RosterResource Chat – 8/7/25

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the first post-trade deadline RosterResource Chat! Such a enjoyable week. Now right here’s a reminder that it’s by no means too early for offseason questions.

Shout out to Jon for getting our Platoon Lineups characteristic up and working … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/platoon-lineups/diamondbacks

Nonetheless a number of extra issues so as to add, together with “final 6 lineups”, however this ought to be an ideal useful resource all year long.

Sorpresas: If Brandon Woodruff retains dealing by the top of the season (& hopefully into the playoffs) what sort of contract will he be taking a look at? 4 years $100M doable?

Jon Becker: He seems to be to be all the best way again, however 4/100 nonetheless appears fairly aggressive for a man who can be at below 100 innings together with the playoffs after not pitching in MLB for round two years, plus he’ll be coming into his age-33 season. I feel one thing like 3/63 with an decide out after the primary yr sounds about proper.

Visitor: i’ve a dumb fantasy purpose to maintain asking, however what are the probabilities of simply one extra Carroll CF begin? as you predicted, they went away after Grichuk bought dealt. any damage or one-week shenanigan potentialities?

Jason Martinez: As issues presently stand, they will’t discipline an OF with out Thomas or Barrosa within the lineup and they might play CF over Carroll. Solely approach I see it taking place is when Pavin Smith comes again and so they need to discipline a lineup with him, Locklear (1B), and Del Castillo (DH). Then Smith must play RF and Carroll would play CF. So it’s at the least a risk.

Chris: I used to be curious what Yanks wouldve carried out if Slater hadnt gotten injured the day earlier than Decide was activated.  It looks like they didnt know they had been gonna add Caballero after they traded for Rosario, so possibly Amed wouldve been gone?

Jon Becker: Nah, they wouldn’t have traded for Rosario simply to DFA him a pair days later. Cashman was certain to level out that Caballero having choices obtainable was a purpose they went out and bought him, so he would have gone to AAA.

Mac: Bubba Chandler time but?

Jason Martinez: The Pirates have a TBD listed for Saturday (8/9) however Chandler simply pitched on 8/5. My guess is that they wait at the least 1 extra flip after which give him 4-5 MLB begins to complete out the season. He’s at 93 IP proper now and I feel they’d be snug getting him to the 130-135 IP vary.

Warren: how do you suppose the blue jays handle their roster when Springer and Gimenez come again? do they DFA Ty France?

Jon Becker: Buddy Kennedy’s the straightforward one to kick off the roster for one in every of them since he’s a journeyman who simply joined the roster, however the different spot is more durable. France is a 1B-only bench man to start with, and he’s the one hitter on the roster apart from Kennedy with a below-average wRC+, so it feels prefer it mainly needs to be him barring one other damage.

clydethedog: any likelihood giants convey up Eldridge earlier than September?

Jason Martinez: Yeah I feel so, particularly in the event that they’re utterly out of the playoff race. I feel Posey understands the significance of retaining the fan base engaged and an Eldridge call-up would draw loads of curiosity. Nonetheless has some issues to work on however he’s crushing the ball in AAA.

Opifijikl: Didn’t Jarren Duran begin out as an infielder? Any concepts why the Pink Sox don’t attempt him there once more and preserve Rafaela in Middle Area?

Jon Becker: Duran hasn’t performed the infield since he performed 20 video games in A-ball at 2B in 2018, so it could be an enormous ask to maneuver him again there. Rafaela’s an elite CF however Duran actually isn’t unhealthy on the market, and I feel elite CF/maybe-awful-and-definitely-uncomfortable 2B isn’t as safe a combo nearly as good CF/strong 2B.

Visitor: What’s the plan for Bradish ROS?

Jason Martinez: He has 3 rehab begins below his belt and bought roughed up in 3 innings in his final one. I’d count on 2 extra MiLB begins after which activated in late August. That ought to give him about 6-7 MLB begins earlier than season’s finish.

