Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/12/25

Dan Szymborski: Of all of the writers how cowl baseball, Dan is one among them!

RockiesFanGirl: Dan, you might have a greater sense of this than most, however this can be a critical query: What could be completed to repair the Colorado Rockies?

Dan Szymborski: I actually assume you both want new possession or a change in strategy from the present one to offer the entrance workplace the assets they should modernize the entrance workplace fully.

Dan Szymborski: There *are* individuals within the group who’re attempting to modernize the group, however additionally they want assist and leeway.

Outdated MLB: Along with your forty seventh birthday arising, who do you assume amongst present main leaguers has the very best probability to nonetheless be within the MLB at age 47? I assume Wealthy Hill has an out of doors shot however he largely seems cooked, and I don’t assume Verlander or Carlos Santana are more likely to final that lengthy, so is it truly somebody younger with projectable long run expertise like Soto? The plate self-discipline and energy ought to nonetheless be in full swing a decade from now, however 20 years is a loopy period of time to challenge

Dan Szymborski: I believe a reliever is almost certainly, possibly somebody like Kirby Yates who doesn’t blow away batters anyway

Dan Szymborski: Wade Miley might be Jamie Moyer (although nto a reliever)

Dan Szymborski: I don’t assume he needs to, but it surely *may* be Clayton Kershaw, becasue if he was occupied with it, he may most likely simply part-time it with the Dodgers, signing each July, and so they’d most likely go together with it

J: You’ll be able to’t put “The ultimate chat for Dan” as the beginning of the chat byline

Dan Szymborski: ANY chat could be the ultimate chat!

Dan Szymborski: Even when younger. And the actuarial desk solely will get worse.

Dan Szymborski: I ought to inform Meg and David that if I do occur to die, I’d like them to place up one final SzymChat that’s solely to make jokes about my demise

Dan Szymborski: I wish to exit in a flurry of obnoxiousness

Visitor: Goldschmidt final 12 months 88 wRC+ vs RHP and this 12 months 84. ought to he and Rice simply be in a pure platoon?

Dan Szymborski: Goldschmidt PROBABLY ought to, but it surely’s troublesome to simply inform the veteran you signed a number of months in the past who could also be a HoFer (he’s fifteenth in JaffeJAWS) that they’re going to be the small half of a platoon. And the Yankees are solely beginning Rice like half the time in opposition to lefties anyway and I hate to doom a younger participant to by no means get an opportunity to enhance in opposition to same-handers

DFOX9139: What sort of return do you anticipate to Braves to get for Sale?

Dan Szymborski: In the event that they did commerce it, they must get fairly a very good return. The membership choice is very engaging. I’m unsure the Braves are literally “there” but although

Patrons or Cellars: True/False: o’s victory over the league-leading Tigers yesterday proves they need to be patrons on the deadline

Dan Szymborski: False. No recreation can show something a couple of season (or no less than solely extraordinarily not often) so it’s normally false

Dan Szymborski: I imply, a complete group can catch Ebola throughout a recreation for instance, which actually would have an enormous impact o nthe season

Cromulent: Present worst contract per Zips? Prime 3?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t tallied it, however Bogaerts is probably going up there. Regrettably Trout due to his well being. And with Vladito not sustaining his 2025 ranges, he’s most likely up there simply because the numbers are so massive and the contract a lot to go

Of the Grom: Has zips modified its outlook on the variety of innings for deGrom, both this 12 months and even subsequent?

Dan Szymborski: Yup, it’s moved up significantly!

12 to six: the pirates should not buying and selling skenes.

can’t see it until he and his reps principally pull an nfl/nba type “get me the hell out of right here or i’m going to canine it and make life depressing for you” transfer, and that i don’t see that taking place.

however IF THEY DID, would Dashing, Ferris, De Paula, Zazueta, and Swan get them there?

Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure that’s even sufficient.

Wind Park Components: Do park elements adequately account for wind in locations like Wrigley or Citi the place it incessantly makes the distinction on batted ball outcomes? Given how a lot the winds can change all year long I’d think about simply taking a operating 3-year common would masks the traits when going month by month would possibly give a extra correct image of what’s actually occurring. Wouldn’t each the Cubs and the Mets be occupied with, say, a fly-ball lefty reliever and be occupied with how their residence parks will play up or down HR/FB% over the homestretch?

