Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/25/25

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12:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: “Give me an introduction message for a Dan Szymborski FanGraphs chat that sounds prefer it’s from a deranged individual with restricted reference to actuality and an obsession with historical past who additionally actually actually like FanGraphs”
12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: “Mates, Romans, countrymen, lend me your WAR calculations! I rise right this moment on this digital amphitheater not as Caesar, not as Napoleon, however as a humble pilgrim trudging throughout the blood-soaked battlefields of historical past in pursuit of a single shining reality: FanGraphs is the Rosetta Stone of civilization. When Rome collapsed, did the barbarians have wOBA? No. When Napoleon marched on Moscow, did he seek the advice of ZiPS projections? He didn’t — and look what occurred! But right here we stand within the 12 months of Our Lord 2025, blessed to witness the holy gospel of OBP+, xFIP, and Dan Szymborski’s inscrutable oracles. I’ve not slept in three nights, my parakeet now is aware of what BABIP is, and I carved the FanGraphs emblem into the oak desk of my landlord whereas screaming about FIP- minus. Brothers, sisters, everlasting strugglers in opposition to the darkness of ignorance, we collect to not speak of climate or bread, however of spin charges and ageing curves, of regression to the imply and the merciless march of time itself! Historical past collapses into the current momen
12:02
Visitor: I’ve at all times assumed that hitters with giant platoon splits would age extra poorly than these with extra balanced splits, however just lately realized that my proof was solely anecdotal. Is there important statistical proof that helps this? Thanks.
12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve not discovered this. It’s doable merely that they’re extra exploitable, that the final declines makes them extra clearly platoonable than a equally proficient participant with small splits
12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Just like the 350/500 man an ages to be a 330/450 man and nonetheless hits 310/430 and 340/460
12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: However perhaps the PLATOONY 350/500 guys is out of the blue now a 280/350 and 390/550 man the place he as soon as awas a 300/400 and 420/600 man
12:04
Visitor: How lengthy does it take for a man to shed the “harm threat” label, both in response to you or ZiPS? Carlos Rodon has been utterly wholesome 3 of the final 4 seasons, but I really feel like each time you write about him you point out his harm historical past/how ZiPS is admittedly frightened about him getting injured
12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve really discovered they by no means ENTIRELY shed it, even when it fades away. Typically talking, offensive gamers are inclined to regress towards largely wholesome and pitchers are inclined to regress towards largely healthy-ish
12:05
Jeremy: Query impressed by Ben’s latest piece on predicting second-half document from first-half document or first-half run differential: how do you’re feeling about the truth that it’s exhausting to beat a very easy forecasting mannequin like those Ben checked out, and apparently unattainable to beat these easy fashions by all that a lot? Does it frustrate you? Or does it offer you a way of self-satisfaction, like if you lastly defeat a very powerful remaining boss in a online game? Or what?
12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Predicting the longer term is tough. Additionally, I spend comparable little time fear about these center projections; it’s calibrating the highs and lows that’s essentially the most fascinating!
12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: However predicting the longer term is at all times exhausting, and at all times will likely be. Life, and baseball, are unsure
12:06
Visitor: Decide’s 3-run homer final evening was his second of the 12 months and ended a streak of 44 straight homers he had hit with both one man on or nobody on. Is that this some form of document?
12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Actually, I do not know!
12:07
Dave Shutton: Who’re you? The place are you going?
12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: DO YOUR HOMEWORK SHUTTON
12:07
Billy: For what place have ageing curves historically been the steepest? 1B and 2B? And has that begun to alter in any respect in latest many years?
12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: C tends to be the weirdest, 2B/SS essentially the most
12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haven’t discovered any enormous latest modifications
12:07
Adam: Ought to the Dodgers simply piggyback starters for the entire playoffs?
12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure; with the Dodgers, I do not know what their wholesome workers will quantity to per week from  now!
12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Which makes it irritating
12:08
Mr.Unbelievable: Will the tiger break my fucking coronary heart Daniel?
12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They mended it final 12 months, so it’s solely honest they break it now!
12:08
Lars: What are the most probably causes a participant vastly outperforms expectations? For instance, retrospectively, do you assume there’s something you possibly can have accomplished to higher predict Cal Raleigh’s 12 months?
