Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/9/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us! Welcome to a different version of my Tuesday chats. We’ve acquired a pleasant little streak of 4 straight weeks going, one thing that  hasn’t occurred since Might and June, simply earlier than the summer season journey started.

Jay Jaffe: I’m extra satisfied than ever that Johnson belongs within the Corridor. Nothing in opposition to Lou Piniella, who missed by one vote on the 2024 Period Committee poll whereas Jim Leyland acquired elected — with Johnson within the “5 votes or fewer scrum — however Johnson’s managerial profession is superior to Piniella’s in all the pieces however size, and he was an actual innovator when it comes to his utilization of private computer systems and his carrying on the Earl Weaver legacy.

Jay Jaffe: Anyhoo, I’ve acquired a bit within the pipeline in the present day about candidates for the 30-30 membership. Would you consider Juan Soto is the closest to becoming a member of from amongst this 12 months’s crop, and that he has extra steals over the previous ~2 months than any main leaguer? Yeah, bizarre occasions.

Alby: Of the pitchers who will end with fewer than 200 wins, whose election do you suppose would do essentially the most to get voters to vary their requirements – anyone who’s not a unicorn like DeGrom however would characterize the brand new degree that will enable a consultant cohort to observe him?

Jay Jaffe: I touched upon this a couple of weeks in the past after I did my Corridor of Fame progress sequence (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2025-progress-rep…). I feel the reply may be Chris Sale, who’s 36 years previous, has 143 wins, and has the next-highest S-JAWS after Verlander, Kershaw, and Scherzer (49.2). I don’t see him attending to 200 wins, however 3,000 strikeouts is a risk (he wants 454), and between his perennial Cy Younger candidacy and his bWAR rankings (together with six occasions in his league’s high 5), I feel he’s going to be the only option we see for a couple of years.

Jay Jaffe: Cole Hamels (48.2 S-JAWS, 163 wins) will probably be on the poll this winter and will probably be a preview case for this. He gained’t fare nicely, significantly due to his lack of a Cy Younger, however he’ll be the perfect candidate till the large guys hit the poll.

Phil: Would you agree that Rafaela *has* to play middle no matter who’s out there? I do know Clemens and others have addressed this, however I really feel just like the Sox overvalue versatility generally, which was an issue up to now with Kiké Hernandez and so forth.

Jay Jaffe: No lineup resolution is made in a vacuum, and whereas the metrics inform us that Ceddanne Rafaela is without doubt one of the finest middle fielders within the sport, the Pink Sox’s roster development is such that there could also be days the place he’s their most suitable choice at second base (the place he’s mainly common), as a result of David Hamilton (who’s excellent there) has a 55 wRC+.

Jay Jaffe: In different phrases, the Sox might have offense greater than protection on that individual day, or they might be utilizing a extra groundball-heavy pitcher who minimizes the Pink Sox’s benefit of getting an important middle fielder and permits them to place Duran there.

That mentioned, given the state of the Pink Sox outfield with Anthony doubtless completed for the 12 months and Abreu nonetheless sidelined (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-red-sox-are-stretched-thin-by-the-loss…), it’s in all probability a reasonably small set of circumstances the place all this could make sense, since placing Masataka Yoshido in left discipline (or proper) in all probability neutralizes a variety of different benefits conferred by placing Rafaela at second.

sodo mojo: What does a Eugenio Suarez deal appear to be subsequent 12 months.  He has been a monster on the plate this 12 months with 132 WRc+ and 45 bombs however he’s additionally going to be 35 and his protection has taken a big step again.  Is he taking a look at a brief 1-2 12 months deal however with a excessive AAV or is he ok that he can command a 3 12 months deal even with the chance?

Jay Jaffe: Oh I feel he will get three years, although it would take bells and whistles (choices, escalators) to get there. Possibly one thing within the 3/$60M+ vary.

Doug: Do you see any prospects of the WC spherical going to five video games ever? Might have the highest 2 seeds play in a 3 sport sequence for the highest seed (or allow them to

Jay Jaffe: I’m positive MLB would like to create extra playoff baseball (ugh) whereas decreasing the size of the common season, one thing Manfred and the house owners want to do, however completely gained’t f—— occur with out important monetary features for the gamers. My guess is that the house owners’ place for the upcoming CBA goes to be so dipped in shit that they gained’t get far with the thought.

