Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 6/2/25

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: I’ve been diving into two matters significantly not too long ago: beginning up some work for the commerce worth collection and doing a analysis venture on how our pitch mannequin grades may very well be used to enhance or give context to projections

Ben Clemens: so I’ve to be sincere with you, I’ll be a bit gentle on the “sizzling takes on a participant I watched a whole lot of final week” entrance this week relative to regular

Ben Clemens: however heavier on answering process-based stuff, broad league questions, and meals and board sport questions should you’ve bought em

Dallas: Oneil Cruz or EDLC? Which one would you are taking should you needed to decide one to play on your staff.

Ben Clemens: Yeah like right here’s one. Come on, although, it’s Elly. He’s three years youthful. He performs a extra precious defensive place and has proven the chops to be superb there at peak. I like Oneil loads, too, he’s a fixture on commerce worth lists. And Elly will in all probability be coming down on the record, since he didn’t again up final yr’s offensive development but. However I’ve nonetheless bought EDLC comfortably forward

Bosoxforlife: The Royals simply referred to as up Jac Caglianone and the time has lengthy since handed for the anemic Purple Sox offense to inject  Roman Anthony into the lineup. How does a Rafaela for  Alcantara deal sound?

Ben Clemens: Feels like a deal that you just’d make 8 days per week as Boston, and 0-ish because the Marlins, not less than to me

Ben Clemens: It’d be one factor if Alcantara had a ton of lifeless cash, however his deal is preposterously inexpensive

Ben Clemens: If the Sox can discover somebody who values Rafaela as a first-division common, they need to hit the bid instantly

Ben Clemens: Like, the man simply can’t hit. He’s an excellent defender (an archetype I’ve historically overvalued, extra on that later for certain), however now we have a ton of proof that he’s not going to hit. If somebody is prepared to dream on the minor league numbers nonetheless, I feel it could be malpractice by the Purple Sox entrance workplace to not commerce him to that staff

Jb: Who do you want extra Lawrence Butler or Colt Keith. Each bought large extension and have been mediocre since then

Ben Clemens: I like Butler extra, however with an asterisk I suppose. The factor I all the time appreciated about Keith was that I assumed he may faux second base nicely sufficient to get his bat within the lineup there, a la Brandon Lowe

Ben Clemens: As a 1B/DH, I simply don’t know that he has that sort of offensive juice. Like, I feel he might be effective there, however not a distinction maker

Ben Clemens: Whereas Butler looks as if a greater hitter to me, or not less than a higher-upside hitter, and I feel he’s extra probably to offer peripheral worth (baserunning) given their present positions

Lord Thunder: Corbin Carroll could have an .800-plus OPS within the second half of this season. Sure or no?

Nate: Time for the Jac Assault – is he prepared or are the Royals determined for offense?

Walton Dilcox: Simply need to say the articles I learn as a non-sub are absolute 🔥. Will subscribe when some windfall happens!

Ben Clemens: Hey, that’s why now we have the free ones

Ben Clemens: I’m very pleased you might be having fun with them

Ben Clemens: And are available again when you possibly can, the water’s all the time heat

El Espresso: Which righty will get extra saves for the Dodgers: Diaz or Kopech? Is both over 3?

Ben Clemens: I feel I’d take Kopech however actually, no sturdy view

Darren: I used to be an previous field rating of a sport I went to (Blue Jays v. Mariners, June 30, 2008) and realized that regardless of these being two middling groups on the time, I watched 4 future Corridor of Famers play in the identical sport (Halladay, Rolen, Beltre, Ichiro). That appeared like loads, so I attempted to determine which common season sport within the final 30 years featured essentially the most future HOFers within the lineup, however the analysis appeared intimidating (and a number of AI instruments instructed me it could require an excessive amount of field rating analysis in order that they wouldn’t hassle both).

Anyhow, that brings me to my Q — are you able to consider a sport you went to that had a notable variety of future HOFers? Or need to take a stab at nighttime at what non-All Star sport might need had essentially the most in latest reminiscence?