Dan Szymborski: In all probability not, however resulting from pattern measurement, youi’re not likely going to get to.

Dan Szymborski: The noise in park elements is huge, in order that these micro-samples are going to have a lot noise that you just’ll battle to search out the sign

Mets massive splash: Am I loopy for considering no less than one of many Mets’ present beginning pitchers will get traded by the commerce deadline? There’s such a glut with reinforcements on the best way {that a} contender-contender swap of positions of want feels prefer it makes a ton of sense; possibly even somebody like Megill is included in a bigger package deal for a long run piece

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, I can’t see them buying and selling a pitcher

Choose: It simply retains going

Sporter’s 5 Horses: Per Bowden, the Nats need to pair one other ace by way of commerce or offseason acq with Gore on the high of the rotation. I suppose this bodes effectively for an try at a critical run at within the subsequent 2+ years, but when they flip their final remaining good prospects for an additional ace then I’ve a tough time seeing their rebuild yield greater than a excessive 70s / low 80s win group. Honest evaluation?

Dan Szymborski: I imply, they do have many of the offensive core on the group now that they’ll construct round

Dan Szymborski: The chance so as to add HIGH high quality pitching is actually exhausting to disregard although

Dan Szymborski: I believe my emotions are going to be very specific-trade

Ben: How scorching is Jerry Dipoto’s seat?

Dan Szymborski: Mildly?

Doug: What’s your tackle Roberts leaving Suaer in to die after which bringing ready participant within the sixth? Looks like a joke and place participant pitching guidelines want one other replace.

Dan Szymborski: Sauer positively took one for the group!

Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure how you’d make non-preposterous guidelines that pressure you to take away a pitcher

Dan Szymborski: Kiké has a 2.08 ERA lol

Dan Szymborski: I don’t thoughts place gamers pitching

Dan Szymborski: I believe if something, the very best answer could be a long-term cultural change in direction of groups resigning a recreation

Dan Szymborski: quite than forfeit, which has an enormous detrimental connotation

Dan Szymborski: Like in chess, they don’t end off the misplaced positions

Dan Szymborski: However that comes with an actual value in baseball, in concessions, pissing off followers, and many others.

Dan Szymborski: In different phrases, I’m unsure the good thing about upsetting the established order is definitely worth the prices of doing so

Altamira: Does any Baltimore impending free agent web a 2026 contributor in commerce?

Dan Szymborski: I believe they’ll commerce O’Hearn

Visitor: The Orioles have appeared extra alive these days, but it surely’s principally due to their pitching placing up a 2.97 ERA over the past 17 video games, whereas the place gamers have been common.  I’m considering that is truly extra regarding than their early pitching struggles, as a result of if their hitters are extra common than all-star then issues don’t look good for future years.  What do you assume?

Dan Szymborski: It’s actually a priority that the offense was solely OK. Actually, I believe the mathematics is simply too poor for the Orioles

Dan Szymborski: They should go completely INSANE, and even when the offense bounces again, I dont’ assume the pitching can do this

peter: Does Homer Bailey get issues again on observe this 12 months and take a leap ahead?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, did one thing very bizarre occurs? Did the White Sox signal him for a comeback or one thing?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t see something, so confusion is reigning

DJ Tofu: Examine three fastball pitches, one thrown at 95 mph and the opposite two at 92 mph and 98 mph. All the pieces else are similar, with league common the whole lot (H/VAA, arm angle, and many others.).
– What are the variations between the time it will take to reach on the plate? (unsure how you can account for spin and aerodynamics)
– For a mean hitter, if he swings the bat in order that the ball would depart the bat immediately at 100mph EV and 20 diploma launch angle for the 95 mph one, the place would the bat meet the opposite two pitches, and what could be the outcomes (EV, LA, and horizontal exit angle)?

Dan Szymborski: I might recommend submitting this for a mailbag!

