Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/22/25

Dan Szymborski: Chat time chat time, one thing that rhymes with chat time

Dan Szymborski: lime!

Dan Szymborski: slime!

Dan Szymborski: grime!

Dan Szymborski: splat chime!

Dan Szymborski: fats dime!

Visitor: When you might ‘relegate’ one MLB franchise, UK soccer-style, and ‘promote’ a minor-league metropolis into MLB, which cities would you select?

Dan Szymborski: relegate oakland/las vegas, promote Charlotte

Key Flaw: When you had been a hitter and needed to choose a share the place your strikouts would equal your walks, what what you choose? For optimum output or aesthetics? (past the outliers round 0% and 50%, although these can be fascinating…)

Dan Szymborski: Undecided output, however I don’t like standing round, so 1% walks and strikeouts

M: ideas on Parker Meadows? Contemplating stashing him, questioning when you’d favor him to any of Stowers, hays, Mullins or cowser?

Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided he’s clearly superior to them, just because harm and also you don’t realy get compensated for his defesne

GB: what % does Zips give Choose to win the triple crown?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t truly run it, however perhaps I’ll subsequent week!

Sodo Mojo: Did the Mariners wait too lengthy to commerce Harry Ford he doesn’t appear to have a path in Seattle with Cal entrenched and his prospect shine appears to have dimmed a bit within the final yr.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like he’s been terrible or something

Dan Szymborski: however there have been numerous questions, so I’m undecided ther was ever a giant profitable deal on the market for him

Matt VW: Each full MLB season since 2018 has featured a minimum of three 100-loss groups. From 2003-2017 there have been zero seasons with three or extra 100 loss groups. Is the current decrease ground only a blip, or is there an actual shift driving it?

Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided the technique about rebuilding has actually modified all tha tmuch

Bruce: What AAA hitting stats / qualities translate the very best to the large league degree?  Which of them “imply” the least?

Dan Szymborski: Usually, energy and aggression translate finest. Actually passive gamers (not numerous balsl in play, excessive stroll price) are likely to translate poorly, which ZiPS takes into consideration in translations

Billy Bob: Ought to the Mariners look so as to add a 1B, 3B or OF on the deadline or simply roll with what they’ve?

Dan Szymborski: I feel they ought to take a look at the bats accessible, but it surely’s exhausting to say EXACTLY what will likely be most important in two months

Dan Szymborski: When you choked a mime, would they make a sound? Or would they hold to the bit and solely movement that they’re choking?

4 fWAR: Per week in the past, solely Aaron Choose had made it to 4 fWAR. In the present day, solely Aaron Choose has 4 fWAR (now it’s 4.3)

Dan Szymborski: He’s a extremely good participant!

Wirefan: Is Zips shopping for into Trent Grisham’s early season success?  What number of PA’s when a man has a considerably established baseline are wanted for ZiPS to start out weighting a possible breakout?

Dan Szymborski: To an extent, ZiPS was by no means actually down on Grisham, so it’s not grumpy about his season

Dan Szymborski: However there’s no X PAs since a breakout isn’t a binary tihng. The bigger the breakout, the less the PAs wanted to see an actual long run change

Dan Szymborski: That’s why I’ve a bloated mess of algorithms to type by way of it!

Al: How worries are we about Yelich?

Dan Szymborski: mild-to-moderate

Dan Szymborski: “Have mild-to-moderate fear a few baseball participant? Ask your physician if Yipsazepam© is best for you!”

Involved Citizen: Expensive Mr. Fangraphs, There are too many projection methods these days. Please get rid of three. I’m not a crackpot.

Dan Szymborski: Ideally not ZiPS? I like shopping for stuff

v2micca: As a Braves fan, how involved ought to I be about Spencer Strider.  It wasn’t simply his velocity, however his breaking pitches lacked depth and chunk and his command appeared off.

Dan Szymborski: Now you want the drug to have moderate-to-severe baseball fear, Pennantotrol© (basebolanum tarate)

the one who asks the lunch query: What’s for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing at present!

Oaktown Blues: I think about you’ve seen a few of the Veo3 demos. Thrilling? Scary? Each?

