Jo Adell Stays a Work in Progress — However He’s Making Progress

In the event you had been solely going by uncooked stat strains, the top of April would have been an comprehensible time to surrender on Jo Adell. After struggling mightily in components of 4 seasons with the Angels in addition to the primary half of 2024, he confirmed some optimistic beneficial properties within the second half earlier than being shut down as a result of an indirect pressure in early September. He completed in replacement-level territory, with a 90 wRC+ and 0.1 WAR, then was dreadful firstly of this season, protruding even amongst one of many majors’ worst offenses. These days, although, Adell has come round in promising vogue, providing hope that he is usually a productive large leaguer in any case, if not the star so many as soon as believed he may very well be.

Initially, I supposed to make use of the 26-year-old Adell to steer off the 2025 model of an article I wrote final yr, protecting gamers who had improved probably the most after dismal begins — even when their general numbers had been camouflaged by their early struggles and nonetheless got here off as slightly peculiar. Utilizing Could 1 as a cutoff, with a minimal of 80 plate appearances on both facet, I discovered that Adell had improved probably the most from the primary leg of the season to the second. Right here’s the desk, with the stats up to date via Sunday:

Adell hit simply .190/.236/.310 with two house runs in March and April whereas hanging out 27% of the time, however from the beginning of Could via Sunday, he hit .255/.344/.582 with 11 homers whereas trimming that strikeout charge to 23.2%. He was about half a win beneath alternative degree earlier than Could 1, and has been a couple of full win above since.

I’ll dig into the numbers beneath, however first, a recap. A 2017 first-round pick of a Louisville highschool, Adell cracked our Prime 100 Prospects record in every of the subsequent three seasons, rating as excessive as no. 4 in 2020, as a 65-FV prospect, and he was equally regarded by different retailers because of his mixture of plus-plus uncooked energy and plus pace. However since debuting early within the 2020 season, he has usually struggled to make good contact, or any contact in any respect for that matter, together with his lack of refinement limiting his alternative to indicate off the instruments that so tantalized expertise evaluators. In a complete of 178 main league video games from 2020–23, he hit simply .214/.259/.366 with 18 homers in 619 plate appearances en path to a grim 70 wRC+. After showing in 88 video games with the Angels however managing only a 77 wRC+ and -0.2 WAR in 2022, he performed solely 17 video games within the majors in ’23 whereas returning to Triple-A Salt Lake for the fourth yr out of 5. As I joked early final yr, when it regarded like he could be breaking out — which proved to not be the case, alas — if he’d spent only a bit extra time in my hometown, my mother and father would have been obligated to ask him over for dinner.

Certainly, opposite to the title of that check-in (“Jo Adell Is Lastly Placing It Collectively”), Adell didn’t put it collectively, however as a result of he was out of minor league choices and the Angels had been out of higher concepts, he remained within the lineup. He principally had one wonderful month within the first half of the season (March/April, 171 wRC+), one within the second half (August, 128 wRC+), and an honest one within the center (July, 104 wRC+), however the remaining was fairly cringeworthy. Nonetheless, when damaged down by halves, one may see some progress:

Adell’s strikeout and stroll charges each improved, however his contact was a blended bag. His anticipated batting common jumped from .217 to .238 within the second half, whereas his anticipated slugging proportion fell from .432 to .392, to the purpose that the 2 developments almost cancelled one another out; his xwOBA barely inched upward, from .309 to .318.

There was extra occurring throughout that second half than these stat strains counsel. On the finish of July, after experimenting with hitting coaches Johnny Washington and Tim Laker first in spring coaching after which extra just lately in pregame work, Adell ditched a leg kick that he had used for his complete profession. “Adell had all the time introduced his entrance foot about 12 inches off the bottom as he ready to swing, utilizing that set off mechanism on all pitches,” wrote the Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher. “On Tuesday [July 30], although, Adell merely lifted his heel, preserving his toe on the bottom.”

Right here’s a house run Adell hit off the Tigers’ Shelby Miller on June 30, 2024, with the kick nonetheless in place:

And right here’s the one he hit off the Rockies’ Jake Chicken on July 30, in his first sport with out the kick:

Right here’s one other one with no kick from August 31, off the Mariners’ Bryan Woo:

I offered that final one to assist illustrate how Adell steadily opened up his stance. We don’t have granular game-by-game information, however from Opening Day via the top of June, Adell’s stance was closed by two or three levels in response to Statcast’s month-to-month averages. In July, nevertheless, his stance was open by a median of three levels; that elevated to 10 levels in August, and in his 5 September video games (throughout which he went 1-for-14 earlier than getting injured), he was open by 11 levels.