Dan Szymborski: As a result of there’s no manner I can reply this in 45 seconds

Dan Szymborski: You want somebody an important deal extra clever than me

Roberto Beers: A person, a Dan, a chat, are the giants going to win ninety video games, emagyteninniwotgniogstnaigehteratahcanadanama

drplantwrench: angels are tied for 2nd place within the AL West,1 recreation below .500, 2.5 video games out of WC3, lacking two massive bullpen items and two 3Bs.  this 12 months’s a hit *to this point* proper?  have they got any probability to sneak into the playoffs with the AL West being a large number?

Dan Szymborski: I assume there’s an opportunity, however this can be a phenomenally underwhelming group

Houzer: Ought to the Tigers provide Skubal a document setting extension now .. and if he rejects it, commerce him within the offseason? And would the Orioles think about Skubal for Adley? Or would the Dodgers do Dashing for him?

Dan Szymborski: They need to most likely do the very first thing. The second is…difficult and I believe it relies upon what the roster seems like.

Dan Szymborski: I might completely bounce on a Skubal/Adley commerce if I’m the Orioles

Dan Szymborski: Proper now, one has to contemplate 2.5 years of Adley might be nto as priceless as 1.5 years of Skubal

Dan Szymborski: Now, the issue is I’m unsure why the Tigers would do that.

Dan Szymborski: They gotten extra WAR from their catchers this 12 months than the Orioles. And so they did LAST YEAR too

Houzer: What does a package deal of Efflin and Bautista value the Tigers in a commerce?

Dan Szymborski: A again finish high 100 and some dudes

Nathan: Are you coaching to your booms/busts victory lap?

Dan Szymborski: No, as a result of this train will undoubtedly have many failures as effectively, by its very nature

Dan Szymborski: And I actually do attempt to keep away from hubris

Dan Szymborski: Like, I would like individuals to know my work has worth, however I all the time attempt to mix within the failures with the successes

Oaktown Blues: I believe I’d’ve discovered a small ZiPS glitch. In ZiPS Replace, 34 12 months previous backup catcher Austin Wynns is projected for a 123 wRC+. He’s had some tiny pattern success in 2024 and 2025, however not sufficient to clarify the projection, I believe. Am I unsuitable?

Dan Szymborski: That appears bizarre.

Dan Szymborski: oh, proper, the UPDATE

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS solely tasks him as a 93 wRC+ man going ahead

Dan Szymborski: however with ZiPS at solely 107 extra PA and the DC at a mere 69, you’ll be able to mix virtually something with 189 in 48 PA and get an enormous quantity

Buzz Aldrin Bavasi: How frightened is Zips about Roki going ahead?

Dan Szymborski: reasonably

Massive Fan: Glad early birthday!  47 is my favourite prime quantity – it’s gonna be wonderful.

Dan Szymborski: I can’t think about 47 goes to be wonderful

Oaktown Blues: Can also you remind me what ZiPS Replace represents? Is it a re-projection of 2025, however with the knowledge ZiPS has discovered throughout 2025 integrated? Is it full-gat ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS replace is the remainder of season projection (which is replace) plus no matter’s within the bucket already

Dan Szymborski: FanGraphs can’t robotically do the full-fat, finest model of ZiPS of sensible causes

Dan Szymborski: Even with a brand new PC construct, the quickest I can challenge a full season is about 18 hours of computing time over two PCs

Dan Szymborski: There’s numerous linear algebra!

Matt: Hey Dan was does Zips say Choose’s ninetieth percentile final result seems like this season based mostly on his begin?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually have percentiles arrange that manner IN season

Brent: Whenever you run your preliminary full projections earlier than the season begins, what sort of processing energy does that take? Are you operating it regionally or do you get entry to an NSA tremendous laptop?

Dan Szymborski: Operating it regionally. I batch run the hitters and the pitchers individually on two PCs.

Dan Szymborski: The slower one, my media server which makes use of an i7-8700K is now out of that blend although, and now the 5900X is the slower of the PC and may do the pitchers in about 18 hours. My 9950x3D can do the hitters in about 11 hours.

James: Is Seattle cooked already?

Dan Szymborski: Cooked, no, however the onions are softening up

Justin: What all do you assume goes into the constant benefit that you’ve got by taking part in residence video games?   Do you assume we’ll ever see issues like sending possible pitchers to the subsequent metropolis a number of days early to get them “Settled in”?