Lord Thunder: Has Mark Vientos salvaged his probability to be within the Mets’ 2026 combine?

Jay Jaffe: the man has a 145 wRC+ within the second half and he’ll be a 12 months away from arbitration eligibility. Even when Pete Alonso workouts his participant choice and returns, I don’t see the Mets parting methods with Vientos until it’s a part of an enormous commerce that will get them one thing a lot better.

WinTwins0410: Jay, nice piece on Davey Johnson — thanks for writing it.  I assumed it was terrific — as was Bruce Weber’s obit within the New York Instances (undecided in case you noticed that).  If I could leap forward to the Eras committee balloting for the HoF after the season ends, I needed to ask: Regardless of how nicely Gary Sheffield did on his closing writers’ poll (63.9%), does he actually have a shot of getting in from the Eras committee, nevertheless tangential his PED connections could also be?  Looks like it’d be bizarre if a small committee let him in however not Bonds and Clemens.  What do you suppose?  The extra I give it some thought, the extra it “feels” to me like a committee (and Eras committees have been notoriously stingy towards anybody related to PEDs anyhow) would wrestle to confess Sheffield earlier than Bonds/Clemens.  Ideas?

Jay Jaffe: Thanks for the type phrases about Johnson and sure, I did see Weber’s piece, which was good. I feel you’ve hit on precisely the mess that the upcoming Period Committee faces. I actually don’t know the way it’s going to shake out besides that with Sheffield, Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Kent and (possibly) Lofton, Whitaker, and Dwight Evans it may very well be an absolute cluster—-.

Seattle: How instrumental is it that seattle resigns naylor, he’s such a sensible participant and is bringing all of those traits that seattle hasnt had since idk when, only a pleasure getting to look at this man each evening

Jay Jaffe: Naylor has been a well timed addition for the Mariners. Are you able to consider he’s 25-for-27 in stolen base makes an attempt this 12 months regardless of dash velocity that locations him within the 2nd percentile? That mentioned, he’s a ballplayer with limitations; proper now he’s in his third straight season with 2-3 WAR and a wRC+ within the 118-127 vary. That’s hardly a must-retain besides at a sure worth level.

2131, 1312: Do you suppose Colton Cowser is usually a legit middle fielder for the O’s? He doesn’t must be there daily for the following 5 years, however simply lengthy sufficient till … idk, Enrique Bradfield

Jay Jaffe: I’m not satisfied. The man hit for a 118 wRC+ final 12 months however has crashed to an 85 wRC+ with a 34.3% strikeout price this 12 months, which is fairly unplayable for an everyday who isn’t an elite fielder. To me that’s a man who ought to be again in Triple-A, not an on a regular basis common.

BobbyGrichHoF: Hey Jay. I used to be questioning what your ideas on Sammy’s responsible by affiliation steroid use. Sosa by no means failed a constructive take a look at, a variety of the proof is circumstantial like Piazza or Bagwell, and folks maintain him utilizing an interpreter in court docket in opposition to him, which is absolutely silly as a result of English shouldn’t be his first language. Love all the work you’ve completed.

Jay Jaffe: I feel a variety of racism has seeped into the portrayals of Sosa going again to Curt Schilling making enjoyable of him along with his “Baseball been berry, berry good to me” caricature on the 2002 Dwelling Run Derby and sure, the interpretation of his utilizing an interpreter in court docket. Not that Sosa’s personal conduct hasn’t helped to fan the flames or that he’s as pure because the pushed snow. However I’ve at all times been suspicious of Manfred publicly noting that David Ortiz’s reported constructive on the survey take a look at was for a substance that will have been challenged in arbitration, with out mentioning whether or not the identical was true for Sosa.

RAGBRAI: A whole lot of good rookie pitchers. Is any one in every of them off to a begin just like present HOFers? In others phrases based mostly on their rookie 12 months, who has an excellent foundation to construct on that in 10-12 years (or extra) they’ve HOF potential. I notice that is all speculative.

