| 1:58 |
: Hey everybody, let’s get began a bit of early at this time
|
| 1:58 |
: I’m gonna sluggish my regular chatting tempo down a bit of, I’m feeling just below the climate at this time, however most likely that simply means an extended chat whereas I procrastinate determining lunch. Let’s get began
|
| 1:59 |
: Is it straightforward to run up to date odds on Cal hitting 60, 61, and many others? I’m going to the final two Dodgers video games, and contemplating including a number of Rockies video games to the combination.
|
| 1:59 |
: It positive is. I ran 62 earlier at this time and it seems to be like this:
Evaluation of the ABSOLUTE chance of the 62nd HR occurring: |
| 2:00 |
: Right here’s 63:
Evaluation of the ABSOLUTE chance of the 63rd HR occurring: Recreation Odds of Milestone Cumulative Odds 1 0.00% 0.00% 2 0.11% 0.11% 3 0.71% 0.82% 4 1.14% 1.96% 5 2.01% 3.97% 6 2.91% 6.88% |
| 2:00 |
: And, eh, 60, why not?
Evaluation of the ABSOLUTE chance of the sixtieth HR occurring: |
| 2:01 |
: In order that’s simply the identical script as earlier than, solely it’s only for the final 6 video games. ought to be fairly good
|
| 2:01 |
: glad final week of the season from one other depressing angels fan 🙂 do the angels have something to look ahead to subsequent yr? or one other yr of distress?
|
| 2:01 |
: loads of enjoyable gamers, Zach Neto might be a star…. and yeah, I don’t know, this group is constructed bizarrely and doesn’t really feel prefer it’s nearer to creating a plyaoff run, sorry
|
| 2:01 |
: I don’t know what to do with my fingers…
|
| 2:02 |
: I believe having them out, and confusingly diversified between within the air, shaking at your sides, fist pumping, and many others. is perfect
|
| 2:02 |
: Bear in mind when the Crimson Sox had so many outfielders that they didn’t even have room for Nate Eaton?
|
| 2:03 |
: I don’t also have a nice reply to that
|
| 2:03 |
: what a world we dwell in
|
| 2:05 |
: That’s a few of the enjoyable of baseball. The Crimson Sox have the strangest roster issues, ones that imply they’ve too many outfielders – and but, a 28-year-old org man is slugging his option to the playoffs for them
|
| 2:05 |
: Most disappointing group: Orioles or Atlanta?
|
| 2:05 |
: I’m really debating this query for a podcast section I’m doing quickly. I’m curious what you guys assume
|
| 2:05 |
:
Most disappointing group? Orioles (54.0% | 94 votes) Braves (44.2% | 77 votes) Different (specify in chat) (1.7% | 3 votes) Complete Votes: 174 |
| 2:05 |
: Thanks a lot for doing these weekly chats, Ben! A lot superior baseball content material comes out of those each week!
|
| 2:06 |
: I’m glad to do them, I believe they’re fairly dang enjoyable
|
| 2:06 |
: I’m out of playoffs for this yr and taking a look at my keeper choices. Which of those SPs do you have got essentially the most pleasure for subsequent yr: Mclean, Messick, or Logan Henderson?
|
| 2:06 |
: Gimme McLean, the one who has achieved it most on the massive league stage. I imply, would you be stunned if he simply stored doing it?
|
| 2:06 |
: Am I the one one who type of roots in opposition to domed roof groups in October? I would like the chilly climate power to get the complete vibe
|
| 2:06 |
: You might be undoubtedly not the one one, I really like autumn leaves and baseball
|
| 2:07 |
: sadly that argues in opposition to my residence metropolis, the place there’s principally no autumn, however look, out of doors baseball continues to be nice
|
| 2:07 |
: How might essentially the most disappointing group presumably not be the Mets? They’ve disenchanted followers nightly for 3 months. Atlanta and Baltimore no less than obtained the shedding out of the way in which early.
|
| 2:07 |
: as at all times, my most disappointing group would be the angels <3
|
| 2:08 |
: It’s laborious to select the Mets once they would possibly simply make the playoffs…. however truthful
|
| 2:08 |
: Did you find yourself going to an A’s recreation at SHP, and in that case, what did you assume?
|
| 2:08 |
: I didn’t :(. I talked a giant recreation however then on the finish of the day I by no means obtained on the market. Not happy about it, to be sincere, and subsequent yr I’m simply going to go early within the season to make up for it
|
| 2:09 |
: this was a tough yr for touring to observe baseball for me, not even any minor league video games for the primary time shortly. I simply had a ton of enjoyable journeys that have been non-baseball-related and didn’t really feel like squeezing in additional baseball journeys after I spend a lot time watching baseball as it’s
|
| 2:09 |
: Greater loss for his or her group: Woodruff or Will Smith?
