Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/11/25

Dan Szymborski: mesdames et messieurs, bienvenue, nobles FanGraphiers et vénérables sabermétriciens!

Alex: Drake Baldwin has had a beautiful rookie season. What would you anticipate from the remainder of his profession? Brian McCann had a profession 12 months at 22 and by no means exceeded the numbers he posted that season; Large Dumper hit a stratospheric different degree. The place do you see Baldwin going from right here?

Dan Szymborski: As I all the time inform everybody: catchers are bizarre

Dan Szymborski: Typically they peak weirdly, typically they cease growing, typically they simply blow up late by some means

Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure we all know which bizarre approach Baldwin will age, so simply assume one thing pretty regular and ready for Mets degree tracknessy (tradgety + wackiness)

Idiotic Failson: Grisham and Bellinger are each going to be free brokers. Do you suppose the Yankees resign one, each, or neither?

Dan Szymborski: I believe they might maintain Grisham and lose Bellinger

Visitor: Which 2026 MLB free agent reliever would you give a contract price mrke

Dan Szymborski: mrke?

Dan Szymborski: Possibly it’s nonetheless too early (my mind doesn’t actually perform earlier than 2 PM), but when somebody can inform me what that’s, I’ll reply

Visitor: I do know that ZiPS projections begin to be saved for the offseason round now, however what would Caleb Ferguson being stretched out as a starter appear to be? Clearly he’s primarily been a single-inning man, however he seems to be like an honest candidate for a kick change and has explicitly expressed an curiosity in beginning earlier than.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS issues pretty third-fourth startery, nevertheless it’s not predicting issues like data of a brand new pitch

Visitor: You suppose 2/10 would get it finished for Devin Williams within the offseason?

Dan Szymborski: No, I believe he’s ok that he both will get an even bigger contract, or a very nice one 12 months deal

Idiotic Failson: Wenceel Perez got here into the 12 months with extraordinarily ‘meh’ forecasts. Given his >300 AB pattern measurement of 120wRC+ on the dish, do you (or Zips) see him an a comfortably above common hitter now? Or is his present run on the plate a fluke?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say comfortably above common, however I believe he’s displaying he’s respectable, particularly not BABIP pushed

Eli: Does ZiPS see any hope for Volpe or Wells? Or are they doomed to affix the island of misplaced yankee prospects with Hen, Frazier, Sanchez, Andujar, and many others.?

Dan Szymborski: I nonetheless have hope and ZiPS does too

Dan Szymborski: Whereas I don’t wish to parrot Yankees reddit an excessive amount of, given their insane blame of analytics for all the pieces that doesn’t work and attributing at all the pieces that does work to ignoring analytics, Volpe *has* gotten too far into huge energy hitter strategy; he’s not Kyle Schwarber and line drives are good

Dan Szymborski: And I don’t WTF is occurring together with his protection this 12 months

Chi Sox Chip: What can we make of Colson Montgomery?

Dan Szymborski: The facility’s been spectacular and you’ll’t actually pretend that. However you may’t ignroe that the dude had almost a half season of low 200 BA below 300 OBP in *AAA* THIS 12 months

Sodo Mojo: If the Mariners can solely select between maintaining Arozarena
or  buying and selling him and resigning Naylor this off season which one ought to the select. I assume that the final 12 months of Randy’s Arbitration will likely be just like the primary 12 months wage in Naylor’s deal.

Dan Szymborski: I’d in all probability select Arozarena

Visitor: 43% much less terrible continues to be a variety of terrible

Dan Szymborski: Hey, I by no means promised I WASNT terrible. Simply something occurring in Twitter or BlueSky proper now whilst you’re studying that is at a MINIMUM 43% worse

J: Who’s your NL rookie of the 12 months to this point?

Dan Szymborski: Only a word: I’m an NL ROY voter, and I’m not presupposed to reveal my emotions on this

James: Are you aware the place to seek out information on how usually the Manfred man scores in additional innings? Looks like the conversion late has been low and questioning if that traces up with actuality

Dan Szymborski: I’m nto positive, I haven’t actually finished it myself. I’m questioning if a combo of stathead queries can catch it

Pinstriped Energy: Yankees are rolling with 3 younger pitchers within the rotation proper. Not dangerous for a staff that has a repute for counting on past-peak overpriced free brokers. Does zips suppose Gil, Warren and Schlitter are long run options

Dan Szymborski: All 3 to an *extent*

Sodo Mojo: How a lot will this 12 months impact Cal Raliegh’s future zips projections.  Up to now it was arduous to venture him changing into an element time DH over the subsequent 3 years as a result of the bat was not sturdy sufficient. Do you suppose that this 12 months will change his projections sufficient so he might have a Joe Mauer like transition to both 1B or DH?

