Hey youngsters, there’s a substitute trainer as we speak! However I’ve been given the lesson plan, so we’re going to go forward and speak about Milwaukee Brewers supervisor Pat Murphy — no spending the day watching previous episodes of The Simpsons that I’ve on VHS, though this classroom nonetheless has a functioning VCR for some cause. As your regular trainer, Mr. Clemens, would do, I’m going to grade Murphy primarily based on his general efficiency within the playoffs, quite than scrutinize each single micro determination made. For those who’d prefer to see Mr. Clemens’ stories on the managers who misplaced within the varied Division Collection, you could find the American League write-up right here, and the Nationwide League write-up right here.
I discover the Brewers fascinating, each as a result of I’ve at all times appreciated them having one of the best emblem in sports activities, and since I’m actually unhealthy at projecting them. Whereas I had a greater time of it than some others did this yr, and a minimum of solely had them two wins in need of the Cubs, the preseason ZiPS standings have repeatedly underestimated the Brew Crew. I’d love to have the ability to straight blame the pc for this phenomena, however ZiPS has really performed a stable job of projecting particular person Milwaukee gamers. The issue is that when it comes time to guess precisely who will see the sphere, I’ve been giving them brief shrift. In every of the final 5 seasons, if I had identified exactly who would find yourself getting taking part in time, the preseason projections would have gone up by a median of just below 4 wins per yr. It’s not merely that they’ve been more healthy than anticipated, both; the Brewers have a tendency to advertise fascinating gamers at a a lot quicker tempo than I anticipate them to, are very fast to grasp what’s not working, and deploy function gamers extraordinarily successfully.
OK, the bell rang, so let’s get going.
Batting: A
The Brewers had a solidly above-average offense in 2025, ending third in baseball in runs scored and ninth in general wRC+. They managed this feat with out something in the best way of a middle-of-the-order bruiser, and general, the crew didn’t have a single participant with a minimum of 300 plate appearances who even hit the .800 OPS mark. The Brewers have been twenty second in homers and twenty fifth in remoted energy, forward of solely the Padres amongst playoff groups, however they led the league in singles and ranked second in stolen bases. Additionally they led the league in bunt hits, grounded into the third-fewest double performs, and had extra of their baserunners really rating than every other crew.
The way in which they scored was efficient over the lengthy haul of 162 video games, nevertheless it was riskier than one would possibly anticipate in a brief sequence. Opposite to standard knowledge, for a minimum of the final 30-plus years, groups that depend on homers are extra constant scorers. For those who take a look at the coefficient of variation (CV) for game-by-game crew scoring since 1993 (commonplace deviation over imply), about 20% of a crew’s game-by-game volatility will be defined by homers as a share of hits, with house run reliant groups being extra secure run producers. And this goes past the connection with simply being an excellent offense; in the event you assemble a easy mannequin for a crew’s scoring volatility utilizing solely a crew’s runs per sport and residential run hit share, the latter is definitely the stronger a part of the mannequin.
Why? The likeliest rationalization is that the particulars of a house run make it constant: For those who pull a fly ball actually laborious, there’s an excellent probability that it’ll be a house run, probably the most profitable kind of hit. That’s a repeatable talent. So is making any form of contact, however the outcomes of different kinds of contact are much less sure, due to the dudes with these huge leather-based hand thing-a-ma-bobs.
Sport 1 of the NLDS went fairly easily, with the crew shortly attending to Matthew Boyd; they knocked him out within the first inning, so there wasn’t a lot temptation for Murphy to be too cute on a tactical degree. The similar Sport 2 lineup scored seven runs, and with a stable lead for many of the sport, there once more wasn’t a lot room for shenanigans. The one quibble I had right here was not getting Jackson Chourio out of the sport even sooner, given the lead and that he was simply coming off re-tweaking his hamstring in Sport 1. Brandon Lockridge did are available in for the ninth, however I might have introduced him in after Chourio homered to place them up 7-3 within the fourth. That’s in all probability fairly small potatoes, although.