|
| 2:09 |
: Will Smith for me
|
| 2:10 |
: I’m nonetheless not 100% positive I believe Woodruff is all the way in which again, whereas shedding Smith turns catcher from an enormous edge to a giant gap for the Dodgers
|
| 2:10 |
: Make your wild guesses: AL Central title, AL 2nd and third WC, NL third WC
|
| 2:11 |
: My guesses are boring, I hate to say: Tigers, Sox, Astros, Mets
|
| 2:11 |
: and I’m with our odds that it’s fairly shut on all of the spots
|
| 2:11 |
: however eh, I’m boring!
|
| 2:11 |
: Do you agree with Fangraphs that the Mariners are the favourite to win the World Collection? And fairly considerably so?
|
| 2:12 |
: I don’t actually agree with ‘considerably’ however I undoubtedly see the place our odds are coming from
|
| 2:13 |
: We’ve liekd the Mariners all yr, and because of the assorted additions they’ve made we expect they’re one of many higher groups in baseball
|
| 2:14 |
: additionally they have a bye, and the one different group we see as being a)nice b)having a bye is the Phillies
|
| 2:14 |
: however the Phillies have the Dodgers of their approach straight away in a variety of outcomes, which sucks
|
| 2:14 |
: so like…. I get what our odds are doing, the Dodgers not having a bye within the NL is knocking the highest finish of teh NL down
|
| 2:14 |
: The Crimson Sox nonetheless have too many outfielders however the purpose Nate Eaton is enjoying is as a result of he’s completely doing the job.
|
| 2:14 |
: when the rubber hits the street, you simply must play the fellows who do nicely, and Eaton matches that class
|
| 2:15 |
: The highest Sox hitters in September are hilarious, by the way in which: Eaton, Trevor Story, Rob Refsnyder, Romy Gonzalez, then an enormous hole of 30 factors of wRC+ earlier than we get to Jarren Duran
|
| 2:16 |
: backside 4 with significant PT? Rafaela, Narvaez, Bregman, Yoshida
|
| 2:16 |
: What does it say about how the dodgers view Dashing if he was instantly usurped by some man they traded for as an afterthought?
|
| 2:16 |
: it says precisely what you mentioned there
|
| 2:16 |
: Insane offseason thought: The A’s ought to commerce Leo De Vries+ to the Twins for Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez. Would immediately be the AL West favorites.
|
| 2:16 |
: I imply…. I’d not make them AL West favorites after that commerce, lol
|
| 2:17 |
: and I believe my argument – they simply completed 15 video games behind the Mariners and added two gamers – could be strong
|
| 2:17 |
: not that I wouldn’t be trying to improve pitching if I have been teh A’s, however I believe that for a group that has made it extremely clear that spending to retain gamers isn’t actually an possibility, splurging for a fast repair might be not what you need to be doing
|
| 2:18 |
: IF the Tigers don’t make it to the playoffs (from greatest report in baseball on 7/8 to lacking out), what’s the trigger? Actually have been enjoying over their heads, however, not THAT a lot, proper? Looks like the shortage of strikes for a hitter/SP on the deadline are going to trigger a variety of dialogue/offseason heartburn for Scott Harris & Co.
|
| 2:18 |
: So, ‘what’s the trigger’ is a type of unanswerable questions, however I really feel like that’s particularly the case right here
|
| 2:18 |
: they even traded for a pitcher, it jsut didn’t work
|
| 2:19 |
: I believe that it will have been cheap to take a look at the offense and say that it most likely couldn’t maintain performing this nicely
|
| 2:20 |
: but it surely was a weak yr for buying offense, so I don’t know…. Naylor and Suarez? it’s not like they’ve apparent locations to play on this group, Tork has been good, and I believe they’d have hassle benching McKinstry though he’s been solely so so within the second half
|
| 2:20 |
: typically you simply draw the quick finish of the stick
|
| 2:21 |
: Javier Baez was an AS however take a look at him after the break
|
| 2:21 |
: Proper, you can change him? after which slide McKinstry to quick? I don’t know, that doesn’t sound superb to me
|
| 2:22 |
: Suarez has cooled approach off, too, simply as you’d most likely count on
|
| 2:22 |
: I suppose the purpose is that these would have felt like marginal upgrades
|
| 2:22 |
: I believe that amybe they might have gottne extra depth, however I don’t hate what they did, and assume that they’ve simply gotten a bit unfortunate
|
| 2:22 |
: Dodgers world sequence odds at 15% regardless of not having a primary spherical bye appears very excessive to me. Am I off-base on that?