Jay Jaffe: Assuming you’re speaking about precise rookies and never younger pitchers à la Paul Skenes (the apparent reply in case you are),  accidents are so prevalent that even speculating might be a waste of time. Lower than a full 12 months in to a pitcher’s profession I’d be wanting extra at stuff than efficiency if I needed to consider his long-term profile, with guys like Misiorowski and Schlittler standing out  — however since we don’t have, say, Stuff+ going again far sufficient to make comparisons to Corridor of Famers, it’s all form of fruitless.

Visitor: Is Tanner Scott cooked?

Jay Jaffe: The stuff remains to be ok, and he’s getting batters to chase, however… it’s not figuring out typically. i feel it’s very laborious to dwell as only a two-pitch pitcher; he in all probability has so as to add a 3rd providing to keep away from falling into the identical patterns.

2017: Does Decide dropping that MVP after which rocketing previous Altuve in WAR really feel like a humorous flip of occasions?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, Decide was (and nonetheless is) the youthful participant with the upper ceiling so it felt at the very least considerably inevitable. However I don’t suppose anybody noticed this coming.

Visitor: Is Shohei actually a unicorn? He could also be doing it higher than Babe Ruth, however he’s not distinctive in being a MLBer who has hit and pitched in important portions.

Jay Jaffe: Sure, he’s a unicorn. It’s not simply that he did each nicely, it’s that he’s completed them contemporaneously. Ruth’s double-duty days didn’t final very lengthy, and he was doing all of it pre-integration in opposition to farm boys who pumped fuel or ran the final retailer within the offseason. Ohtani has been stored on a brief leash due to his newest harm however he’s already had extra seasons with 100 innings and 500 plate appearances than Ruth (3 to 1); you’d must go right down to 151 PA to get three seasons the place Ruth pulled such double responsibility.

Pinstriped Energy: Stanton seems like he’ll come proper as much as the for 500 residence runs earlier than his contract runs out. Makes you marvel: excluding PEd gamers and cheats, what essentially the most residence runs by somebody not within the Corridor, and may they be in there?

Jay Jaffe: Fairly simple to reply that. Excluding the not-yet-eligible Pujols and Cabrera, the highest residence run hitter exterior the Corridor who was by no means linked to PEDs is Carlos Delgado (473). Alas, he’s a man with simply 44.4 profession WAR as he was a subpar defender and baserunner who retired after his age-37 season and simply doesn’t have the portfolio of a Corridor of Famer. A real mensch, although. https://www.si.com/mlb/2014/12/15/jaws-2015-hall-of-fame-ballot-carlos…

Nancy’s Buddy Sluggo: How shut was Bobby Bonds to being a HOFer? He had the height, however he didn’t compile loads. (Possibly incessant smoking was an impediment to continued efficiency?!?) I’m positive within the time earlier than 3 True Outcomes, his Ok charges had been a deal killer. I ponder if it could be totally different if he was having the identical profession in the present day. Thanks, man!

Jay Jaffe: Bobby didn’t make it into The Cooperstown Casebook however I’ve written about him briefly earlier than, most notably on the bygone Pinstriped Bible. Updating the numbers:

A pure middle fielder who acquired caught in proper discipline by the Giants as a result of he had the misfortune of arriving when Willie Mays was nonetheless a going concern, Bonds averaged 5.9 bWAR per 12 months from 1969 by 1974 as a Big earlier than being traded to the Yankees for Bobby Murcer. He didn’t lose a beat, hitting .270/.375/.512 with 32 homers and 30 steals in his lone season in pinstripes, good for five.0 WAR…

Bonds appeared to spend a lot of his profession underneath a cloud of dangerous luck. He and Reggie Jackson had been virtually precisely the identical age and debuted one 12 months aside. Each had energy, appreciable velocity and a ton of strikeouts, and completed with related profession price stats (.268/.353/.471/129 OPS+ for Bonds to .262/.356/.490/139 OPS+ for Jackson)…

Jay Jaffe: But one was a superduperstar who gained an MVP award and 5 World Collection rings, and caught round into his  forties. The opposite by no means completed greater than third in an MVP vote, performed simply three postseason video games, left the majors at 35, his profession foreshortened by issues with alcohol.

