Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/15/25

Dan Szymborski: Ah, we meet once more, Fangraphiers!

M: Higher stash? Cowser or Meadows?

Dan Szymborski: Cowser, I feel. You’re not rewarded for the very best stuff Parker Meadows does!

.330/50: I appeared it up on stat muse, and, weirdly, there are seven seasons the place a participant hit 50+ hr with a .349+ BA. And there are seven the place a participant hit 50+ with a .329+ BA. Barry in 01 was at .328 and certainly one of Foxx’s two largest years was .349. So… I do know Zips doesn’t assume AJ can hold THIS up, however given he’s been hitting like .370 for greater than a 12 months now, the place would you rank the season all time if he “slumps” to complete the 12 months at like a .335/.440/.712 with 50+ (once more, measurably worse than he has been over the previous 12 months)? To me it could mainly simply be Barry and his particular sauce since growth forward of it.

Dan Szymborski: I can’t give a precise rating off-hand, nevertheless it’s a fully monster season, and I feel it could cement his standing as a Sandy Koufax-esque Corridor of Famer if one thing unhealthy occurred.

Dan Szymborski: I might personally argue he’s already at that stage, however I strongly suspect I’m rather more prepared to vote for a dizzying-peak/shortish profession man than most writers are

AL Solely: Keeper league. Received provided Pasquatino ($33) and Barger (NA) for Mize ($8). I would like hitting. Have Logan Gilbert, Hunter Brown, Pepiot, Bassit, Littell. Do I’ve sufficient pitching to cowl and would you do deal?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, is that this a $260 league? That’s actually a greenback determine for Pasquantino

Dan Szymborski: With Logan Gilbert nonetheless in rehab, I’m unsure you may have sufficient pitching.

Dan Szymborski: Actually not sufficient for a commerce that wants stuff to work out properly so that you can get what you need in return

Pete: Hello Dan – who do you want higher for the remainder of the season – Cade Horton or Logan Henderson?

Dan Szymborski: Henderson I feel.

Damaged Bat: Zips has Roman Anthony with 336 at bats. Does this projection appear proper, or if he’s referred to as up quickly, conservative? Does the 336 point out Zips noticed a perhaps late June name up date?

Dan Szymborski: Keep in mind, ZiPS is mainly agnostic about the place a participant will get his enjoying time!

Damaged Bat: Who’re the highest 5 SP at the moment in MILB that Zips like essentially the most for subsequent 2-3 years per forecast?

Dan Szymborski: I’m assuming you’re not going to let me get away with MLB pitchers on rehab?

Dan Szymborski: If we’re simply brief time period, Zebby Matthews, Quinn Mathews, and Bubba Chandler

Matt: Hey Dan, what does the Cub’s beginning rotation appear to be on August 1?

Dan Szymborski: There’s an entire lotta stuff that may occur!

Rube: Are you able to give an instance of the way you view baseball by means of a Bayesian lens?

Dan Szymborski: Hmm, I’m not fairly certain learn how to verbalize such a factor!

Dan Szymborski: I assume on some stage, after I see an occasion, there’s part of me that asks “how does this make me really feel just like the state of affairs modified?”

bringbackpologrounds: What ought to a Masyn Winn extension appear to be, and do you assume STL will get it performed?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually assume they’re going to maneuver on something proper now with the GM future nonetheless kinda in limbo

Nick: Have I missed your AI listing of workforce mottos for 2024-2025, or did you cease producing them? These at all times made me snigger

Dan Szymborski: Everybody began utilizing textual content AI so it was so much much less enjoyable.

Dan Szymborski: I used to be doing old style GPT-3 and coaching it myself on current mottos

Dan Szymborski: nevertheless it’s much less enjoyable now and extra more likely to simply piss individuals off. So I solely actually use it for particular issues that amuse me

RH: If I recall accurately, not solely does Could have Ides (each month does) however it’s certainly one of 4 the place it falls on the fifteenth.

bringbackpologrounds: Geraldo Perdomo is signed for $11 million per 12 months from 26-29. Will this be the most important discount in baseball?