|
| 2:22 |
: It simply relies upon how favored you assume the Dodgers are in a three-game sequence, principally
|
| 2:23 |
: we expect they’re overwhelming favorites. You might slide that down if you happen to’d like, and actually, our mannequin again checks pretty nicely however I’m at all times skeptical of claiming we are able to’t do it higher
|
| 2:23 |
: i’d most likely slide them down – however they’re the plain standout favorites in the event that they win their first spherical, so
|
| 2:23 |
: Dodgers Bullpen seems to be weak however they’ll most likely transfer just a few starters in there proper?
|
| 2:23 |
: yeah 100%. Possibly even shohei?!!?
|
| 2:23 |
: A’s have 3 younger gamers who’re trying good, they should construct a pitching employees to complement that
|
| 2:23 |
: so I’d prefer to make incremental strikes quite than go for it
|
| 2:23 |
: Is it truthful to name the Mets the ‘unluckiest’ group in no less than the NL? -8 from the BaseRuns report and ~11 WAR or potential worth misplaced to harm (esp pitching). Roster isn’t removed from high WS contender terriroty
|
| 2:24 |
: positive, if you happen to’d like, however not together with hte Braves in that appears a bit bizarre to me, they’ve felt snakebitten
|
| 2:24 |
: I believe making an attempt to outline unluckiest is simply laborious
|
| 2:24 |
: Am I unsuitable for pondering the Yankees/Mariners/Phillies/Dodgers are far and away one of the best groups within the bracket and it’d be fairly surprising if the WS wasn’t a mix of two of them
|
| 2:24 |
: So, I agree with teh first half of what you mentioned
|
| 2:24 |
: however I don’t agree with the second half
|
| 2:25 |
: two of those groups are going to play three-game sequence the place the loser is out
|
| 2:25 |
: three baseball video games!
|
| 2:25 |
: Worst group you assume ought to really feel like they’ve a sensible likelihood at making the WS?
|
| 2:25 |
: I suppose the Reds b/c they’re the worst group with a playoff shot in my eyes
|
| 2:25 |
: The Reds enjoying Pittsburgh and Milwaukee seems like such an edge over the Mets enjoying the Cubs and Fish
|
| 2:25 |
: enjoying within the NLC is good, however in fact, with the extra balanced schedule there’s not an enormous distinction over all 162
|
| 2:26 |
: it’s an edge, however the Mets simply had three in opposition to the Nats
|
| 2:26 |
: Traditionally, being “scorching” or “chilly” in September doesn’t appear to have a ton of bearing on postseason success. Which “chilly” group would you decide, out of all of them, to make it to the WS?
|
| 2:26 |
: the Mets as a result of it will be funniest
|
| 2:26 |
: When you’d informed me at first of the season that Jackson Holliday would lead the Orioles in HR I’d have mentioned that the Orioles should be superior. Alas how unsuitable I’d be
|
| 2:26 |
: he didn’t prepared the ground you need him to (breakout) however the scary approach (everybody else regresses)
|
| 2:31 |
: sorry, needed to run and get a supply, let’s restart
|
| 2:31 |
: Likewise with the yanks, they don’t appear to be they’ll get the bye and are nonetheless closely favoured. Do you assume these odds are legitimate
|
| 2:31 |
: I imply, we’ve achieved a variety of backtesting. I’m unsure what you imply by legitimate, however they do a reasonably good job
|
| 2:31 |
: I believe that it’s potential we oversell expertise, however I don’t assume it’s by a ton
|
| 2:31 |
: Thanks for doing these all season! What was your favourite Useless track you heard at GD60?
|
| 2:32 |
: Oh, Truckin’, as a result of I wasn’t anticipating it
|
| 2:32 |
: and when it got here in, the place went comparatively nuts
|
| 2:32 |
: I’m starting to assume that Josh Naylor, in some unusual approach, is within the dialog for essentially the most underrated participant within the recreation at this time.
|
| 2:32 |
: yeah on the very least, participant you’d love having in your group however possibly don’t know you’d love having in your group
|
| 2:32 |
: if you happen to see Naylor plya, you’re like ooh that’s so enjoyable!
|
| 2:33 |
: For the 2nd straight yr arizona shall be probably the greatest groups to not make the playoffs. Moreover escaping the NL West, what do they should do?
|
| 2:33 |
: Have the season play out a bit of higher. I didn’t hate their resolution to promote, however like…. reverse the halves, and so they’re shopping for not sellnig
|
| 2:33 |
: after which virtually actually making the plyaoffs
|
| 2:33 |
: path dependency is a jerk
|
| 2:33 |
: “Hey FanGraphs man who simply wrote two articles confirming that FG playoff odds do a very good job. These odds appear fairly unsuitable, huh?”