Dan Szymborski: Horrifying, however fascinating.

Dan Szymborski: Change *is* scary, particularly harmful change. However I’m a believer that when change is coming, you have to do your finest to combine the adjustments, since adjustments can’t actually be stopped.

victoria: what’s the very best pop music of the 2020s?

Dan Szymborski: Now that I couldn’t reply. I wasn’t actually a pop music man at any level, however I’m getting sufficiently old that I’m not likely related with that little bit of tradition

Dan Szymborski: when you ask me about indie people rock or straight up indie rock or one thing, I’d be capable of reply, however I’ll most likely be biased in direction of bands that had cultural relevance 15 years in the past

Dan Szymborski: Like, I’d most likely say Fleet Foxes Can I Imagine You

Dan Szymborski: however I’m going to be 47 this month. I’m most likely nto the man to ask this stuff to, if I used to be ever

Ceddy B Prepared: NO! Extra projections please! MORE!

JB: Has Jackson Chourio’s profession outlook taken a success by the offensive profile we’ve seen since he’s been within the majors?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t assume it’ sa hit, his weakneses have at all times been well-known

Uncle Spike: When you get kidnapped by a bunch of mimes, they are going to do unspeakable issues to you.

Wirefan: Does ZIPs distinguish between caught trying Okay’s vs swinging?  Are caught trying Okay’s much less projectable?

Dan Szymborski: Sure. And it’s difficult

Bruce: I blended some basebolanum tarate with a glass of white wine, ended up having lunch with Pete Rose.  He ordered the costliest factor on the menu and skipped out on the invoice.

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: (sicne there was a Grampa Simpson factor earlier)

Your Title: Are there ‘actual’ park issue stats for Sacramento, Tampa, Baltimore but? How lengthy will it take to get a tough thought? That park in West Sac is trying like a bandbox

Dan Szymborski: There’s numerous noise in park elements, it takes a couple of years

Idiotic Failson: Is Semien similar to, unhealthy, now?

Dan Szymborski: I concern he’s. No less than now not a star

Brandon Pfaadt Fan Membership: Who’s your favourite participant who you’re positive is nice however hasn’t proved it but?

Dan Szymborski: Adley Rutschman 🙂

Dan Szymborski: or is {that a} 🙁

Bob Loblaw: Who comes out on high in a mascot Royal Rumble? Assured the rally monkey is the primary to go.

Dan Szymborski: Do the Mets get Grimace? I feel he’d win. Mr. Met is fairly high heavy if they’ve to make use of him, so I feel it’ dbe simple to get him over the ropes

Dan Szymborski: The Phanatic should have pretty low middle of gravity

Oaktown Blues: Making the yips drug a benzo is simply wise, good name

War2d2: The Cubs’ bullpen is nightmare-inducing. What, realistically, can they do at this level within the season? When you had been Jed would you name David Robertson, or do you assume a 40yo that’s been on the shelf for 1 / 4 of a season is a foul funding? (that was purported to be sarcastic however now I’m truly questioning)

Dan Szymborski: I’d actually name up David Robertson. You’ll be able to solely lose cash actually.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a below-average bullpen and prone to keep one of many groups weaknesses

Key Flaw: Center-aged Dude query: When you had to decide on between having a full head of hair that’s utterly grey or a head of vastly thinning, full-color hair (no dying, rogaine, or toupe), which might you select? It’s the traditional Steve Martin vs. Bruce Willis conundrum.

Dan Szymborski: I suppose the query is whether or not I’ve to get grey the colour or the pure shade that *my* hair adjustments

Dan Szymborski: I positively have a receding hairline (although not as a lot as you could assume as I’ve at all times had a little bit of a 5 or sixhead) and a thinning crown

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t had any of my hair hairs change from the marginally reddish darkish blonde/mild brown it’s been since my teenage years

Dan Szymborski: but when I don’t shave for awhile, I’ll begin getting vivid white hairs in my beard

Dan Szymborski: if I can have the snow white Donald Sutherland hair, I’m down with graying with a full head of hair, even what goes for a full head of hair for me

Dan Szymborski: if mousy grey, it’ sa nearer name

Mick Donfort: Any concepts on the way to repair the Rockies?

