One other AL East Conflict: Yankees vs. Blue Jays ALDS Preview

On Thursday, the New York Yankees turned the primary group to win a Wild Card Collection after shedding the primary recreation of the best-of-three because the new playoff format was launched in 2022. After dispatching the Boston Purple Sox within the Wild Card, the Yanks have a matchup towards one other AL East foe lined up for the ALDS. For his or her half, the Toronto Blue Jays desperately wanted their first-round bye to get their roster wholesome after a breakneck closing month of the season. These two groups completed 2025 with an identical 94-68 data. The division race got here right down to the common season’s closing day, and the Jays solely took the AL East crown because of a 8-5 head-to-head report towards New York.

These division rivals are effectively acquainted with one another, although this would be the first time the 2 groups have met within the playoffs. (That’s fairly wild contemplating the Yankees’ lengthy postseason historical past. There at the moment are simply three groups they haven’t confronted within the playoffs: the White Sox, Nationals, and Rockies.) Their an identical win totals through the common season present the first storyline on this sequence: These are two evenly matched golf equipment battling for a spot within the ALCS.

Coming off a scorching end to the common season, which noticed them win 11 of their final 12 video games, and now a dramatic sequence victory over the Purple Sox, the Yankees have fairly a little bit of momentum heading into this sequence. Nonetheless, as a result of that Wild Card Collection went the complete three video games, New York might be at a little bit of an obstacle to start out this sequence. Max Fried gained’t be absolutely rested till Sunday’s Sport 2, which suggests both Will Warren or Luis Gil must take the mound in Sport 1. Because of the off days through the center of subsequent week, New York can have the choice to reslot Carlos Rodón and Cam Schlittler relying on how the primary two video games of the sequence go, then have Fried able to go in a doubtlessly decisive Sport 5.

After coming back from a lat pressure in August, Gil loved some combined success over the ultimate two months of the season after which was left off the Yankees’ Wild Card roster. His 3.32 ERA seemed good on the floor, however a 4.63 FIP, 4.78 xERA, and 5.65 xFIP all painted a way more worrying image. Gil gained the AL Rookie of the 12 months award final 12 months with an strategy that might greatest be described as managed chaos. A excessive strikeout price and a penchant for inducing weak contact lined for his extraordinarily excessive stroll price. This season, his stroll price was a bit greater, however his strikeout price dropped by 10 factors and his BABIP elevated by almost 20 factors. He nonetheless managed to navigate all that site visitors on the basepaths, however I’m unsure the Yankees wish to belief him with a Sport 1 begin.

Warren, alternatively, had a strong rookie marketing campaign after making the Opening Day rotation out of spring coaching. He form of handled the other downside as Gil; his peripherals all pointed to a robust ability set, however the top-line outcomes lagged a bit behind. Although his strikeout-to-walk ratio seemed good, Warren actually struggled with runners on base; his wOBA allowed jumped by greater than 40 factors as soon as a batter reached. The Jays additionally handed Warren considered one of his worst begins of the season again on July 2 once they scored seven first-inning runs off of him.

There aren’t any simple solutions for Yankees supervisor Aaron Boone when selecting a Sport 1 starter, however the remainder of the rotation needs to be positive. Fried turned in a improbable scoreless begin in Sport 1 of the Wild Card Collection and Schlittler simply produced one of many sport’s most dominant postseason begins by a rookie in Sport 3. Rodón seemed just a little shaky in his Sport 2 begin, however the Yankees aren’t going to show away from considered one of their workhorses at this level within the season.

By advantage of their first-round bye, the Blue Jays have the luxurious of slotting their rotation as they see match, although the primary two starters aren’t prone to be a shock. Kevin Gausman turned in a improbable season this 12 months, although it was additionally a little bit of a bounce-back marketing campaign for him after he struggled in 2024. The important thing for him, because it has been since his huge breakout in 2020, is the interplay between his four-seam fastball and his splitter. If he’s finding his heater effectively and conserving his splitter beneath the zone, the two-pitch combo is fairly tough to sq. up. Certainly, his wOBA allowed off his fastball fell by greater than 50 factors this 12 months, whereas his offspeed pitch was as efficient as ever at producing each swings and misses and groundball contact.