Dan Szymborski: The most important discount in baseball is nearly at all times going to be a celebrity not fairly at two years of service time

Glorbus: The White Sox are 4-1 for the reason that Sox Pope was elected. How do you account for a workforce gaining the Mandate of Heaven in FanGraph’s playoffs odds?

Dan Szymborski: heh

BAJ: Have you learnt Decide’s 99% zWAR?

Dan Szymborski: All of the WAR

Lninefingers: Do you assume Detroit runs away with the AL Central?

Dan Szymborski: Runs away? No, they’ll come again a bit. However they’re in all probability the very best constructed workforce within the division proper now

Wrights_Back: Is what the Mets are doing with their pitching workers a revolution, talent, or luck?  Eg, save $20 Mn on a entrance line pitcher and put the financial savings right into a Griffin Canning and a bunch of expertise?  
Associated query:  is the WAR variability of a pitcher larger than a place participant (mainly by means of damage) to make the technique behind roster building totally different (I’m you, Dodgers, with about 1,000,000 pitchers on the DL).

Dan Szymborski: Talent and luck are intertwined! You will be the luckiest SOB on the planet, however you want talent to place your self ready to leverage that luck.

Kip: At this level, is it secure to say Matt Olson’s nice 2023 was largely because of the juiced baseballs?

Dan Szymborski: That’s too aggressive a conclusion

Dan Szymborski: You can even say he was a man who already had three 30-homer seasons having his peak 12 months

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Good after morning Dan. FINALLY began enjoying FF XV and uh…its sooooo baaaad. The primary message that pops up earlier than the title display screen: “A recreation for followers and newcomers”. Yeah no. You get a automobile that you may’t drive off roadways (at the least not 10 hours in), it’s set in like, a fever imaginative and prescient of Elivis’ America (WHY?) and there are ineffective minimize scenes whenever you FUEL YOUR CAR….that you may’t even absolutely management. It’s insane to me that Sq. made one thing like FF6 (certainly one of their masterpieces) in 1994 that’s simply so significantly better – and even evaluating it to nIER Automata which was developed alongside facet it….

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually thoughts Last Fantasy XV, nevertheless it’s positively certainly one of my least favourite of the collection.

Dan Szymborski: I like old style JRPGs, so I’m not tremendous loopy about the place the collection is.

Dan Szymborski: I’m far more excited at a brand new Falcom RPG than a brand new Sq. one as of late

Dan Szymborski: (Although I’m all for a IX remaster like VII obtained!)

wheelhouse: goldschmidt actual? at minimal, looks like he can cling on for some time longer if a workforce is prepared to soft-platoon him in opposition to harder rhp

Dan Szymborski: Eh, there’s a lotta BABIP in there. Even giving him the next one from his historical past, there’s loads of helium

Mike Fichera: It seems to me that the Mets GM/PBO – Stearns model of moneyball is run prevention. He has targeted on contact groundball pitchers since he arrived (juiced ball doesn’t harm them if it occurs) Mets have allowed the fewest runs within the league. He has proven a willingness to expire somebody who hits .180 however performs centerfield (Siri at first, now Taylor)- as an RBI and a run prevented are weighted a bit extra evenly on this entrance workplace. Is the pattern setting or simply good execution of a recognized addage?

Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure it’s a pattern however he makes use of what he has available properly.

Visitor: What’s your routine to maintain updated on baseball happenings (scores, stats, tales, and so forth.)?

Dan Szymborski: Principally chaos

Dan Szymborski: I don’t are inclined to do issues in an orderly trend

bk: So what’s up with the orioles?

Dan Szymborski: The pitching sucks and the hitting appears to need to suck out of solidarity

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Principally asking as a result of fantasy: Is Marcus Semien cooked? Looks like he could be beginning the decline section of his profession, at the least on the dish.

Dan Szymborski: I used to be already anxious within the spring sufficient for him to be in my busts article, and 2025 actually hasn’t modified my thoughts

Kapman: Who’s going to be introduced up first: Marcelo Mayer or Roman Anthony? And the way do you view that timeline?

Dan Szymborski: I are inclined to assume Anthony becuase I feel they will juggle their defensive alignment extra simply to get enjoying time

Dan Szymborski: I’ll say midseason

Lord Thunder: Will the O’s end at .500 or above this season?