Visitor: Mackenzie Gore: injured, crew breaks all their pitchers, tough patch, he’s similar to this, all the above?

Jon Becker: I feel tough patch is the likeliest reply, however why he’s within the tough patch requires some extra investigating. I’d be fairly involved about him tipping pitches if I used to be the Nats, 60 pitches to 21 batters with simply seven whiffs is extraordinarily uncommon for a man together with his stuff.

James: All of the gamers the Astros acquired have a number of years of management. How do they break the logjam subsequent yr? Does Walker or Paredes get traded or does somebody need to study to play 2B?

Jason Martinez: I feel they’ll attempt to commerce Paredes. Nonetheless 2 years of crew management and he has an .829 OPS so worth ought to be robust. However they’ll need to a backup plan simply in case there isn’t a robust marketplace for him. Shifting him to 2B isn’t ideally suited. There can be some DH at-bats open if Alvarez is wholesome and might play LF (Altuve again to 2B) on a constant foundation. However I wouldn’t depend on that.

Nate: Do you might have an understanding/are you able to clarify a little bit about how the Astros luxurious tax works now after including Correa? I’ve heard combined issues so far as if we managed to remain below it or not with the cash the Twins included…however that appears thoughts boggling to consider

Jon Becker: The intricacies require extra rationalization that I’ve time to supply on this chat, however if you wish to chat you will discover me on X or Bluesky or electronic mail rosters@fangraphs.com and I may give extra element! The TLDR is that I’ve presently bought them at juuuuuuuuuuust a little bit bit below the CBT line, about $2M from hitting it, which is such a small quantity that they very properly may go over, particularly with all of the injured gamers they’ve needed to pay.

Phil: If the playoffs began tomorrow, would Yoshida be on the postseason roster? What if they begin after they’re really beginning?

Jason Martinez: Yeah he’d be on the roster. Whether or not he’d begin or not is the query. He’s been within the lineup vs RHP and I feel they’re making an attempt to determine if he can regain his earlier type. He had a 135 wRC+ vs RHP in 2024. Presently, you may make the argument that having Romy Gonzalez within the lineup at 2B and transferring Rafaela to CF (Duran in LF, Anthony at DH) is their most suitable choice. Identical deal if Marcelo Mayer is wholesome.

Visitor: Do we predict Ben Joyce comes again at full power subsequent yr? What’s his anticipated position?

Jon Becker: We by no means bought many specifics on his damage apart from that he tore his labrum, which is actually a nasty damage, although we don’t know the way unhealthy a tear. As finest I can discover, there’s no clear timetable both. IF he’s again to 102-105 mph and IF the Angels don’t signal a Confirmed Nearer (they in all probability will), he’ll be a front-runner for the nearer’s job. However shoulder accidents are much more finicky than elbow accidents so I’ll be wanting to see how he bounces again.

Oaktown Blues: Do you suppose the A’s will preserve Darell Hernaiz within the bigs when Wilson comes off the IL?

Jason Martinez: Yep. Wilson has a fractured forearm so I’m not anticipating him again anytime quickly. They usually’ll have an additional bench spot in September. No purpose to prioritize at-bats for pending free brokers like Urias and Urshela so I’ll assume they’ll get a great take a look at Muncy, Hernaiz, and Gelof no matter whether or not Wilson comes again or not.

Ben from DC: Any predictions for Tucker’s contract?

Jon Becker: He’s having a bizarre season. Been actually good, after all, however the energy hasn’t been there to just about the extent it ought to be. A few of it’s the wind at Wrigley, a whole lot of it’s the finger that he injured on the slide a pair months in the past, which is impeding his capacity to grip the bat the best way he likes. Nonetheless an excellent excessive ground due to his base working talent and OBP however I feel $400M may very well be near his ceiling until the facility comes again down the stretch. Nonetheless a whole lot of time to mash and get a half a billion.

Jose Caba-where-o: Caballero’s enjoying time has plummeted in NY. Ought to we assume that is the norm going ahead?