12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: BABIP is normally an enormous clue, even for hitters
12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: then it’s typically merely having an unexplainable good season that doesn’t stick
12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: then an explainable one which does
12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t assume so. Right here’s the factor with projections: you don’t really even know for those who have been proper AFTER the season.
12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like, say Raleigh ends with 60. Ought to which have *really* been the median projection? Ought to now we have mentioned coming into the season that he was as prone to hit 73 homers as, say, when contemplating skewness, 25 homers? Becasue that’s what you’re saying if you challenge somebody to hit 60
12:10
Cal Raleigh: Is the reason for Mariners WS odds dropping from 21% to 16.5% as a result of they’re inching nearer to the 1 seed and therefor the harder path?
12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A few of it’s that, a few of it that there’s been a little bit bug for just a few days that was giving AL groups an excessive amount of house area benefit in WS
12:11
Lars: Individuals speak about groups which might be “constructed for the playoffs” lots. Has this been studied/confirmed?
12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No. Apart from being prime heavy and to a smaller extent, be extra house run-reliant than common, the Venn diagram of constructing a staff for the playoffs and constructing a superb staff is a circle
12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Your humble host wrote about this!
12:13
Billy: At what level in a participant’s profession does zips assume minor league stats are not related? Or are they at all times related to a point?
12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: THey keep related about so long as previous MLB stats do
12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: When you get previous 4 years of stats (and a bit fewer for very younger and really previous gamers), the older information shortly loses relevance
12:13
Adam: Will we ever see one thing just like the ’97 Marlins, by way of signing a bunch of free brokers to speed up their timeline, successful a World Sequence, and instantly blowing it up?  What’s to cease a smaller market staff from making an enormous splash with the intention of promoting off quickly thereafter if it doesn’t work?
12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I feel the factor is, that small market groups aren’t wild monetary gamblers
12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and if it really works out poorly, then it’s possible these gamers dropped in worth!
12:15
John: Who’s your AL MVP this 12 months?
12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Decide. However I’m an NL ROY, so my vote right here doesn’t matter!
12:15
Visitor: why do you assume LLMs are so dangerous at humor– is it as a result of most of us aren’t humorous (the dataset they’re skilled on) or due to the character of humor (it needs to be one thing shocking or a twist, which LLMs are explicitly designed to keep away from)
12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They really might be fairly humorous at occasions for those who brute drive it and know tips on how to squeeze issues out of it. However the issue is that public chatbots are inclined to take the middlest floor, and that normally kills humor
12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do know most individuals don’t like AI, however I do — I used to be utilizing it method earlier than it was an enormous factor and coaching my very own datasets to get enjoyable particular issues (like my band names or participant nicknames). Suffice it to say, a variety of this falls beneath the umbrella of prediction algorithms, so it shouldn’t be shocking that I’m . However I’m out of my very own mental curiosity and amusement, not automating my very own duties or changing my staff (not that I’ve any)
12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Most I *really* use AI for is to double-check visible primary code for me
12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And accomplished proper, you CAN get some humor out of it. It’s nonetheless very hit and miss, however I as soon as requested it for some imply Dan Szymborski insults and there have been numerous jabs that have been surprisingly competent
12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: “Dan’s legacy will likely be this: Invoice James revolutionized baseball, Nate Silver revolutionized politics, and Dan Szymborski revolutionized the “shut tab” button.”
12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: “Dan has the construct of a person who considers “strolling to the mailbox” cardio.”
12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: “Dan appears to be like just like the type of man who asks for the Wi-Fi password earlier than saying hi there.”
12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: “He appears to be like like a man who corrects your grammar whereas getting rejected on relationship apps.”
12:21
Adam: Will Andrew Friedman principally by no means signal a FA reliever once more after this?
12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: lol, he may not!
12:21
matt w: So the PIrates and Blue Jays are usually not going to satisfy at .500 all-time franchise document this 12 months. I feel they have been each one sport under at one level this season, and so they may’ve each wound up at .500 if Skenes had received his Sept. 16 begin, however that didn’t occur. Nonetheless, with the Pirates at present precisely .500 and the Jays 5 under, there’s an opportunity they may do it early subsequent season if the schedule strains up, with out even making any heroic assumptions concerning the Pirates getting good.

So my query is, how are the cats?