Dan Szymborski: I feel no. They mainly should play nearly at 90+ win tempo to get to .500 now.

Dan Szymborski: So it’s POSSIBLE, nevertheless it’s nto the way in which to wager

Speeding it: For the reason that Dodgers have a fairly good DH and a fairly strong catcher, the place are they anticipating Speeding to play? If I’ve Smith at C, ought to I be anxious about PT (I even have Ohtani, however…)

Dan Szymborski: They haven’t given him a lot OF this season, nevertheless it’s additionally the logical place for him to play aside from C

Dan Szymborski: 1B/DH is kinda awkward since you may have Freeman and Ohtani there

Dan Szymborski: I can’t think about they received’t give him extra PAs than they squeezed out for Barnes

Dan Szymborski: and it could be loopy to curtail Will Smith enjoying time aside from attempting to maintain him brisker

Dan Szymborski: and the Dodgers aern’t loopy

Ampersand: Caught trolling the waiver wire for a second baseman in my redraft league. How would you rank Cronenworth, D Moore, Schneemann, Norby?

Dan Szymborski: I feel the primary two are shut and the second two are shut to one another, however clearly behind

Dan Szymborski: Cronenworth is a meh defensive 2B, however you don’t should take the hit

Visitor: do you mow your personal garden, or have a service do it?

Dan Szymborski: service

Dan Szymborski: They minimize each two weeks and spray for weeds. I feel I pay $80-something, nevertheless it’s robotically paid so I don’t pay an excessive amount of consideration

Dan Szymborski: I don’t want my garden tremendous brief, simply sufficient that the neighbors don’t complain. And I positively don’t need to do it myself as a result of seasonal allergic reactions

From the Mt Washington Mild rail cease: It’s time for the O’s to punt their season now, proper? I half anticipated Hyde to lose his job final night time after being swept within the double header. Don’t know what else there may be so as to add proper now, and tho i perceive Kjerstad and Mayo have been fairly unhealthy within the bigs, there actually is not any level in having older, decrease ceiling stage gamers play forward of them, no?

Dan Szymborski: Not essentially punt, however something they try this helps 2025 higher assist 2026-2028

Dan Szymborski: I’ve spent loads of time the place you’re!

Dan Szymborski: The Mt. Washington cease is the place I’d at all times go to video games with my grandfather when Camden opened

Dan Szymborski: since he lived close by

Dan Szymborski: And I’ve been to Mt. Washington Tavern a billion instances

Visitor: similar query to your topiary backyard– do you keep it or have your grounds crew handle it

Dan Szymborski: Ha, I’ve a garden and a few timber

Dan Szymborski: and a few bushes that DO NOT flower.

Dan Szymborski: and a little bit Japanese maple close to the door.

Dan Szymborski: As Jim Gaffigan says, I’m “indoorsy”

Austin D.: Do you assume we’ll ever see a participant like “Digital camera Eye” Max Bishop ever once more? Somebody with a watch so good that their batting common and ISO will be decrease than common and so they’re nonetheless a web optimistic?

Dan Szymborski: I feel it’s tough as pitchers are simply higher at present, particularly on the low finish

Visitor: A wizard has granted you entry to the fangraphs leaderboards on April 1, 2040. You’ll be able to’t obtain something and have 10 minutes to run no matter experiences / leaderboards you need. What are you doing with that 10 minutes?

Dan Szymborski: Taking footage wiht my telephone 🙂

Wi-fi Joe Jackson: It’s Could 15 and all of the AL wildcards are within the Central.  That is the ides you need to have been ware of!

James: Is Jackson Merrill an 80 FV in some unspecified time in the future? It’s his sophomore season and he’s already a bonafide 5 device CF.

Dan Szymborski: He has an argument for greatest CF in baseball. I feel {that a} severe greatest contender needs to be a now 80, no?

Dan Szymborski: Until it’s 1978 NL and the shortstops are Dave Concepcion and a bunch of fellows that answered a categorized advert to start out a profession in sports activities at present

Dan Szymborski: It’s hyperbole

Visitor: the actual ides are the plots we made alongside the way in which

Sidd F: JAke McCarthy has a .980 OPS in AAA Reno.  Will Arizona recall him, or is their OF simply too darn crowded.

