Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 6/6/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy from Tempe, the place it looks like it’s time to pay the value for dwelling right here but once more. First day of the Mix is presently forecast for 115 levels. I could be transient immediately to go end up the Rangers record. Padres record went up this week, go test that out.

Matt: Any ETAs for the 2025 draft BOARD replace and mock draft(s)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Publish Mix more than likely

Takao: That is extra a “organizational query” than a prospect query, however Baseball America has ranked the Reds minor league hitting improvement the worst in baseball 3 of the previous 4 years (with a backside 5 displaying in 12 months 4). In your opinion, does that rating precisely replicate the general system exterior of the apparent names (Collier, Stewart, and many others.)? Price noting, Reds fan right here and I’d are likely to agree that our hitting dev has been atrocious since roughly 2021.

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe they’ve by chance ended up with numerous chase-prone hitters, or hitters with a persistently exploitable weak spot that might make it exhausting for them to have sustained success. Numerous guys with “inside out” kinds of contact there, too. Would I say their hitting dev is dangerous although? I believe that’s as a lot of a black field as something in dev, powerful to say from the skin.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: I’ve seen reporting that FCL Orioles’ Joshua Liranzo‘s max EV is as much as 106.8 mph, however I don’t actually have context for that. Is that quantity good/common/dangerous for an 18-year-old? Have you learnt if he has good EV90 or contact information to this point?

Eric A Longenhagen: Listed below are common max exits by age:

Eric A Longenhagen: 26- 108.2
25 -107.6
24- 107.2
23- 106.9
22- 106.7
21- 105.9
20- 104.8
19- 103.5
18- 102.0
17- 100.5 (small pattern)

Eric A Longenhagen: commonplace deviation industry-wide is like 3.5 to three.8 mph, relying on the 12 months.

Eric A Longenhagen: These numbers are IN THE MINORS btw

Eric A Longenhagen: So you might say Liranzo has plus energy for his age, however in comparison with MLB common max exits (108), he’s a shade under

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d 45 his current uncooked, 60 future uncooked, perhaps extra if you’re inclined to venture on his body.

Eric A Longenhagen: Additionally btw I’ve him hitting a ball 111 this 12 months

Takao: What are the percentages that Tyson Lewis winds up a prime 20 or so prospect in baseball by the top of 2026?

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s see how his really feel to hit developments. I’m apprehensive about that half. Positively is a Prime 50 prospect kind of athlete, undecided he’s a superb hitter.

Justin: Has Josue De Paula‘s added energy in video games come because of actual bodily / strategy / swing improvement, or is it simply small pattern theater?  Additionally, whenever you say unfastened within the hips, is that good or dangerous or impartial?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tremendous sturdy for his age, roughly common contact really feel that performs up as a result of he’s so selective. Free within the hips is sweet. Hip/shoulder separation is an enormous a part of baseball, and actually most sports activities.

Brendan: In your time protecting prospects/minor league methods, which workforce has altered their strategy most drastically?

Eric A Longenhagen: Texas

Eric A Longenhagen: Texas’ transition to the Younger regime was fairly stark. Baltimore’s underneath Elias has been, too.

Eric A Longenhagen: White Sox and Tampa have most likely modified the least.

Afterthought: Not a query, simply closing a thread from early Could: Luis De León is now again at Aberdeen and Miguel Rodríguez had surgical procedure in April to restore a left ankle fracture (yikes) – thanks for doing these Q&As!

Eric A Longenhagen: De nada

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe you simply need Sheehan for 2025 fantasy functions, proper? He’s rehabbing now, he seems to be good, the large league workforce has a necessity of kinds, he’s been up earlier than, the Dodgers are good….

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s his stuff from his final rehab outing. Fastball mainly ensures he’s going to be one thing good.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d put Tong and Whiz subsequent, simply extra steady than the remaining when it comes to strikes (Tong) and workload (Whiz)

Jimmy Dugan: McGonigle gotta transfer as much as AA proper?

Eric A Longenhagen: They need to have a reasonably fast hook, however to me that’s like a month of play. Man has largely been harm for the final two seasons and barely performed at West Michigan.