Dan Szymborski: the projections are fairly strong now!

Ethan: Otherthan studying this web site, what’s the #1 strategy to perceive sabermetrics higher?

Dan Szymborski: Merely asking questions on issues and making an attempt to reply them with investigation

Dan Szymborski: Each factor in sabermetrics cames as a result of somebody had a query

Dan Szymborski: WHY do groups rating runs

Dan Szymborski: WHY are pitcher hit totals seemingly unstable

Dan Szymborski: WHY the fricking hell do individuals suppose Jack Morris ought to be a Corridor of Famer

Jacob: Hello Dan! You talked about yesterday in your Connelly Early article that ZiPS has a “playoff mode” for assessing the best way rotations shorten up within the postseason. Are you aware but should you’ll write up a extra detailed playoff mode rating for October, and the way does the Phillies’ rating react to shedding Wheeler for the 12 months?

Dan Szymborski: (The reply to the final one is “individuals have dangerous concepts”)

Dan Szymborski: I don’t normally do the playoff rating, because you see it within the playoff projections!

Visitor: Good afternoon, Dan! Being a Mets fan, it looks as if I’d been listening to about how gifted Sproat was for years. It shocked me this 12 months when it appeared he took a step again and acquired leapfrogged by first McLean after which Tong. Now that he’s up and looking out fairly good, may he wind up being as pretty much as good or higher than the opposite two? What’s your rank for the three ROS, in addition to 2026 and past? Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: I believe all of them have a fairly good probability of being good long run. There’s a variety of taking a step ahead and perhaps taking a step again earlier than you’re taking a couple of extra ahead in prospect improvement

Bob Loblaw’s Regulation Weblog: Hello Dan, fake that you just’re Chaim Bloom. What would you do that winter?

Dan Szymborski: Calling the now Dan Szymborski housing Chaim Bloom’s soul and apologizing to him for the burden acquire he simply endured with the swtich

Dan Szymborski: I actually wish to attempt to flesh out what the infield seems to be like. This was sort of the play it by ear 12 months, and I don’t need one other winter the place I’m improvising mid-winter

Unabashed Cubs Fan: Hey Dan, who do you suppose begins for Cubs subsequent 12 months between 3 OF spots and DH?

Dan Szymborski: I believe it’ll look very similar to this 12 months, however Caissie on the market as a substitute of Tucker

Smokin’ Jim Leyland: Dan – can we anticipate that the Playoff Tigers will play extra just like the staff that has terrorized the Yankees’ bullpen the previous two nights than the staff of imposters that misplaced 2 of three in opposition to the White Sox and was not too long ago swept by the Oakland-Sacramento Athletics of Las Vegas?

Dan Szymborski: Like most issues, within the center!

Kristen: Are you shopping for the Rangers?  Their street file is horrendous and the hitting lineup is dotted with no-names, however they simply swept the staff with the perfect file in MLB and the rotation continues to be strong with out Evo,

Dan Szymborski: I’m not. the offense simply scares me

Insert Witty Identify Right here: What’s the perfect/worst factor about this season that you just loved/hated?

Dan Szymborski: Nicely, I’ve most hated the Orioles sort of sucking

Dan Szymborski: however I really like Cal Raleigh going nuts

Bardo Invoice: In your article on opt-out candidates you projected a reasonably large bump for Bregman in ZiPS, from a 2026 projectioin of two.4 WAR within the pre-season ZiPS to three.7 WAR now. However since getting back from damage he’s at solely 0.8 WAR with a 99 wRC+. How does ZiPS take care of that kind of pre-/post-injury cut up? Does the massive bump in his projection nonetheless really feel proper to you?

Dan Szymborski: I believe what I wrote was taken extra actually than I supposed. Bregman has a greater projection for 2026 than he did coming into 2025, however I believe his *normal trajectory* and the notion of his expertise degree is about the identical

Dan Szymborski: He’s a star, not a celebrity, on the mistaken facet of 30, and he can stick at 3B for fairly some time

Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose he’s change how any thinks about him. Most felt already constructive

Dan Szymborski: The complete ZiPS mannequin has all of the damage stuff; in season is an enormous less complicated

Dan Szymborski: bit

War2D2: Re: catchers being bizarre: check out Rick Wilkins’ profession someday.

