Reds followers, pay attention up. This isn’t a lot a preview as it’s a blueprint for a way the Reds may upset the Dodgers – and let’s be actual, it could be an upset, they’re the Dodgers. As for the Dodgers followers amongst you, don’t get too labored up. You’re certainly studying this preview to determine whether or not the Reds are going to upset the Dodgers, so that is simply what you’re searching for too. And all you impartial followers? I’m fairly positive that if you happen to’re studying this, it’s since you’re questioning whether or not the Reds can upset the Dodgers.
They will, clearly. It’ll simply take just a few fastidiously deliberate steps. The 1st step: get at the very least two nice begins out of your three starters. The Reds line up with Hunter Greene for Recreation 1, Nick Lodolo for Recreation 2, and Andrew Abbott for Recreation 3. Good begins in two of these video games – say, two or fewer runs in six or extra innings – will go alongside approach in direction of conserving Cincinnati in vary to strike. All three can be preferable, after all, however two seems like an absolute necessity given the uphill battle you’ll be studying about shortly.
Greene, after all, is the very best probability for a kind of aforementioned nice begins. That’s simply what he does now. He’s coming off a month of brilliance, and he shut down the Cubs’ sixth-ranked offense (110 mixture wRC+) in a whole recreation shutout on September 18. The Dodgers’ second-ranked offense (113 mixture wRC+) will probably be more durable to wrangle, however more durable will not be the identical as not possible and even unbelievable. For those who made me choose one starter in all of baseball to win the following recreation, I’d choose… nicely, I’d choose Paul Skenes, and I’d in all probability go along with Tarik Skubal subsequent. However Greene can be in my high 5, and so for our upset blueprint, let’s simply rely on him giving us an ideal recreation.
Lodolo and Abbott have been each glorious this yr as nicely. Lodolo took a step ahead in 2025, largely by limiting walks and leaning extra on his changeup in opposition to righties. He’s coming off one in every of his finest begins of the season – 12 strikeouts in 6 1/3 scoreless innings in opposition to the Pirates – however he had an uneven month general; earlier than that begin, the final time he’d completed six innings was in July. Abbott additionally had a breakout season, and like Lodolo, command had loads to do with it. He too appeared to expire of gasoline down the stretch, with solely one in every of his final seven begins going six or extra innings. The Reds are in all probability going to wish extra innings – and an excellent efficiency – out of a kind of two.
Their obstacles in securing these potential sensible performances? Oh, simply MVP’s row. There are strategies for shutting down Los Angeles’ offense. Sadly, neither has been confirmed to work. Fairly merely, although, it’s a must to cease the Dodgers from strolling, and it’s a must to cease them from hitting residence runs. They’re second in baseball in each residence run price and stroll price, and the 2 feed on one another in a virtuous cycle.
The highest of the order is the crux of the problem for the Reds’ upset bid. Shohei Ohtani, on his technique to a 3rd straight MVP award, doesn’t have many holes in his recreation. Theoretically, his swing is large enough that he will be overwhelmed with excessive warmth and diving hooks. In follow, our pitch-by-pitch knowledge lists eight pitch varieties Ohtani has seen this season, and he’s been above common in opposition to all eight. Final yr, he was above common in opposition to knuckleballs for good measure.
There’s loads of room for hope on the Cincy aspect right here, although. Greene’s fastball/slider/splitter assault in opposition to lefties is well-suited to going through Ohtani, and Lodolo’s angular supply might give him matches; Ohtani has been merely nice relatively than transcendent in opposition to lefties in his illustrious profession, and Lodolo is great in opposition to same-handed batters general. Abbott has much more excessive splits than Lodolo. His sweeper, which he largely eschews in opposition to righties, was the most effective lefty/lefty pitches in baseball this yr, and he threw it a 3rd of the time.
It doesn’t get a lot simpler after Ohtani. Mookie Betts had a depressing first half of the season, however he hit his stride in September and appears to be totally wholesome after a season-long battle to get better from a nasty abdomen bug. Freddie Freeman lurks behind him. The Dodgers platoon an honest quantity, too, they usually’ll hit Max Muncy cleanup in opposition to Greene and Teoscar Hernández in opposition to the lefties. In different phrases, the primary half of the lineup goes to be completely terrifying each time by way of no matter who’s pitching.