I used to be much less enthralled with Murphy’s Sport 3 lineup. You possibly can justify Lockridge’s utility as a defensive substitute/pinch-runner within the postseason, however I don’t assume the scenario referred to as for really beginning him. You’re not going to play Chourio in middle given his hamstring, however the Brewers did produce other choices on the market. I do know Sal Frelick isn’t the popular alternative, however provided that Murphy did use him on the market within the NLCS, I can’t think about he was categorically not an possibility within the NLDS. I might quite have gotten Isaac Collins or Andrew Vaughn into the lineup (the latter pushing Jake Bauers into the outfield) than have Lockridge face Jameson Taillon. And whereas squeeze performs are cool, even the extra boring security squeeze variation, however I actually hated the Lockridge try within the fourth. I don’t like a one-run play when a crew is behind by two on the street or has one out already. After which Murphy pinch-hit for Lockridge with Collins later within the sport anyway!
There wasn’t a lot to be performed in Sport 4, as the popular lineup towards lefties was on the market and simply didn’t carry out. Except I missed one, the Brewers didn’t get a single hit with a runner on base, and there’s simply not a lot that may be performed tactically in that scenario.
The three-1 victory over the Cubs in Sport 5 was one other pretty easy affair. The beginning 9 towards opener Drew Pomeranz was the identical because it was towards Boyd the sport earlier than, simply with some minor shifting round within the batting order. Milwaukee received the sport in a quite un-Milwaukee-like approach, with little motion on the bases and three solo homers proving to be sufficient. The one time they actually strung collectively hits was within the fourth inning towards Colin Rea, and you would argue that once they loaded the bases with two outs, it was the time to pinch-hit for Joey Ortiz, however that’s actually my solely quibble.
From a managerial standpoint, the NLCS was much less fascinating than the NLDS just because Murphy had tactical choices towards the Cubs that he largely lacked towards the Dodgers. There’s no impactful lineup determination or pinch-hitting alternative that may make up for a crew scoring 4 runs in 4 video games. Perhaps you squeeze Rhys Hoskins into the lineup to attempt to hit a house run off a lefty, however there simply weren’t some ways to maneuver the needle. No one had solutions towards Blake Snell in Sport 1, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto was almost as dominant in Sport 2. A Caleb Durbin leadoff double within the seventh off Alex Vesia was probably the most fascinating Sport 3 second, permitting the Brewers to get Bauers, Collins (pinch-hitting for Ortiz), and Chourio to face Vesia after which the more and more erratic Blake Treinen, however the crew’s knack for stringing hits collectively as soon as once more deserted it. As for Sport 4, if Murphy was one way or the other answerable for the Brewers not using Shohei Ohtani, I can see blaming him for that, however I’m unsure there was a pinch-hitting transfer or lineup swap that might have countered Ohtani’s unbelievable evening.
It’s laborious to present somebody an excellent grade when his crew will get swept out of a sequence, however the Brewers merely acquired outplayed, and totally different managerial ways wouldn’t have saved them.
Pitching: B-
I believed Murphy usually did an excellent job juggling the Brewers’ pitching workers over the course of the common season. I used to be a lot much less excited concerning the pitcher utilization within the postseason, although as with the hitting, I’m unsure it could have made a distinction in the long run.
Bear in mind after I praised Murphy for resisting the impulse to be too cute? Properly, a few of his pitching selections within the postseason have been movies of puppies swarming Santa Claus on Christmas morning. Not unhealthy per se, however generally eschewing an easier, extra easy strategy to utilizing his assets.
Nonetheless, let’s begin with one spot the place I want that Murphy had tried to play 11-dimensional chess: the utilization of Freddy Peralta in Sport 1 of the NLDS. Peralta was mainly the one plug-and-play starter who the Brewers could possibly be 100% snug with, and with a 9-1 lead after two, I might have informed him to hit the showers. Consider these 26 pitches as him simply being an opener; you would possibly want him once more sooner quite than later. Now, I received’t decide a supervisor too harshly for failing to make an uncommon alternative together with his ace pitcher, so it’s a extremely only a small word with my pink marker. However Murphy ought to have a minimum of thought-about giving Chad Patrick some bulk innings there, as a result of then you possibly can deliver again Peralta even sooner than Sport 4.