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It may have! It was enjoyable working the numbers for the mailbag query although
12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Cats I consider are good. I’m away for the week and mother’s been feeding them and he or she mentioned she noticed the three boys, however right this moment, not Cassie, however the two sibling cats have been brawling and hyper and Cassie normally finds a quiet hiding place when the catlets are lively
12:22
Billy: Do you know that, as of like a month in the past, Sandy Alcantara and German Marquez had the identical profession xFIP-
12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I didn’t. Although Marquez did have a superb run
12:22
Billy: What’s normally the reason for a drop off just like the one Austin Riley has had the final couple years, the place his bat pace, barrel charges, and whiff/chase are principally the identical however he’s producing at a far decrease stage? Is it largely luck or one thing else?
12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If there’s a superb rationalization, it’s not one I do know
12:23
Goddamn PED period: Let Cal have his award. I feel the issue I’ve is that the truth that Decide is simply the 4th to ever have 50×4, EVER, and is about to be solely the third individual EVER to win a batting title with 50 hr is being obscured by the truth that most of us keep in mind the PED period the place 50hr appeared regular, and averages have been Walker/Coors, and so forth. I wager if this occurred when not everybody remembered Greg Vaughn placing up 50 or Brady Anderson his run right here could be extra appreciated. (And actually, if Altuve hadn’t benefited from his teammates stealing data, nobody would care as a lot, as 3 MVPs feels BIGGER.) With all this mentioned, I don’t have any purpose to assume he received’t merely go up there subsequent 12 months and put up one other 3/4/6
12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It definitely doesn’t assist that batting titles simply aren’t as massive a deal as they was
12:23
Lars: One other Cal Raleigh query! There’s been lots made from Cal hitting essentially the most change hit house runs ever and the way it’s so tough as a result of you need to put together from either side of the plate. Isn’t it very clearly a bonus and folks wouldn’t change hit if it weren’t?
12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that’s my place
12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s not prefer it’s a handicap that he selected to tackle
12:25
Adam: Does Soto show that anybody can study to turn into a superb basestealer?  Or does he simply show that Juan Soto can do something he units his thoughts to?
12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Actually the previous, although on the very sluggish portion of the size, there’s a restrict
12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like me as an adolescent. Even in higher form, I used to be ALWAYS godawful sluggish, largely as a result of truth I’ve a hip that doesn’t rotate fairly accurately from delivery, and it could have been a traumatic repair on the time
12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Humorous be aware, my mother and father have been alleged to WATCH the hip challenge, which they completely forgot about. Then my mother keep in mind once I was in my late 30s and I used to be all “goddamit mother, this may have been helpful to know many years in the past”
12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And I secretly surprise if I’m going to drop useless at 50 as a result of there was a tough to detect congenital coronary heart defect I used to be alleged to regulate
12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I used to be fast sufficient to play second when not pitching just because I reacted shortly, triangulated shortly, and since I’m absurdly aggressive when motivated, I’d cost at each ball on the threat of life and limb. I took SO many dangerous hops into the face as a child
12:30
Matt VW: Tangentially associated to the Decide query: certainly one of my favourite stats ever is that in ’99 Pedro gave up 9 house runs all 12 months and so they have been all solo photographs.
12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t be that stunned, he didn’t enable many baseurnners!
12:31
TameImp: Did nobody need DJ Lemehaiu or did he simply not wish to play?
12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Each to an extent?
12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve gotten the impression that LeMahieu’s on the sting of retirement except he has JUST the best alternative
12:32
Talfred: How possible do you assume it’s that PEDs are extensively utilized in MLB however the masking brokers are far superior to the testing protocols?
12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I feel there’s an honest likelihood, although I don’t assume it’s THAT extensive
12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve bother caring an excessive amount of about PEDs, actually; I see it largely as a participant well being challenge, which is unquestionably a “their enterprise” and never a “my enterprise” factor.
12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m an analyst, not an advocate, in any case
12:34
TameImp: Who do you assume goes to signal the extra underwater contract off a profession 12 months for a middle fielder- Bader or Grisham?
12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For me, no query Grisham
12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (IF one was to signal an underwater deal)
12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Grisham’s acquired a pair years on Bader and his offensive efficiency is extra explainable
12:35
Matt VW: If the Dodgers win and clinch right this moment, they principally don’t have anything to play for in opposition to the Mariners this weekend. Would this have any significant influence on Raleigh’s possibilities for 63?