Jason Martinez: He was introduced in as a utilityman who performs largely vs LHP. And that hasn’t modified. He’s good vs LHP and none of their lefty bats (apart from Bellinger and Wells) have been good in opposition to LHP this season.

Twins Pitching: Do you suppose Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, or each will pitch innings for the Twins this yr, or will they depart each within the minors and have them compete for jobs subsequent spring?

Jon Becker: I feel they’ll every get a handful of begins at minimal, yeah. They’re not really going to stay with the Ureña/Ohl bullpen video games 40% of the time for the remainder of the season, they simply needed to get Bradley and Abel acclimated to the org earlier than (in all probability) calling them up quickly.

Visitor: What does the Twins opening day lineup seem like subsequent season, with Keaschall again and different prime guys getting shut?

Jason Martinez: I’ll predict that “Walker Jenkins probably making the Opening Day roster” can be an fascinating subject but it surely gained’t occur. Identical with Emmanuel Rodriguez. I feel their present choices are adequate to permit the Twins to be affected person. Subsequently, that is what I’d guess if simply utilizing the present choices …

1. Luke Keaschall, 2B
2. Matt Wallner, RF
3. Byron Buxton, CF
4. Kody Clemens, 1B
5. Ryan Jeffers, C
6. Trevor Larnach, DH
7. Royce Lewis, 3B
8. Brooks Lee, SS
9. Alan Roden or James Outman, LF

   Good steadiness. Nobody is horrible. I additionally like Payton Eeles as a super-utility possibility. Add Jenkins to the OF by mid-season. Kaelen Culpepper may additionally make a push for the majors in 2026.

Visitor: What are the probabilities of River Ryan cracking the Dodgers rotation subsequent yr?

Jon Becker: Fairly low, at the least to start out subsequent yr. Tommy John rehab tends to be nearer to 18 months than 12 as of late, and 18 months would put him at late February. Even when his rehab goes nice and he’s full go subsequent yr, they may need to begin him off in a extra managed setting to watch his innings. No huge have to rush him with Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Ohtani all assured of spots, with Sasaki more likely to have one, Kershaw having an open invitation to return, and so forth.

Opifijikl: I used to be trying again at an article from spring about how Texas tried to rebalance its manufacturing by basically changing Lowe with Barger/Pederson and buying and selling some OBP for SLG. Clearly plans don’t at all times work out, however do you suppose the method/concept behind this type of rebalancing is smart?

Jason Martinez: Swapping Lowe for Pederson wasn’t actually a threat. Pederson crushes RHP. And he’s solely 33 so I doubt they anticipated this a lot of a drop-off in manufacturing.

I’m guessing they knew Burger was a threat with these BB/Ok numbers being as unhealthy as they had been in his first 3 seasons. But when he may nonetheless hit 25-30 HR hitting seventh or eighth in that lineup, they figured they might reside with it. However they bought the unhealthy model, at the least in 2025.

Gaddis about City: May Gaddis take the nearer position in Cleveland?

Jon Becker: In all probability not. Cade Smith is clearly the very best man in that bullpen (and he had an argument for being the very best arm within the bullpen even when Clase was nonetheless round), and he’s who Vogt has been utilizing as his nearer each time he’s obtainable. It’s no Clase-Smith-Gaddis-Herrin from final yr however Smith-Gaddis-Enright-Sabrowski has been a pleasant quartet.

Like sands by an hourglass: Has Sands washed away as min nearer? Who do you want for saves in that pen?

Jason Martinez: So far as potential nearer committees go — a number of good choices vs zero good choices — the Twins have the zero good choices one. Sands hasn’t been horrible however he’s gone backwards since his breakout in 2024. Ok/9 dropped from 10.7 to 7.5. I feel he may get some save possibilities as a result of there actually aren’t many choices however he’s additionally more likely to pitch earlier within the sport after they have a lead for a similar purpose. Not a whole lot of good choices.