Ben Clemens: That is enjoyable, and I agree that the AI wouldn’t do that for you – the info acquisition is the problem right here. Should you may feed it all of the databases, I wager it may very well be solved, perhaps this can be a good fluff article for me sooner or later

Ben Clemens: Off the highest of my head, although: I’d guess that it’s a sport involving both the Yankees of the early 2000’s or Dodgers of latest classic. Like, Kershaw began a sport earlier this month and that’s 4 proper there (Mookie, Shohei, Freddie, Kershaw)

Ben Clemens: or, I suppose late final month, proper

Oaktown Blues: This horrible stretch by the A’s has in all probability ended any notions of 2025 rivalry. That mentioned, it feels just like the place participant core is essentially in place. Do you assume they will enhance the pitching sufficient to be good in 2026?

Ben Clemens: mmmmm….. like, actually, no

Ben Clemens: however, I agree together with your prognosis. The hitting might be ok

Ben Clemens: or not less than, the core of it has a number of hits

Ben Clemens: Their pitching dev has not been good of late, which doesn’t give me a ton of hope. However I do assume that they’re going about this the proper manner, significantly in the event that they’re prepared to spend on a couple of Wacha/Lugo sorts this offseason (ha ,the A’s spend, hilarious). The Royals now have an excellent pitching workers and so they mainly seemed terrible proper up till they didn’t. It’s actually within the realm of risk, I simply don’t assume it’s probably

Some kinda Mook: Skubal about to cross 100 Ks with solely 7 BBs. I bear in mind being flabbergasted when Koji went 101/9 again in 2013. What a loopy factor.

Ben Clemens: it’s outrageous

Ben Clemens: Imagine it or not, somebody posted this to me on Bluesky when it occurred as a possible 5 issues play, and I watched all of it. What on this planet. Each swing in that at-bat was terrible

jupiterbrando: hello Ben. Simply need to say that as somebody who can’t typically be within the chats however loves studying them, I all the time recognize how a lot you reply

Ben Clemens: I’m certain it lowers the typical high quality of the solutions a bit to go so stream-of-consciousness as an alternative of researching every, however I really feel like that web serves extra folks?

Nate: Jacob Wilson – I’d like to know the final time a participant’s BB% and Ok% *mixed* to be under 12%

Ben Clemens: I’m assuming it was 2024

Ben Clemens: (Luis Arraez)

Ben Clemens: and earlier than that, 2023 (Luis Arraez)

Ben Clemens: Additionally, Luis Arraez in 2025 is at a mixed 6.8%, what the hellllll

Nate: Ever performed Shipwreck Arcana? Extraordinarily enjoyable logic sport

Ben Clemens: my spouse introduced this dwelling this weekend

Ben Clemens: we had been going to crack it open tonight. What a coincidence

Scoreboard415: SF meals query: Have you ever tried Candy Glory on ninth Ave? Superb date spot, however sadly closes at 6pm every day.

Ben Clemens: no nevertheless it simply jumped to the highest of my record. that space has some good choices for sweets, although. I like hometown creamery and there’s a House Espresso within the space

jupiterbrando: Luis Torrent’s Baseball Savant web page (and the attention check), at what level would (or ought to) the Mets think about him the long-term answer at catcher and Alvarez a luxurious backup?

Ben Clemens: I’d be giving them a 50/50 break up already, personally

Ben Clemens: My confidence in Alvarez hitting is declining in a short time. It’s simply been too lengthy since he has been in a position to impression the ball with authority. I’d be pleased to offer him time to determine it out if there weren’t a doubtlessly superb choice already on the staff, or if he had an extended observe report of success, however his greatest software was alleged to be his energy, and it’s exhausting to say he’s higher than Torrens there

Ben Clemens: His archetype (younger catcher, flashed a premium offensive software) might be getting decimated within the last commerce worth record this yr, for what it’s value

HoF: Lots of probably Corridor of Famers have modified groups mid-career. Which cap do you assume every of those gamers will go in carrying?