Dan Szymborski: Monforts keep far distant

Ceddy B Prepared: Look, don’t be ashamed. Simply say Taylor Swift’s Anti-Hero and transfer on from the pop songs.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually know the music. I do know Shake it Off as a result of that was taking part in in all places for a yr. And I do know I Knew You Had been Hassle primarily as a result of the nerdy reddit meme for some time of somebody mashing that bizarre Brotherman Invoice music with it

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: Identical to I do know Cooking By the E book due to the joke Lil Jon mashup

Johnny5Alive: Like I do know the media likes to overblow issues and the stats are nonetheless excellent (simply not what’s anticipated). Final night time appeared atrocious, struck out in first two at bats with out ever taking the bat off his shoulder. What’s up with Soto? Heel flip?

Dan Szymborski: Passiveness is an everlasting hazard for a extremely disciplined hitter

Visitor: Who can the Cubs commerce for on the deadline as a result of their nearer position remains to be in query?

Dan Szymborski: It REALLY depends upon who’s avaialble

Dan Szymborski: Like if the ERA is coming all the way down to the peripherals and the O’s are nonetheless far out of it, I feel they might commerce Cano

Oddball Herrera: I feel you go full head of graying hair 100% of the time. Not everybody has optimum head form for baldness, and with white/grey hair you at all times have the choice of going Full Gandalf

Ceddy B Prepared: Anti-Hero is a good storytelling pop music. It has Folksy pop vibes, particularly the acoustic model.

Dan Szymborski: I feel I’ve simply largely aged out of the style. Like, I’ve purchased a ton of albums within the 2020s, however they had been all bands I used to be listening to in 2000 to 2015

Dan Szymborski: like yeah, I’ll purchase a brand new decemberists or new pornographers album simply because one is out, however any particular person my age who isn’t already a fan most likely isn’t going to be

Lord Thunder: Will Max Muncy be on the Dodgers’ roster a yr from now?

Dan Szymborski: Sure

Dan Szymborski: until you imply the opposite one, which isn’t any

Dan Szymborski: (Need to be certain that no loophole)

Outdated guys: The Eovaldi article a couple of days in the past talked about analysis that guys who throw a number of totally different pitches in any depend outperform their stuff.  Can that assist clarify Sugano?

Dan Szymborski: It might, however we don’t have a TON of Sugano begins but

laughingstock: Are you planning to include the brand new bat-tracking stats into ZiPS in a roundabout way?

Dan Szymborski: In the event that they enhance the mannequin, I’ll add Oma’s spaetzle recipe

Oddball Herrera: These new swing path stats are neat however I’m wondering at their usefulness past IDing unfavourable deviations from what made a specific batter profitable. There are simply too some ways to efficiently pores and skin the batting cat…

Dan Szymborski: Now, I don’t *hurry* to include new issues. Lots of occasions, one thing new is basically being captured not directly

Dan Szymborski: And numerous occasions, the brand new factor is extra difficult than it seems to be

Taker55: Is it protected to say now that Vladdy wasn’t beating $500mm on the open market this winter?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t consider he was going to, even with no moderately meh begin

Dan Szymborski: I feel the Blue Jays appeared on the abyss and thought of attempting to re-sign and lacking out *once more* on a man they wish to pay quite a bit o fmoney to

Taker55: Each 2026 FA checklist appears to love Stop over Michael King and I simply don’t see it. Who would you moderately signal long run?

Dan Szymborski: Weirdly, I feel King

Dan Szymborski: Provided that beginning pitchers aren’t anticipated to go 7-8 innings a begin anymore

Dan Szymborski: I feel maintaining pitchers relievers for some time after which transferring them to the rotation goes to be a continued factor

Dave: I completely hate the narrative that Juan Soto isn’t price it.. Studies like he’s gained an excessive amount of weight, he doesn’t prefer it New York make me mad. He’s nonetheless an above common hitter regardless of him going by way of a stoop. This man will possible be 150 WRC+ for years to return

Dan Szymborski: There’s actually no cause to get mad. The Mets and Soto are tied for all times, so it ought to at all times be about what makes him higher

I’m the Apple: Felix Hernandez has a borderline HoF case as a starter. What would ZiPS mission his profession WAR to be as a reliever? Would he nonetheless have been a borderline HoF pitcher, or would it not have been a neater sure or simpler no?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not even constructive that he misses on peak. I’m going to have to contemplate it this fall

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t projected him as a reliever psecifically

Visitor: Higher hitter. Agustin Ramirez or Drake Baldwin.