Acquired from the Guardians on the commerce deadline, Shane Bieber is lined as much as begin Sport 2. The previous Cy Younger winner blew out his elbow in April 2024 and solely returned to a giant league mound in late August. A deep postseason run is strictly why the Blue Jays acquired Bieber, although his return from Tommy John surgical procedure hasn’t come with out its hurdles. The excellent news is that his 5.29 strikeout-to-walk ratio appears improbable, his command appears prefer it’s nearly as good because it’s ever been, and his fastball is sitting at 92.6 mph, again to the place it was in 2021 and a tick above the place it sat in 2022 and 2023. The dangerous information is that he was a bit homer susceptible throughout his seven begins within the common season. That precipitated his FIP to spike almost a run greater than his ERA, and his batted ball peripherals are displaying some worrying crimson flags. He allowed an enormous 12.3% barrel price — that’s the supply of all these house runs — and his 48.2% hard-hit price was fairly elevated too. Relying on which ERA estimator you favor, Bieber was both improbable (3.35 xFIP, 3.52 SIERA) or fairly fortunate (4.47 FIP, 4.58 xERA) in his abbreviated season.

With Gausman and Bieber a robust one-two punch, the Jays face a way more tough alternative when deciding on their starters for Video games 3 and 4. You’d count on the veteran expertise of Max Scherzer would give him a leg up on rookie Trey Yesavage, however the teen rapidly acclimated to the large leagues after being known as up on September 15. Chris Bassitt is also an possibility, because it appears like he’s recovered from the again damage that sidelined him in direction of the top of the common season. Scherzer is much from the ace that helped lead the 2019 Nationals to a World Collection victory, and he’s not even the workhorse that helped the 2023 Rangers win a championship. He battled a thumb concern this 12 months and posted an uncharacteristically excessive 5.19 ERA and 4.99 FIP in 17 begins. His postseason historical past is famous, however he’s vastly diminished in comparison with his peak.

On the opposite finish of the expertise spectrum, Yesavage, who’s in his first skilled season after being drafted within the first spherical of the 2024 draft, may very well be in line to make a postseason begin. He moved by 4 minor league ranges this season earlier than making his main league debut in September. He struck out 41.1% of the minor league batters he confronted, and that swing-and-miss stuff has carried over to the sport’s highest degree. Even when Yesavage doesn’t make a conventional begin, I’d count on him to play a major position in Toronto’s pitching plans throughout this sequence. One possibility may very well be piggybacking a begin with Scherzer, which might enable Bassitt to take a flip as a conventional starter.

As soon as the starters give strategy to the bullpens, the Blue Jays would possibly maintain a slight benefit, although neither reduction unit is all that stout. The Yankees made a bunch of strikes to improve their bullpen forward of the commerce deadline, bringing in David Bednar and Camilo Doval to complement the offseason acquisitions of Devin Williams and Fernando Cruz. It was an up-and-down season for all the New York ‘pen, and all these additions didn’t stabilize the group down the stretch. Luke Weaver blew a one-run lead in Sport 1 of the Wild Card Collection, and Bednar allowed an insurance coverage run to attain within the ninth inning of that recreation as effectively. Williams and Cruz seemed strong of their two reduction appearances towards Boston, and Bednar bounced again with two scoreless innings to shut out Video games 2 and three.

Toronto’s reduction corps additionally suffered by some ups-and-downs through the 12 months, nevertheless it was a greater unit throughout the entire season. Jeff Hoffman has been strong as their new nearer, although he suffered by some struggles throughout a tough August; he blew three saves throughout that month. The group additionally took some time to filter by all their reduction choices to search out their greatest pitchers to position into high-leverage roles. By the stretch run, it was commerce deadline acquisition Seranthony Domínguez and transformed starter Yariel Rodríguez performing because the setup males, with Brendon Little and his unhittable curveball performing because the fireman. That quartet in the back of the ‘pen was nails in September; Toronto’s relievers put up a 3.42 ERA and a 3.60 FIP, ninth and seventh greatest in baseball, respectively, through the closing month of the season.

The Blue Jays additionally enter this sequence with a banged up lineup that was slumping fairly considerably in September. That offensive slide coincided with the damage to Bo Bichette on September 6, suffered in a violent crash at house plate towards the Yankees no much less. Previous to that date, Toronto had produced a 116 wRC+ and was scoring 5 runs per recreation; after Bichette was positioned on the IL, the group’s wRC+ dropped to 87 and so they scored simply 4.3 runs per recreation over their closing 20 video games of the season. Regardless of working onerous to ramp up his baseball exercise this week, it’s possible Bichette might be left off Toronto’s ALDS roster. His absence may very well be a key difference-maker within the sequence.