Mookie (LAD / BOS)
Freeman (LAD / ATL)
Harper (WSH / PHI)
Arenado (COL / STL)
Goldschmidt (ARI / STL)
Ohtani (LAA / LAD)
Lindor (CLE / NYM)

Ben Clemens: Oh, this can be a enjoyable one, and a few of these are shut. Listed below are those that really feel stable to me: Mookie LAD (nonetheless bought a whole lot of profession left and appears very pleased there), Arenado StL (the connection in Colorado was v dangerous and he had some nice years as a Card), Goldschmidt Arizona (greatest hitter in franchise historical past, by no means had an excellent postseason as a Cardinal to flip the steadiness). I’d put Harper Philly on there, tbh: his wonderful efficiency after the massive free agent contract simply traces as much as me

Ben Clemens: Lindor I lean NYM b/c the connection with possession in Cleveland appeared dangerous. Ohtani I feel it’s too quickly to inform

Ben Clemens:

Scoreboard415: Apart from NYY and LAD, who from every of the AL East and the NL West are you shopping for as actual contenders the remainder of the best way?

Ben Clemens: Hmmm…. I’ve bought the Giants and Padres as actual. I’m much less assured within the ALE, not as a result of I don’t assume these groups are gonna make the playoffs, however as a result of they’re all so much like me and a few of them are going to beat up on the others

Ben Clemens: The NLW groups actually have their fair proportion of weaknesses, however I just like the banked wins and I just like the top-end expertise on each squads

Orioles: What strikes would you make for the Orioles? Promote O’Hearn/Mullins or attempt to purchase?

Sodo mojo: if the Mariners sweep the O’s do they formally enter the promote pending free brokers stage of the season and if that’s the case what does it take to get O’hearns as a rental?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, if I’m the O’s, I’m attempting to reload for 2026 now

Ben Clemens: That mentioned, O’Hearn can go straightforward, I’d be tempted to maintain Mullins except there was a really tempting provide. I need Mullins on the 2026 O’s if potential

Ben Clemens: that dude simply makes the staff go

Bosoxforlife: This has been crushed greater than a rented mule however the eye check says the Rockies can’t presumably attain 40 wins. Do the quantity nonetheless stick with the idea that they will’t presumably as dangerous as they seem like?

Ben Clemens: Proper? Um…. I feel they will perhaps get to 40, however I don’t purchase our numbers in any respect

comish4lif: Meals query – I’ve some leftover grilled rooster breast. Made pork fried rice with the left over pork chops. What ought to I do with the rooster?

Ben Clemens: Oh, it’s already grilled? I made a grilled caesar wrap not too long ago that was superior utilizing an analogous leftover. Simply chopped up the rooster, chopped up some romaine, and combined in some cherry tomatoes and Caesar dressing. Wrapped all of it up in a tortilla. Phenomenal

Jeff: Birdsong or Harrison—which Giants SP do you want ROS?

Ben Clemens: I’m open to the likelihood that I’m overrating him, however I simply purchase it

Ben Clemens: the changeup is nasty, I feel he’s doing sufficient in opposition to same-handed batters that the combo might be actually good

wingedbeater: How would you even go about valuing Jarren Duran in a commerce? Looks like one of many hardest gamers to commerce in that he has one unbelievable yr on his resume which you can’t low cost but additionally appears fairly clearly to be not one thing he’s going to repeat. I really feel like that uncertainty alone makes him unlikely to be traded

Ben Clemens: It is a nice query, and one I’ve been battling A TON

Ben Clemens: I left Duran off the commerce worth record final yr, for instance

Ben Clemens: and boy, that certain seemed foolish for the whole lot of 2024. However it seems loads higher now

Ben Clemens: I’m struggling to see a 120 wRC+ hitter right here, I simply didn’t fairly imagine the ability. And I don’t actually assume he’s a plus heart fielder, standout 2024 defensive metrics however. So he’s simply in a extremely awkward in between state the place like, he’s demonstrated many abilities of an elite participant, however all of them in methods wehre you go ‘eh can that hold going?’

Ben Clemens: and in every case, it hasn’t stored going

Ben Clemens: So yeah, this can be a wildly troublesome query and I don’t really feel that I’ve gotten to the underside of it but

Ben Clemens: however don’t fear, you might be gonig to get hundreds of phrases about it over the subsequent few months

Smokin’ Jim Leyland: Improbably, is Tarik Skubal pitching *even higher* this yr than his unanimous Cy Younger profitable season final yr? 94 pitch Maddux hitting 103 MPH on his final pitch (and thirteenth Strikeout)? No clue how lengthy it might final, however soaking this up whereas it does – most gratifying Tigers pitcher since Verlander/Scherzer!

