Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 5/30/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Good midday from the Cardinals backfields in Florida. I’m getting began a couple of minutes early so I can deal with the sport a bit sooner, as we’re about to get underway. Plus, there are already a ton of questions within the queue.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m hotspotting, so apologies if issues are spotty, internet-wise.

Eric A Longenhagen: In any case, thans for being right here.

Visitor: Any recommendation on how you can get into/enhance scouting skills? Any sources which were crucial in your studying?

Eric A Longenhagen: I might learn Jason Parks’ chapters within the second version of Further Innings, I might learn Greenback Signal on the Muscle, Future Worth, and go see dangerous baseball at your native faculties.

Dallas: What’s the stability between precise manufacturing vs. Ok charges? I have a look at guys like Esmerlyn Valdez and Konnor Griffin, every have carried out admirably this season and have up arrows, nonetheless each of their Ok charges are comparatively excessive. Is the manufacturing legit or is the Ok charges crimson flags for long run success?

Eric A Longenhagen: It may be each. I don’t assume a excessive Ok% is at all times essentially a “crimson flag”, which I related to bustdom. It provides danger, volatility however isn’t damning by itself…

Eric A Longenhagen: In these guys’ instances, Griffin has a 75% contact charge up to now this 12 months, Valdez is nearer to 70% even. That’s a extra granular, dependable knowledge level than the Ok%. You may type the FG leaderboard to see how the MLB distro appears to be like, 75% is a shade under common however not terrible.

Sam: Luis Morales… turning into what you hoped he would?

Eric A Longenhagen: His efficiency up to now makes me be ok with staying on him for the explanations I did (guys constructed like that, who transfer like that are inclined to pan out, grow to be one thing impactful) however you’re not likely proper or fallacious till these guys have had five-ish years within the bigs.

Early afternoon beerman: Does Jarred Kelenic ever get his groove again?  (Be happy to misinform me.)

Eric A Longenhagen: Sufficient to be helpful in a platoon capability? Certain. Is he making All Star groups? No.

Ryan: Is David Davalillo dominating with simply 1 pitch? I’ve heard rumor of a velo spike. The place do you stand on his SP/RP projection?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve him with 4 pitches. Was 94-97 for me this spring, been extra 92-95 up to now in the course of the common season. Two plus breaking balls. He’s good. Rangers checklist coming subsequent week btw.

Visitor: Are you able to elaborate/rank on some BOS pitchers in Early, Monegro and Paez?

Eric A Longenhagen: My instincts are Early are that he’s a temper multi-inning reliever. Really feel for location just isn’t all that starter-y, although his pitch combine is. I do know his stroll charge is low however he’s extra of a bully than a craftsman or surgeon…

Eric A Longenhagen: Monegro has refined his strategy and is now that man who dumps his slider into the highest of the zone for strikes after which elevates his fastball for misses. It’s a fairly violent mechanical look, all types of trunk tilt, head whack… I’m inclined to assume he’s a reliever, too, bu a superb one as a result of he slider high quality is a 70.

Eric A Longenhagen: Paez is damage and has essentially the most weak fastball of this group however he finest contact and really feel for command and two plus secondaries.

Ken: With elbow irritation after which a quad damage, ought to the A’s strongly think about transferring JT Ginn to the bullpen?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe you begin him so long as you possibly can, he nonetheless has all of his choices left. Except you’re contending and assume a bullpen transfer offers you an affect man again there, you wanna protect your total depth.

Tacoby Bellsbury: Which draft prospect has essentially the most variable outlook primarily based on the place they land?

Eric A Longenhagen: In all probability Seth Hernandez. Getting the fastball form into the appropriate spot and dialing in his command are the 2 dev variables there. Do each and he’s a monster.

Ryan: Might Braxton Bragg see Baltimore this season? Is there any purpose for Baltimore to even think about this? His growth will certainly be extra precious than any wins he might get the workforce – they’ve dug too deep a gap, proper?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe your qualifier is on level. In the event that they view issues as salvageable in some unspecified time in the future (and this is applicable to anybody within the minors who is likely to be one in all their finest dozen arms within the org) you would possibly get aggressive and promote the man, however for those who’re out of rivalry, you don’t.

See extra Butts: How good is Ian Seymour?  And when will he get to show it?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe he’s good, Uncle Tony. Once more, supply is hideous however he’s thrown strikes. A no. 4/5 sort starter on a contender.

Jeremy: Will Painter be within the Phillies bullpen or rotation within the playoffs?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t assume we all know but, that is simply the sort of factor that’ll play out over time. Accidents between now and the top of the season will likely be extra more likely to dictate that than something to do with expertise. Within the bullpen he may very well be Ok-Rod, or he may very well be Jobe. Flip the October lights on and these youngsters might go both method.

