Jose Altuve has been doing the identical factor for a very long time now. The 35-year-old Astro is closing in on 250 profession residence runs although he’s by no means possessed the look, and even the swing, of a standard slugger. Altuve has by no means hit the ball arduous and has all the time chased a bit greater than you’d like, however he’s wonderful at making contact, which helps him keep away from strikeouts, and he’s wonderful at pulling the ball within the air, which helps him benefit from that contact. Altuve has ridden these pulled fly balls to a profession 114 SLG+ and 101 ISO+. If we begin in 2015, the start of the Statcast period and the yr he actually began to deal with lifting and pulling, these numbers are 119 and 113. This yr, nevertheless, for the primary time, I’m genuinely beginning to surprise how Altuve continues to be doing it.
Altuve is operating a mean exit velocity of simply 85 mph. Right here’s what that appears like within the context of his profession. It’s the bottom mark he’s ever put up by practically a full mile per hour, and it’s 1.5 mph off the typical he put up simply final yr:
These numbers look much more stark once we put them within the context of the remainder of the league. Altuve is operating the second-lowest common exit velocity amongst all certified batters. Consider any slap-happy contact hitter – Luis Arraez, Jacob Wilson, Sal Frelick, Geraldo Perdomo – Altuve has a decrease common exit velocity than all of them. However like clockwork, Altuve continues to be operating a 120 wRC+ and batting .280. With 19 residence runs, he’s on tempo for 27, the very best mark he’s put up since 2022. Altuve continues to be lifting and pulling, lifting and pulling, making contact, avoiding strikeouts, rinse and repeat, though his contact high quality has dropped to about as little as you’ll be able to probably think about.
An important context right here is Altuve’s Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity. At 101.5 mph, it’s really greater than the 100 mph he put up final season, nevertheless it’s nonetheless the third lowest of his profession. Amongst certified gamers, it places him in simply the twelfth percentile. When a participant has a decrease common exit velocity however an analogous Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity, it signifies that their top-end energy hasn’t modified; they’re simply mishitting the ball extra usually, buying and selling medium contact for weak contact. The numbers bear that out. On balls that aren’t hard-hit, Altuve’s common exit velocity is 78.1 mph, the bottom mark of his profession since 2015. Sports activities Information Options additionally tracks soft-hit fee, and Altuve’s is 20.6%, the very best since his partial rookie season in 2011. Right here’s the easiest way I can present this to you. The graph beneath exhibits the proportion of balls in play that depart Altuve’s bat beneath 80 mph. Till this season, he had by no means reached 30%; he’d solely surpassed 28.5% as soon as. He’s now at 33.5%:
The superior bat monitoring numbers see the identical factor. Altuve’s squared-up fee is down from final season. His common bat velocity is holding regular, nevertheless it’s barely sooner for those who solely take a look at pitches over the guts of the plate, as a result of he’s assembly the ball two full inches additional out in entrance than he did final yr (and bat velocity will increase all through the swing). In different phrases, Altuve appears to be getting began earlier so as to meet the ball even additional out in entrance to maximise his lift-and-pull sport. At 56.3%, Altuve is operating the very best pull fee of his complete profession, and he ranks second amongst all certified gamers. He’s tied with Nolan Arenado, one other mid-30s lifter-puller, for the very best popup fee amongst certified gamers.
Over the course of his complete profession, Altuve’s lopsided spray charts have been artworks. He’s able to spraying the ball everywhere in the subject, however he solely hits it arduous sufficient to do harm to the pull facet. While you simply take a look at the bottom hits, the asymmetry is jarring, and this season’s chart is shaping as much as be a pointillist masterpiece. He’s hit only one reverse subject residence run and hasn’t managed to blast a base hit over the suitable fielder’s head as soon as. It’s a superb use of adverse house:
I’ve been driving at a well-known narrative right here. It’s the story of a participant who’s compensating for a slowing bat. Altuve continues to be hitting properly and continues to be able to hitting the ball as arduous as he did earlier than, however he has to cheat an increasing number of to take action. He’s moved again within the field a bit. He’s getting began earlier so he can meet the ball additional out in entrance, which has triggered one of many highest whiff charges of his profession and extra mishits. It nonetheless works as a result of Altuve nonetheless makes loads of contact and is superb at optimizing it.
To be clear, I don’t know whether or not that’s what’s really occurring. Altuve may very well be compensating for some slight damage, or he might have simply determined that that is how he needs his swing to look now. He’s additionally revamped his batting stance, beginning much more open this yr than he has previously. However an older participant compensating for a slower swing actually seems like the best reply. Altuve continues to be making it work. He now not seems just like the man who ran a mixed 144 wRC+ from 2016 to 2023, however he’s nonetheless a productive hitter on a contending group. I’d like to be fallacious. Altuve isn’t a typical participant for thus many causes, and there’s little he might do that might shock me. He’s nonetheless only one season faraway from a 154 wRC+. But when that is what the start of the tip seems like, then he’s beginning his decline as gently as doable.