Cal Raleigh Has Set a Document, and Leveled the AL MVP Race

Early within the season, the American League Most Invaluable Participant race didn’t appear to be a lot of a race in any respect. Persevering with a stretch of dominance courting again to the latter days of April 2024, Aaron Choose was destroying opposing pitching at a stage not seen since Barry Bonds, placing himself on a tempo to problem his 2022 AL file of 62 residence runs and even flirting with a .400 batting common. He couldn’t preserve that breakneck clip, nonetheless, and whereas he’s cooled off, Cal Raleigh has closed the hole, setting a house run file of his personal whereas powering the Mariners’ bid for a playoff spot.

On Sunday towards the Athletics at T-Cell Park, Raleigh went 3-for-5 with a pair of two-run homers, each off lefty Jacob Lopez; the primary had an estimated distance of 448 ft — his longest of the season — and the second 412 ft. On Monday towards the Padres, Raleigh went deep towards JP Sears, a solo homer with an estimated distance of 419 ft.

The house runs towards the A’s have been Raleigh’s forty eighth and forty ninth of the season; with them, he tied after which surpassed Salvador Perez’s 2021 complete to say the one season file for a participant whose main place is catcher. The shot towards the Padres was his fiftieth, an unfathomable quantity for a participant who spends most of his days squatting behind the plate.

Raleigh was really serving because the Mariners’ designated hitter on Monday. Because the Royals did (and nonetheless do) with Perez, the Mariners have stored Raleigh’s bat within the lineup on days he’s not catching by DHing him. In 2021, Perez hit 33 homers in 122 video games as a catcher and 15 homers in 40 video games as a DH. By means of Tuesday, Raleigh has hit 40 homers in 99 video games as a catcher, and 10 in 31 video games as a DH. The primary of these totals provides Raleigh a transparent shot on the single-season file for residence runs hit as a catcher (i.e., excluding these hit whereas enjoying different positions):

Raleigh has been so prolific that he really has a shot at Choose’s single-season file as properly. In 2022, Choose hit 52 homers by way of his group’s first 133 video games, so Raleigh is simply two off that tempo. Within the close to time period, staying abreast goes to be notably difficult, as Choose not solely homered in sport 133, but additionally video games 134 by way of 136 earlier than cooling off barely.

Relating to Raleigh’s probabilities at 60 homers or extra — a feat achieved 9 instances by six completely different gamers — Dan Szymborski was sort sufficient to run the ZiPS odds. By the system’s estimate, Raleigh presently has a 32% probability at reaching 60 homers, 25% for 61, 17% for 62, and seven% for 63, which might give him the AL file.

After all, Raleigh has performed extra than simply hit dingers for the Mariners, and the success of his season doesn’t rely on whether or not he will get to 60 homers, or 63. He’s batting .245/.352/.591 for a 159 wRC+, second within the AL behind Choose. He’s drawn extra walks (76) than any AL participant moreover Choose (91), and regardless of his famously sizable caboose and Seventeenth-percentile dash velocity, he’s stolen a career-high 14 bases in 17 makes an attempt.

Raleigh has performed all this whereas enjoying robust protection on the hardest place. He hasn’t allowed a single handed ball in 99 video games behind the plate; the Tigers’ Dillon Dingler is the one different catcher who’s performed that in comparable enjoying time (96 video games). Raleigh’s 24.7% caught-stealing price doesn’t make him the second coming of Yadier Molina, however it’s nonetheless practically three share factors above the league common (21.8%).