Dan Szymborski: Ben Davis

Dan Szymborski: Ben Petrick

Dan Szymborski: Mickey Tettleton as a prospect was a GLOVE FIRST prospect within the minors

Dan Szymborski: Charles Johnson had a bizarre ass profession

Visitor: Is there anyway to trace anticipated fWar, that’s based mostly on anticipated stats versus real-life outcomes?

Dan Szymborski: to trace, no, however you coudl do one thing your self should you have been inventive

J: If you vote for ROY I’ll know that you just’re responding to me personally, at the very least.

Dan Szymborski: I’ll vote for an eligible candidate!

Jerry: Dan, simply wished to say effectively finished on that Mayo article. Actually spectacular perception.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks. I like after I get compliments for issues I didn’t do 🙂

Dan Szymborski: Ben wrote the piece!

Dan Szymborski: So please direct your plaudits at Mr. Clemens

Dan Szymborski: If Samuel Clemens is Mark Twain, ought to baseball author Ben Clemens be Park Twain?

johnboy: What does Jazz get on the open market?

Dan Szymborski: I believe jazz, like classical, will sells greatest when it’s one of many old skool names or a crossover, than for something new 🙂

Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t anybody have mrke but?

Jeremy: Have groups gotten meaningfully higher at taking part in matchups  with their place gamers (past simply looking for the platoon benefit) due to granular information on assault angles, efficiency in opposition to particular sorts of pitches, and many others.?

Dan Szymborski: I consider they’ve, however this stuff profit either side

Dan Szymborski: Like you might know Capo Ferro, however the different man could know Thibault. After which the hitter may need studied his Agrippa

Idiotic Failson: When you took a contemporary pitcher (velocity, pitch form recognition, and many others) and dropped him into the Nineteen Forties, what would his ERA appear to be? Would he utterly dominate since these hitters would wrestle with velocity, sequencing, and pitch form?

Dan Szymborski: I believe he’d do *fairly* effectively, however there are caveats

Dan Szymborski: SOME of the data received’t be straight relevant, just because hitters approaches are completely different

Dan Szymborski: Exhibiting up with a 98 mph fastball and a 91 mph changeup and slider will do extra to destroy Nineteen Forties hitters than particular data

Dan Szymborski: greater than the sequencing half, I believe

Dan Szymborski: since they’re such harmful instruments

Dan Szymborski: However the 98 mph will in all probability must be taken a bit off of it

Dan Szymborski: as a result of your supervisor is providing you with 350 innings and also you’re going to have lifeless arm in two years, and other people of 80 years later won’t ever keep in mind you after they speak about how sturdy pitchers have been within the outdated days as a result of they’ve forgotten all of the Ewell Blackwells

Karl Hungus: Finest baseball film?

Dan Szymborski: The Sandlot

21127: There are 5 collection left. I might love if, at this precise level within the season, a staff had one collection left in opposition to every staff in its division.

I’m the Apple: Might be extra for the mailbag, however: Who’s the one participant from every of the highest worldwide leagues (NPB, KBO, LMB, CPBL) with the very best projected rest-of-career MLB WAR in the event that they have been to make the leap at this time?

Dan Szymborski: Honeslty, I can’t do that one justice and I believe you shoudl positively ask in mailbag

Visitor: ought to the yankees commerce volpe this offseason? He’s struggled with extra than simply baseball, the yankees fandom seems to have damaged him. He nonetheless has excessive upside too, now we have already seen his potential. Volpe to Rockies confirmed?

Dan Szymborski: Volpe does appear to be he might use a change of surroundings

Greg: I do know it has solely been 3 begins however watching Kyle Bradish dominate whereas “recovering” needs to be a late-season vibrant gentle for Orioles followers. I really like him greater than anybody and I’m nonetheless fairly shocked/impressed.