Captain Moonlight: yo Eric – I all the time just like the MLB calibration grades. May you hook me up with present device grades for like, Ernie Clement?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s such a bizarre one

Eric A Longenhagen: Like 70 contact and protection, 30 energy and plate self-discipline

Nate: Bazzana wasn’t dangerous earlier than harm, however given how a pair members of final years draft class have already made it to the bigs with a pair extra monitoring like greater worth guys (Wetherholt, Burns)… did the Guards mess up on the prime of final 12 months’s draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, I believe you might make the argument that if issues truly click on for Cags from a self-discipline/chase standpoint that he ought to have been the man, partially as a result of that’s precisely the form of participant Cleveland has been missing for the final couple of minutes. However they’re a risk-averse org and this was the risk-averse choose. He’ll be effective, it’s far too early to guage, however I agree that pace/proximity ought to be an enormous a part of prospect consideration.

Mike B: Ideas on the spectacular season so removed from Josue Briceno?? Headed into prime 25 prospect territory?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’ll find yourself near that simply through graduations forward of him. Let’s see how his protection developments all through the season now that he’s catching once more.

Mateo: Raniel promoted to low A – is that this probably the most electrical bat via the org since Oscar Taveras?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s freaking superior. Not projectable in any respect, he’s bordering on cumbersome already. Bu holy cow can he play. I had a lot enjoyable watching him final week. I’ll attempt to get video up asap, like tonight or tomorrow, so that you guys can see.

Eric A Longenhagen: Positively a prime 100 addition after I get to the Playing cards record right here shortly (subsequent week or two)

Farce Majeure: How have you ever appreciated Alfredo Duno‘s season to this point? Thanks prematurely!

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s nonetheless moderately childlike general, which has its deserves. Really feel for timing on the dish is combined (noticed him a bunch final week, too, at Jupiter) however his instruments and measurement are jus so freaky. Simply holding him the place he’s at, FV smart, I used to be already irresponsibly bullish coming into the 12 months.

Fred whitfield: any New names poppping up within the complicated leagues?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m digging the Yolfran Castillo & Devin Fitz-Gerald dynamic duo as I work on Texas. May go on the market tonight for one final look earlier than their record publishes.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yairo Padilla is absolutely bodily. He’s unpolished in all sides however goes to have uncommon uncooked energy for a shortstop (if he can keep there)

Thomas: Ideas on Addison Barger’s latest efficiency? Fulfilling the highest finish of his prospect projection, or enjoying out over his skis?

Eric A Longenhagen: He made substantive adjustments to his swing, I believe this could be actual uptick.

thelongball24: Victor Figueroa, 1B, SDP, is absolutely buzzy proper now after pounding the complicated leagues and now Lake E.  Have you ever had an opportunity to see him this 12 months?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, heavy-bodied 1B/DH solely kind with power over bat pace. Honorable Point out kind.

Refugee: Do you suppose you’ll ever go away Arizona?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, the query is “when?” and what may catalyze it. Like if the owner got here to the door immediately and mentioned, “hey I wanna promote this home” I’d gtfo and be a Panthers season ticket holder someplace within the Triangle months from now.

Eric A Longenhagen: Someplace with higher air high quality can be good.

Brandon: How do you get higher at scouting pitch shapes and sequencing?

Eric A Longenhagen: Do some prep earlier than you sit and watch a sport, after which actually sit and watch. Use our charts and graphs to assist. Like these:

Eric A Longenhagen: Sit with a pen and paper and never your telephone and simply see what comes out of you, chart one thing nevertheless you’re naturally inclined, simply watch the ball transfer and the hitters react.

Nuxie: How straightforward/troublesome is it to show prospect X to raise the ball. It looks like fairly ceaselessly I see that participant X simply has to be taught to raise the ball and the sky’s the restrict

Eric A Longenhagen: Generally it’s a really feel factor that may naturally develop over time, generally groups make proactive adjustments. I believe the proactive change can slender their focus too early and also you lose ceiling. Such as you’d by no means wish to pull Miguel Cabrera apart at age 18 and inform him “solely pull the ball, son”, you’re capping his ceiling as a hitter by doing that even when it’s strategically sound to use that pondering to many of the hitter inhabitants.

Justin: Who do you suppose is probably the most polished, most mlb-ready hitter within the draft.  It is a Pirates query.