Dan Szymborski: I feel purely as a hitter, Ramirez ha the upper upside

Visitor: who could have extra 2026 battle, A Barger or LAD Muncy

Dan Szymborski: Quebec

Dan Szymborski: Oh wait, I simply thought the reply to the final Q and didn’t truly sort it

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, I neglect how communication works someday

Dan Szymborski: I feel Muncy. Barger’s truly been stable this yr, however I’m undecided stable sufficient that he grabs a job

Dan Szymborski: if the Dodgers tire of Muncy, he’ll find yourself a platoon DH someplace and get good taking part in time that manner

Visitor: The place would you rank xwOBA general as an evaluator of a hitter?

Dan Szymborski: These numbers are all stable, however one has to keep in mind that the longer a participant outperforms/underperforms these measures, the extra possible there’s a deviation in talent from the mannequin

Eric: What’s extra possible, Conforto recovering from his putrid begin, him persevering with to scuffle however staying in his spot, or him scuffling and being changed on the commerce deadline?

Dan Szymborski: I feel at this stage, he’s largely a stopgap starter/fourth outfielder. It’s been a very long time since he was *good*

Dan Szymborski: I imply, he hit SOME final yr, however he higher since he doesn’t actually have any defensive worth

AB: Sensible choice however imo exhausting to beat the Mollusk

Bouncy Bouncy: What’s up with Christian Walker? Is he gonna flip it round with all these okay’s?

Dan Szymborski: Him I’m cautiously optimistic about. His contact price isn’t all that totally different than his profession and he’s nonetheless hitting issues exhausting

AB: Roengardner child for actual? He’s throwing 100+

Dan Szymborski: Harm susceptible

Benny Agbayani: Juan Soto has an .803 OPS subsequent to his nearly all pink Baseball Savant rankings. That is nothing, proper?

Dan Szymborski: In all probability

Yordone: I’m dropping religion within the Astro’s transparency w/re accidents. O/U variety of fingers presently hooked up to Yordan’s physique: +/- 1.5?

O’s Woes: O’s received final night time, so… mounted? Can they do sufficient to compete this yr? Ought to they?

Dan Szymborski: They CAN, however they really want to have a loopy tear quickly

Dan Szymborski: The mathematics is basically unhealthy

Visitor: what if the distinction within the RoS model and the UPD model?

Dan Szymborski: RoS is remainder of season up to date projection

Dan Szymborski: Replace is the RoS added to wha’s already banked

Rudy Waltz: How unhealthy is the Bryan Reynolds contract going to search for the Pirates by the top of the yr?

Dan Szymborski: Fairly unhealthy because it seems to be so now

Dan Szymborski: and the Pirates are going to make use of it as an excuse to not spend on gamers

Dan Szymborski: Nicely, a further one in every of course

John Paul: There isn’t any manner Skenes get traded proper?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t assume there may be any manner he will get traded this yera

Taker55: What’s your confidence degree on Mike Elias constructing a pitching pipeline?

Dan Szymborski: It’s…unstable

Taker55: Ought to we be trying extra at these 190+ pitch begins that Sasaki threw in highschool ? It’s not seeming like that is going to have a cheerful ending

Dan Szymborski: I feel numerous the harm finished to pitchers is pre-professional harm that’s lurking

J: Not that it will ever occur however with the Skenes commerce discuss I used to be excited about how the Crimson Sox could be the one group that matches up with the Pirates in a manner that would work for each side. What do you consider Wilyer, Kristian, Roman and Marcello, for Skenes?

