Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 9/15/25

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody

Ben Clemens: Received a barely late begin whereas I scramble round right here however let’s get going

Nats Fan: Cj Abrams is best defensively this yr than he was final yr.  However he’s nonetheless pretty beneath common.  Do you suppose the Nats must be affected person or transfer him to second, or elsewhere?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I’d transfer him

Ben Clemens: love the offense, don’t suppose the protection is gonna pan out at this level provided that it hasn’t but

The Individual Who Asks The Lunch Query: What’s for lunch?

Ben Clemens: I do not know, to be sincere with you. Simply obtained again from a visit and so I don’t suppose tehre’s a lot within the fridge. Most likely takeout?

Dansby Swansong: I do know batting common isn’t a lot of a factor anymore, however ought to a .242 hitter win the MVP?  Ohtani gained it with a .257 BA, however he additionally pitched.

Ben Clemens: I imply…. They need to in the event that they handle to be an enormous contributor on offense regardless of that handicap

Ben Clemens: but it surely’s fairly laborious to be an extremely useful participant whereas accruing that few hits

Ben Clemens: you’d must, I don’t know, stroll quite a bit, hit so many dwelling runs that hour slugging proportion is ludicrous anyway, possibly play catcher for some defensive worth?

Phil: True or False: Roki Sasaki doesn’t pitch for the Dodgers once more till 2026.

Phil: True or False: Clayton Kershaw won’t begin a playoff recreation for the Dodgers in 2025.

Ben Clemens: I’ve to be sincere with you, I’m not on high of the Roki information. I’m anticipating him to pitch, however I’m skeptical it’ll be as a full-outing starter

Ben Clemens: and yeah, provided that, I assume I’ve ‘sure’ on Kershaw beginning a playoff recreation

Ben Clemens: possibly they’ll piggyback Kershaw and Ohtani!

Ben Clemens: although I suppose in that case Ohtani would probalby begin, b/c how would he heat up throughout the recreation?

21127: Moises Ballesteros is hitting 321/406/536 in The Present. We all know that we can not draw conclusions from that slash line primarily based on 31 plate appearances. However what about primarily based on a 21-year-old who has 4 BBs, 1 Ok, and a .214 ISO in his first 31 plate appearances? That feels to me each rarer and extra spectacular.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, you continue to can’t be taught something sadly

Ben Clemens: however, I like Moises Ballesteros

Ben Clemens: I’d say that I haven’t modified my opinion on him since he debuted — however my opinion was ‘this dude rocks a lot that I went out of my technique to write about him, and that’s earlier than two straight seasons of hitting in Triple-A

WAR: Does Choose learn FanGraphs? The well-known Jaffe article final yr, then he writes one in early September, plus the WAR article… only a informal 232 wRC+ in September towards 4 good groups. This man!

Ben Clemens: haha I hope he does

Ben Clemens: I hope everybody does!

Ben Clemens: I do suppose a good variety of gamers learn FG although

RH: Why can’t the Reds do it? It was there for the taking this week!

Ben Clemens: baseball is tough

Ben Clemens: the opposite guys stay in large homes too

Eldridge Horror: How do you are feeling in regards to the Giants calling up Bryce Eldridge? I imply he’s positively gonna strike out quite a bit however his EVs are insane lol (64% hard-hit fee??!!?)

Ben Clemens: I feel they must with Dom Smith out

Ben Clemens: like, they don’t have a whole lot of lefty bats on the bench

Ben Clemens: they usually need to platoon 1b/dh

Ben Clemens: I’d positively attempt it

David Wiers: I don’t know what to make of Trent Grisham. 30 HR, however single-digit doubles, however he’s principally flipped his 2023 season there. Solely 12 dwelling HR, so it isn’t only a brief porch factor. Some principally nice Statcast numbers, however do you suppose he’ll even out and is extra probably a 20-doubles, 20-HR man going ahead?