Raleigh’s greatest defensive attribute is his pitch framing. By FanGraphs’ estimate, he’s been eight runs above common in that division, the majors’ fourth-highest complete. Different measures place the worth of his framing in the same ballpark. By Statcast’s estimate, Raleigh’s framing has been 4 runs above common, his throwing two above common, and his pitch blocking one under common, the absence of handed balls however (the Mariners’ 45 wild pitches rank third within the AL). Baseball Prospectus grades Raleigh’s framing at 8.5 runs above common, his throwing at 0.6 runs above common, and his blocking at -0.3 runs under common. Sports activities Information Options, which tracks DRS, features a breakout for Strike Zone Runs; it isn’t included in Baseball Reference’s calculations for WAR, however it’s printed each there as RszC, and at FanGraphs as rSZ. By SIS’ estimate, Raleigh’s framing has been 4 runs above common.

By means of Tuesday, Raleigh is tied with Choose for the lead in FanGraphs’ model of WAR with 7.3. With DRS because the defensive enter, he trails Choose in Baseball Reference’s model of WAR, 6.8 to five.9 — however provided that’s with out being allowed credit score for his framing, I don’t suppose that’s the fitting solution to examine them. Having turned to fWAR for catcher valuations in my Corridor of Fame deliberations, I believe our measure is the higher software for the job, whether or not we’re evaluating catchers to different catchers or to non-catchers. I understand that not all people is on board with the notion that catchers’ framing capability — which exists throughout the margins of umpires’ capability to understand the outlines of an invisible strike zone and make snap judgments in actual time — ought to be rewarded, however I’m reminded of a quote from Angels catcher Jason Castro in 2020, which Davy Andrews referred to as consideration to some years in the past:

“My job is to maintain strikes strikes. I imply, that’s actually what I’m attempting to do: Reward the pitcher as typically as potential for doing his job. All the pieces outdoors of that’s type of like cherry on prime, if you may get some additional pitches.”

As for individuals who have reservations about whether or not framing is one way or the other “dishonest,” the very fact is that MLB itself sanctions the apply by monitoring pitch framing by way of Statcast and celebrating its prime practitioners. What’s extra, the way forward for robotic umpiring by way of the Automated Ball and Strike system will rely on a restricted variety of challenges per sport versus electronically calling each pitch, one other signal that framing is right here to remain. It’s a talent, albeit one whose worth has diminished considerably as the ground has risen as a result of instruction for improved approach (such because the one-knee catching stance) and the removing of the laggards. Lengthy story brief, framing is germane to any dialogue of catcher worth, together with MVP arguments, and I don’t suppose we will pretty consider Raleigh’s MVP case with out contemplating his affect on protecting strikes strikes.

Thoughts you, I don’t suppose WAR (of any taste) ought to be the only enter in MVP consideration. It’s a context-neutral measure that ranges the enjoying subject by adjusting for the issues we will alter for, however it’s a bit noisy, notably relating to protection. It’s truthful to include context into MVP deliberations, and we will do significantly better than RBI (the place Raleigh has a 107-93 edge on Choose) with stats comparable to Win Likelihood Added, Championship WPA, Clutch, and RE24.

I’ll get to these, however first as for Choose, early within the season it appeared as if he’d simply financial institution a 3rd MVP award after profitable in each 2022 and ’24. As late as Could 21, he nonetheless had a batting common above .400 (.402/.491/.755, good for a 237 wRC+), and as late as August 6, he nonetheless had a slugging share above .700 (.339/.446/.702). That final date is shortly after the slugger returned from a 10-day stint on the injured listing as a result of a proper flexor pressure. The harm, suffered whereas trying to throw a runner out on the plate on July 26, has restricted Choose to DH responsibility, forcing supervisor Aaron Boone to check Giancarlo Stanton in proper subject to maintain his red-hot bat within the lineup. Choose, who was on a 58-homer tempo earlier than touchdown on the IL, says the harm hasn’t affected his swing, however his .200/.373/.385 line (116 wRC+) with three homers since returning says in any other case.

Nonetheless, the massive fella leads the majors in each class along with his .321/.437/.663 (192 wRC+) general line. By means of Tuesday, he held the batting common lead by 5 factors over Jonathan Aranda, the on-base share lead by 34 factors over Will Smith, the slugging share lead by 51 factors over Shohei Ohtani, and the wRC+ lead by 23 factors over Ohtani.