Dan Szymborski: Consolation and familiarity is necessary. The small final bat benefit. The very slight favoritism from umpires

Dan Szymborski: it doesn’t add as much as an enormous quantity, but it surely’s SOMETHING

Dan Szymborski: I don’t assume settling in would have the worth in that manner

Visitor: who says they’ll’t be preposterous? ; p

Dan Szymborski: True

Dan Szymborski: The zombie runners are fairly preposterous

Houzer: its time for ABS full time. Go away the umps on the market to make base-running calls, however get ABS to calls ball and strikes. One massive motive is so we will finish all this pitch framing pageantry

Dan Szymborski: I’m all for this

Dan Szymborski: Now, one can argue it’s not good to take away a skillset, however because it’s a skillset in principally promoting one thing to a fallible rule enforcer, I don’t assume it must be a factor

Visitor: Will Chris Sale and/or Jacob DeGrom be the large names on the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: CHris Sale is probably going. I don’t assume deGrom is

Justin: Does anyone come to thoughts when i say “who’re some comparatively unknown relievers who strike you as guys who can be “promoted” from center reduction into setup roles down the stretch resulting from seeming like suddenly-outstanding pitchers”?

Dan Szymborski: Gabe Speier? Although one may say he’s already getting increased leverage innings

Dan Szymborski: Bennett Sousa?

Justin: Do you assume the Orioles will promote sufficient items that Basallo will get a cup of espresso this 12 months?  In some methods, his AAA efficiency is sort of extra spectacular than Anthony’s, and he’s youthful.

Dan Szymborski: I believe ti’s very POSSIBLE

Jim Basketballhoop: Is the forfeit/concession answer only a mercy rule?

Dan Szymborski: Quitting is all on the way you promote it

Jeremy: Slightly than giving groups the chance to resigning a recreation, a la chess, ought to MLB have a mercy rule, a la Little League?

Dan Szymborski: Like no one berates soccer groups that take knees when the opponent can not meaningfully cease the clock

Man Younger: It is a bit hair-brained, however theoretically:

Man Younger: It is a bit hair-brained, however theoretically: Kyle Tucker and Colin Rea for Dylan Stop and Michael King. Who says no?

Dan Szymborski: Each?

Dan Szymborski: I believe it’s a kind of issues the place the achieve from their package deal is arguably not definitely worth the danger

Dan Szymborski: As a result of as soon as each groups execute the commerce, then REPEATING the commerce the opposite manner round additionally seems like a extremely good commerce at that time

Justin: Is there any trait that you just’ve discovered that tends to permit gamers to persistently outplay their projections and/or “peripheral stats”?  i suppose that for those who did discover such a factor, most methods would merely begin to bake that factor in to the mannequin, proper?  I’ll keep in mind studying one thing about pitchers out-pitching their peripherals as soon as their GB charge will get round 60% however i might be unsuitable.

Dan Szymborski: A statistical one? Probably not; I spend numerous time looking for non-randomized errors within the projections.

Dan Szymborski: Guys who’re injured might be one among them, however I believe that’s all the time going to be an issue predicting these guys it doesn’t matter what you do

Visitor: unsure why [team] would do that? effectively, have in mind group I’m imagining the group I’m fan of constructing this take care of may be very, very dumb

Dan Szymborski: One disappointing factor is that dumb groups have gotten so sensible relative to dumb groups 25 years in the past

Dan Szymborski: I might name the White Sox in 2025 and common entrance workplace in 1995

oklahoma courageous: the braves received’t commerce Sale as a result of they received’t punt subsequent 12 months imo

Dan Szymborski: That’s a really actual chance

Dan Szymborski: BUT

Dan Szymborski: Double A is *not* normally queasy about an unpopular commerce he sees a profit from

Alex: Who will the Phillies commerce for to enhance their outfield? I do know they want bullpen/reliever assist however additionally they want run assist. CF & LF are black holes 80% of the time

Dan Szymborski: No one

Visitor: Has ZIPS’ opinion of Matt Shaw improved publish 2nd name up?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not since ZiPS alreayd favored him

George: If Abrams is destined to be moved off the filth, ought to the Nats be seeking to transfer one or a number of of the Lile, Hassell, Name, and Younger group on the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: As all the time, it is determined by the precise provides and what the penannt race seems like in the mean time

tomorrow: Postseason begins tomorrow, who’s the favourite to win the WS?