Ben Clemens: I couldn’t agree with you extra. Once I wrote about him not too long ago, it was much less of my ordinary “let’s discover some standout nook case ability” and extra “let’s all marvel at how this man is pitching on the excessive high of the game”

HappyFunBall: Higher A’s query: Will this beautiful good hitting core final lengthy sufficient for them to truly begin taking part in in Vegas and, not less than theoretically, have {dollars} to spend on pitching?

Ben Clemens: I imply…. no, proper?

Ben Clemens: The sensible cash is on no

Bosoxforlife: Returning to my earlier remark would Abreu, energy and nice protection, be sufficient for Alcantara?

Ben Clemens: He would for me. I don’t have a robust concept of how the trade as a complete values him

Ben Clemens: However I’m fairly excessive on him. Elite protection, controllable, probability for plus offensive instruments. I really like this sort of participant

Bosoxforlife: Have you ever ever attended a sport at PNC Park? I’m going to the U.S. Open and on 6/10 I’ve a ticket to observe the Pirates play the Marlins. I hoped to see a significant league sport however this was all that was obtainable.

Ben Clemens:

Ben Clemens: I’ve, and it was wonderful

Ben Clemens: Should you can, get there early sufficient to stroll over the Clemente bridge from downtown

Ben Clemens: I went to a crappy September sport between teh Pirates and Brewers when neither staff was within the playoff hunt, and it was nonetheless superior

Insert Witty Title Right here: is Chandler Simpson actually that dangerous or is that this some service time manipulation happening? If I’ve a cushty lead in fantasy, ought to I maintain on to him as a stash

Ben Clemens: I feel the protection is simply not there but

Ben Clemens: I’ve been stunned that he hasn’t been making extra performs within the outfield, although in fact, very small pattern measurement and whatnot

Ben Clemens: however I perceive the place they’re coming from. They’re in a spot the place the wins are SUPER precious, proper on the fringes of the race, and this dude simply isn’t getting it achieved proper now

Ben Clemens: I actually don’t assume it’s service time manipulation. The Rays are’nt dummies. Nobody ought to be valuing yr seven of Chandler Simpson staff management greater than bettering proper now in a good playoff race

Oddball Herrera: Coors subject is one other stadium the place going to a sport is a superb expertise even when the standard of baseball isn’t

Ben Clemens: Yep. Each Coors and PNC are in my high 5. Actually Coors is likely to be primary. The Rock Pile elevated bar/social gathering part is rather well achieved, the views can’t be beat, they do cool giveaways, the tickets are inexpensive, it’s proper downtown

Ben Clemens: should you simply utterly ignored their on-field report and the way they get to it, I feel the Rockies can be a mannequin franchise. They spend. They do a great job locally. They’ve a candy Metropolis Join and appear to get Denver as greatest as I can inform, based mostly on my associates there and my instances visiting.

Ben Clemens: They simply can not work out the right way to make good baseball groups

Eli: One horrible sport isn’t altering your enthusiasm for Will Warren, proper? Riiiight?

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah, completely agree

Ben Clemens: I’m cussed about giving up on dudes, but additionally, I don’t assume that is me being cussed, simply cheap

Ben Clemens: he seems superior, on web, and pitching is hard

Didace: Of their final 16 video games, the Nationals are 11-5 in opposition to some fairly good competitors. Is it a)that’s baseball, or b)hey, they is likely to be getting good.

JCCinDC: No actual remark besides an remark that, as a Nats fan, it’s good to have a little bit of hope for the primary time because the rebuild started practically 4 years in the past. They’re not good, thoughts you. Not but. The protection is terrible, and the beginning pitching past Gore is, to be charitable, stuffed with query marks. However the staff is younger, and it’s the younger gamers which are doing the work. Jettisoning the vets for the youngsters has improved the bullpen (low bar there). And there’s extra on the best way. Even after Wooden and Crews have “graduated” the farm system has some stable prospects (Sykora; Home; Dickerson; Susana).