After logging extra enjoying time in heart subject than proper in 2024 (and in 2022 as properly), Choose has performed completely proper subject this season when not DHing. In 80 video games, he’s been above common in proper by each DRS (two runs) and FRV (4 runs), however when he’ll return to the sphere is in query. He’s presently going by way of a throwing development; earlier this week, he reportedly threw to bases from his spot in proper subject for the primary time for the reason that harm, albeit not at 100%, and described not with the ability to play protection as “brutal” given his capability to assist his group. The longer he’s restricted to DHing, the extra it suppresses his worth, so in case you’re utilizing WAR to information your MVP vote (actual or theoretical), the image may change earlier than season’s finish.

Right here’s a comparability of Choose and Raleigh when it comes to their respective month-to-month and working stats:

At the very least from the vantage of these end-of-the-month cutoffs, the 2 gamers have been separated by greater than a win within the early going. Raleigh closed the hole when Choose tailed off in June, and since then, the 2 have been lower than half a win aside. Raleigh himself cooled off in July to the purpose that he was much less invaluable in additional enjoying time. Each gamers are flirting with the Mendoza Line this month, however whereas they’ve remained above-average producers because of their energy, others have picked up floor on the WAR leaderboard, and one specifically could belong within the MVP dialogue as properly: Bobby Witt Jr., whose outstanding 10.5-WAR season final yr, which featured 32 homers, 31 steals, 12 FRV, and a 169 wRC+, was overshadowed by Choose’s 11.3-WAR season.

Witt hasn’t been fairly as stellar this yr, however he’s hitting .296/.353/.501 (129 wRC+) with 19 homers and 34 steals whereas enjoying even higher protection (15 FRV). His 6.5 WAR is third within the majors behind Choose and Raleigh, however he’s closing the hole. In Monday’s version of his e-newsletter, Joe Sheehan identified that for the reason that All-Star break, Witt has been extra invaluable than the opposite two candidates mixed when it comes to fWAR, now with 1.9 to Raleigh’s 1.2 and Choose’s 0.3. Shoehorning him into the desk above:

Whereas each the Yankees (72-60) and Mariners (71-62) led their respective divisions for a great stretch of the primary half, they’re now second and third within the Wild Card race behind the Pink Sox (73-60). The Royals (68-65) have been 31-28 by way of Could however went 8-18 in June and have been 47-50 on the All-Star break. They’ve gone 21-16 since and are actually three video games behind the Mariners for the third Wild Card spot — nonetheless long-shots (14.2% Playoff Odds), however with odds bettering from 5.4% as of August 8. It’s not too late for them to vary the narrative of their season, and likewise, with a month to play, it’s not too late for Witt to nostril his method even additional into the dialogue.

Turning to these context-sensitive measures:

Raleigh leads the AL in common ol’ WPA and cWPA, the Baseball Reference stat that measures a participant’s affect on a group profitable the World Sequence. Choose is second within the league in each of these classes and first in Context Impartial Wins (WPA/LI), which takes into consideration the sport leverage of that WPA. Choose additionally leads in RE24, the run expectancy based mostly on the baserunner/out state however excluding the inning/rating state, and its companion, REW, a conversion of that RE24 determine to wins; the trade price varies based mostly upon scoring setting. Witt’s solely edge on these gamers is in his Clutch rating, which tracks the distinction between how significantly better a participant does in high-leverage conditions than in a context-neutral setting.

I don’t suppose one can presently make a powerful sufficient case to anoint Witt MVP forward of the 2 sluggers; Sheehan’s level was that with one month to play, he’s inside placing distance regardless of having a really completely different arc to his season. Proper now, Raleigh and Choose seem like neck-and-neck, and so they’re heading into the house stretch. In 4 weeks, we could have extra readability as to who deserves the MVP award, and it ought to be a whole lot of enjoyable seeing how the race performs out.