Dan Szymborski: hmm

Dan Szymborski: there as soon as was a pitcher named bradish

Dan Szymborski: who ails had use recite the kaddish

Dan Szymborski: hmm

Dan Szymborski: his elbow intact

Dan Szymborski: he nonetheless has the knack

Dan Szymborski: uhhh.. one thing radish? I acquired myself in a bind

Farhandrew Zaidman: I might similar to to shout out Adam Ottavino on youtube actual fast, he’s doing every day exhibits and it’s a number of the greatest pitching content material on the market.

bob: If the rangers make the playoffs, it is going to be the perfect comeback since _____

Dan Szymborski: sliced bread

Dan Szymborski: his slider nonetheless bites like a radish?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno

Dan Szymborski: And the Tigers comeback final 12 months was higher

johnboy: if each participant was a free agent on the finish of the 12 months, who would get the biggest contract? Bobby Witt?

Dan Szymborski: Witt or Soto I assume

Greg: “Oy vey!” he mentioned, “There
Is not any want for a prayer!”
“My slider is sharp as a radish!”

Tiger Fan: Hey, statistical semantics query. Why is wOBA scaled to OBP and never OPS?

Dan Szymborski: I believe since OPS in itself is a bizarre stat and OBP ranges are extra acquainted amongst old skool followers

Aviaries: Would you give Cody Bellinger 9-figures should you have been GM of, say, the Padres or Dodgers? I fear about his manufacturing in different ballparks

Dan Szymborski: I *probalby* wouldn’t

Dan Szymborski: however I can see a particular staff having the justification

Jeremy: Analysts draw a distinction between true expertise that’s very autocorrelated (doesn’t change with time, or solely adjustments slowly attributable to age) and noise/luck that’s not autocorrelated in any respect. However is participant efficiency autocorrelated on intermediate timescales–days, weeks, months?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve truly experimented with this fairly a bit – I consider expertise as fluctuating in a variety

Dan Szymborski: In any other case, now we have approach too many no hitters and homer streaks and hitting streaks

Visitor: I keep in mind some time again there was an article evaluating Bichette to a poor mans Turner. Along with his latest bounce again within the final couple weeks since, what do you venture his contract to appear to be

Dan Szymborski: Don’t suppose he’ll get Turner cash

Dan Szymborski: We’ll discuss extra about this in offseason!

Greg:

Visitor: Finest sabermetric-focused e book to learn after ending The Ebook?

Dan Szymborski: I believe that hidden sport of baseball and the invoice james abstracts are foundational. Merely put, seeing the place sabermetrics “began” and understanding its evolution sort of makes you perceive the insides extra

Dan Szymborski: And it additionally is dependent upon the place you’re

Dan Szymborski: And keep in mind, I communicate from the attitude of somebody who has been into sabermetrics for 40 years

Greg: Since somebody requested you about films, I despatched you a picture and I believe you’ll adore it. I couldn’t get the sport to offer him fungus on his bathe sandals, although.

War2D2: I believe it’s scaled to OBP as a result of “wOPS” can be offensive.

War2D2: is a radish sharp although?

Dan Szymborski: a superb radish ought to be

Dan Szymborski: might additionally rhyme it with horseradish

Dan Szymborski: although must tinker

Dan Szymborski: I usually don’t attempt to write a limerick in dwell chat

Farhandrew Zaidman: On the wOBA v OPS matter – Tom Tango’s quick chapter on the subject in The Ebook all the time cracks me up. It’s principally “wOBA is healthier in each approach than OPS and right here’s why and we received’t be discussing OPS any extra on this e book”

Dan Szymborski: OPS is all the time controversial as a result of it’s a very helpful kludge

Dan Szymborski: truthfully, xFIP is similar approach

Dan Szymborski: xFIP is sort of silly. But it surely additionally sort of works as a result of HR totals for pitchers is sort of a crap stat

Dan Szymborski: so it really works by sucking much less

Dan Szymborski: We do a variety of brute power shortcuts in life as a result of they work kinda high quality

Pinstriped Energy: I like to consider OPS as only a bit analytical however nonetheless straightforward to grasp

Dan Szymborski: saber-adjacent

Tiger Fan: Thanks. I might’ve thought OPS was extra mainstream for catch-all offense than OBP (I hear far more dads speak about decide’s 1.100 OPS than Soto’s .400 OBP) which is what I assumed wOBA would goal

Greg: I all the time attempt to write a limerick in your dwell chat Dan, you may depend on me

Visitor: Is Anthony Volpe simply New York’s Marner? If that’s the case, Volpe for Lawrence butler 1 for 1?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t identified sufficient about hockey in 30 years to be making analogies

Farhandrew Zaidman: Mookie since declaring his season over has been like a .300/.400/.500 hitter. Possibly the answer all alongside was simply giving up?

