect commerce by dealing Ryan, who’s nonetheless in his arb years, than Lopez, who’s assured over $40 million

Jake: Ought to Aaron Boone be fired? Strategically he’s quite unoriginal and makes actually unhealthy at adjusting.

Jay Jaffe: I feel it’s time for the Yankees to maneuver on from Boone, however it’s very clear that the Yankees worth his different attributes sufficient to offset his in-game weaknesses. He’s a gamers’ supervisor who has stable buy-in inside that clubhouse and from the GM and proprietor, and the franchise participant has his vocal endorsement. So he’s not going wherever anytime quickly except the group faceplants out of the gate.

Jake: Rasmussen, had Money not fully slammed on the breaks close to the AS Break, was over 100 and that was on a 150 IP cutoff/5-6 inning begins.

Jay Jaffe: Sure, and that was coming off lower than 75 innings over the earlier two seasons resulting from UCL and different arm points. They have been by no means going to push him to 200.

Phil: A lot is already being product of the Jays all-RHP pitching workers going up in opposition to the Dodgers Ohtani/Freeman/Muncy behemoth. Just a few Jays followers have famous Yesavage and Gausman have reverse splits, so they need to be thought-about extra like lefties. How a lot are you shopping for this?

Jay Jaffe: not a lot. Yesavage has three common season begins and three posteason ones. Gausman had reverse splits in 2 of the previous 3 seasons however his 3-year splits are degree, and it’s not like he overhauled his repertoire in that span.

Cromulent: Does Nelson Cruz not get sufficient credit score (or curiosity) for the bizarre form of his profession? Are we prone to see somebody bloom that late once more?

Jay Jaffe: sadly one of many huge issues concerning the form of Cruz’s profession is a PED suspension. Setting that apart, that path is the exception, not the norm, clearly, and I wonde what it will have seemed like if he’d gotten an actual shot at enjoying recurrently earlier than 27.

Phil: Any likelihood Tanner Scott or Michael Conforto make the WS squad for the Dodgers?

Jay Jaffe: Scott perhaps, if he’s throwing the ball effectively and if Roberts and Friedman resolve that he’s a greater match for the roster than Kershaw. They’ve gone 9-1 with out Conforto, with Kiké hitting effectively and holding his personal defensively (that dive however). I don’t see why they’d change that up.

G: Can Ranger Suarez match/strategy Framber’s contract worth this low season? He’s 2 years youthful and has comparable numbers over the previous 2 seasons.

Jay Jaffe: I feel the one knock on Suarez is sturdiness; he’s by no means made 30 begins and has averaged simply 25 over the previous three seasons whereas making annual journeys to the IL. He’ll be paid effectively in free company

Involved in SF: Any ideas on whether or not hiring Vitello will carry a couple of wanted sea change in SF or whether or not they have extra basic points arising from, e.g., drafting, growth, possession?

Jay Jaffe: The change has been underway since Buster Posey took over from Farhan Zaidi; the managerial rent is simply the newest transfer inside that. It’s going to take longer earlier than we see how his regime fares concerning drafting and growth

War2D2: Is it bizarre that I really feel a type of depressed letdown after the sport, although I wasn’t actually rooting for both group? That homer by Springer was a intestine punch and it’s like I channeled the frustration of a complete area of followers. Baseball is the very best till it’s absolutely the worst.

Jay Jaffe: That was such an awesome sequence between two groups starved for a World Sequence berth. I’m a bit bummed that it’s over as effectively, as a result of these video games have been a number of enjoyable to look at. Baseball at its finest (apart from a few of the managing)!

Ray Manzarek: Given they’re taking a look at just one extra 12 months of Skubal do you assume the Tigers will really pony up for some beginning pitching and a high quality bat or two?  They’ve obtained some good expertise on the vine however as a Tiger fan I want they’d spend a few of that Little Caesar’s cash and go all in.

Jay Jaffe: I feel they must — that all-in strategy actually characterised Illich Sr.’s possession, for higher or worse, and now that they’ve made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons however not gotten so far as the ALCS I’d be shocked in the event that they dial it again.

Tim L: Together with his superb postseason and the excessive bar for 1B, how far more does Vladito have to do to get into the HOF dialog? I think about it’s a big hole, however will that reduce over time because of the new considering round 1B utilization and him greater than possible being the very best on the place amongst his friends?

Jay Jaffe: Loads. He’s had two Corridor-caliber seasons out of seven. he’s obtained an awesome bat, an early begin to his profession, and long-term safety however he hasn’t proven the perennial consistency of a HOF candidate. Annual 130-ish OPS+ with out additional worth on both protection or the bases isn’t going to be sufficient be to hold him into Cooperstown except he has a number of World Sequence rings.