|
| 2:34 |
: Haha look, I’m nonetheless gonna reply the questions. However yeah, I spend a variety of time testing our odds as a result of I too get type of skeptical of them. And I believe that our playoff odds might be higher if we used a extra granular mannequin, like Dan’s ZiPS game-by-game odds
|
| 2:35 |
: principally now we have an abstracted mannequin that considers whole group energy, whereas dan seems to be on the particular person pitchers projected per recreation
|
| 2:35 |
: ours is nice to run each 5 minutes all season lengthy, and we use his for an enhanced take a look at playoff matchups
|
| 2:35 |
: Do you assume the Tigers’s collapse is because of their questionable deadline strikes?
|
| 2:35 |
: undoubtedly not
|
| 2:35 |
: i feel that possibly their deadline strikes might have cushioned them extra
|
| 2:35 |
: however eh, I didn’t assume they’d a very poor deadline. They only ran out of fuel too quickly
|
| 2:36 |
: and in addition possibly they’ll simply win the world sequence anyway
|
| 2:36 |
: baseball’s bizarre
|
| 2:36 |
: As a a man who requested a query about playoff odds, I wish to say I actually help and recognize the fangraphs odds and in addition thanks for answering my query
|
| 2:36 |
: thanks. and yeah, look, questioning the percentages is sweet
|
| 2:36 |
: they don’t get higher by us not questioning them
|
| 2:36 |
: I’ve an article popping out tomorrow a few option to do pythagorean expectation that accounts for blowouts and place gamers pitching higher
|
| 2:36 |
: I’m at all times looking for one thing we are able to enhance
|
| 2:36 |
: The Mets. Not a query however a lament worthy of Psalms
|
| 2:37 |
: And yea, ask thyself
Whether or not ’tis higher to have Soto and never recognize it Or to dare tremendously, then fail |
| 2:37 |
: Ought to Jays followers be pushing the panic button?
|
| 2:38 |
: no, cease it, they’ve received 90 video games and so they’re even 11-8 in September
|
| 2:38 |
: As an O’s fan, ought to I be nervous due to this season?
|
| 2:38 |
: ah, now THIS
|
| 2:39 |
: what a bummer season for Baltimore. I imply, they seemed fairly good after the primary two months, my long-term expectation of their expertise stage hasn’t modified markedly
|
| 2:40 |
: However alternatively, this was a giant yr for them. They didn’t make the playoffs. Their two greatest gamers had down years. They’ve two extra years of Adley and three of Gunnar, and so they haven’t cashed in almost sufficient on that
|
| 2:40 |
: take a look at the 2016 period Cubs, most likely the philosophical equal of the O’s, hitter-heavy of their tank and rebuild part and buying pitchers as they competed
|
| 2:40 |
: they’d completed much more by this level. and when their stars neared free company and began costing extra, they fell off
|
| 2:41 |
: the factor about baseball is if you happen to win 6 in a row then lose 4 in a row you went 6 and 4 over a ten recreation span which can get you 97 wins if you happen to do all of it season. which is what the jays did earlier than their win final evening.
|
| 2:41 |
: it’s simply so irritating as a fan whenever you’re within the second
|
| 2:41 |
: I believe the Tigers’s collapse is because of their pitching depth. They haven’t hit nicely recently, but when they’d first rate pitchers we might have most likely already clinched the playoffs. I’m infuriated as a Tigers fan.
|
| 2:42 |
: yeah, if there’s something the Tigers will remorse in regards to the deadline, it’s that they didn’t react to the Reese Olson harm information by leaning tougher into buying pitching
|
| 2:42 |
: I believe that Justin Verlander was there for the taking in the event that they actually wished him, that might have been enjoyable. Morton was most likely cheaper however understanding that you just solely have just a few locked in choices, why not shoot a number of pictures?
|
| 2:43 |
: who’re your favourite prospects this yr? no matter video games, simply how they seemed within the majors(not named Nick Kurtz as a result of he seems to be like a beast after this season)
|
| 2:43 |
: so, Kurtz might be primary, however yeah, doesn’t really matter as a prospect anymore
|
| 2:43 |
: dude’s simply an excellent mlb participant
|
| 2:43 |
: so clearly, then, daylen lile
|
| 2:44 |
: so quick, Howie Kendrick stage want to swing the bat and put the ball in play
|
| 2:44 |
: Has there ever been a place participant who’s been left in to surrender 10 runs? That Royals recreation was wild.
