Rutgers star Ace Bailey is not one of the best participant within the 2025 NBA Draft. That distinction would go to Duke’s Cooper Flagg — the projected No. 1 general decide in subsequent month’s draft. Bailey is not even one of the best draft prospect from his personal school group. Dylan Harper, Bailey’s former five-star teammate at Rutgers, is anticipated to be chosen after Flagg to the San Antonio Spurs with the No. 2 general decide.
Bailey’s general sport has been a sizzling matter because the fall when he started his school profession at Rutgers as one of many program’s most extremely touted recruits alongside Harper. Regardless of having Harper and Bailey, Rutgers will make historical past this summer time as the primary school group to overlook the NCAA Event with two top-five prospects on the roster.
To be blunt, Bailey is probably the most polarizing participant within the draft, with a large spectrum of takes about his sport sprinkled in between. Some say Bailey is the following Kevin Durant, whereas different pundits consider he has the very best probability to not reside as much as his predraft hype.
2025 NBA Mock Draft: Cooper Flagg goes No. 1 to Mavericks, Duke teammate Kon Knueppel strikes into high 5
Cameron Salerno
Bailey’s upside is enamouring. He is a talented shotmaker able to making pictures uncontested from 20 ft away or hitting a turnaround fadeaway close to the basket with a number of defenders surrounding him. His ceiling on draft evening will begin with the Philadelphia 76ers with decide No. 3, nevertheless it’s exhausting to see him falling previous the Washington Wizards at No. 6.
Probably the most polarizing prospect from the final draft cycle was Purdue star massive man Zach Edey for various causes. Some thought Edey can be a late first-round decide, whereas others, such because the Memphis Grizzlies, believed he was worthy of a top-10 choice. Scouts, NBA choice makers, media members and NBA/school basketball followers have been break up on what Edey may very well be on the subsequent stage. Edey was one of the crucial dominant school basketball gamers of the fashionable period, however the predraft issues about how his abilities translated to the following stage have been legitimate.
Bailey has the potential to be a famous person within the NBA. When you’re curious why he’s such a polarizing draft prospect or how he would possibly match on groups selecting within the early portion of the draft, we’ll reply these questions under.
Bailey’s upside is among the many greatest within the class
Discovering good draft comparisons for upcoming draft prospects is usually a headache. The comparability that got here to thoughts once I first watched Bailey play earlier than he enrolled at Rutgers final fall was Denver Nuggets ahead Michael Porter Jr. Each gamers are terrific shotmakers.
Bailey had a extra achieved (quick) school profession than Porter. While you take a look at the story of the tape, their anthropometric knowledge is analogous.
| Measurement | Michael Porter Jr. | Ace Bailey |
| Peak (No Footwear) | 6-9.5″ | 6-7.5 |
| Weight | 211 lbs | 202.8 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7-0.25 | 7-0.5 |
| Standing Attain | 9-0.5 | 8-11 |
Porter performed simply three video games through the 2017-18 school season attributable to damage. Porter was a projected top-three decide popping out of highschool, however fell to the tip of the lottery at decide No. 14 on draft evening attributable to damage issues. Porter has averaged 16.2 factors and 6.4 rebounds throughout his six-year NBA profession so far.
Bailey is usually a prolific scorer on the subsequent stage. That is what NBA choice makers will purchase into to make him a top-five decide. His shot food plan at Rutgers was questionable at instances, however he did handle to make a few of the toughest-looking jumpers possible.
“The pictures I work on in exercises are pictures I do within the sport,” Bailey informed reporters through the NBA Draft Mix this week. “What is likely to be a nasty shot to you, you do not work on it. I work on it.”
Per Synergy, Bailey tried 81 guarded jumpers this previous season. He made 39 of 81 (48.1%) of these makes an attempt. On unguarded jumpers, Bailey shot 10 of 33 (30.3%). His shot choice principally got here from the midrange, as 62.5% of his area objective makes an attempt have been jumpers.
Bailey measured shorter than anticipated
Bailey was listed at 6-foot-10 on his official bio web page at Rutgers. On the NBA Draft Mix earlier this week, Bailey measured 6-7.5 with out footwear. There have been issues that Bailey would measure shorter than anticipated, and that is what got here to fruition.
As my colleague Kyle Boone wrote from the NBA Draft Mix in Chicago earlier this week, a number of people shared the identical sentiment that he would come up quick when it was time to be measured.