Ben Clemens: After I mannequin future energy output by myself, I prefer to closely regress 2b/hr ratio in direction of the imply

Ben Clemens: not like, all the best way

Ben Clemens: however htese bizarre seasons the place the whole lot appears to exit typically don’t appear to final (and vice versa)

White fang: What you bought cooking up

Ben Clemens: doing a little playoff odds investigation for tomorrow

Ben Clemens: after that, who is aware of

Nancy’s Pal Sluggo: I’m the one Zen NYM fan. I feel they barely make the playoffs after which have a good shot of upsetting the LAD within the first spherical.

Ben Clemens: it’s best to speak to my Mets fan buddies

Ben Clemens: I agree with you throughout the board on this, tbh

Blustery Day: Can wind have a noticeable impact on pitching management? Was watching the Dodgers/Giants Ray vs. Glasnow recreation and the wind was actually whipping round prefer it tends to do in San Fran. They had been each struggling fairly mightily with command, and I’m positive it’s simply that these guys do generally. Nevertheless it had me questioning…

Ben Clemens: I feel it’s potential. Or at the very least that a whole lot of issues related to wind can

Ben Clemens: more durable to make certain of your footing, altering winds can mess with ball flight, distracting thigns blowing round within the background, different issues I haven’t considered

Bosoxforlife: I like then Cal Raleigh story however only one take a look at what Aaron Choose has completed prior to now week, when it will get all the way down to the nitty-gritty, ought to reply the query. Choose is the MVP!

Ben Clemens: I’ve by no means actually wavered in that view, although I definitely get the intuition to provide it to somebody new

Ben Clemens: Cal is admittedly enjoyable and Choose is clearly nice, he doesn’t want extra awards to verify it

Ben Clemens: however, uh, he’s probably the most useful participant?

Bosoxforlife: I couldn’t assist however chuckle on the thought that Dom Smith is an indispensable participant.

Ben Clemens: It’s wild!

Ben Clemens: he’s been sneaky good this yr although

Ben Clemens: 111 wRC+, his finest since 2020. big improve over LaMonte Wade Jr’s yr (58 wRC+), and Wilmer Flores vs. a righty shouldn’t be actually the place you need to be

Ben Clemens: it’s one in every of these ‘effectively for this staff specifically, substitute degree shouldn’t be 0 WAR however -2 WAR’

2131, 1312: Jackson Holliday is again on observe, no? Attempting to get used to the streakiness for who is aware of how lengthy

Ben Clemens: I imply…. prob… ably?

Ben Clemens: however it’s not like he had an unimaginable season, and it’s not like he improved massively because the yr went on

Ben Clemens: 1st half wRC+: 102
2nd half wRC+: 102

Ben Clemens: possibly that is simply who he’s offensively? or like, at the very least on this common zip code

Ben Clemens: i’ll say, the walks are a GREAT signal

Ben Clemens: like I feel the bust danger might be not there anymore

Ben Clemens: however the star potential? I’m unconvinced

Visitor: which one ought to i watch as we speak , ashcraft or Yesavage

Thomas: Trey Yesavage and Bryce Eldridge each debuting as we speak! Groups calling up high prospects to assist for the stretch run is a lot enjoyable. Feels just like the half in a fantasy novel the place the younger hero has to come back in and save the day

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna attempt to watch Yesavage and Eldridge as we speak

Ben Clemens: I imply, Ashcraft could be very thrilling, however I’ve seen him pitch within the bigs earlier than

207: With two extra homers not solely does Choose be a part of the 50×4 membership that’s solely PED/Ruth, but additionally passes Griffey for many ever in 4 years that isn’t PED/Ruth. The PED period and juiced ball i believe made homers much less spectacular however even with all that, 50×4 by no means immediately occurred outdoors of those guys.

Ben Clemens: Choose is the form of taking pictures star that we shoudl be completely satisfied we get to see

Ben Clemens: in 50 years persons are going to speak about Choose the best way I speak about Mantle

JHench: In each of the races the place groups flipped spots this previous week (Houston/Seattle, Boston/New York), the one change to the playoff bracket was dwelling area.  Is that high-enough stakes?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna say sure, primarily based on watching these video games

Ben Clemens: looks as if it had the gang and gamers fairly juiced

Austin: Is Dillon Dingler the following JT Realmuto? He’s obtained an actual declare to be the 2nd finest catcher within the league this yr. Or at the very least within the group trailing Raleigh. His mixture of elite protection and line-drive contact remind me a whole lot of prime JT. He’s a reasonably good athlete too!