It labored out in Sport 2, however I actually didn’t like going to a bullpen sport this early within the postseason. Sure, they have been rested, however Murphy needed to know that he was going to wish to make use of his relievers quite a bit this October. I used to be much less disillusioned when it appeared that Quinn Priester would possibly get a bunch of innings after the Aaron Ashby opener, however Murphy indicated that they didn’t even have any plans to make use of Priester within the sport. Nonetheless, I did like seeing Jacob Misiorowski, so full credit score for that! ZiPS really would have most popular for the Miz to have simply been part of the rotation from the beginning. The Brewers used numerous relievers to keep up a fairly stable lead, however you can too argue the advantages of letting everybody get some pitches in.
Priester was the logical starter in Sport 3 if he didn’t begin in Sport 2, so I’ll assign no blame for his struggles to Murphy. I believe I might have tried to wring extra pitches out of Nick Mears earlier than going to Jose Quintana in lengthy aid, however that’s a small subject.
I accepted of utilizing Peralta in Sport 4 quite than some over-complex plan of hoping the crew wins Sport 4 with out him, and saving him for a potential Sport 1 within the NLCS. In a seven-game sequence, Peralta in all probability doesn’t get an additional begin in the event you throw him in a Sport 1 as a substitute of a Sport 2, as you possibly can swing in a five-game sequence. The bullpen had been closely used for 2 video games, so in the event you’re going to begin Peralta for one of many video games, it’s greatest to only settle issues in Sport 4. It didn’t quiet work out that approach, in fact, however with an off day and the Miz having one other stable bulk look in Sport 5, the rubber sport went in line with plan from a pitching standpoint. And Murphy lastly gave Patrick some pitches, as I had been demanding beforehand!
The contours of the NLCS made pitching administration quite difficult for Murphy, so I’ll give him numerous credit score right here. Milwaukee’s bats have been silent, however the Dodgers’ hitters by no means obliterated the Brewers on the plate, so Murphy was put in a scenario the place he needed to hold video games as shut as potential whereas ready for offense that by no means got here. As perverse as this may increasingly sound, issues may need been simpler if a kind of losses had been a 13-0 shellacking that allowed a mop-up sport. Tobias Myers was mainly added to the NLCS roster rather than Mears for this very risk, in any case.
Sport 1 lastly gave us that Ashby-plus-a-Priester-chaser sport, and whereas it wasn’t a sterling outing for Priester by any stretch of the creativeness, he managed to flee bother and left the sport with the Dodgers nonetheless scoreless. He can actually thank the protection of Collins and Frelick, together with that basically enjoyable 8-6-2 double play that stole a Max Muncy grand slam. Abner Uribe, one of the improved pitchers from a management standpoint the previous few seasons, did have a lapse that walked in Muncy, however I additionally would have deliberately walked Ohtanti with runners on second and third to set that up.
The Dodgers eked out a small edge towards Peralta in Sport 2, however with Yamamoto mowing down the lineup, there weren’t any selections for Murphy right here that had an excellent probability of reversing the 5-1 loss. Murphy acquired numerous warmth in some corners of the web for going to Ashby once more in Sport 3 because the opener, however I really felt it was completely affordable with Ohtani and Freddie Freeman on the prime of the lineup. And in the long run, if giving up one run within the first was a deal breaker, there was by no means a deal to begin with! Misiorowski was excellent once more — as I stated earlier than, I want they’d simply used him as a starter — and I might have left him on the market for the remainder of the sixth even after the Dodgers scored their second run. Once more, it was the dearth of offense that was the issue right here.
Sport 4 was the Shohei Ohtani Sport, in fact. If mortal man might cease Ohtani, they absolutely would have performed so by now. Quintana was fairly hittable, however he was additionally the plain alternative given how the primary three video games went, and that was that.
When the Brewers look again on the failures of the NLCS, the sweep actually comes right down to the offense merely not performing once they wanted runs. I don’t assume Murphy did a completely good job, however I additionally assume that his selections usually put the Brewers ready to succeed. That they fell in need of the World Collection doesn’t fall on his shoulders. I didn’t have a vote for the NL Supervisor of the 12 months award, however I might have chosen Murphy for the two-peat if I had. I’ll give him a stable B+/A- general for the postseason, and thanks all for not letting the classroom devolve into chaos with a substitute trainer manning the desk for the day.