Throughout spring coaching, Adell experimented with bringing again his leg kick, believing he may use it, no less than on a situational foundation, to make the most of his pure athleticism. He hit a grand slam off the Dodgers’ Dustin Could utilizing the leg kick on February 28, however so far as I can inform, he didn’t deliver his leg chill into regular-season video games till Could 26, by which level he’d already turned the nook after his horrible opening stretch. From that time he went on a binge, hitting .328/.409/.724 with seven house runs from Could 26 via June 15 in opposition to the Yankees, Guardians, Purple Sox, Mariners, A’s, and Orioles. Variants of the kick, which to those eyes seem much less pronounced than final yr, present up in all 4 homers he hit in opposition to the Mariners and A’s from June 7–11:

Adell’s stance was open by a median of 12 levels in March and April, however he’s again to 10 levels since. His swing path tilt has been constant at 32 levels from month to month, one lower than final yr. Likewise, his common assault angle — the vertical angle at which his bat is touring on the level of impression, has remained constant at eight levels, the place it was usually at 5 levels final yr, via good months and dangerous. It’s an uppercut, however hardly an excessive one.

Whatever the angles, the one fixed is Adell swings onerous. His 77.3-mph common bat pace ranks fourth amongst qualifiers, behind solely Oneil Cruz, Junior Caminero, and Jordan Walker, whereas his quick swing charge of 69.7% ranks fifth. His 26.8% squared-up charge is method down within the seventh percentile, however his 14.3% blast charge is up within the 81st.

Lengthy story brief, Adell is hitting the ball tougher than final yr, and due to that improved strikeout charge, he’s making contact extra typically:

When he does join, Adell manages to seek out the barrel with some frequency; final yr’s charge positioned within the 79th percentile, this yr’s within the 86th. Past that, his anticipated stats have improved dramatically from yr to yr, by 49 factors of batting common and 130 factors of slugging proportion, however to date, his precise numbers have improved by lower than half these margins. Nonetheless, that’s progress. His contact really wasn’t that dangerous in March and April; he was 62 factors wanting his xBA and 116 factors wanting his xSLG throughout what in any other case regarded like a depressing month. Even since Could 1, he hasn’t gotten the outcomes his high quality of contact suggests. However between that and his improved strikeout and stroll charges, he’s in uncharted territory, xwOBA-wise:

It’s significantly encouraging to contemplate what Adell has accomplished since final July 30, when he first ditched the leg kick; throughout that span of 411 plate appearances, he’s hit .230/.309/.439 with 20 homers, a 12.5% barrel charge, 25.3% strikeout charge, and a 111 wRC+. That’s not star-caliber, however it’s definitely playable for a middle fielder (extra on that topic beneath) regardless of his struggles final September and early this yr.

What does concern me is Adell’s pitch splits. This yr, he’s completely feasted on sliders, and to a lesser extent sinkers, which collectively account for about one-third of his pitches confronted:

Adell was 4 runs above common in opposition to sliders final yr and is already eight above common in opposition to them this yr, which places him in a digital tie with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jacob Wilson for the most important league lead. He’s been about common in opposition to sinkers, however in opposition to four-seamers, he’s nonetheless struggling terribly. It’s important to return to 2021 to discover a season through which he managed a batting common above .181 or a slugging proportion above .375 in opposition to four-seamers; he hit .261 and slugged .500 in opposition to them in 50 PA that yr. He was eight runs beneath common in opposition to four-seamers final yr, and is 2 beneath common this yr, although no less than his anticipated numbers in opposition to them are good, and he has extra areas within the strike zone the place he’s not a complete pushover:

That mentioned, if we once more cut up Adell’s season utilizing Could 1 because the dividing line, a development towards enchancment turns into clear:

In desk kind:

That comparability is evening and day, even when he’s been falling wanting his anticipated numbers over each stretches. Adell nonetheless has some main holes in his swing, however he is usually a productive main leaguer if he continues to deal with the warmth as he has over this current stretch.

As for Adell’s protection, final yr he proved to be a succesful proper fielder, with 6 DRS and -2 FRV in 1,035 2/3 innings. With the Angels making the long-overdue resolution to shift Mike Trout to proper, Adell has been pushed to heart, the place he performed simply 34 innings final yr and simply 122 in his earlier main league profession. The small-sample information counsel he’s stretched: In 42 video games (41 begins) totaling 355 1/3 innings, he has -6 DRS and -4 FRV, in comparison with -1 DRS and 0 FRV in 155 innings in proper throughout Trout’s absence as a result of a bone bruise in his left knee. It most likely hasn’t helped that his foremost proper subject neighbors Trout (-3 DRS and -2 FRV in 185 innings) and Jorge Soler (-2 DRS and -3 FRV in 217 innings) — the latter of whom has kind of taken over the place whereas Trout has been restricted to DH obligation since his return on Could 30 — have been subpar. Soler has had a number of seasons with double-digit unfavorable runs by one metric or one other in proper, together with -10 DRS and -7 FRV in simply 326 innings there final yr. That’s price preserving in thoughts when contemplating Adell’s metrics in heart.

Once I wrote about Adell on Could 13 of final yr, I used to be considerably optimistic he’d turned a nook, although I did conclude that he stays a piece in progress. I’ll say the identical factor this yr, albeit in a extra measured tone. He’s giving off some encouraging indicators, and one can’t fault the Angels’ persistence with him or his willingness to experiment. I don’t suppose Adell will ever attain the ceiling that expertise evaluators anticipated from him, however I do suppose he is usually a productive main leaguer, and after the entire struggles we’ve seen from him, that counts for one thing.