Ben Clemens: he’s tremendously underrated, I’ll offer you that

Ben Clemens: subsequent JT Realmuto is a excessive bar

Insert Witty Identify Right here: In want of a brand new sauce for my rice bowls. I make a imply peanut, sesame, and common tso sauce, however want some recent concepts.  No higher place than a baseball chat! Whatcha obtained for me?

Ben Clemens: you already know I clicked this one to reply with my peanut sauce recipe however you will have that one

Ben Clemens: okay, right here’s one for you: make your personal chili oil for it. That allows you to principally drizzle it on and kick issues up quite a bit

Ben Clemens: I obtained a recipe from a guide referred to as Pink Sizzling Kitchen, however I feel there are a ton of choices. you principally warmth oil, drop in floor up peppers plus the opposite flavors you need (I have a tendency to make use of bay leaves and sichuan peppers), after which let it cool and infuse

Ben Clemens: failing that, right here’s one out of left area: walnut pesto

Ben Clemens: unsure that’s the most effective recipe however first I pulled up. It’d be extra like a mediterranean rice bowl then

Visitor: Would possibly we see LDV debut in 2026? Even a month in the past I might’ve mentioned that was loopy, but it surely’s laborious to argue with what he’s doing in AA

Ben Clemens: We’d, however I might guess towards it

Ben Clemens: that’s actually quick for anybody, even a star participant

David: Random MILB advocate. Received to attend the ultimate recreation of the Northwest League Championship; Everett vs Eugene. Was an absolute blast of a recreation. Gamers had been tremendous into it, a stroll was bat flipped, a pop up brought about a participant to spike his bat. Everett Gamers rushed the sector to have fun after. Minor league ball is the most effective.

Ben Clemens: I couldn’t agree extra

Invoice: What do you consider Tolle and Early and the opposite Sox minor league pitchers within the system?

Ben Clemens: I favored Dan’s article on Early quite a bit, and I haven’t actually developed my very own distinct opinion

Ben Clemens: Tolle, I like. I’m unsure he’s prepared for prime time but, however I watch him pitch and go ‘yeah this can work’

Brian: Did Skubal’s odds of cy younger go up or down by being damage (I do know no large points). It looks as if as much as me and that may be a dangerous factor each for the sport and for potential betting shenanigans?

Ben Clemens: I feel they primarily didn’t change

Ben Clemens: he’s fairly clearly the most effective pitcher within the AL this yr now that Crochet isn’t threatening him for the ERA title. Hunter Brown nonetheless ils, however c’mon, you’re gonna give hunter Brown the Cy over Tarik Skubal? nah

Brian: Ya thats my level. Sitting out video games the system towards increased possibilities of successful by way of no blowups…Should you had cash on him you’ll need him to get damage and whatnot.. that appears suboptimal, no???

Ben Clemens: Oh, I imply, I don’t suppose the chances have modified

Ben Clemens: you possibly can think about a world the place it may matter, however I really feel prefer it solely works should you’re method out in entrance…. and, uh, Skubal was like a 1:20 favourite already

Ben Clemens: should you’re proper within the center, it gained’t work, since you’re simply giving your rivals an opportunity to cross you

Lock him up: After settling for Cedric Mullins over Laureano and Bader, lacking out on Merrill Kelly, and including Helsley(unexpected backfire), can David Stearns do one thing clearly good?  For instance, can Nolan McLean quickly get a staff pleasant contract extension overlaying his arbitration years?

Ben Clemens: Would you accept extending Pete Alonso (or re-signing him after he opts out, no matter, not involved with technicalities)

Victoria: Is NL ROY the one compelling award race left?

