Even the very best pitchers in baseball lose a sport on occasion. Simply ask Tarik Skubal. I’m certain you’ve examine it 100 instances by now, however the Mariners have gained all three of their video games this 12 months the place Skubal was the opposing starter. Seattle was the one group at hand him a number of losses throughout the common season, and the Tigers dropped Recreation 2 of the ALDS — technically a no-decision for Skubal — lower than every week in the past. Now, because of his group’s roaring come-from-behind victory in Recreation 4, Skubal is lined as much as begin tonight’s decisive Recreation 5, giving him a possibility to lastly beat the Mariners this 12 months.
I’ll give a warning upfront: This text goes to lean fairly closely on batter-pitcher matchup stats; we’ll be inspecting some extraordinarily small samples. However I feel it’s an fascinating investigation into the technique that unfolds between acquainted foes throughout a brief postseason collection.
What I actually wished to know is whether or not the Mariners had a particular method that made them so profitable towards Skubal this 12 months. As I discussed, Skubal confronted the Mariners twice throughout the common season. On April 2, in Seattle, he allowed three runs in 5.2 innings; he gave up six hits and three walks whereas putting out eight. On July 11, he confronted them once more, this time in Detroit, and allowed 4 runs in 5 innings; he gave up simply 4 hits and two walks whereas putting out 5. His Recreation 2 begin this previous Sunday was his finest but: He surrendered two runs on 5 hits and one stroll in seven innings whereas notching 9 strikeouts. The 2 house runs off the bat of Jorge Polanco had been his undoing.
Among the many batters within the Mariners’ present beginning lineup, solely Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor have did not earn successful towards Skubal this 12 months; they’ve solely confronted him throughout the ALDS, as they weren’t with Seattle earlier within the season and Skubal by no means confronted the Diamondbacks. Polanco had the 2 house runs on Sunday, and Julio Rodríguez blasted a house run — his solely hit off Skubal in 2025 — within the sport in July. Shockingly, J.P. Crawford is tied for the group lead with Polanco with three hits off Skubal this season.
If we transfer previous the tiny particular person samples and try how the group approached him, does something soar out at us? Right here’s a have a look at how the Mariners have fared towards every of Skubal’s particular person pitch varieties:
Mariners Hitters vs. Tarik Skubal
| Pitch | Depend | wOBA | xwOBA | Onerous-Hit% | Barrel% | Whiff% | Run Worth/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-seamer | 101 | 0.227 | 0.254 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 32.2% | 2.6 |
| Changeup | 80 | 0.266 | 0.249 | 35.3% | 11.8% | 50.0% | -1.1 |
| Sinker | 56 | 0.323 | 0.298 | 36.4% | 9.1% | 23.3% | -1.3 |
| Slider | 36 | 0.706 | 0.413 | 40.0% | 40.0% | 31.3% | -7.1 |
*Together with Postseason
Skubal’s two finest pitches are his four-seam fastball and his lethal changeup. Seattle’s batters have actually struggled towards Skubal’s heater, operating a woeful .227 wOBA and a minuscule 10% hard-hit price towards it. The group has truly struggled relative to league common towards fastballs thrown tougher than 97 mph this 12 months; the Mariners produced a .286 wOBA (league common is .295), a -0.75 RV/100 (-0.61), and a 29.6% whiff price (23.7%) towards exhausting stuff. Skubal’s fastball is a high shelf pitch, higher than every other starter’s based on Stuff+, so it’s no shock they struggled to place it in play with any authority.
The actual shock is how nicely they’ve fared towards Skubal’s changeup and slider. His changeup was arguably the very best pitch in all of baseball in 2025 — it led all pitches with a run worth of 25 based on Baseball Savant. Regardless of swinging and lacking half the time they provided at his change, the Mariners truly did a bit of harm towards the pitch. Rodríguez’s house run in July got here off a dangling changeup that was left up within the zone in a 1-2 rely:
After which there’s the slider. Skubal’s breaking ball is the worst of his pitches, although it nonetheless grades out as an above-average pitch per Stuff+. All the best way again in April, Dylan Moore, who’s not with the Mariners, poked a again door slider over the correct discipline wall for an reverse discipline house run. Extra not too long ago, Polanco collected a single off a slider again in July, and his first house run in Recreation 2 got here on a dangling breaking ball:
Was there one thing in regards to the Mariners method to Skubal that allowed them to hone in on his secondary choices? Listed here are their key plate self-discipline metrics towards him, damaged down by pitch sort. His pitch sort cut up for all of 2025 for every of those metrics is in parenthesis for context:
Mariners Plate Self-discipline vs. Tarik Skubal
| Pitch | Swing% | Chase% | Z-Swing% | Z-Contact% | Zone% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-seamer | 58.4% (58.5%) | 31.8% (31.7%) | 79.8% (77.9%) | 68.9% (79.7%) | 56.4% (58.0%) |
| Changeup | 57.5% (59.9%) | 34.1% (46.9%) | 82.1% (77.0%) | 65.6% (66.4%) | 48.8% (43.2%) |
| Sinker | 53.6% (49.5%) | 30.0% (20.2%) | 66.7% (63.0%) | 79.2% (86.6%) | 64.3% (68.4%) |
| Slider | 44.4% (44.7%) | 33.3% (20.0%) | 60.0% (61.6%) | 77.8% (79.2%) | 41.7% (59.3%) |
*Together with Postseason | Season common in parenthesis
The factor that jumps out is the Mariners’ refusal to chase Skubal’s changeup out of the zone. His chase price on that pitch was almost 50% in 2025, however the Mariners solely chased 34% of the time. He even famous that method from Polanco after Recreation 2:
“[Polanco] appeared to have seen the ball fairly nicely from me. He took some changeups down that had been just under [the zone]. Usually after I throw it proper there and execute, there’s a superb outcome for me.”