12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: SOME. I think about the M’s would let him attempt to get as many because it’s veyr possible they’ve a bye
12:35
nat: Daring prediction (not data-based): Yoshida is about to go off, spray line drives all over, and make his contract value it within the subsequent month. Associated query: Will Flemming mentioned on the radio final week that Masa was LAUNCHING in BP earlier than the sport (when he didn’t really launch, however launched later within the week). Is BP tracked on statcast? Is/would there be any sign from BP EV?
12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t assume BP is? I might be incorrect
12:36
Visitor: Bobby Witt Jr. – o/u line on profession WAR – set at 60 or decrease?
12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ll say over now. Hopefully if he’s not, you received’t be capable of discover this!
12:36
Oaktown Blues: Did Leo De Vries discovering fast success in AA whereas exhibiting extra energy meaningfully have an effect on his ZiPS? (Additionally curious if ZiPS incorporates minor league postseason information, the place he hit 5 HRs)
12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not by a MASSIVE quantity. And sure
12:37
TameImp: Ought to day 1 of the wild card spherical be a nationwide vacation?
12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No; why have a vacation to commemorate the third by way of sixth place finishers?
12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t desire a James G. Blaine tire sale
12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And Presidents Day ought to return to Washington and Lincoln! I don’t wish to implicitly have fun the lesser lights. Fuck Millard Fillmore, even when he’s simply 70 year-old Alec Baldwin with a time machine
12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski:
12:39
JeffBagwell: Will the Purple Sox have something to play for the final 3 video games
12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not after they clinch!
12:40
Visitor: is the “house run benefit” within the playoffs as a result of a) runs are tougher to come back by within the playoffs as a result of there are higher pitchers, so subsequently b) you’re extra prone to rating runs on homers than having the ability to depend on station-to-station runs?
12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s my working speculation
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Take a look at nice pitchers which were meh in playoffs. REALLY regularly it’s as a result of homoers acquired to them. Take a look at Kershaw vs. common season
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: homers are REALLY risky for pitchers. BABIP is extra risky, however not fairly as immediately impactful
12:41
Visitor: will davy Andrews’ article on this season being boring be presumably the worst ageing article of all time
12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can consider a dozen of my articles or weblog entries ageing worse immediately!
12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I hated the Soriano-Wilkerson commerce for the Soriano facet!
12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (although in equity, it got here out later that Brad Wilkerson’s shoulder was extra screwed up than was publicly recognized)
12:43
When it catches up: I ponder for those who noticed this with Trout: his first 12 months or two was so superb however projections are so conservative that it takes some time to consider “okay high quality he’s gonna simply be a 9 WAR man” after which he began to interrupt. I ponder if that’s principally the place we’re with Decide, the projections appear to lastly assume “yeah Idk I assume it’s an 8 WAR man” after which he lastly slows down. (I understand 8 WAR is “slowing down” for him.)
12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I dunno, it didn’t take ZiPS THAT lengthy to catch up
12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: His 2013 ZiPS projection was 8 WAR
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: on my finish, trout WAR projecdtions beginning in 2011: 2.9, 4.2, 8.1, 9.6, 9.6, 9.3, 8.6, 8.6, 8.8, 8.2, 6.2, 4.8, 4.7, 3.1,
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: that’s the complete season 2020 projecdion
12:48
Matt: Settle a bizarre argument: Persons are attempting to inform me Cal’s sixtieth HR ball is value greater than Trout’s four-hundredth HR ball. That’s insane as of now, proper? Trout was already a slam dunk HOF man when he was Cal’s age.
12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Is it although?
12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: there are much more 400 HR guys than 60 homers guys
12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: there are loads extra fascinating Mike Trout balls
12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: however that is possible THE coolest house run ball of Raleigh’s profession
12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (and Raleigh making the Corridor of Fame sometime isn’t all that loopy regardless that he has a methods to go)
12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Raleigh’s principally two years of 2024 stage play from being prime 30 JAWS already and that doesn’t care about framing
12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There will likely be some preferring Trout’s ball although; worth is within the eyes of the beholder
12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d PERSONALLY worth a Miggy homer from 2013 excess of his quantity 500 ball
12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: it had an equal a part of him making the milestone, and it got here off teh bat of AWESOME miggy, not — let’s be trustworthy — when he was a foul function participant who wasn’t nearly as good as half of Triple-A 1B on the time and solely performed due to his historical past and wage
12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: why do I desire a homer from shitty miggy over beast mode miggy?
