The Buck Continues Right here | FanGraphs Baseball

I’m not going to behave like Byron Buxton has been wholesome all yr or something. He’s already had two IL stints this season for 2 unrelated accidents, and simply this week he missed a recreation after being hit within the thigh with a pitch. This isn’t a single nagging, career-altering harm; this can be a man who simply can’t catch a break. Or who can’t catch with out breaking, quite.

However that is about as near a wholesome Byron Buxton season as we’re more likely to see. The 31-year-old has figured in 109 of Minnesota’s first 144 video games and picked up 467 plate appearances in these video games, placing him on tempo to qualify for the batting title for simply the second time in 11 large league seasons. And he’s made essentially the most of that prolonged run of enjoying time: .271/.332/.562 with 30 dingers and 21 steals. That comes out to a wRC+ of 140 (tied for tenth amongst certified hitters) and 4.7 WAR.

For all intents and functions, this can be a full season. Which isn’t one thing you’ll be able to take as a right the place Buxton is anxious.

For those who’ve ever seen Buxton in full flight — and “flight” shouldn’t be a lot of an exaggeration right here — you’ll be able to see that he’s some of the gifted baseball gamers of his technology. That a lot has by no means been in dispute, not for the reason that Twins picked him second general within the 2012 draft. However simply months into his minor league profession, the accidents began to pile up, and ever since then he’s struggled to do far more than tantalize.

The Twins, as you would possibly count on, have bent over backwards to make baseball’s inflexible schedule and guidelines match a participant who’s historically accessible solely intermittently. There was the closely incentive-laden contract, and the full-time DH experiment of 2023, which nonetheless resulted in solely 85 video games and 347 plate appearances.

However now, Buxton has registered back-to-back 100-game seasons for the primary time in his profession. Final season, he was restricted to 102 video games by varied lower-body illnesses as he performed his approach again to full health after offseason knee surgical procedure. This yr, he’s been full pace forward.

He retains his perplexing and irritating behavior of attracting impression accidents. Like, we’ve all been following baseball lengthy sufficient to know that generally a participant’s again or elbow or knees simply can’t sustain the calls for of the job. It sucks, nevertheless it’s a part of the sport.

The irritating factor about Buxton is that he additionally has a behavior of operating into partitions and flinging his physique into the bottom, and when a factor is transferring as rapidly as Buxton does at full tilt, that type of deceleration may be fairly harmful. Don’t blame Buxton, blame Sir Isaac Newton.

On prime of that, Buxton simply appears to have the worst luck in terms of fluke accidents.

A sinker to the leg is normally little greater than an annoyance, the type of occasion that impressed the immortal exhortation of the Little League coach: “We obtained ice!” What are the chances of Buxton catching a pitch proper on the kneecap?

However neither the persistent accidents nor the unfortunate knocks have saved Buxton down for lengthy this season. And that’s given us a glimpse into one thing that had hitherto solely been a factor of legend: A Full Buxton Season.

Buxton’s expertise, mixed with the small-sample weirdness that comes with solely enjoying 50 video games a yr generally, mixed with some genuinely odd quirks in his growth, has resulted in some bizarre numbers.

Like in 2020, when he performed 39 video games — two-thirds of a season that yr — and posted a 121 wRC+ with 13 dwelling runs… however solely walked twice. The wRC+ of -2 in 28 video games in 2018, adopted not too lengthy after by the wRC+ of 171 in 61 video games in 2021.

Clearly, every thing would’ve been totally different had Buxton persistently taken 550 plate appearances a yr, however what if that weren’t true?

One factor you’ll discover is that for a lot of the time we have been pining for a wholesome Buxton, he wasn’t all that good. Particularly not on the plate. In his earlier full season, 2017, Buxton was a 4.4-WAR participant not on the energy of his bat (92 wRC+) however on the energy of his legs and glove. Buxton swiped 29 luggage on 30 makes an attempt that yr, and posted the most effective defensive middle discipline season of the Statcast period.

To me, the only wildest factor about Buxton’s medial struggles is that this: He’s made eight journeys to the IL for lower-body accidents in his profession, plus quite a few different sprains and strains and bouts of tendinitis. He’s had two knee surgical procedures prior to now 36 months. He’s 31 years outdated, nearly 32. And he’s nonetheless one of many 5 quickest gamers in baseball. The defensive numbers have waned to the neighborhood of common, however he can nonetheless run sooner than most individuals can journey a motorcycle, and he’s an ideal 21-for-21 in stolen base makes an attempt this yr.

Nonetheless, Buxton’s bat developed late. Or quite, he’s gotten a lot better at translating his instruments into manufacturing than he was within the mid-2010s. So if we’re The Legendary Full Buxton Season, and incorporating his numbers from early in his profession, what we’re seeing in 2025 is approach higher than what might’ve been anticipated.

However for those who simply have a look at Buxton since his bat actually took off in 2019, his 2025 marketing campaign is — imagine it or not — about what you’d get by extrapolating his partial seasons out over a full yr’s value of enjoying time.

I don’t imply to be pollyannaish right here, however that’s fairly cool! The Legendary Full Buxton Season is like an elusive cryptid, and we’re studying that it’s not solely actual, nevertheless it additionally seems to be precisely prefer it was presupposed to. Right here’s to many extra sightings within the season to come back.