Ben Clemens: It’s the one one which’s compelling to me, at the very least

Ben Clemens: I really feel like if I had a vote, I might already be fairly near locking in my different votes

Ben Clemens: however I dunno. Horton and Baldwin, each nice. Isaac Collins, underrated

Brian: What number of AL rookies would win the NL award unanimously this yr?

Ben Clemens: unanimously? most likely 2

Ben Clemens: Anthony and Kurtz

Ben Clemens: ehh…. possibly 1

Ben Clemens: Anthony’s gonna finish the yr at 300 PA or so, Cade Horton could be the Cubs’ #1 starter when the playoffs begin

Ben Clemens: like, would Anthony win? possibly

Ben Clemens: would ilt be unanimous? I anticipate not

Ben Clemens: ehhhh…. possibly? I imply he positively wouldn’t win unanimously

Ben Clemens: however yeah, that’s a fiar addition

Ben Clemens: I’m down on him, however the numbers are fairly good and voters love common

Lock him up: I wouldn’t be upset if Stearns decides to maneuver on from Alonso if he has a very good contingency plan, however do you suppose McLean will get an extension?

Ben Clemens: okay, that is WILD to me

Ben Clemens: Pete Alonso is likely one of the finest Mets of the twenty first century

Ben Clemens: Cohen’s cash isn’t yours

Ben Clemens: you don’t need to root for Pete?

Ben Clemens: and like, McLean most likely isn’t signing an extension this offseason

Ben Clemens: I’m positive they’ll attempt however there are few comps for a pitcher signing one this early once they’ve been nearly as good as him

Ben Clemens: like, the Strider deal possibly?

Ben Clemens: however tehre’s not a whole lot of it, and Strider was form of a bizarre case

2131, 1312: Cedric Mullins will get a assured provide this offseason? I do know the CF market is shallow this yr, however man, he has not been at his finest

Ben Clemens: I imply, I feel he’ll. platoon CF kinda deal. if he’s intent on being a full-time starter that could be trickier, however I’m not anticipating that

doughboy: Apart from Skubal, the Tigers appear to be a sum of their components staff. Whereas this has by no means appeared like a sustainable profitable staff development, they’ve the second finest document within the AL. They’ve performed slightly below .500 baseball since July 1st. What can we make of all this as they head into the playoffs? And even the Central isn’t the slam dunk it was trying to be.

Ben Clemens: I’m sorry, however they’re 6.5 up on Cleveland with 12 to play. In the event that they don’t win the Central, this will likely be one of many worst collapses of all time

Ben Clemens: as to what ato make of them? I feel I are likely to agree with our odds, which principally by no means purchased that they had been the most effective staff in teh AL, but additionally don’t purchase that they’re beneath .500 true expertise

Ben Clemens: you may’t know who will get scorching, who can have the worst week of their life on the mistaken time, who will click on with a brand new method

Ben Clemens: however a very good guess is that they’ll make the DS with a bye, after which be an underdog towards whoever they face

The M’s solely win after I’m overseas: I’m not satisfied that Choose is the plain MVP selection. The fWAR differential is near inside WAR’s error bars (bWAR could be too if framing had been factored in).

Ben Clemens: I imply…. positive

Ben Clemens: however, you’re not a voter, at the very least I assume not

Ben Clemens: and Aaron Choose is simply 6 homers behind regardless of 40 fewer PA, and he’s hitting WAY higher than Raleigh

Ben Clemens: now, if Raleigh goes nuts and hits 62, positive

Ben Clemens: but when the season ended as we speak? Choose wouldn’t be unanimous however the odds aren’t 1:10 in his favor at betting websites on accident

Nick: Reds, Giants, Mets; Mariners, Angels, Rangers: Who makes the post-season?

Ben Clemens: Mets, M’s, Astros

Ben Clemens: who I assume you meant as a substitute of Angels

Pinstriped Energy: I like decide, but when Raleigh will get 60 how does he not get it

Ben Clemens: yeah, possibly I ought to have mentioned 60 as a substitute of 62. I’ve slightly ‘chase for 62’ script prepared for if he heats up

Ben Clemens: so my head went to 62

Nancy’s Pal Sluggo: Do you suppose some MVP voters will go for Raleigh over Choose as a result of catcher is only a a lot harder place? Is that legitimate reasoning?