12:54
Coby Mayo: I lead the Orioles in place participant WAR in September. Am I good now?
12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I certain hope so, for a number of causes!
12:54
Skeptic: Hey Dan, I feel one of many worst outcomes of the steroid period is that when somebody like Cal Raleigh hits 60 homers, my first thought is “is he juicing?” Unsure there’s a query there, however admire your work as at all times!
12:54
Lord Thunder: What’s extra accountable for the Astros’ run seemingly coming to an finish: the cumulative results of fixed expertise drain or accidents?
12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Accidents definitely don’t assist
12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The staff’s additionally lots much less artistic than they was, particularly with the lineup
12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: HOWEVER, that’s my private feeling, and I may have bias due to Creane’s modifications
12:55
Oaktown Blues: Insofar as ZiPS ROS might be regarded as ZiPS’ greatest guess at a gamers true expertise stage, it appears that evidently ZiPS hasn’t completely purchased into Tyler Soderstrom’s breakout (projecting a 108 wRC+ ROS in comparison with his season mark of 127). I’m curious for those who (or full-fat ZiPS, however that’s a much bigger ask) are extra of a believer than that?
12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: full-fat ZiPS likes each Soderstrom and easpecially  Kurtz much more than ROS
12:55
Visitor: you hit with the brand new Trout card within the Present but? unbelievably rakes
12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, I’m away, so I haven’t accomplished any program expertise since final Thursday
12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: program CONTENT
12:57
John: Anyone who thinks Cal isn’t the MVP this 12 months clearly don’t actually perceive what it takes to catch 120 innings whereas placing up his numbers in T-Cellular. Interval.
12:57
Visitor: do you employ ZiPS to flip playing cards in MLB The Present? In that case how profitable are you at it?
12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, I’m arbitrage in MLB the Present
12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 2023 was my greatest 12 months at 4.6 million in internet revenue averaging 9,177 stubs per commerce
12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Jogs my memory of my good ol’ days buying and selling within the late 90s
1:00
Honking: Who’s honking outdoors my window and why?
1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Your mother since you didn’t name
1:00
Eminor3rd: I really LIKE the zombie runner rule, however hate the concept of robotic umps. What’s incorrect with me? Ought to we even attempt to attempt for some sort of conceptual inner consistency as fan?
1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: consistency is overrated
1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: although you’re incorrect!
1:00
Visitor: Hey Dan love listening to you each as soon as in awhile with Brock Huard and Mike Salks radio present in Seattle. Do you assume fWAR does a superb job calculating worth for the Catcher place? To me it looks as if its unattainable to quantify
1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s exhausting to quantify, however I feel now we have an affordable guess. We give a LOT of runs to a man for taking part in catcher
1:01
John: as Jodi Ernst mentioned “we’re all going to die “
1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I imply, she wasn’t incorrect, regardless that it’s a reasonably dumb factor to say
1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We *all* make tradeoffs, each personal and public, that hasten or delay deaths
1:01
Marshall: A little bit of a pedantic query, however do you contemplate this a breakout 12 months for Raleigh? Contemplating he averaged 4.5 WAR his first three seasons, I feel “no”.
1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Properly, to THIS extent perhaps
1:01
Sherpa: I’m puzzled that Fangraphs at all times give gamers who DH a “adverse defensive” worth.  Like, how?  By definition a DH doesn’t add or subtract any worth from how nicely a staff performs protection? Shouldn’t or not it’s simply 0?  Additionally surprise why Fangraphs hates “Matt” Michael Busch’s protection at 1B as a result of the attention check offers him fairly good vary.
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In comparison with a median participant a DH does
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (Ultimately, I’m assured it’ll match 1B defensive worth)
1:02
Dan the Rookie: You have been a former NL ROY winner?
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: NO method!
1:02
drplantwrench: with the oncoming of ABS, i wanna say that i believe framing is extremely foolish and we should always welcome the tip of it, regardless of what catchers say – agree/disagree?
1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I agree. I like there being ability issues, however I don’t like tricking the judges
1:03
Code Curious: You talked about that there was a bug within the playoff odds unfairly weighting the benefit of home-field for AL groups.  Should you’re comfy, was it new this 12 months or only a freshly found bug?
1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It was like as of final week
1:03
Adam: Have you ever watched Taskmaster?  Looks like it’d be up your alley.