Ben Clemens: Much more Nats questions than this, I simply picked the newest ones

Ben Clemens: I feel they is likely to be getting good. I’ve been fairly excessive on this Nats core for some time, to be honest. I had a ton of those dudes on the commerce worth record final yr, and if yow will discover a public-side analyst who’s been extra within the tank for James Wooden, I’m curious to listen to who it’s

Ben Clemens: However like…. that is the way you’re alleged to do it. I like a whole lot of their trades. I feel that usually, Mike Rizzo has achieved a wonderful job in commerce and a much less good job within the draft, however the web is fairly good

Ben Clemens: They’re an attention-grabbing org: clearly, they’re behind the curve on some tech-y pitch modeling stuff, simply based mostly on who they commerce for and all that. However they, and perhaps particularly Rizzo, appear to have a great really feel for seeing transcendent expertise and making it work

Ben Clemens: additionally, you may argue with the best way the method is constructed at a ‘which gamers to focus on and develop’ degree, however Rizzo does a extremely good job on the margins

Ben Clemens: the Nathaniel Lowe commerce, chef’s kiss, really easy, so worthwhile

Hunter: Should you may swap two guys, no matter feasibility of really buying and selling them for one another, who would you swap?

Ben Clemens: Decide and Ohtani

Ben Clemens: gotta see it

Dan: What number of seasons does choose need to play for the Yankees to be glad they signed him to his contract? Assume they don’t have insurance coverage so is he’s damage they’re consuming the total quantity left.

Thanks!: In keeping with the participant web page, Decide might find yourself with 2 years of surplus worth on his contract on the finish of this yr (3 of 9), that means he’s banked 5 of 9 years in worth. That’s loopy on his annual fee. No manner they traded him, however what would his commerce worth be? Outdoors of aggressive dynamics, from a pure worth standpoint, looks as if they’re optimum timing clever after this season.

Ben Clemens: I imply…. like another yr?

Ben Clemens: since he signed the deal he’s been value 21 WAR in 1400 PA, what the precise hell

Ben Clemens: give him one other calendar yr of well being, name it 9 WAR, we’re at 30 WAR for $360 million over 9 years, not wonderful however I’m certain they’d settle for it

Ben Clemens: with, oh, 5.5 years of free worth left

Ben Clemens: I’m going to get completely ridiculed by a few of my extra value-focused contacts for a way excessive I put Decide on the record this yr, I’m certain of it

Bruce: Any straightforward to level to knowledge that reveals the oven mitts lower down readily available accidents?  Making an attempt to win an argument shortly.

Ben Clemens: I don’t know of any, to be sincere

Dan: In youth sports activities some leagues allow you to add a participant out of your opponents staff once you advance to the subsequent match. I feel that is principally achieved to keep away from over taxing arms or operating right into a staff advancing a lot they will’t discover a full roster since households might not have deliberate across the staff having video games the entire summer season. Might the majors let’s groups make use of somebody from their division who didn’t make the playoffs? Would followers like that? Would homeowners hate it?

Ben Clemens: I imagine Successfully WIld has tlaked about this one earlier than

Ben Clemens: You couldn’t do it, haha. The damage and use questions are simply too fraught

Ben Clemens: however in a world the place everybody was actually altruistic, I’d like it

Smiling Politely: that is late, however folks may not notice Freddie Freeman grew up in SoCal and his entire household nonetheless lives down right here and his dad (considerably famously because the WS) involves the video games whereas ATL mainly dumped him; I feel he’s carrying an LA cap or a clean one

Ben Clemens: Proper so, the ultimate tally was 66% Braves 34% Dodgers

Ben Clemens: I used to be nearer to 50/50, which is why I requested. I agree with you that the truth that he grew up in SoCal actually helps, and he received the WS there. However he additionally did with the Braves, and an MVP in addition. I feel if the Dodgers by no means break by way of once more and Freeman declines swiftly after this yr, maybe he’d go together with ATL, however he’s going to have extra future juice in LA

Chooch: The yearly transfer Trea to the OF crowd is beginning to roar once more in Philly. Any ideas? Doing it now appears worse than over an low season, who replaces him, is Sosa’s bat at SS actually that significantly better than sitting presumably marsh/rojas.

Your protection isn’t getting higher with a mid-season Trea transfer to CF, Sosa slot in at SS and sitting marsh/rojas who convey stable protection not less than.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, offseason for me

Ben Clemens: if you wish to do it, even, which I haven’t actually considered it

Ben Clemens: I agree with you that you just aren’t actually fixing the offense by doing this, so it simply appears like a whole lot of threat for not a lot reward

War2d2: A part of the Cubs’ sturdy begin has been getting extra manufacturing out of the catcher spot than anybody fairly anticipated. With Amaya down and Kelly lawn-darting again to earth, would you will have introduced Ballesteros again as much as see if he was in a position to fill the hole? By all experiences the bat is prepared and the D actually, actually isn’t. At what level do the cost-benefit  numbers work for that to be an choice?