Ben Clemens: Do I feel some will? Positive. Is it legitimate? I imply…. WAR does give him extra credit score for it, however I don’t suppose you’ll want to simply vote by way of WAR

Ben Clemens: I don’t suppose that I might do this

Ben Clemens: however I wouldn’t say ‘effectively that’s irrational’

SPArn: A take: The ghost runner rule has ruined the stroll off dwelling run. Pat Bailey’s grand slam felt anti climactic

Ben Clemens: I don’t suppose I agree with this take, but it surely does sound fascinating to examine data-wise

Ben Clemens: like, is the common walkoff hit in decrease leverage now?

Ben Clemens: personally, I used to be watching that recreation with my mother, stepdad, and spouse, and all of us went nuts when he hit the homer and flipped the bat

Appa Yip Yip: Subsequent JT realmuto this, second coming of Johnny bench that. When will the folks be clamoring for the following Alejandro Kirk?

Ben Clemens: why do you suppose I like Moises Ballesteros a lot!

Ben Clemens: I’m so within the tank for Kirk

Ben Clemens: my solely solace is that I’ve been proper

Sean: Good run by the M’s… particularly the offense.  Which of the three AL West groups wins the West?

Ben Clemens: I’ll persist with the M’s

Ben Clemens: I’m simply being constant, I’ve been choosing them quite a bit when folks requested me this

Ben Clemens: and eh, it’s a crapshoot, however I feel the M’s have the most effective likelihood

SPArn: Do you will have a Daylen Lile take simply but? The skilled hitter spirit of Howie Kendrick lives on in Washington!

Ben Clemens: I need to see extra, however I’m form of in, the statcast stuff is best than I might have anticipated

Ben Clemens: you already know, you see the batting line that appears prefer it’s depending on avoiding Ok’s and BABIP and go eh, I dunno, most gamers aren’t able to doing that within the majors

Ben Clemens: however no, that’s probably not his recreation, his stats simply occur to seem like that

Ben Clemens: Lotta doubles, not solely depending on preserving SwStr% down

Ben Clemens: Kendrick is a enjoyable comp, largely as a result of I like Howie Kendrick

The Windy Citi: Considerably misc. however I noticed the wind query from earlier and was reminded of a latest Adam Ottavino (sure the pitcher) video the place he analyzed precisely how the wind in Citi Discipline has affected pitch motion throughout some particular video games.

Ben Clemens: that is actually cool

Ben Clemens: (I’ve truly seen this earlier than, I didn’t simply watch it proper now)

60: I imply if Choose goes full Choose he may have like 57.

Ben Clemens: additionally true. like, conditional on Cal going nuts and Choose not, yeah, gimme Cal

Ben Clemens: however that doesn’t appear THAT probably, even when iid

2131, 1312: Watch out there ben, don’t need to get automodded lol

Ben Clemens: I’m in r/baseball they usually must name him ‘Alejandro LastName’

johnny dANGER: how come we don’t see as many Cuban defectors anymore?

Ben Clemens: I’d must do a deeper dive to provide you a brilliant assured reply however principally, I feel the expertise has simply left?

Ben Clemens: the cuban staff hasn’t been nearly as good in worldwide competitors, lots of the taking pictures stars defected younger and due to this fact didn’t ascend to stardom in Serie

Jason: What’s Cade Horton’s outlook subsequent yr? His stats this yr are preposterous. I’m pondering sub 4 ERA once more subsequent yr with possibly 8 Ok/9? hopefully can attain 170/180 innings

Ben Clemens: yeah I’m pondering extra strikeouts, increased BABIP, extra homers, but it surely provides as much as a reasonably good total package deal

He Received Recreation (1998): How sticky is fielding proportion? Clearly there are MUCH higher methods to find out if somebody is an efficient fielder, however is a season of innings sufficient to find out that somebody is best on the simple performs? Asking as a result of Trea Turner has picked up 9-10 outs this yr from avoiding errors and I’m making an attempt to persuade myself his big defensive bounce isn’t simply pattern dimension flukiness

Ben Clemens: It’s sufficient for me to revise my estimation up considerably. it’s additionally sufficient for me to notice it to possibly examine throughout the offseason. stickiness of 80%-100% out chance performs, possibly?