Justin Topa has been unhealthy this season getting back from damage however I feel they’ve been ready to see the model they traded for. And hoping to get some worth out of him if he can decide up some saves. So I’d lean in the direction of Topa getting nearly all of possibilities.

MF Luder: Do you suppose Cristian Javier is assured a rotation spot?

Jon Becker: Undoubtedly not. 15 walks in 14 innings on rehab to this point, and it’s not like he’s ever been a command/management man however even half that charge wouldn’t be workable for a starter. I’d guess their hope is that he at the least exhibits sufficient to be a bullpen weapon within the playoffs.

Visitor: Varsho has sat in opposition to each lefties since returning, do you suppose he’s strictly platoon now or is it extra about easing him again in after a lot day off (yesterday was additionally day sport after evening sport along with being a lefy)?

Jason Martinez: They’re easing him again in. He was really significantly better vs LHP than RHP final season. But it surely’s additionally as a result of their different lefty OFs (Lukes and Loperfido) have been good vs LHP this season. Varsho’s protection is just too useful to take a seat him in probably the most significant video games, although, so I’d count on him to be on the market largely day-after-day by season’s finish/playoffs.

Colton: Realistically, what number of prospects get referred to as up after the rookie eligibility threshold passes later this month? 8-10? Much less? Extra?

Jon Becker: Relies upon who we’re contemplating a prospect right here, however off the prime 99 prospects, right here’s who I’m monitoring as robust potentialities:

Chandler
Painter
Lawlar
Eldridge
Wetherholt
Sproat
McLean
Tolle
Henriquez

That’s to not say all and even most of them will get the decision, however that’s 9 proper there, after which a bunch of others beneath 50 FV.

Fka oakland: With Perkins within the rotation, Newcombe getting the seventh/eighth yesterday, and Kelly blowing the tie within the ninth, is there an arm within the Sactown pen that you’d add?

Jason Martinez: Not likely. As we noticed with Eduarniel, a man can completely dominate within the minors however gained’t achieve success within the majors if his command isn’t at the least common. Ferguson appeared to show issues round in AAA earlier than getting referred to as again up yesterday. I’d think about he’s in a high-leverage position if he seems to be something like he did final season. Luis Morales is fascinating, too.

Visitor: who can be within the Paredes commerce market together with his ballpark sensitivities? 1B at Fenway? the park issue isn’t nice however the monster appears to serve his wants

Jon Becker: Boston actually is smart particularly if Bregman walks after opting out and 3B is open, too. Taking a look at xHR by park, the Jays could be an okay match too, if Bichette indicators elsewhere and Giménez is at brief with Clement sliding over to extra 2B.

Jb: Does additionally manoah make a begin for the jays this yr?

Jason Martinez: Yep. He’s making progress. Barring any main setbacks, he’ll be again. And even when he doesn’t begin, I feel he’ll nonetheless be on a starter’s routine (each 5-6 days, at the least 3 IP) out of the bullpen. There ought to be alternatives for some piggyback begins in September.

Phil: I assume you weren’t counting Campbell as a prospect call-up since he’s been up beforehand, however would you count on him to be up as properly?

Jon Becker: Cora alluded to him nonetheless having issues to work on, however he’s undoubtedly trending again upwards. I feel they’d love for him to take over 1B down the stretch.

Ariz Cl?: Any ideas on the following Arizona nearer?

Jason Martinez: It’s as unhealthy as a scenario can probably be, dropping Puk and Martinez (and Shelby Miller for a time earlier than he was traded). By default, I feel they’ll in all probability simply go along with Graveman and hope he can determine issues out. Possibly Ryan Thompson as soon as he’s wholesome. Andrew Hoffmann may get a glance however he’s going to be inconsistent. Wouldn’t shock me in the event that they tried to signal Ryan Pressly simply to assist get them by the season.

MF Luder: Beavers will presumably be a robust aspect platoon as soon as he’s referred to as up?