Matt: The place do you stand on how profitable the Dodgers have been by outspending their competitors? There are many low-cost homeowners making the product worse, however do you consider one thing must be finished to curtail the runaway spending that goes past the luxurious tax? Maybe much more income sharing?

Jay Jaffe: I feel there are too many homeowners pocketing the income sharing cash and skimping on payroll, and the mechanisms that one may put in place to attempt to stop the Dodgers from spending more cash are ones which are going to place more cash within the pockets of the homeowners, not the gamers. So screw that.

The reply to competing with the Dodgers is to push the envelope the best way the Padres have — it hasn’t paid off with a World Sequence journey however they did bounce them in 2022 and have been thisclose to profitable final 12 months’s Division Sequence as effectively.

Jeff in Jersey: Hello Jay. How open are you to the argument Sam Miller has been making that, within the period of expanded postseasons, we must always think about postseason efficiency into HOF instances? Springer, as an illustration, has half a season’s price of AB’s within the postseason and, whereas he’s borderline at finest within the common season, the postseason actually supplies a carry in considering of the worth he’s introduced to groups.

Jay Jaffe: Postseason performances have at all times been components in Corridor of Fame deliberations. There are a bunch of pitchers within the Corridor who had short-ish careers however starred in two World Sequence, to say nothing of all of the Frisch/Terry VC guys who have been a part of a number of WS groups in STL or NY. I feel postseason can push a borderline man over the road however I don’t see Springer as even a borderline man; Pettitte is the instance I’d use (and I did vote for him, as soon as).

Welland Jackfish: Re Blue Jays platoons: With Santander injured, the most important platoon the Jays will make might be Davis Schneider in in opposition to Snell/different lefties

bringbackpologrounds: Shocked nobody has talked about Bo Bichette’s impending return. Assuming he’s about 90% wholesome, how ought to TOR make the most of him? Bo DH, Springer RF (IKF out)? Or is he relegated to PH standing?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume there’s a lot level to rostering Bichette if he’s solely a PH, so if he’s on the roster it’s to DH and ship Springer into the sector. Which suggests they might lose a number of of his at-bats late in video games if they should change him out for defensive functions — he was tough on the market in small samples (-6 DRS, -6 FRV in 282 innings).

johnny dANGER: in your corridor of fame evaluation, do you think about misplaced time to issues exterior of a gamers management? I.E. Aaron Decide misplaced 100 video games in 2020 and would possibly lose time due a to strike that would have been an extra 4 WAR?

Jay Jaffe: Certain, it’s context for a participant’s profession. Ain’t gonna matter a rattling bit for Aaron Decide’s Corridor of Fame case, he’s effectively on his method.

Jay Jaffe: However in the event you’re asking whether or not I’ve a mathematical components to credit score guys with misplaced time, no, I don’t — and we’re already utilizing present JAWS to measure in opposition to a participant inhabitants that misplaced years to wars and partial seasons to strikes, and to shorter schedules, and… the terrain of baseball historical past isn’t a flat one; each period has its quirks that must be accounted for.

Erik: What are the possibilities that Bieber simply takes his $16m participant possibility and everyone seems to be proud of it?

Jay Jaffe: I’m positive he can assure himself more cash than that, whether or not in TOR or elsewhere.

Unhappy Mariners fan: Who has affected their HOF odds probably the most up to now this postseason? Vlad? Anybody else transferring the needle?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume there’s anybody who’s actually shut sufficient to the purpose that their 2025 October efficiency might be the distinction, however it’s good to see guys like Vladito, Raleigh, and Julio who’re early of their careers come up huge. Possibly a man like Snell who clearly will be elite when he’s wholesome and at his finest may gain advantage down the highway however he’s going to must pound out half a dozen full seasons of sturdy work to beat the unevenness of his non-Cy Younger seasons up to now.

Erik: Sal Licata with SNY mentioned the Mets have been discussing buying and selling Lindor. Is he loopy or are the Mets loopy?

Jay Jaffe: That’s the dumbest thought i can consider concerning the Mets.

Jorge: Had a debate with some pals about Matt Olson’s Corridor of Fame possibilities.  I mentioned he’s solely 2 extra recurrently productive seasons away from making it, they mentioned 5.  Who’s nearer to being proper?

Jay Jaffe: I’d put the reply at 3-4 seasons of 5+ bWAR. If he produces like he has in his All-Star seasons (2025 included) he has a shot.

Matt: Do you assume that Sandy Alcantara can regain his type subsequent season or is a candidate to proceed a decline

Jay Jaffe: He put up a 3.33 ERA and three.89 FIP within the second half so I feel we’ll see… one thing moreover the disasterpiece of his first half. I’m not banking on him to be a Cy Younger candidate however he will help a contender.

Jay Jaffe: okay of us, thanks a lot for stopping by! Hopefully, we’ll be getting again to doing these on a extra common foundation.