Ryan: How dependable are the contact charges Fangraphs studies on participant pages in Rookie ball? There are guys with excessive whiff percentages and loud numbers, which I’m not used to seeing at greater ranges. Is calibration inconsistent at such a low stage, or is it an instance of fellows feasting on subpar stuff typically sufficient to inflate their stats?

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re not right as a result of, relying on the setting, what will get marked as a swinging strike or wanting strike is likely to be automated. As an example, for those who strike out swinging, the MLB auto stringer offers he participant three swinging strikes within the at-bat. I’ve requested Sean about scrubbing that from the leaderboards however isolating that stat and leaving the opposite stuff just isn’t possible from an internet creating standpoint.

Eric A Longenhagen: So simply ignore these. I’m sorry, it’s not very best, and hopefully in some unspecified time in the future MLB can have extra correct, pitch by pitch knowledge for these ranges quickly and it gained’t be a difficulty anymore.

PJ: Handelfry Encarnacion didn’t crack your Brewers checklist. I at all times perk up with Brewers worldwide guys, particularly provided that legendary 2024 class that he’s part of. Is he simply off to a superb begin however extra of a 35 long run? Or room for extra?

Eric A Longenhagen: Suppose he’s gonna ponchada a ton, however has above common bat velocity.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d virtually at all times fairly have the man nearer to paydirt in fantasy.

Refugee: Preliminary ideas on the 2026 draft, particularly for groups drafting 1-10? The Gerth article from February was a pleasant primer.

Eric A Longenhagen: The Lebron child at ‘Bama will likely be up there. Greater than that I wish to take this chance to congratulate David on his new job with the Crimson Sox. He was employed this month and is transferring to Boston.

Eric A Longenhagen: We want him effectively, and usually are not stunned that groups had been on him not lengthy after he hopped on with us. He’s been a pleasure to work with for each me and the editors.

Visitor: With the DSL beginning quickly, who’re some guys to be careful for

Eric A Longenhagen: Simply the kiddos who obtained a bunch of cash. I’ll be snacking on Rangers streams all subsequent week. Everybody ought to go sit on Elian Pena early too. The Mets broadcast their video games down there and he’s an even bigger child who ought to transfer shortly if he really hits.

Rainel Rodriguez: Any EVs or contact % you possibly can share? And any likelihood he’s athletic to play someplace aside from C as that bay at floor stage appears to be like to have nice upside.

Eric A Longenhagen: My final pull of knowledge was too early to have a dependable pattern on that rating, however I’ve been with him this week and might verify he’s a dude. He hit a ball 109 the opposite day, he’s throwing effectively, he can hit and has energy. He’s not bodily projectable, he’s a heavier man bordering on cumbersome, however he’s tremendous athletic for his dimension. I really like him.

Afterthought: How do you contextualize batted ball / protection dependent outcomes for school pitchers? That is principally a Tyler Bremner query.

Eric A Longenhagen: Eh, simply scout the athlete and his stuff and aptitude. There are such a lot of variable in school ball that play with outcomes, bats, defenses, parks, league pitching high quality, switch portal, and so on.

Eric A Longenhagen: Take a look at Mike Villani, as an example. He’s not superb or something, however he’s a prospect. Threw 27 profession D-I innings.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s good, did Kiley and Lance put up their video but. Velo is up, mid-90s.

Bobby Peru: Catching a Somerset Patriots-Akron RubberDucks recreation this weekend. Are you able to give me a handful of fellows to regulate exterior of the apparent ones like Genao and Lombard?

Eric A Longenhagen: Watson and Ingle for Akron, Spenny and Flores (principally for protection) on Somerset

Nuxie: How has tyson lewis regarded.Tyson Lewis or Konnor griffin?

Eric A Longenhagen: Prefer it’s going to take him some time to learn to hit good pitching. I’d take Griffin, not significantly shut. Lewis is tooled out, although.

Visitor: Would you say the Bluejays are probably the most improved farm programs?

Eric A Longenhagen: Improved? Or initially underrated?

JacobM: Is David Shields quick begin at A ball primarily because of superior command of underwhelming stuff being an excessive amount of for younger hitters?  How a lot of this could we anticipate as he climbs, acknowledging SSS caveats?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure. I don’t assume he’s the sort of projectable athlete I’m betting will add velo, fairly lukewarm on him in a vacuum,  and KC hasn’t proven they’ll coax extra velo out of those guys.

Fred whitfield: This man villaini the reds obtained for diaz-anything there or did the reds get hosed once more?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s alright. I added him to the board, you possibly can go learn my report over there.

Eric A Longenhagen: They weren’t gonna get a high 100 man for him or something, he’s preforming like a fringe roster man.