2025 NBA Draft Mix measurements: Cooper Flagg reaches new top; Ace Bailey comes up quick
Kyle Boone
I do not assume his measurement will trigger him to drop. Outdoors of Flagg and Harper, Nos. 3-10 within the draft are extensive open. Final 12 months’s draft class was stuffed with uncertainty all through. This 12 months, it is going to begin when the 76ers get on the clock at decide No. 3. Extra on that later.
Group success lacked throughout his time at Rutgers
As I wrote earlier this spring, Rutgers fumbled its most gifted roster in program historical past. It isn’t unusual for a projected top-five decide to by no means play within the NCAA Event as a result of their respective group is dangerous. That is occurred a number of instances over the past 10 years. However for 2 potential top-three picks to go 15-17 general and miss out on the NCAA Event fully? That is by no means occurred.
Ten groups within the trendy recruiting period have landed two highschool prospects ranked within the high 5 of their respective class. 9 of these squads reached the NCAA Event (Duke’s 2024-25 group is the opposite).
Bailey and Harper have been each implausible individually, and their draft inventory held agency regardless of the group’s lack of success. Will these issues loom over on draft evening? Possibly, however in all probability not. Harper is sort of assured to go No. 2, and it will be a shock if Bailey falls drastically on draft evening.
Ideas on how Bailey suits on lottery groups
Bailey’s draft vary needs to be between picks No. 3 and 6 on draft evening. His ceiling begins at No. 3 with the 76ers, and it is exhausting to see him falling previous the Wizards. Listed below are some ideas on how Bailey would slot in with these potential groups.
No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers
In my newest mock draft, I had Bailey going No. 3 to the 76ers. A group with a number of All-Stars on the roster hardly ever will get to select on the high of the draft, however that is precisely what occurred.
Out of all of the groups listed right here, Bailey going to the 76ers can be an excellent match to contribute to profitable instantly. Bailey will not really feel the stress to attain in bunches like he needed to do at Rutgers this previous season. There’s a probability he does not even crack the beginning lineup on opening evening. The 76ers can go in a number of instructions, however this may very well be the proper marriage.
No. 4 Charlotte Hornets
I would not blame the Hornets for taking the potential greatest participant on the board at this spot, however this is able to be an odd match for each events. Charlotte‘s best want is a defensive-minded guard who can play off-ball subsequent to LaMelo Ball. The participant that matches that description completely is Baylor‘s VJ Edgecombe, not Bailey.
I may see this match working long-term if the Hornets slide Brandon Miller to SG. You might insert Bailey into the beginning lineup because the SF and play him and Miller subsequent to Ball. This plan may very well be thrown out the window if the Hornets ultimately commerce Ball, however Edgecombe makes extra sense right here than Bailey.
No. 5 Utah Jazz
The Jazz have been hoping to win the Flagg sweepstakes. That plan has been thrown out the window after dropping from the potential No. 1 decide all the best way again to No. 5. There’s nonetheless a path for the Jazz to safe a franchise-altering participant right here, and if Bailey is on the market, Utah ought to decide him and work out the long-term match later.
Utah simply paid massive cash to Lauri Markkanen this previous offseason. He will probably be commerce eligible this summer time, but when Utah did not deal him final 12 months when Markkanen’s worth was at its peak and his contract was a lot smaller, why would they do it now? The Jazz have a crowded frontcourt with Markkanen, John Collins, Kyle Filipowski and Walker Kessler. You’ll assume at the least a kind of gamers will not be on the roster subsequent season. The underside line? Utah wants expertise. Bailey suits that invoice.
No. 6 Washington Wizards
Washington did issues the proper approach on the finish of the season. I wrote earlier this month that out of all of the groups within the lottery, the Wizards have been probably the most deserving to win the draft lottery and safe the companies of Flagg. Clearly, that did not occur, however Bailey may nonetheless be in play at No. 6 — relying on what the opposite groups in entrance of Washington do on draft evening.
Much like Utah, Washington wants expertise on its roster. Alex Sarr goes to be an excellent defender within the NBA. You’ll be able to say the identical about Bilal Coulibaly, somebody I am very bullish on. Outdoors of the 76ers, Bailey to Washington is likely to be my second-favorite match on this checklist. There is a blissful medium for him to go to a group the place he can get his shot off whereas being a part of a franchise that may very well be on the rise within the coming years.