Dan Szymborski: I imply, didn’t all of us study from that Voyager episode the place the ship was going into an anomaly and the configuration of the ship stored altering they usually realized that the answer was simply to sit down there and shut up?

12 to six: can’t see the dodgers being a sensible stomach location this offseason – they’ve pages and teo and a passel of of prospects on the come and freeman blocks stomach at 1b. they might pump the market and that i’m positive he’d love to return to la, however the match doesn’t appear to be sensical to me.

Dan Szymborski: yeah, I’m unsure dodgers would

Farhandrew Zaidman: Would you be in favor of MLB amending the Ohtani rule to permit his staff to maintain the DH if he is available in as a reduction pitcher (a la WBC)?

Dan Szymborski: I might, however I haven’t significantly contemplated the loopholes

Sawx: After a couple of Tolle begins, one Early begin, and one look for Kyle Harrison, which of the Sox lefties do you suppose makes the largest affect on the final month of the season?

Dan Szymborski: I believe Early is perhaps the most secure. I believe he’s higher than Harrison, and he didn’t advance fairly as rapidly as Tolle did

Dan Szymborski: Tolle actually has little or no higher minors expertise

James: Is it simply me, or has there been an uptick in hitters beginning to first after 3-ball pitches which might be clearly strikes and having to get referred to as again by the umpire? Makes me surprise how an ABS problem system will go

Dan Szymborski: hmm, unsure the right way to measure this!

Dan Szymborski: However I hadn’t seen it. However I don’t discover a variety of issues

Dan Szymborski: after which after I’m conscious of them, I hyper discover them

Insert Witty Identify Right here: I had buddies as a child, no I didn’t see that episode of Voyager.

Dan Szymborski: hey, I had buddies!

Dan Szymborski: You possibly can’t play goldeneye by your self

Dan Szymborski: and road fighter II is far more enjoyable with buddies

Dan Szymborski: or fireworks

Dan Szymborski: or this bizarre exterior violent cover and search sport we had. It was cover and search exterior, however if you discovered somebody, you may solely catch them by tackling them to the bottom earlier than they tackled youi to the bottom

Dan Szymborski: that sport’s REALLY not enjoyable wtih strangers who don’t know they’re taking part in the sport

Visitor: I believe the “mrke” query was presupposed to be:

“Which 2026 MLB free agent reliever would you give a contract price [more than $XM per year]?”

What’s your reply if X=10?

Dan Szymborski: I’d be comfy with Suarez, who isn’t going to require six years or anythign becuase of his age

Visitor: What do you suppose the marketplace for Josh Naylor will likely be within the offseason? He’s below 30 yrs outdated, and making a declare for commerce deadline MVP.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose it’s an enormous market, someplace between Walker and Santander

Karl Hungus: Odds MLB adopts the all star sport homerun off as a substitute of the ghost runner additional innings?

Dan Szymborski: Probalby very low. It’ sjust TOO completely different for MLB

Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose I’d prefer it, however I REALLY don’t like zombie runners

Dan Szymborski: and on some degree, I slightly or not it’s one thing new and obnoxiously completely different than ruining one thing that was already good

florp: what was your 9/11 like

Dan Szymborski: oh geez, I didn’t even notice at this time was 9/11

Dan Szymborski: I kinda heard about most of it later within the day

Dan Szymborski: I used to be at Damon’s in Lutherville consuming all you may eat ribs and $2 honey browns the evening earlier than for monday evening soccer

Dan Szymborski: that was the MNF the place ed mccaffrey shattered his leg and rodney williams had that 90 yard punt

Dan Szymborski: My mother referred to as me about 10 AM and it woke me up and she or he made some remark that somebody ran their airplane into the wtc and I assumed it was somebody flying just a little cessna or one thing and went again to mattress

Dan Szymborski: I then awakened about 1 to prepare since I used to be going to the ironbirds sport later and acquired cuaght up

Lowetide: Darren Daulton wasn’t a lot till he was one thing. What about Agustin Ramirez? Is he a future 1b? Like two years from now?

Dan Szymborski: I believe he’s a future 1B, however I’d maintain him at catcher till he conclusively proves in any other case

Dan Szymborski: what would the draw back be? the marlins lose?

Dan Szymborski: On that word, it’s 1 PM and time fo rme to move out

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everybody!

Dan Szymborski: See you on the NEXT installment

Dan Szymborski: perhaps I’ll tighten up the limerick, however I’ll in all probability neglect it