|
| 2:44 |
: it made for a terrific hook for my article about modifying Pythag
|
| 2:44 |
: Not even Steve Cohen and Juan Soto might save the Mets from cosmic forces
|
| 2:45 |
: i imply, we’ll see
|
| 2:45 |
: That Nats group is fairly enjoyable to observe. Nasim Nunez was good Rule 5 decide
|
| 2:45 |
: I imply…. possibly!
|
| 2:45 |
: I’m a giant Nas Nunez fan, for the report. He had an superior card in OOTP as a future star one yr and I performed him extensively
|
| 2:45 |
: however like, possibly he can’t hit
|
| 2:46 |
: actually enjoyable utility participant, I believe he could be in a 5 issues this week, however his profession 82 wRC+ might be overestimating him
|
| 2:46 |
: very enjoyable to observe, although
|
| 2:46 |
: they’ve some stars and a few youth
|
| 2:46 |
: What are your ideas on the participant celebrations everytime they get on base? A few of them appear overly compelled and after 162 video games of the identical factor…I’m like…meh.
|
| 2:46 |
: I get that they should do one thing to maintain work enjoyable
|
| 2:46 |
: I do a variety of goofy stuff to maintain work enjoyable
|
| 2:47 |
: however eh, it’s not likely for us, I’d say
|
| 2:47 |
: they’re most likely for the gamers. I simply type of ignore them until they’re very humorous
|
| 2:47 |
: Do you assume that there ought to be greater than 5 classes for prospects. Ex. eye for balls and strikes, contact abilities, clutch
|
| 2:47 |
: I don’t actually assume ‘clutch’ is an excellent one simply primarily based on our persistent incapacity to foretell it greater than a tiny, infinitessimal edge
|
| 2:48 |
: however sure, Eric typically breaks out hit instrument between strategy and bat-to-ball, and that’s how I consider it too
|
| 2:48 |
: Well being/Availability ought to be thought-about a instrument
|
| 2:48 |
: I believe {that a})it’s b)it’s very laborious to measure
|
| 2:48 |
: To not get you canceled however do you agree if Jazz, um, seemed totally different, his outspoken nature could be seen as hustle grit actual baseball and many others and many others?
|
| 2:48 |
: I imply, clearly?
|
| 2:49 |
: What are writers/analysts/pundits/bloggers and many others lacking with the Brewers? As in yearly they’re predicted to do quite a bit worse than they’re. Adopted by the identical individuals who predicted that, writing about how we shouldn’t be stunned they do nicely and cease underestimating them. Adopted by predicting them to do badly once more the subsequent yr, writing the identical articles and many others.
Like this isn’t meant to be about baseball journalism actually, extra about what it’s about the way in which they construct their groups that’s laborious to worth correctly. Is it about protection? Depth? (Bench, and 40-man churn) Pitcher utilization? Platooning? All these mixed? One thing else completely? |
| 2:49 |
: I lastly ended a really worthwhile run of taking the over on the Brewers’ season win totals yearly
|
| 2:49 |
: b/c they have been constantly within the 70s whereas the Brewers stored successful hte NLC
|
| 2:49 |
: I believe that the toughest factor for projections (ours included) is that the Brewers constantly rank among the many league leaders in defensive worth and baserunning worth
|
| 2:50 |
: our projection methods regress each fairly laborious
|
| 2:51 |
: however like, prior to now 5 years, the Brewers have a 100 wRC+ and a 96 FIP-
|
| 2:51 |
: in different phrases, their hitting on the plate and ok/bb/HR pitching on the mound are fairly near common
|
| 2:51 |
: however they’re third in baserunning worth and first in defensive worth
|
| 2:51 |
: and thus, third total in wins
|
| 2:52 |
: our projections, that are closely primarily based on the ‘steady’ abilities like wRC+ and FIP, see that the Brewers are very common
|
| 2:52 |
: and we simply over-regress the otehr stuff
|
| 2:52 |
: it’s a troublesome drawback, principally
|
| 2:52 |
: Kinda nitpicking a pointless argument right here, however is there any actual purpose to view the Guardians as higher than the Reds by way of the “worst playoff group” query? Reds lead in hitter WAR, pitcher WAR, and have a greater RD by over 40 runs (and, I’d argue, particularly a greater postseason calling card of their pitching employees). Guards have the higher report, clearly, however unsure they’re *higher*
|
| 2:52 |
: in no way. I jsut picked one
|
| 2:52 |
: Do umpires name extra borderline pitches strikes in sure counts? Looks as if it occurs far more at 3-0 – particularly when the batter begins to move to first earlier than the decision – however would possibly simply be a story I’ve constructed.