Not solely have the Mariners spit on these changeups simply out of the zone, they’ve been extra aggressive than the remainder of the league towards the changeups that do fall within the zone. After they’ve managed to power Skubal into the zone, they’ve been capable of do some injury. And if Skubal refuses to pitch within the zone, they’re affected person sufficient to take their walks; Seattle led all groups with six walks off Skubal this 12 months.
Figuring out how Seattle’s batters have approached him previously, I’m certain Skubal and battery mate Dillon Dingler are crafting a plan for Recreation 5. Right here’s his pitch combine towards them to date:
Tarik Skubal Pitch Combine vs. Mariners
| Pitch | April 2 | July 11 | October 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4-seamer | 46.2% | 24.1% | 38.1% |
| Changeup | 32.3% | 33.3% | 21.6% |
| Sinker | 11.8% | 26.4% | 22.7% |
| Slider | 6.5% | 14.9% | 17.5% |
From April to July, Skubal modified his pitch combine to function extra sinkers and sliders. In his postseason begin in Seattle, he switched issues up once more and in the reduction of on the utilization of his changeup, little question understanding the affected person method the Mariners have had towards his offspeed stuff. The plan for Friday gained’t be dramatically completely different from Skubal’s already established norms, however I’m certain it’ll have its wrinkles. After Recreation 4, Dingler hinted at how regular the sport plan might be:
“We don’t differ an excessive amount of from what he’s actually good at. We don’t enterprise too far off. We’ll enhance offspeed, we’ll enhance fastball, we’ll enhance slider or changeup, simply little tiny issues simply to get us to that end line.”
Based mostly on the method the Mariners have proven of their earlier three conferences, maybe Skubal will lean just a little heavier on his four-seam fastball, daring the Mariners to hit his exhausting stuff. Perhaps Seattle’s batters can have labored on hitting high-velocity fastballs throughout their off day on Thursday. All of this sport planning might be examined as soon as the pitches begin flying tonight.
The opposite angle of study I wished to discover was to see if beginning pitchers suffered any type of penalty for beginning a number of instances inside a postseason collection. Similar to relievers lose their effectiveness the extra typically they’re used towards the identical opponent in a brief span of time, it follows that starters would endure an identical unfavorable impact of their second begin. As batters get aware of how a pitcher’s pitches transfer, they’re higher capable of choose up on these pitches. It’s the identical notion that undergirds the times-through-the-order penalty.
I pulled each pitcher who began a number of instances in a single postseason collection since 2021, giving me a pattern dimension of 54. Then, I calculated their distinction in efficiency from their first begin to their second.
Efficiency in A number of Begins in a Single Postseason Collection (2021–24)
| Begin # | ERA | FIP | wOBA | Okay-BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recreation 1 | 4.02 | 4.07 | .306 | 17.5% |
| Recreation 2 | 4.25 | 4.58 | .318 | 14.4% |
| Distinction | 0.23 | 0.52 | .012 | -3.1% |
(Replace: a calculation error skewed the information within the desk above. It has been up to date to appropriate the error.)
On common, throughout the 4 metrics I used, pitchers carried out worse of their second begin; their ERA rose by 1 / 4 of a run, their FIP elevated by greater than half a run, their wOBA allowed elevated by 12 factors, and their strikeout-minus-walk price fell by greater than three factors. I additionally calculated the identical distinction in efficiency, however eliminated second begins that had been made on quick relaxation to manage for potential fatigue results. Even when limiting the information to pitchers pitching on regular relaxation, we see that they carried out worse of their second begin in a postseason collection, although the impact was rather less dramatic; their ERA stayed regular, their FIP was up 0.58, their wOBA allowed went up 9 factors, and their Okay-BB% dipped 3.1%. Not solely will Skubal be making his fourth begin towards the Mariners this 12 months, this knowledge exhibits he’ll doubtless endure a penalty for having dealing with them so not too long ago.
We solely need to look again to final 12 months to see how Skubal fared in a decisive Recreation 5 after making a begin earlier within the collection. Skubal was phenomenal in his Recreation 1 begin towards the Guardians within the 2024 ALDS. He threw seven shutout innings, permitting simply three hits and putting out eight. Cleveland acquired the higher of him in Recreation 5, nevertheless, scoring 5 runs — 4 off a Lane Thomas grand slam within the fifth inning — off Skubal in an eventual 7-3 loss that despatched Detroit house for good. Pointing to final 12 months’s Recreation 5 failure doesn’t essentially portend a repeat tonight. Skubal has been one of many best pitchers in baseball for 2 years now — a top quality that surpasses a lot of the pattern from above — so any familiarity penalty might be much less pronounced than the information may predict. The Tigers are definitely feeling assured behind their ace.
In the long run, Skubal’s success tonight will come all the way down to execution. Will he make the required changes to maintain Seattle’s batters off stability, or will they proceed their affected person method towards a well-known foe and beat him for the fourth time this 12 months?