Dan Szymborski: It’s actually exhausting to commerce for Skenes for the easy truth {that a} honest commerce for Skenes goes to be an absurd transferring of expertise

Dan Szymborski: I really like Skenes, however I moderately have these 4 that Skenes, even when we assumed for the sake of argument, that their anticipated worth is strictly equal

Dan Szymborski: I’m simply not a put all my eggs in a single basket sort of man, particularly when it’s a PITCHER

Isaac Paredes: I can’t think about what you imply by “the longer a participant outperforms/underperforms these measures, the extra possible there’s a deviation in talent from the mannequin”

Dan Szymborski: heh

Dan Szymborski: I ought to notice that ZiPS is conscious, which is why it was increased on Paredes this yr than most!

Visitor: “The mathematics is basically unhealthy” the mathematics is ok, the implications for baltimore’s probabilities… not so nice /pedantry

Henry Dodger: Colorado is on tempo for 26 wins. That may’t occur, can it? CAN IT???

Dan Szymborski: It might. They’ve been so awful that they may play higher ball, nearer to their expertise degree, and nonetheless beat the white sox

Coolidge: I want fiscal conservatives nonetheless, , existed.

Dan Szymborski: So do I

Ceddy B Prepared: I wish to develop a projection system referred to as UMPYASS. Which is principally what occurs when OOPSY and Jonah Hill make chili inside a materialized view.

Visitor: Necessary cat replace!

Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia is sleeping in her cave. Justianian is sleeping on my workplace sofa as he normally is that this time of day

Dan Szymborski: final I noticed Constantine, he was asleep on my half-build PC

Dan Szymborski: Undecided what Mercutio’s as much as. Final I noticed he was hanging out within the Pentapus. He’s doing effectively as he acquired his month-to-month arthritis quick earlier this week

Dan Szymborski: He’s not going to be comfortable when he begins on kidney meals subsequent week. On his senior blood panel (he’ll be 17 in August), the SDMA check suggests very early kidney points, so I’m beginning him on the weight loss plan instantly.

Lord Thunder: When would you name up Bubba Chandler?

Dan Szymborski: Now

Defensively Challenged: Jackson Holliday is swiftly the best WAR man age 21 or youthful this season. It appears to be actually his protection holding him again proper now. Is it that unhealthy, or simply unstable numbers at this level?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not fearful about it but. It’s not like he’s Hanley Ramirez on the market

Dan Szymborski: he’s younger and he superior by way of minors in a short time

Visitor: Can somebody give me the numbers on the final 5 video games of the braves hitting Righties

Dan Szymborski: Guys, we have now the splits leaderboard RIGHT THERE for you!

Dan Szymborski: 309/378/423, wRC+ of 125

Dan Szymborski: YOu dont’ even should be a member to make use of it!

Dan Szymborski: (I don’t assume)

Visitor: What occurred to MATT DAMON?

Dan Szymborski: Ben Affleck acquired his personal sofa

Ceddy B Prepared: I’m the designated fool on the bar trivia group that listens to new music. My style is eclectic sufficient to not lose my thoughts each time Ariana Grande squeaks one thing out into the world.

AB: who do you see in World Collection this yr?

Dan Szymborski: baseball groups presumably

Dan Szymborski: I’m considering Tigers/Doders

Dan Szymborski: Dodgers

AB: And don’t sleep on white pepper!

AB:

• we’re displaying our age lol

Dan Szymborski: I miss being one of many younger analytics guys

Dan Szymborski: Dave Cameron and I had been each youngsters within the usent days

Dan Szymborski: usenet

Dan Szymborski: How am I just some years from being 50? I personal three pairs of footwear and I’m undecided the place I put my one tie

baseball fan: which prospect has widest hole between median final result and eightieth percentile final result?

Dan Szymborski: Possibly somebody like Quinn mathews?

Jeremy: Does ZiPS consider that Mick Abel abruptly has good command?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS doesn’t

Visitor: Dan, there was a reddit submit a couple of days in the past suggesting that after the WAR swap to XBR sure performs (i.e. the hustle double) could also be overcounted. Any new ideas on this?