|
| 2:53 |
: completely true, and it’s included in our framing fashions
|
| 2:53 |
: your odds of getting a selected pitch referred to as a strike are adjusted by depend in order that hte catcher isn’t given extreme ability for ‘framing’ a bunch of 3-0 pitches that ujmpires are simply rubber stamping
|
| 2:53 |
: There could be no funnier end result than the Cubs sweeping the Mets after getting swept by the Reds. Possibly we are able to re-ignite the Cubs-Mets rivalry of yore.
|
| 2:54 |
: individually, proper now, my Mets fan good friend mentioned he wasn’t positive whether or not this may be funnier, or sweeping the cubs after which getting wrecked by the Marlins could be funnier
|
| 2:54 |
: I’m actually unsure which might be extra amusing as a impartial fan
|
| 2:54 |
: On the “get on base” celebration points, I can actually take or depart them — however I’ll say my 10-year outdated loves them and possibly has 1/2 the groups’ memorized. So, there’s an viewers on the market (even when it’s not the participant’s intention).
|
| 2:55 |
: wow, that’s laborious to memorize all these, I’m impressed
|
| 2:55 |
: yeah, I don’t assume they detract from the sport for me in any respect, and it appears like in some methods they add to it, so nice
|
| 2:55 |
: It feels wild that the Mariners bullpen has gone on this run in September after I assumed that might be their undoing on the deadline. How legit is that or is it extra simply the traditional variance of bullpen efficiency?
|
| 2:55 |
: most likely extra the second
|
| 2:55 |
: however like…. the second is a extremely sturdy pressure
|
| 2:56 |
: Amongst all of the groups with collapses in some unspecified time in the future this season (assume particularly Braves, Orioles, Mets, Tigers) which of them are indicative of great holes that had been neglected and can probably be related in 2026 and which of them are simply rotten luck? Looks like with the Mets particularly it’s laborious to straight act on the collapse exterior of simply addressing CF (possibly Trent Grisham, however even there Jett Williams and Carson Benge each look to doubtlessly match there long run)
|
| 2:56 |
: I believe that the Mets and O’s look quite a bit like what I assumed would possibly occur to these groups – I believe the Mets collapse is extra about pitching than CF, actually
|
| 2:57 |
: prefer it’s good that the rookies have achieved alright however the guys they thought could be good being fairly unhealthy, and the bullpen having holes, have each been actually significant
|
| 2:57 |
: but it surely’s about CF too, and I htink that they’re most likely going to be making an attempt to handle each this offseason
|
| 2:57 |
: the O’s, yeah, we knew that their pitching needed to be superb to have an opportunity, and it wasn’t
|
| 2:58 |
: I believe that the Braves most likely can’t be taught a lot from their unhealthy yr other than the truth that they’ve invested a lot within the beginning lineup that if their stars don’t produce, it’s laborious to make up worth across the edges
|
| 2:58 |
: and the Tigers? Sure, I believe there’s a lesson right here. YOu actually need a LOT of above common gamers along with some stars to not have massive stretches of unhealthy play
|
| 2:58 |
: Who do you assume is the favourite from the AL? It seems like their isn’t any clear favourite and each group has some type of massive weak point. Personally, I say Crimson Sox or Mariners.
|
| 2:58 |
: Yeah, I’m with our odds in saying that I believe there are not any clearly nice groups and so simply take one of many squads with a bye
|
| 2:59 |
: I just like the M’s greater than the Jays, so I’ll take the M’s, however these are my two choices for positive
|
| 2:59 |
: So my 3 yr outdated simply began tee ball, and I believe it’s the funnest factor ever to see a bunch of children dogpile over a weakly hit floor ball. My query is, when can I begin telling different mother and father that it’s approach too early for his or her baseball prodigies to grasp launch angle?
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| 2:59 |
: I believe it is best to simply do it now
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| 2:59 |
: carry a trackman to that scrimmage
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| 2:59 |
: put a pressure plate down subsequent to the orange slices and see which children stomp over there most aggressively
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| 3:00 |
: In a bizarro universe, would a hitter with 150 walks (and none intentional) have the identical WAR as the identical hitter with all 150 walks being intentional?
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| 3:00 |
: we talked about this just a few chats in the past however we strip intentional walks out of wRC+ (and WAR) adn change them with a PA on the participant’s IBB-excluded seasonal line
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| 3:00 |
: The Dodger bullpen has actually been horrible, however am I proper to assume issues about it within the postseason (esp a better of 5) are overblown due to how they will deploy guys like Sheehan and Ohtani as relievers (and the obvious capacity of Yama/Glasnow/Snell to go 6-7)?