The excellent news is that they didn’t construct the total lineup out of MVPs. The Michael Conforto/Tommy Edman/Andy Pages/Ben Rortvedt backside of the lineup isn’t the worst backside of a lineup amongst any playoff workforce, nevertheless it doesn’t stand out in both path the way in which the highest half does. Survive the preliminary gauntlet, and you’ll deal with the remainder. However, let the underside half of the lineup get on base, and also you’ll have the very best hitters on this planet developing with runners in scoring place (all of the bases are in scoring place when the Dodgers are hitting). That’s, to place it calmly, not the place you need to be. Cincinnati’s street to an upset certainly doesn’t contain numerous manufacturing from Rortvedt, for instance.
However, possibly manufacturing from Rortvedt gained’t be a difficulty. He’s within the lineup as a result of Will Smith, yet one more elite bat, is on the shelf with a damaged hand. I don’t count on Smith again for this sequence, however Dave Roberts hasn’t dominated it out. Nonetheless, that’s in all probability a mid-October concern, which advantages our upset plan right here.
To be trustworthy with you, the underside of the lineup isn’t so forgiving to lefties. Edman and Pages each transfer up within the lineup in opposition to southpaws, and Muncy and Conforto depart for extra righty bats. That brings me to the following key for Cincy: the bullpen. There’s nothing too sophisticated right here: Cincy has a bushel of righties, and it’s additional bolstered by high prospect Chase Burns, briefly within the ‘pen after an IL stint. If I have been them, I’d be saving my very high leverage arms for the highest half of the lineup and daring the Dodgers to go full platoon shuffle by bringing in mid-leverage righties in opposition to the underside half.
Are these matchups good? I imply, no, not particularly. It’s the freaking Dodgers. But when the Reds keep on with the plan and get two lengthy begins, these video games will probably be eminently winnable. This goes with out saying, however they’ll be all palms on deck in each recreation. I’m often a fan of pondering holistically about the whole sequence and planning relaxation days round avoiding back-to-back appearances, however this isn’t a standard scenario. Cincinnati goes to be an enormous underdog in each recreation. In the event that they win the primary one and have a sliver of a shot on the second, load administration and enjoying for tomorrow ought to each exit the window.
Proper, in order that’s how I see the Reds slowing the Dodgers offense sufficient to present themselves an opportunity. Whether or not they take that probability comes right down to the opposite aspect of the ball, the place the Dodgers have a terrifying rotation of their very own. Blake Snell will open the sequence, and he’s on some type of run: 34 strikeouts in 24 innings in September en path to a 2.25 ERA. Yoshinobu Yamamoto principally pitched like that for the whole season, and if you happen to thought Snell’s September pretty much as good, Yamamoto had 34 strikeouts of his personal (27 innings) and a 0.67 ERA. Oh yeah – their third starter is that Ohtani man, and his ERA in September was a flat zero. He even threw his longest begin of the yr, six innings, in his final outing. This can be a steep hill to climb.
The Cincinnati offense begins and stops with Elly De La Cruz. Sadly, that led to numerous stopping within the second half, as a result of Elly was mired in a hellacious, injury-affected droop that briefly noticed him dropped to seventh within the batting order. He’s rebounded since, however which De La Cruz we get on this sequence might go a great distance in direction of figuring out the winner. Even enjoying in one of many homer-friendliest stadiums within the league, the Reds have been twenty first in residence runs this yr. The Dodgers’ high starters are so good that baserunners will probably be at a premium, which implies hitting the ball over the wall is of significant significance, and De La Cruz has the sunshine tower energy to go away the yard at any time.
Behind De La Cruz (nicely, each in entrance of and behind, on condition that his spot within the lineup is a shifting goal), Spencer Steer and Tyler Stephenson look to me like further sources of energy. They’re each wholesome and enjoying nicely, giving additional size to a lineup that has at occasions appeared about three batters too quick. I’d usually record Noelvi Marte right here as nicely, and I suppose I’m itemizing him, however whereas I’ve been impressed by his efficiency in proper discipline as of late, he’s in a droop that makes Elly’s look mundane. He slashed .191/.214/.287 in September, and this isn’t some BABIP mirage; he struck out a 3rd of the time and principally by no means walked. Marte is one other man who’s able to producing the homers Cincy wants, however I don’t just like the matchup with L.A.’s energy arms, which is why I highlighted some lower-in-the-order names first.