Eric A Longenhagen: Kilen

Mr Burrito: Any notable publish prospect guys leaping out at you this 12 months?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe Maikel Garcia goes to maintain getting higher, I believe Jonatan Arranda is unquestionably being seasoned by the hitting surroundings at Steinbrenner Subject however he’s nonetheless fairly good, I believe Josh Jung seems to be higher than his floor stats and nonetheless may enhance coming off harm.. who else?

Eric A Longenhagen: Abner Uribe seems to be prefer it’s clicked

Hello Eric (Coronary heart): There’s an epidemic of commenters saying “if I’m the GM” as a substitute of “if I have been the GM”

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d nonetheless first purge the individuals who name it “the MLB”

Nuxie: Which statcast stats would you contemplate probably the most relative to a prospect’s future?

Eric A Longenhagen: in-zone contact and both exhausting hit fee or EV90

Kevin: How has NIL and the switch portal affected school and minor league baseball probably the most?

Eric A Longenhagen: The incentives of faculty coaches and recruiters completely modified. You mainly want an novice and professional scouting workers now. I don’t imagine we’ve seen a drop in he variety of excessive schoolers who signal for six figures or so, although my instincts would have been to anticipate a drop. Like my NIL deal at Louisville is X so you should pay me Y, and also you’re not going to so I’m going to highschool. That hasn’t actually occurred as far as I can inform.

Eric A Longenhagen: There are undoubtedly examples of that, just like the Levonas child at Wake seems like turned down north of $2 mil and as a substitute went to highschool.

Eric A Longenhagen: Positively extra adjustments to varsity than professional because of the portal and NIL.

John: Is Carson Williams cooked? Okay% has been barely trending down (to a nonetheless unpleasant 36.5%) however his in-zone and general contact charges are horrific. Undecided if he’ll even get to a .220ish man with 30percentK within the majors.

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t freak but. Go look a 21 y/o PCA’s Okay% at Iowa.

Eric A Longenhagen: That glove offers him an enormous flooring, similar as PCA. He’ll be given ample time to determine it out. Is it a blemish? Sure, and it means you shouldn’t count on a meteoric rise and immediate massive league success. However I believe it’ll be okay over time.

Kevin: What have you learnt about baseball now that you just didn’t know even a couple of years in the past?

Eric A Longenhagen: The general public rankings are an even bigger facet of groups’ fashions than I might have guessed. Visible machine studying capabilities are exploding. Kick adjustments, seam-shifted wake. Progress plates. Clover Park’s elevator shaft floods when it rains actually exhausting.

Jon: Are you shopping for the Kevin McGonigle hype? EVs look fairly good and hit / self-discipline are elite.

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s an opportunity, due to his lack of measurement, that we’re in Evan Carter territory the place his abilities are so particular that, on paper, it seems to be like he has greater bodily instruments than he truly does. However largely I actually like him and suppose it’s actual.

Insert Witty Identify Right here: I’ve younger sons who love baseball and in the event that they pursue the sport I’m going to assist them.  However I’m additionally not rich.  Is there a definite benefit for teenagers who’ve wealthier dad and mom to develop into prospects, or can inner drive/work negate that benefit?  My preliminary thought is that with the ability to play journey ball and showcases pit you up towards elite competitors which helps improvement.

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re at a drawback as a result of the children whose households who will pay to fly to Fort Myers or Lakepoint each month are going to get seen extra and generate extra information. Attempt to become involved in actions which can be *scout run* and never company, so Space Codes or East Coast Professional tryouts and such. The excellent news is that school recruiters and training staffs have extra incentive than ever to know the juco expertise surroundings, so there are numerous paths to a scholarship, and many others. So far as effort and self-discipline are involved, all I’ll say is I’d keep away from specializing in baseball. Play a bunch of sports activities, do theater and different stuff.

Sodo Mojo: Montes has nothing left to show in Everett proper? I assume transferring to a extra impartial surroundings like Arkansas will provide you with a greater view of his worth transferring ahead.

Eric A Longenhagen: Correctemundo

Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t say he or Walker are misplaced causes, however I can see why you’re pissed off, partially since you’ve been primed by Buxton’s accidents.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everybody, I’ve gotta run and end the Rangers record. Search for that tomorrow morning. I’ll even have contributed to the mailbag tomorrow with some 20/80 scale explainer content material. ta ta for now