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| 3:00 |
: yeah, I concur
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| 3:01 |
: and that’s why I like our projection of the Dodgers because the goliaths of the NL regardless of a scarcity of byes
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| 3:01 |
: Are HBP valued the identical as a BB in wrc+?
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| 3:01 |
: they’re really valued barely greater
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| 3:01 |
: why? as a result of we worth every occasion primarily based on the common enchancment in run scoring possibilities over all of the conditions the place that occasion takes place, weighted by the relative frequency of its incidence in every place
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| 3:02 |
: walks disproportionately happen with first base open, so that they’re much less useful than you’d count on a ‘random’ 1 base development to be
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| 3:02 |
: HBP’s are just about random
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| 3:02 |
: therefore, higher than a stroll on common
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| 3:02 |
: I believe that is your third chat this season the place the BB vs IBB WAR problem has come up
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| 3:02 |
: it’s very complicated!
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| 3:02 |
: however yeah, hey, good factor now we have chats to reply it
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| 3:02 |
: Comply with-up: Does some kind of consolidation commerce to get a Joe Ryan sort (assume Senga + Megill + again high 30) and buffer extra consistency work? I’m actually extra assured with the bullpen given simply how good it was early within the season earlier than so many guys went down, and Stearns has a monitor report of forming sturdy bullpens from spare elements, however actually previous the three rookies and Manaea (who I belief as a result of when not injured he’s been excellent) who is definitely trustable
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| 3:02 |
: yeah, I believe I’m typically in favor of this plan, or signing somebody
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| 3:03 |
: Will he ever cease being Good Astro Man and signal an ace?
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| 3:03 |
: that is the winter
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| 3:03 |
: What’s one of the simplest ways to guesstimate accidents for gamers? Is there a great way?
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| 3:03 |
: I haven’t discovered a great way but
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| 3:03 |
: Has MLB formally introduced that ball/strike problem system is coming subsequent yr? what are the official guidelines?
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| 3:03 |
: I’ve not seen an announcement wherever, so I don’t assume so
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| 3:03 |
: but it surely’ll most likely match the ST/minor league guidelines
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| 3:04 |
: within the all star recreation, every group obtained to problem till they’d been unsuitable twice, solely the pitcher batter and catcher can problem
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| 3:04 |
: I believe some model of that’s probably
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| 3:05 |
: As a Phillies fan, clearly I’m glad they haven’t collapsed. And I’m conscious that a variety of issues have gone proper for them this yr, particularly total well being. However but I nonetheless discover myself specializing in, and worrying about, the few issues have gone unsuitable (Wheeler harm, Nola immediately unhealthy, Alvarado suspended for the playoffs). Does unadulterated fan pleasure solely come from sudden overachievement, just like the Tigers shock run to the playoffs final yr? Or do followers of juggernauts additionally expertise unadulterated pleasure, as a result of they not solely count on to crush all of their path this yr but in addition count on to do it once more yearly, indefinitely?
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| 3:05 |
: That is most likely a hedonic treadmill problem
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| 3:05 |
: My spouse’s a Packers fan, probably the most profitable franchises in NFL historical past. I do know a ton of Yankees and Dodgers followers. They’re all unhappy loads of the time
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| 3:05 |
: that’s simply the way it works
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| 3:06 |
: I believe that nobody will get unadulterated pleasure, however that the actually laborious half about sports activities is looking for a variety of pleasure in it anyway
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| 3:06 |
: the excellent news is, to cite jay-z quoting most likely everybody else in historical past, pleasure wouldn’t really feel so good if it wasn’t for ache
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| 3:06 |
: or alternately, ‘a rainbow, then the clouds come out, we do it once more’
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| 3:06 |
: Thanks for the reply concerning what projections miss in regards to the Brewers. However the writers/pundits would know what the weaknesses of the projections are, and may be capable to modify for that (i.e not regress protection/baserunning as a lot, for instance), but they don’t. So I really feel there’s extra to it than simply the side of projections. As a result of, if something, my impression is that the projections are typically greater on the Brewers than the predictions are.
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| 3:06 |
: yeah, now that I can’t clarify
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| 3:07 |
: I’m with you generally
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| 3:07 |
: I believe possibly the centrals are each under-represented in forecasts
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| 3:07 |
: and that folks misunderstand decrease projections vs. the truth that variance continues to be excessive
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| 3:07 |
: Early. Tolle and Harrison vs. McLean, Tong and Sproat. Who ya’ obtained?