Dan Szymborski: Tigers

David: How does ZiPS up to date projection take care of pitchers recovering from accidents? Does it matter? Glasnow, Darvish, King and many others, are all recovering from unclear analysis, are they anticipated to return again from pre-injury kind or is there extra variance?

Dan Szymborski: Poorly

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS can broadly perceive accidents in a basic sense

Dan Szymborski: however the actual specifics are actually exhausting for a mannequin to understand

Pkpkpkpk: Can we get some guide recs? Any type of guide. I really feel like I learn in one among these that you just learn 100 books a 12 months or some large quantity like that.

Dan Szymborski: Right here’s one I not often see talked about: Herman Wouk’s The Lawgiver

Dan Szymborski: Joanna Kevada’s Zed

Dan Szymborski: I’m nonetheless unsure I truly like Cursed Bunny translation (Chung Bora), but it surely was actually on the market and ifferent

Mayo: Looks like Mayo is getting buried with restricted PT whereas stinking up the joint.  What sort of plan is that for him to succeed?

Dan Szymborski: Not a very good one

Dan Szymborski: I believe the O’s are at the moment caught between two very separate impulses

Greg: For what n is the hole between the Rockies and the twenty ninth most analytically superior group equal to the hole between the first most analytically superior group and the nth most analytically superior group?

Dan Szymborski: For one, the Rockies should not the least analytically superior group

Dan Szymborski: They do have a group, although with out the assets of the extra all-in groups

Jeff in Jersey: I like that you just picked the Tigers over the Dodgers as WS favorites.

Dan Szymborski: Massive Pitcher Power takes an outsized chunk within the playoffs and the Dodgers simply aren’t that good right here

Visitor: Soroka’s arm slot is decrease than it has been in years previous. Can he have new discovered success, or is he only a middling pitcher shifting ahead?

Dan Szymborski: I’m actually extra optimistic than I used to be earlier than

Dan Szymborski: however I nonetheless assume the everyday good final result is worthy inning eater

Szymbo Slice: Talking of the Orioles, why pay Kittridge all that cash after they received’t even give him the eighth? Baker seems higher!

Dan Szymborski: He did get a quite late begin to the season

Dan Szymborski: And so they should pay him the cash it doesn’t matter what!

Robotic Umps: Do you might have any issues that robotic umpires for balls and strikes can be working in a two-dimensional strike zone?  I hate the concept, however I hate the bogus pitch clock too – why are we hurrying up precisely?

Dan Szymborski: Some, however I’m unsure human umps are terribly good at a number of dimensions both

Bob Loblaw: Who’s, in your opinion, the least analytically superior group?

Dan Szymborski: White Sox

Visitor: “one can argue it’s not good to take away a skillset” I see pitch framing as the identical type of talent set that encourages soccer performs to go down like they had been shot and flop round a bit when nobody was close to them in an effort to draw a penalty.

Dan Szymborski: I wish to give Nobel prizes for chemistry, not Nobel prize for misleading deceptive chemistry

Dan Szymborski: My essential drawback with robotic balls/strikes is that a complete attraction course of is simply dumb time-wasting purple tape

Dan Szymborski: The purpose needs to be the ump to listen to “ball” or “strike” in an earpiece after which consider verify swings, and many others

Visitor: Final 12 months Michael Harris began actually gradual after which exploded in previous couple of months, do you see the identical presumably occurring this 12 months or is the man he’s been this 12 months extra probably his norm with manner too many floor balls?

Dan Szymborski: I’m nto so certain, however I hope so given how unhealthy that projection is that if he doesn’t!

Ok Gilgeous-Alexander: What’s the distinction between statcast and pitch data plate self-discipline metrics? Has one been proven to be extra correct than the opposite?

Dan Szymborski: I believe the issue is you’d be judging accuracy of the calls in opposition to one or the opposite

Dan Szymborski: On that observe, I’ve rather a lot to care for this afternoon, so I bid you all adieu for 2 weeks!

Dan Szymborski: (I’m away subsequent week)