Jon Becker: That may very well be what he finally ends up being in the long run, but when I’m the Orioles I’m giving him loads of reps in opposition to LHP to see how properly he can deal with them. It’s not like they’re envisioning Jordyn Adams or Jeremiah Jackson on the following good Orioles crew, anyway.

Victoria: Is Sturdy Facet Platoon Belli going to decide into his final yr?

Jason Martinez: No approach he doesn’t decide out. Heading into his age-30 season. Nice numbers vs RHP and LHP. Above-average nook OF who may also play 1B or CF. Unsure he’ll get 5+ years however I can see him getting round 4 yr, $110MM.

Scarecrow: So, we’re previous the commerce deadline, however right here’s a wild hair commerce concept for the offseason:

Matasaka Yoshiba for Giancarlo Stanton.    The cash and obligation seem virtually an identical I feel.   Change of surroundings, lefty goes to Yankee Stadium to feast, Stanton strikes to Fenway.   DH for DH.   Possibly, even simply to clear some unhappiness.

Jon Becker: That is a kind of concepts that doesn’t make a lot sense for both crew. Stanton is best than Yoshida but additionally costlier, and what both crew would hope to perform in a commerce is releasing up DH for a rotation of gamers. All of the Yankees would accomplish right here is making their offense worse however cheaper, and all of the Pink Sox would accomplish is having an much more rigid DH spot than they do now and hopefully getting 30 homers out of it.

Opifijikl: I used to be trying on the transaction tracker and didn’t understand what number of little “MiLB participant traded for money” trades occurred. What do groups do with the money? Why not attempt to get a participant again? Do solely sure groups do these trades?

Jason Martinez: Unsure how a lot $ normally modifications palms, but it surely’s sufficient to leap the waiver line. If a crew desires a participant and thinks they’ll be claimed by a crew forward of them within the waiver order, they will simply supply $50K (only a guess) to amass the participant.

Visitor: The PPI date to keep up rookie eligibility is 8/14.  Let’s fake that Vegas odds makers (or simply me) set the road at 8/21 for the O’s to name up Basallo.  Are you taking the over or below?

Jon Becker: I’m guessing if he’s up in any respect it’ll be as one of many couple September call-ups. Wouldn’t shock me to see him not up in any respect this yr, although, with a leg up a spot subsequent yr.

Visitor: Is it secure to imagine BOS and CLE wouldn’t have traded Duran or Kwan for a package deal centered round De Vries?

Jason Martinez: I assume they wouldn’t have given up De Vries for two+ years of Kwan. Presumably for 3+ years of Duran, however possibly the Padres hadn’t included him in commerce talks previous to the Pink Sox saying Duran was staying put.

4+ years of Miller might be why they determined to incorporate De Vries, though I feel 4 years of a pitcher is the same as 2-3 years of a place participant because of the excessive probability of an elbow damage. Tremendous dangerous commerce.

Visitor: Hey guys! Questioning who’re some gamers you could possibly see getting DFAed or positioned on revocable waivers in lieu of different groups selecting them up for a ultimate playoff push (and wage aid for the offsetting crew)??

Jon Becker: Loads of leases on promoting groups I used to be shocked to see stick round, specifically Pham, Heaney, and Josh Bell, so I’d count on them to be on waivers (although we could by no means hear about it) together with names like DeJong, Farmer, and Gio Urshela. However as with yearly I’m most curious to see if the Angels waive their leases assuming they preserve dropping, as a result of they’ve bought quite a bit: Jansen, Tyler Anderson, Chafin, Luis García, Moncada, Hendricks, Rengifo.

Rick: Suppose Locklear may be long-term 1B for AZ?

Jason Martinez: It’s doable however nonetheless approach too early. I feel Dbacks simply have to determine whether or not he’s going to be a part of the 2026 crew and they’re going to have two good months to see him play day-after-day. My guess is that they’l in all probability go into 2026 with Locklear and Pavin Smith penciled in at 1B/DH.