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| 3:08 |
: so, I’ve it like: McLean, Tolle, Tong, Sproat, Harrison
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| 3:08 |
: I’m simply down on Harrison, I don’t know, I watched him a ton right here and possibly the Crimson Sox will repair him however they’re gonna must persuade me
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| 3:08 |
: 50 Cent on that “pleasure wouldn’t be . . .” quote (from “Many Males”)
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| 3:08 |
: there you go. it’s additionally jay-z from ‘weapons n roses’ and I’m unsure which was earlier
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| 3:09 |
: Do you assume PCA within the first or second half is who he actually is? I believe he is an efficient hitter, however not so good as he was within the first half. If he will get again to his first half type, he’s one of the best 5-tool participant and the third greatest participant in baseball.
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| 3:09 |
: in order I discussed after I was doing commerce worth, I knocked PCA’s forecasts down greater than some other participant
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| 3:09 |
: so I suppose I’m extra like second half. I don’t htink he’s this unhealthy, both, however the first half manufacturing was clearly not sustainable
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| 3:10 |
: Writers predictions – Writers, like many coaches, worth expertise. The issue is that they see expertise as “hit ball laborious” and “throw ball quick”. Now, these actually are abilities, however they aren’t every little thing.
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| 3:10 |
: yeah, that is plausible too
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| 3:10 |
: anyway, I don’t know, projections and predictions are likely to fade the centrals generally and the Brewers and Guardians specifically
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| 3:11 |
: How will analysts change the worth of pitch framing as soon as the ball/strike challenges are available in? I assume there’ll nonetheless be some worth, however to the purpose of usefulness?
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| 3:11 |
: With an ABS problem system, do you count on some hitters will get inexperienced and pink lights to problem primarily based on their capacity to inform balls vs. strikes? Individually, does FG have any plans for measuring problem “ability” just like framing?
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| 3:11 |
: alright, let’s reply these balls and strikes questions earlier than calling it a day
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| 3:11 |
: so, we’ll nonetheless measure framing the identical, I believe. And simply exclude any pitches the place there was a overview? as a result of on these pitches, there’s no ability at framing to be measured
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| 3:12 |
: they’re only a strike or not regardless
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| 3:12 |
: and I imply, completely we’ll measure who’s greatest and worst at it
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| 3:12 |
: I actually need to know
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| 3:12 |
: and now, a lightning spherical earlier than leaving
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| 3:12 |
: The FG chats are a very good mental-health break for me each week. I at all times look ahead to them, and recognize all of you who do that. Thanks for being right here; thanks for being you.
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| 3:12 |
: why thanks very a lot; I hope that everybody enjoys these and will get no less than a bit of out of it
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| 3:12 |
: Any ballpark predictions for the contract outcomes of fellows like Alonso, Naylor, Flores, Santana, Goldschmidt, O’Hearn, Arraez? Alonso reunion with NYM nonetheless seems to be probably however the precise contract worth feels up within the air and there’s simply a lot variance right here with a variety of buy-lows (and Santana would possibly simply retire)
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| 3:13 |
: I’m engaged on my projections, however not that a lot as a result of we don’t publish them till proper after the world sequence
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| 3:13 |
: I believe that it most likely goes Alonso/Naylor/Arraez/O’Hearn by way of how a lot groups are serious about every, however I haven’t actually finalzied my ideas there but in any respect
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| 3:13 |
: The place the hell do you get black vinegar? Wished to strive your peanut sauce recipe out, but when Entire Meals didn’t have it (or I missed it?)
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| 3:13 |
: oh man, it’s a ache!
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| 3:13 |
: i am going to 99 Ranch or one other asian market, or I order it on-line on Weee
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| 3:14 |
: it’s SUCH a very good taste, very irritating how laborious it’s to search out
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| 3:14 |
: it’s alternately referred to as chinkiang vinegar in some locations, if that helps
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| 3:14 |
: What number of challenges do you assume every group could have?
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| 3:14 |
: I’d additionally prefer to to thanks with these chats. I really like speaking ball, however don’t have many individuals to speak with. That is very enjoyable.
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| 3:14 |
: Like it ,and I’m glad we will help
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| 3:14 |
: everybody who works at FanGraphs does it as a result of they love baseball and wish different individuals to like baseball
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| 3:14 |
: so listening to that folks like our stuff is absolutely gratifying
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| 3:15 |
: alright, have a beautiful week everybody, and after we speak subsequent Monday, it’ll be a playoff preview
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| 3:15 |
: I schedule my Monday’s round your chat!!!!
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| 3:16 |
: and I tremendously recognize it
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| 3:16 |
: what a reader base, we’re spoiled by all of you
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Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He may be discovered on Bluesky @benclemens.