Whereas Bichette’s damage left a fairly large gap within the lineup, it wouldn’t have been as huge of an issue if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a variety of the Jays’ different key hitters hadn’t all slumped on the similar time through the closing month of the season:

Guerrero has solely collected one extra-base hit since Bichette hit the IL, a double on September 21. That’s significantly worrying as a result of his energy output this 12 months has fallen again to the place it was throughout his troubling 2023 season. Fortunately, a resurgent George Springer has carried the Jays offense for a lot of the season. He’s crushing the ball once more after adjusting his strategy to be extra selective and hunt fastballs, and his 166 wRC+ this season was a profession excessive and the third-best mark in baseball. Regardless of being hampered by two separate IL stints, Daulton Varsho nonetheless managed to take a giant step ahead on the plate this 12 months. After offseason rotator cuff surgical procedure, he began swinging quite a bit tougher this season, main to an enormous spike in his energy output. His 123 wRC+ was a profession excessive, and he blasted 20 house runs in simply 71 video games.

Elsewhere within the lineup, the Blue Jays welcomed again Anthony Santander on the finish of September. After signing a giant free agent contract through the offseason, the outfielder actually struggled by his first few months in Toronto after which was sidelined for a lot of the summer time with a shoulder damage. He’ll slot in in direction of the top of the lineup, although it’s fairly unclear what sort of manufacturing could be anticipated from him at this level.

With a pair of wonderful left-handed pitchers within the Yankees rotation, platoons might be a giant issue for the Blue Jays lineup. They’ve three positions that rotate relying on the handedness of the opposing pitcher, which suggests Toronto’s bench might play an outsized position on this sequence:

Addison Barger seemed like he was within the midst of a breakout early within the 12 months, however he cooled off considerably over the ultimate few months of the season. Defensive wiz Andrés Giménez has been manning shortstop in Bichette’s absence, however he provides strategy to Davis Schneider when a left-hander is on the mound. These platoons allowed the Blue Jays to run a fairly impartial platoon break up this 12 months (.328 wOBA vs. LHP, .331 wOBA vs. RHP).

As for the Yankees lineup, they’re coming off a Wild Card Collection the place they scored eight runs throughout three video games. Within the postseason, the place runs come at a premium, that’s not a horrible efficiency, nevertheless it’s a fairly large drop off from their common season manufacturing. Aaron Choose and Anthony Volpe led the way in which with 4 hits apiece and Ben Rice had a giant house run on Wednesday. Giancarlo Stanton (one double) and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (two singles) have been principally bottled up, although I’m certain Chisholm will recognize dealing with Toronto’s rotation stuffed with right-handed pitchers. The apparent participant to key in on is Choose; he led the AL in batting common, on-base proportion, slugging proportion, wRC+, and WAR in probably the greatest batting seasons ever. Conserving him in test needs to be precedence primary for the Blue Jays, which suggests all of the supporting hitters within the Yankees lineup want to select up the slack.

The most important differentiator between these two groups may very well be their defenses. The Blue Jays have probably the greatest group defenses in baseball, with Alejandro Kirk a standout behind the plate, and Varsho, Giménez, and Ernie Clement all among the many greatest at their respective positions. In distinction, the Yankees protection has been shaky all season lengthy, although it grades out round league common. Trent Grisham has been stretched a bit in heart area and Volpe is going by it at shortstop. After which there are Choose’s throwing points in proper area since he suffered a elbow damage in late July. The Purple Sox took benefit of his weakened arm in Sport 1 of the Wild Card Collection, and it appears possible that it’ll come up once more this sequence. The Blue Jays additionally sport the bottom strikeout price within the majors — they like to put the ball in play. That might put some further pressure on New York’s fielders, which might give Toronto the slight edge in a really tightly contested sequence.

On paper, these two groups appear to be they’re fairly evenly matched. Each groups had improbable offenses through the common season and the pitching staffs look comparable — the Yankees might need the sting in beginning pitching however the Blue Jays might need the stronger bullpen. However once you have a look at the contours of every of their seasons, New York appears prefer it’s peaking on the proper time whereas Toronto is dealing with some vital hurdles.