Tom M: How Can we get a 2026 estimate payroll roll ahead early with only a primary arbitration calc? I need to see how unhealthy the Pirates payroll seems to be as we glance to the offseason

Jon Becker: I’ve needed to look into the feasibility of this for some time, however sadly there’s no such factor as a primary arbitration calculation as a result of there’s a bunch of variables there. So we simply wait till the MLBTradeRumors estimates come out because the of us there are good sufficient to allow us to use theirs. We’ll be in 2026 mode per week or so after the World Collection.

gonyr: What does the longer term maintain for Lawrence Butler? Looks as if an enormous step again from final yr.

Jason Martinez: Took a step backwards however not sufficient to be overly involved. The principle distinction is that he was superb vs LHP as a rookie and he has been very unhealthy this season. So, looking forward to 2026, I feel they simply have to plan on him having a platoon companion till he figures issues out and proves that he’s again to the 2024 model vs LHP.

RAGBRAI: Mansee appears to be an on a regular basis starter now. Does this maintain up for subsequent yr?

Jon Becker: In all probability, since his being a lefty bodes properly for him. Stowers could have one spot after which it’s Marsee, Hill, Myers, Hernandez, Mesa, and Wiemer within the combine for the 2 others plus bench spots, as of proper now.

jj: how lengthy does walker buehler keep within the rotation, and do you count on Early, Sandlin or Tolle to make their debuts this yr in a significant approach?

Jason Martinez: Feels like Sandlin is the almost definitely candidate to get a September audition for the post-season bullpen. I wouldn’t rule out Tolle or Early, both. If they will discover another energy arm to assist get the ball to Aroldis, they’re in good condition for October.

Unsure on Buehler. They don’t have a whole lot of SP depth so best-case is he improves and may be helpful within the playoffs (much like 2025 with the Dodgers). Not less than proper now with a 4-game cushion over any non-playoff groups, they’ve a while to permit for that.

Browngreen: Are you involved in any respect about Decide’s manufacturing down the stretch?  Do you suppose his damage will have an effect on his hitting?

Jon Becker: Not significantly involved, it didn’t sound prefer it was affecting him a lot in any respect when hitting earlier than, and I’m not going to overreact to some video games the place it nonetheless seemed like he was engaged on getting his timing again quite than swinging damage. Clearly, they want him to hit, however in addition they want him to get again to RF ASAP so Stanton isn’t rotting on the bench.

Ryan O’Hearn: Why commerce for me after which sit me?

Jason Martinez: Sheets has to start out each from time to time for him to nonetheless be an efficient bat off the bench. That’s his predominant job now. So the primary break day made sense. Not a lot the following day until they actually felt that Machado wanted to DH so he may get a break day his ft. Hopefully, he’s in there in opposition to each RHP any further. Having O’Hearn and Sheets on the bench is type of pointless as a result of the one hitter that will get pinch-hit for is Elias Diaz. And possibly Fermin in an enormous spot. However you don’t have 3 catchers on the roster so you may solely pinch-hit as soon as.

pumpsie: On the crew depth chart tab, within the 2025 Workforce Rankings part, may we get a defence field beneath hitting, sp and rp? There’s a little bit of white house there! Possibly ooa, possibly six packing containers to line up with the opposite sections, 1b, 2b, 3b, ss, c and of? Every time I need to know ‘why is that this crew nice/horrible’, that’s the first place I look. Nice starters! They hit! Worst rp period! Completely unbelievable useful resource, guys.

Jason Martinez: I like that concept. Unsure if it’s a simple add however I can ask about it. Thanks!

Dan P: Jason I’d similar to you to know that I completely adore RR and take into account it a useful device I exploit practically every day, thanks a lot.

Jason Martinez: Thank Dan! Admire that.

Jason Martinez: That can do it for right this moment. Thanks for becoming a member of us! We’ll be again subsequent week.