Dan Szymborski: I adopted up on that submit! David’s going to speak to Tango about the easiest way to unwind any double counting

Ceddy B Prepared: Dude, don’t give away all of the 47 yr outdated secrets and techniques! I’ve 4 pairs of footwear.

Key Flaw: You say you play piano and another band-type brass. When you might select two different devices to know the way to play (immediately downloaded like on the matrix), which of them would you choose (one needs to be a non-weird one)?

Dan Szymborski: Guitar and violin

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been taking part in piano for greater than 40 years

Dan Szymborski: I can credibly play the bigger brass devices (tuba, euphonium, trombone) and I’m satisfactory with trumpet

Dan Szymborski: And I can play clarinet and oboe, and I like taking part in alongside to vivaldi concertos on my boxwood tenor recorder

Dan Szymborski: however I don’t play any of violin/cello/viola/bass or guitar, so it will be interestingi and totally different from the issues I usually play

Dan Szymborski: my buddy Mike’s dad has crafted violins for 40 years, however he sells them for 15-20K a chunk and I most likely can’t get THAT A lot of a reduction

Ceddy B Prepared: “I’m Dan! I’ve many skills. Take a look at me! Look AT me!”

That’s what you sound like, Expertise Boy.

Dan Szymborski: I like taking part in music!

Visitor: the place/how’d you retain up with all these devices? i performed clarinet in eighth grade

Dan Szymborski: I work at home and have at all times been musical

Dan Szymborski: I by no means had the skillset that taking part in professionally would have been a factor; these persons are SUPER proficient

Idiotic Failson: I went to my child’s band live performance final night time and now I think about you sitting up there taking part in Imperial March

Visitor: is it protected to imagine that Steamer use the identical course of for RoS and UPD?

Dan Szymborski: if definitionally then sure

Dan Szymborski: clearly the method is totally different

Ceddy B Prepared: I discovered bass guitar when in was a teen. I used to be so unhealthy that my girlfriend on the time provided to pay for the promenade limo if I might simply cease. That was a candy $100 I saved.

KC Ache: Do you assume KC makes SOME form of transfer for OF assist or are they actually pinning all of it on present OF + Jac?

Dan Szymborski: I feel in the event that they had been severe a few transfer, they might have finished it final offseason. GOing into the season with melendez/renfroe as beginning corners was malpractice

Dan Szymborski: Oh, there are a couple of questions on what a pentapus is

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: That’s Justinian, AKA Physician Pentapus

Key Flaw: Oh the Imperial March, that will positively be my walkup music. Did Harrison Bader ever use that? Has anybody? (even when it’s a ripoff of Mars, it’s an all-time nice)

Dan Szymborski: nto numerous orchestral stroll up music

Dan Szymborski: I’d use the beginning of the second motion of Prokofiev’s Scythian Suite as my walkup music

Dan Szymborski:

Idiotic Failson: No manner I’m clicking on a hyperlink referred to as ‘pentapus’. Good strive, HR.

War2d2: Private feeling is that Imperial March would work higher as a better’s entrance music.

Dan Szymborski: I feel the issue with that’s the Empire misplaced within the closing act

Dan Szymborski: That’s inauspicious for a better

buffy, the umpire slayer: thanks on the ROS & UPD explanations. How typically do you replace the RoS?

Key Flaw: The Scythian Suite appears like battle music for EU4! I’m able to invade Anatolia now

Dan Szymborski: The less complicated in-season mannequin is up to date each morning routinely

Dan Szymborski: What I name “full fats” ZiPS is batch-run in the course of each month, and at any time when else I wish to do it for a selected article I’m engaged on, if want be

Dan Szymborski: To totally run ZiPS takes slightly over a day for 2 PCs working concurrently

v: Does it trouble you as a lot because it bothers me that MLB calls automated doubles “ground-rule doubles” on gameday? They’re various things!

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t consider that!

Dan Szymborski: On that notice, it’s time for me to depart

Dan Szymborski: thanks all for coming! and see you subsequent time

Visitor: “To totally run ZiPS takes slightly over a day for 2 PCs working concurrently”
can’t you simply let the man who got here up with it run it? ; p

Dan Szymborski: there’s no energy within the oubliette