Opifijikl: What’s your favourite pitch ever? Why? ie Pedro changeup or Kershaw Curveball and many others

Ben Clemens: oh, nice query

Ben Clemens: okay Tommy Kahnle changeup is increased than it has any proper to be

Ben Clemens: however: I like Framber’s curve a ton, however most likely my favourite is Michael Wacha’s foolish, looped-in curveball

Ben Clemens: as a result of he nonetheless does it generally, and it’s one of many first issues that clued me in to how pitchers had been in a position to make use of totally different pitches with totally different fascinating goals

Ben Clemens: his changeup is best, obv, however that foolish, terrible, cruveball

Insert Witty Identify Right here: Nonetheless need your peanut sauce recipe, be fascinating to see if there’s any distinction

Ben Clemens: oh positive. it’s kinda approximate, however I combine collectively creamy peanut butter, black vinegar, a splash of unseasoned rice vinegar, oil and spice (both simply chili oil or deal with each individually), a touch of brown sugar, and a touch of garlic

Ben Clemens: oh plus water to get the consistency proper relying on what you need

Farhandrew Zaidman: I do know Kershaw’s curveball will get all of the flowers (and deservedly so, it’s filthy) however the slider is the pitch that made his profession.

Ben Clemens: that mentioned, the curve is simply prettier

johnny dANGER: if each participant was a free agent on the finish of the season, who’s signing the largest contract?

Ben Clemens: I nonetheless suppose Ohtani if he wished it

Ben Clemens: or fairly, I feel Ohtani if he wished it

It’s Apparent However: The distinction between Choose and Dumper’s WRC+ is identical as between Dumper and Spencer Torkelson.

Ben Clemens: yeah.however i imply, catcher is tough!

Ben Clemens: and he’s enjoying a very good catcher whereas doing it, which isn’t nothing

Tacoby Bellsbury: A reminder on fielding proportion for infielders: athlete at first base (say, a Bryce Harper sort as a substitute of your metaphorical Rhys Hoskins) can save fairly just a few throwing errors from an infielder with out it ever formally exhibiting up within the field rating.

Ben Clemens: true. though that tends to be sticky anyway as a result of it’s extra probably than not that your opening day 1b one yr remains to be there the following yr

2131, 1312: Bizarrely, Alex Jackson is definitely within the midst of a legitimately respectable partial season as a hitter. He at present has 13 XBH and seven singles in 90 PAs. Positive it means nothing, simply enjoyable and unusual

Ben Clemens: wow, that’s kinda superb

Victoria: How cool was Ballesteros hitting his first homer proper to Rizzo?

Ben Clemens: extraordinarily cool

2131, 1312: Do the rangers have one other playoff run/look in them earlier than they tear it down and rebuild? (or at the very least retool)

Ben Clemens: mmmmmmmm….. I feel they’ve yet another

Ben Clemens: I hope they’ve yet another, I would like dG within the playoffs yet another time

Ben Clemens: I didn’t have deGrom’s fastball or slider in my listing of favourite pitches, however he’s my favourite pitcher to look at

Ben Clemens: the device that makes him so enjoyable to look at is the command, although

Farhandrew Zaidman: I do know it’s slightly early for playoff roster choices, however most groups within the WC/DS DON’T carry the complete 13 pitchers, proper?

Ben Clemens: WC, positively. DS, I feel it’s shut

Ben Clemens: I feel many groups can have 13 pitchers in teh DS and none will within the wild card spherical

Ben Clemens: okay, I’ve to go determine lunch and maintain churning away on the playoff odds article so I can have it nailed down for modifying as we speak

Ben Clemens: have a beautiful week eveyrone, and let’s speak once more this time subsequent week