Ben Clemens: I imply, I’d, however I’m utterly within the tank for Ballesteros. Love the dude

War2d2: The Decide query made me consider what the very best “surplus worth” FA contract ever signed was. The large one I can consider is the primary Scherzer-Nats deal; my understanding is that with deferrals he mainly signed for what Lester signed for, and Lester was a tire fireplace after yr 3.

Ben Clemens: Matt Holliday Cardinals is up there, too

Ben Clemens: he was fairly superior with them, .288/.377/.486, 139 wRC+ and 24 WAR in seven years, with most of it within the first 5

Ben Clemens: all that for $114m

Victoria: Ben, I miss Shota

Ben Clemens: Victoria, I do too

Houzer: Let’s say the Jays fall out – may the Tigers get Bichette and Berrios for Jace Jung and Keider Montero?

Ben Clemens: I feel so. However I don’t actually assume the Jays will fall off?

Ben Clemens: or like, fall off to the extent the place they’re buying and selling Bo

Ben Clemens: appears like they’d desire to let him go away in free company after the arc of the youngsters of the celebs is over

J-Rod: Liked the article you wrote about Cal’s new strategy on the plate (swinging much less). Do you assume Julio would profit from taking an analogous strategy?

Ben Clemens: I’ve considered it, and I concluded “huh I’m unsure”

Dan: Could be enjoyable (albeit unrealistic and troublesome to search out the entire examples) when eager about the excess worth of offers if trades on that contract had been included. My thought was Carlos Beltran’s cope with the Mets the place they ultimately traded him within the final yr for Zack Wheeler

Ben Clemens: nicely then it’s the Rays commerce tree, I assume, however yeah

Ben Clemens: that may be enjoyable for certain

AL Central Casting: Was that Twins win on Friday night time the comeback of the yr to date? Down by three with two outs in opposition to Andres Munoz?!

Ben Clemens: It was thrilling

Ben Clemens: man, nice closers are nice, however I additionally love watching them get crushed

Ben Clemens: the problem of being a fan of baseball as a complete reasonably than a particular staff

Scoreboard415: Apologies should you’ve achieved this already, however have you ever thought of writing a chunk about your transition to baseball author from the company trade? As somebody in tech, I’d like to be taught in regards to the trade-offs you made.

Ben Clemens: ehhhh…. offseason fare perhaps? or on a private weblog perhaps? it feels too navel-gazey for FanGraphs

yankeesfan123: are there any glatring flaws with the yanks after the dodgers siers

Ben Clemens: yeah, they solely have a single Aaron Decide

Ben Clemens: however I don’t actually assume so? I imply, they seemed good

Ben Clemens: the Dodgers look good too

Ben Clemens: loving the present Trent Grisham, fwiw

spaceman: you possibly can win an argument about actually something with a crimson sox fan simply by saying “mookie goes into the corridor as a dodger” it is likely to be merciless however it’s devastatingly efficient and they’ll overlook every thing they had been simply speaking about.

Ben Clemens: Okay that made me chortle

12 to six: kim’s efficiency to date is enabling the dodgers to be extra non-compulsory with their infield protection, and perhaps give mookie an additional few days on the il (and a pair extra tremendous measurement meals to place weight again on). given his close to gold-glove degree protection, you’d need to assume the pitching workers is pushing a bit for kim to be a fullish time mi, no?

Ben Clemens: I feel so. You may see the Dodgers like dfense – have a look at how lengthy Miguel Rojas has been round, on a staff that has 75 MVP’s

Ben Clemens: and the way a lot he’s performed!

Ben Clemens: so I feel that Kim taking up that position appears completely plausible

Ben Clemens: Alright everybody, thanks loads for the chat, I’ve gotta go get to writing in regards to the Diamondbacks now

Ben Clemens: and their….. unsettled rotation, let’s say

Ben Clemens: Have a beautiful week, and thanks for the nice questions at present