Joan d’Flyball: Franklin Arias has been completely lights out even after his promotion to A+.  What, if any, are some areas to look at in his growth? Is every part lining as much as keep at SS?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah placed on the tape this morning and he appears to be like superior on protection. Crimson Sox checklist looms for me, he may very well be an enormous mover if I believe the hit software piece is actual. It actually appears to be like that method on paper, so far I haven’t been bought that it’s *this* good mechanically.

Ken: So Denzel Clarke on the plate. It’s not simply dangerous? They must invent a brand new phrase to explain it, proper? How can somebody put up completely cromulent numbers in AAA after which simply nothing within the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, occurs consistently. Swing size plus massive league stuff can equal a binary “no”

FBP: What are your views on Jordan Lawler. He was simply despatched down by Arizona and appears blocked Commerce fodder?

Eric A Longenhagen: He may not be good. Tremendous tightly wound decrease physique, some spectacular stuff on protection and a few issues which can be irritating. Barrel really feel is mediocre, however has uncommon shortstop energy. Does he really feel to hit lag behind as a result of he’s missed tine with damage, or is it simply dangerous?

David Wiers: Aidan Miller continues to be drawing walks and working, however any concern over the uptick in Ok%? Flirting with 30% in his second have a look at AA pitching.

Eric A Longenhagen: Not nervous but, he’s nonetheless only a child there.

Cynic: I’m an off-the-cuff seeking to get my fears eliminated right here, however studying the prospect studies on Anthony are making me sort of skeptical? The plate self-discipline stuff jogs my memory of Moncada (is he selective or simply really passive), the swing aircraft questions from the present FG 2025 report appear regarding? Is that this extra like a Moncada state of affairs right here the place wanting again it’ll be just like the crimson flags had been there, or is that this extra like Skenes the place all people will get nitpicked a bit and it gained’t be a difficulty within the bigs? Guess I’m simply asking for a vibe verify.

Eric A Longenhagen: Nitpicked as a result of he’s the highest man. We have now to elucidate why he isn’t Trout or Acuna or one thing like that. An excessive amount of lefty bat velocity to fret in regards to the little issues.

Mike: Patiently ready for the Crimson Sox prospect checklist. When is that slated in your schedule and any prospects you’re transferring up these rankings?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ending the orgs that practice in AZ (TEX, SD, SEA) then hitting the stretch in FL, the place I presently am scouting and laying monitor.

ceasar: Luke Dickerson… so sizzling proper now. What did you consider him coming into the draft? Tiny pattern, however mashing at Low A.

Eric A Longenhagen: Nonetheless assume right here’s a bit extra whiff versus elevated fastballs than I’m snug with. He’s a superb prospect, however I’m not able to hyperstuff him or something like that.

Jackie Daytona: Enjoyable article from the Athletic on Skenes trades….is Skenes for Horton / Shaw / Alcantara even?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lol wut?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maintain on lemme google this to see who wrote it

Eric A Longenhagen: Completely unsurprised

Bencle Mens: Fangraphs’ non-Eric prospect writers is likely to be essentially the most poached place in baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a double-edged sword for positive, and the following two months will likely be painful on your boy, however truthfully in need of cloning myself that is sure to occur if Meg and I are doing our jobs and including good folks. And we’re glad, we’d each fairly act as a springboard for folks’s goals, ya know?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s solely Meg and I who *can’t* be poached for the practice to maintain rolling, we principally have our personal language at this level.

Mastodon Zimmer: Is Franklin Arias nonetheless a 35+ prospect?  His batting line actually appears to be like good since being promoted, and by all accounts is a legit shortstop.

Eric A Longenhagen: No, he’s a dude, my report is outdated from final cycle and can quickly change.

Fish: What do you assume brought about everybody (I keep in mind you at one level had him simply exterior high 100) to drastically overrate Berry? He’s struggled to even be a median hitter the previous couple of years

Eric A Longenhagen: overvaluing SEC efficiency at first of a juiced bat period. Bat velocity was by no means there.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m glad to have moved off him shortly (identical with Condon, I’m betting, although his points are completely different) however clearly if I’m working a draft room that’s no bueno.

Eric A Longenhagen: Has a shot, his swing makes me chew my lip

David: Ideas on Adrian Del Castillo? Is he blocked, or does he hit sufficient to alter positions?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pavin is hitting, too

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everybody, buen preguntas once more this week. I’m gonna go so I can deal with this recreation as I solely have a pair extra days out right here. Mets and Marlins have good arms down right here and I’m glad to have spent the time, regardless of how a lot I’m sweating by way of my shirts. Due to the couple of you who’ve seen me out within the wild the final little bit and mentioned what’s up. Padres and Rangers lists are subsequent, then Seatle. Discuss to y’all subsequent week.