1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I maintain that means to, but it surely’s on my to do checklist
1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: the factor is, video games are inclined to get precedence over issues I passively watch
1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and I have already got a steam backlog which means I’ve to dwell to 120 to play all of them even when I by no means purchase one other sport. And I received’t and I’ll
1:04
drplantwrench: expertise ==  content material, dan szymborski sleazy superagent
1:04
Visitor: Do you assume Russel Martin will go into the HOF on veterans?
1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No
1:04
Visitor: how does arbitrage work within the present? Like, you load up on moonshot playing cards as an example after this system is over, then look forward to the moonshot 2 program to launch, then promote them?
1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s a time imbalance within the MLB the Present markets as a result of persons are naturally impatient
1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: so folks will are inclined to promote their additional playing cards or playing cards they don’t need for the most effective purchase bid the second they get them and folks shopping for will simply get the frist one out there somewhat than bidding
1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My greatest flip final 12 months, for instance, was on 7/25 when somebody offered me Awards Kris Bryant for my 62,012 purchase provide and I offered the cardboard seven  minutes later for 85,950, for a revenue of 15.3K after 10% gross sales worth tax
1:08
The Individual Who Asks the Lunch Query: What’s for lunch? (Is it a lunch day?)
1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It IS a lunch day and I had a pit beef sandwich with horseradish from charcoal deli in cockeysville
1:09
Insert Witty Title Right here: For off season studying, I’d prefer to advocate Keith O’Brien’s Pete Rose biography. Solely partway in, however completely take pleasure in it.  Generally we overlook to have a look at the complete individual as a substitute of simply their public transgressions. Though Szym’s personal transgressions we could by no means know…
1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m really fairly boring. My worst transgression is I didn’t pay somebody $15 I owed them for a decade simply out of spite
1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I additionally helped myself to retailer supplies to style numerous issues (a small trebuchet, a powered up staple gun, a gallows with a deal with that will enable us to stage hangings of a model) once I labored at a hardware-houseware retailer in Towson known as Stebbins-Anderson once I was 16-17
1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Reality is, I destroyed a variety of stuff there, stuff like melting issues within the parking zone with chemical substances, whereas working there and so they couldn’t have cared much less.
1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Whereas my pals who additionally labored there would get in bother for every part they did
1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The distinction was that the shop had this sophisticated closing course of each evening that required a capability to function the Unix terminal
1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Which meant that each evening, one of many full-time workers needed to keep till 9:30 PM to shut out the shop for the evening
1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: UNLESS, that’s, Szymborski was working, since I used to be the one part-time evening worker that would do the factor, during which case NOBODY needed to keep late.
1:13
Insert Witty Title Right here: What was the $15 for? A bag of low grade pot?
1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A baseball ticket for a sport I missed with a ruptured ulcer that required an emergency journey. I used to be actually irritated that even after telling him, he instantly despatched a *demand* for the $15 that evening which was ready earlier than I even acquired house from the pressing automotive
1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: e
1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: which pissed me off, so I used to be infantile, and deliberately didn’t pay him
1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We have been largely cordial, however he was nonetheless irritated I wouldn’t give him the $15, out of the precept
1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: finally, I finished being a dick about it and supplied to donate $500 to a charity of his option to settle the $15, however he refused and let it go
1:15
Visitor: I miss the (ir)accountability of highschool jobs. The restaurant I labored at had one rule: No consuming steaks. The rest was forgivable: no exhibiting, getting an advance in your paycheck then skipping out of city, preventing prospects….
1:16
2131 | 1312: Which disappointing staff do you assume is in a greater place to rebound subsequent 12 months: Orioles or Braves? And which ones do you really count on to do higher, given their respective likelihoods of constructing wanted enhancements
1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Orioles. I feel most of their core is unbroken and their wants are apparent
1:16
Curious reader: Do you issue 1st baseman receiving expertise in Zips? Like perhaps a shortstop is making extra performs as a result of the man who’s catching his balls doesn’t allow them to go by or come off the bag? Does statcast observe this? I really feel prefer it may
1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I really use a scoops measurement, which causes my projections to differe a little bit. You’ll see that within the Alonso information
1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (I combine DRS and OAA)
1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On that be aware, I’ve to go out for an additional week, I’ve to wrap up my playoff instrument for this 12 months!
1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming all

 

Dan Szymborski is a senior author for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a author for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a daily visitor on numerous radio exhibits and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He additionally maintains a horrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.



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