Shohei Ohtani Is Virtually the Greatest Leadoff Hitter Ever, Once more

To nobody’s shock, Shohei Ohtani is having an enormous season. His 170 wRC+ is second solely to Aaron Decide with 192. He’s on tempo to tie his profession excessive of 54 house runs. He leads all of baseball with 127 runs scored. Oh, and he’s began doing that pitching factor once more. Don’t let his 3.75 ERA idiot you. He’s solely made 12 appearances and thrown 36 innings, however his 2.47 anticipated ERA, 2.17 FIP, and a pair of.53 anticipated FIP are all career-bests. His common fastball velocity is up. He’s placing out as many batters as ever whereas slashing his stroll charge and avoiding arduous contact. There’s no scarcity of causes to write down about Ohtani, however our topic at present is his spot within the lineup.

Final Tuesday, Ohtani hit his forty sixth house run. It left his bat at 120 mph, making it the hardest-hit ball of his complete profession. I wrote an entire article about it. It was additionally his one centesimal house run as a Dodger (in simply his second 12 months as a Dodger!). Misplaced amid all that hoopla was a unique milestone. I uncared for to say on the time that it was Ohtani’s forty second house run of the season from the leadoff spot, which set a brand new report. It’s essentially the most ever. He additionally homered twice on Sunday, to push the report to 44. Ought to we watch all three of these latest house runs? I believe it’s greatest that we do.

The outdated report was not notably outdated. It belonged to Ronald Acuña Jr., who performed his scorched earth 2023 marketing campaign towards the pitchers of the world whereas batting first for the Braves. The truth is, eight of the highest 10 seasons have come previously 9 years, 5 of them previously 4 years. That shouldn’t essentially come as a shock. House run energy has elevated over the course of baseball historical past, and lineup optimization has turn out to be the norm during the last a number of years. Groups are stacking their greatest hitters within the first and second spots, and the very best hitters are inclined to hit homers. Right here’s the highest 10 in keeping with our pals at Stathead:

All the identical, Ohtani has damaged one other all-time report, and he’s obtained 18 extra video games to push it so excessive that it’s unlikely to be damaged once more any time quickly (at the least by anyone not named Ohtani). It’s value celebrating. Furthermore, it’s not simply the house runs. Ohtani is placing up one of many biggest leadoff seasons in main league historical past. As soon as once more, Stathead can provide us the splits. Amongst gamers with at the least 500 plate appearances in a season out of the leadoff spot, his 1.010 OPS there ranks fourth all time. The participant in first? The Dodgers’ present no. 2 batter, Mookie Betts, in 2018 whereas he was with the Purple Sox. Second comes Corridor of Famer Rickey Henderson in 1990 and third is Acuña in 2023 once more. What do these three gamers have in widespread? All of them gained MVP awards in these specific seasons.

It’s in all probability too late for Ohtani to catch Betts on the high, however Henderson and Acuña are very a lot inside attain. If we attempt to examine apples to apples by sOPS+, which compares Ohtani to league-wide leadoff manufacturing, we’ll discover that he’s at 165, the fifth-highest mark of all time.

I’ve obtained three extra enjoyable information for you. The primary is that though Ohtani is placing up among the best leadoff campaigns ever, it’s truly not his greatest leadoff marketing campaign! Ohtani moved to the leadoff spot final 12 months on June 17, proper as he was beginning his hottest stretch of your complete season. He made 312 plate appearances batting second and 419 batting first. He put up a 171 wRC+ within the second spot and a 187 wRC+ as a leadoff hitter. As you may recall, Ohtani gained his third MVP final season. He completed with a 180 wRC+ for the second season in row, whereas additionally turning into the founding member of the 50/50 Membership, with 54 house runs and 59 stolen bases. If we decrease our minimal to 400 PA, we’ll discover that the 2025 model of Ohtani has dropped to the seventh-best OPS of all time, however the 2024 model has jumped onto the checklist in second place, simply 5 factors of OPS and one level of sOPS+ behind Betts’ 2018 season. In different phrases, it will be completely truthful to say that Shohei Ohtani is placing up one of many biggest seasons of all time for a leadoff batter, but additionally that he was a fair higher leadoff hitter final 12 months.

The second enjoyable reality is that Ohtani isn’t essentially worse this season. You would argue that he’s simply been rather less lucky. I understand that it sounds weird to explain the second-best hitter within the recreation, who’s closing in on his fourth MVP in 5 years, as unfortunate, however Ohtani’s .311 BABIP is his worst mark since 2021. His .438 xwOBA is simply 4 factors off the profession excessive he posted final season, however his .415 wOBA this 12 months is 16 factors under his 2024 wOBA. That .023 hole between his wOBA and xwOBA this season is the most important of his profession (apart from the brief 2020 season). I’m not saying Ohtani’s lack of luck is solely chargeable for this ever-so-slight dip in manufacturing; he’s not hitting the ball fairly as arduous as he did final 12 months, and he’s not placing it within the air fairly as typically. Nonetheless, xwOBA thinks he’s just about precisely pretty much as good as he was final 12 months, simply with worse outcomes. We’re completely splitting hairs right here, however Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Created Plus thinks he’s been even higher, giving him a career-high 185 mark, in comparison with 176 final 12 months. It’s secure to say that Ohtani is within the midst of the very best two-season stretch as a leadoff hitter in baseball historical past.

The final reality is essentially the most enjoyable: Pretty much as good as Ohtani has been as a leadoff hitter, he’s been much more beneficiant to opposing leadoff batters. I instructed you that he has a 1.010 OPS and a 165 sOPS+ from the leadoff spot. Nicely, he’s confronted 23 leadoff batters to this point this season, they usually’ve hit for a mixed 1.071 OPS and 182 sOPS+. They’re destroying him. They’re batting .409 and touching him up for a 6.23 ERA. Small pattern measurement or not, he’s turned opposing leadoff hitters right into a batter who’s higher than Shohei Ohtani, and that’s solely barely a factor.