On the high of the order, TJ Friedl is the man to observe. Friedl continues to be an underrated gem; he’s a middle fielder with elite on-base abilities, and he led the league in bunt hits to cement his spot in my coronary heart. If the Reds do their half and hit some dingers this sequence, it’s going to out of the blue matter immensely whether or not Friedl can work a stroll or drop down an ideal bunt to get pushed in. Gavin Lux has an identical general offensive profile to Friedl, on-base over energy from the left aspect, although with extra strikeouts, fewer walks, and none of these bunt hits. That’ll make his job tougher than Friedl’s, however they’re each working in direction of the identical objective – stand safely on a base whereas somebody after them hits one out of Dodger Stadium, the very best place in baseball for righties to hit residence runs.
Whereas some bolts of lightning from their boppers and free bases from their walkers can be useful, the actual work of the Reds offense goes to be to get these dang Dodgers starters off the mound. Did you see these ERAs? Did you see these names? That’s not a rotation you need to tangle with. If the field scores for this sequence don’t characteristic many pitchers per recreation on the Los Angeles aspect, this isn’t going to finish nicely for Cincinnati. The earlier that Snell, Yamamoto, and Ohtani are out of the sport, the earlier the bullpen will become involved, and that’s the place the Reds must feast.
The Dodgers signed the highest two relievers on the free agent market final winter. Sadly for them, Tanner Scott and Blake Treinen are a part of the issue: Scott has been downright terrible (4.74 ERA, 4.70 FIP) and Treinen has been even worse (5.40 ERA, 4.75 FIP, although in solely 26 innings). These are the relievers they went out and obtained on function! That duo and Alex Vesia drew the best leverage assignments in September, with Vesia trying stable whereas Scott and Treinen melted down. Usually, that will make Vesia the nearer, however issues are by no means that straightforward for the ever-complicated Dodgers.
First, they may maintain utilizing their bullpen stars in massive spots. Second, they’ve two extremely heralded beginning pitchers simply cooling their heels and searching for one thing to do. Roki Sasaki, the Japanese phenom who has missed a lot of his rookie yr with damage, made two appearances out of the bullpen in his return from the IL, and he principally appears to be like like an elite nearer already. He tops out within the triple digits, throws his mind-bending splitter about half the time, and leaves his sketchy slider on the sidelines. Two good appearances don’t erase a disappointing season, and Sasaki’s fastball has appeared extraordinarily hittable all year long, however the additional velocity from relieving and a simplified pitch combine have me prepared to consider that he’ll be a difference-maker. Is he L.A.’s finest reliever? I’d say so if it weren’t for the paragraph you’re about to learn.
Tyler Glasnow can also be an choice within the Dodger bullpen. That man is a monster, the most effective pitchers in baseball when he’s wholesome. He’s additionally the workforce’s fourth starter, and this sequence is simply three video games, so you are able to do the maths. He hasn’t pitched out of the bullpen since he performed in Pittsburgh seven years in the past, nevertheless it’s not arduous to think about the way it might end up nicely. Once more, he’s the most effective starters in baseball! I don’t even understand how he’d simplify his pitch combine, as a result of he throws 4 nice pitches and makes use of all of them roughly evenly, however who cares? I assume the Dodgers would like to not use him in order that they will maintain him contemporary for a possible divisional sequence, however he’s too proficient to not be an choice in the event that they want innings.
Another choice, as if these guys weren’t sufficient, is Emmet Sheehan, who produced a 2.82 ERA this yr and but clearly has no spot within the postseason rotation. It’s wild to write down that, nevertheless it’s simply true; these high 4 starters are simply ludicrous. In any case, that frees up Sheehan for multi-inning responsibility. Past him, Jack Dreyer obtained some appears to be like in high-leverage spots and carried out nicely. Justin Wrobleski appears to be like sharp to me too. There are positively loads of sturdy choices on this group. The actual query is how Roberts balances out-of-form veterans, out-of-routine starters, and the workhorses of the common season in developing with a postseason deployment plan.
Is a Reds upset seemingly? Nope. Our ZiPS game-by-game odds, which I believe are one of the best ways to take a look at playoff predictions due to their granularity, give the Reds a one-in-three probability at a sequence win, with Greene’s begin the one recreation the place their odds are even 40%. That sounds proper to me; regardless of a middling file, this Dodgers workforce is terrifying. But when that surprising outcome does occur, I believe it’ll be as a result of they adopted my blueprint. It’s simple. Simply shut down their highly effective lineup twice, have your ragtag squad chase their elite rotation out of the sport, after which beat the thriller field that’s the Dodger bullpen. Oh, and naturally, then have your bullpen lock down two wins. Voila!