Nancy’s Buddy Sluggo: I’m about the identical age as you, and I don’t suppose I’ve cared for a single MLB Commissioner throughout my life. Who do you suppose was the perfect of the lot throughout our period?

Jay Jaffe: Giamatti, for banning Pete Rose.

Nancy’s Buddy Sluggo: How do you suppose the market will see Michael King this winter? He’s an exquisite pitcher who’s been banged up in ten other ways in 2025. If he stays in an upright and locked place in September and October, do you suppose a long-term deal will probably be ready for him?

Jay Jaffe: Sure. Any person will take the chance as a result of the ceiling is so excessive

Nancy’s Buddy Sluggo: The place do you stand on participant/managers moving into the Corridor in the event that they had been excellent at each issues however not nice at both?

Jay Jaffe: Gotta be nice at one thing. Nice is a reasonably malleable time period and we are able to haggle over the specifics however I have to be satisfied a man was at the very least within the argument for probably the greatest at one in every of his roles.

Nancy’s Buddy Sluggo: I’ve at all times tried to take a look at potential HOFers objectively for his or her efficiency and never take note of their personalities, however Schilling makes it unattainable for me. Can you separate the gamers from the noise, even when it’s ugly noise?

Jay Jaffe: It’s develop into tough to unattainable as soon as the writers started invoking the so-called character clause.

Jay Jaffe: Which actually was barely paid consideration to earlier than Mark McGwire hit the poll in 2007.

Dan: If Juan Soto is usually a chief in steal does that imply he or his base coach figured one thing out that isn’t associated to bodily expertise and over the low season different sooner gamers will determine what it’s and subsequent 12 months will probably be an enormous variety of steals?

Jay Jaffe: As famous inside, a few of this owes to the 2023 introduction of the disengagement rule and the bigger bases, however the Mets have a superb first base coach in Antoan Richardson, who has completed some drills with video to assist gamers be taught numerous pitchers’ strikes to first. Soto is already a really, very laborious employee who has an important eye for element when learning video, so add that to the benefits that runners now have and also you’ve acquired a template for extra gamers getting extra aggressive in relation to stealing.

Visitor: Hello Jay!  Very dumb query that I can’t appear to search out a solution to.  How does say a Sac Fly (that brings in a run) influence WRC and WAR?  Do these formulation tab it as an out like every other?

Jay Jaffe: It’s simply one other out so far as wRC+ and WAR are involved. These features can be captured in one thing situational comparable to WPA or RE24 (and naturally RBI)

bringbackpologrounds: Sorry if this can be a fundamental query, however when will we be taught who makes it onto the modern period poll?

Jay Jaffe: Early November.

2131, 1312: If Verlander (3.64 FIP) and Scherzer (4.95 FIP) nonetheless aren’t prepared to hold it up after this season, is there a marketplace for both of them? What sorts of contenders would possibly take a swing?

Jay Jaffe: virtually actually some form of market, however groups will probably be taking a look at them as 4/5 starters good for possibly 20-25 begins slightly than a full workload.

Jay Jaffe: They’ll value greater than the standard 4/5, in fact, so don’t wait up for them in locations like Cincinnati, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Milwaukee, and so forth.

WestCoastPhan: Non-JAWS HOF query for you. Trea Turner has 26 on the Black Ink metric (avg. HOF has 27). How a lot do you think about these different rules-of-thumb when serious about a participant’s HOF possibilities? Additionally, how a lot do you take a look at the fWAR numbers (e.g. Turner is at 47.5 fWAR however solely 41.9 bWAR) — I get JAWS doesn’t use fWAR, however do you think about it?

Jay Jaffe: For a man like Turner, the place the defensive techniques are to date aside, it’s going to in all probability make sense to maintain fWAR in thoughts if it’s a dramatic distinction to bWAR however for essentially the most half they are usually shut sufficient to work with besides at catcher, the place fWAR’s skill to seize framing (and bWAR not even making an attempt to) makes it my device of alternative.

Jay Jaffe: Black ink makes way more sense to take a look at for offense-first positions. No one ought to anticipate a shortstop or catcher to have the identical quantity of black ink as a primary baseman.

Jay Jaffe: Okay of us, that’s it from me for in the present day! Thanks a lot for stopping by. Please tip your waiters and waitresses.