Dan Szymborski: I feel he really is traded

Ethan: What are your ideas on Luis Robert Jr. and which groups(if any) ought to pursue him?

Dan Szymborski: He’s been unhealthy sufficient that he’s bordering on reclamation challenge greater than man you purchase to place in your contending lineup

Johnny5Alive: Re: dodgers how come they don’t get in hassle for IL manipulation. A pitcher has a foul begin? 15 day IL for soreness. The Mets obtained in hassle for 1 man and the dodgers do that yearly

Dan Szymborski: Given what number of of them find yourself needing vital surgical procedure, I’m unsure it’s manipulation

Dan Szymborski: Agreeing to lose 7 mph off your fastball or have shoulder surgical procedure is actual dedication to the con!

Wi-fi Joe Jackson: Performed Expedition 33 then?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve not but

Dan Szymborski: I’m at the moment enjoying by means of the machine translation of the Japanese model of Kai no Kiseki (Trails Past the Horizon)

Dan Szymborski: Then after I construct a PC, I need to end up Last Fantasy Rebirth

Damaged Bat: Orioles in BIG hassle. Let’s assume they see like no  hope by finish of June. Is Adley a bit based mostly upon status ( not final 6 months) that might carry them respectable return in the way in which of SP prospects wit their very own prospect catcher ready? Would Say Festa or Zebby together with Jax and a forty five prospect make sense for each?

Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure the O’s would commerce him THAT aggressively, however on this state of affairs, it shoudl be on the menu

Insert Witty Title Right here: Once we dream, it’s largely non-lucid. So how do we all know our waking life isn’t some sort of larger stage non-lucid dream of one other state of being? Additionally, we’re by no means getting good Aaron Nola again are we?

Dan Szymborski: We don’t essentially do. We don’t perceive existence absolutely.

Dan Szymborski: I want I weren’t so conscious in goals. I damage each good dream I’ve as a result of, even since I used to be a child, my goals at all times have me questioning the dream at some piont

Dan Szymborski: And I’ve means too many reasonable goals. Like if I’ve a process to do the following day, I’ll regularly merely dream about doing that process, and nothing dramatic or unlifelike occurs.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve had goals about writing a bit I used to be going to jot down the following day after which get up pissed as a result of I simply wrote it within the dream

Visitor: Views on Manfred’s Rose/SJJ determination?

Dan Szymborski:

Visitor: Should you had a HOF vote, would you vote for Rose?

Dan Szymborski: And in what looks like an odd follow-up, I’d vote sure. However I don’t assume I’ll have the chance because it seems he’ll undergo the Committee gauntlet, not be on the BBWAA poll

Dan Szymborski: (That is my tenth 12 months in BBWAA, so I vote this 12 months for Corridor)

Dan Szymborski: Rose grosses me out on many ranges, however I additionally imagine that the sportsmanship clause, based mostly on the historical past of the event of the foundations, strongly pertains to on-field manifestation of character.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have any dispute with individuals who really feel in a different way. I might have held my nostril and voted for Schilling, too.

Dan Szymborski: As *I* personally see it, I’m an professional in baseball in lots of facets, and absolutely certified to serve on an professional panel to guage most baseball issues. I’m not a scholar of ethics or morality, and I might be uneasy to serve on an professional panel about these items.

Dan Szymborski: The BBWAA has native votes and there’s a Good Man award, and I abstain from voting in that one in any respect, as I merely don’t imagine I’m certified to move such judgments.

Dan Szymborski: And once more, no dispute for you guys or anybody who feels in a different way. It’s a private philosophical determination.

MilwaukeeBeerJays: I like the Orioles off season pitching plan: “Hey name up Charlie Morton and stock-up on Bengay” Okay nice. Who else ought to we name? “What did I simply say?”

Speeding: MLBTR has an article up saying the Dodgers intend to make use of him solely has a backup catcher like a real understudy

Dan Szymborski: Actually? That strikes me as an odd

one other zip-locked thoughts: Hello Dan: considering of Pete Rose.  Has anybody confirmed that sliding head-first is a extra environment friendly strategy to take a base?

Dan Szymborski: Effectively, not first actually

Insert Witty Title Right here: Why hasn’t Hollywood performed a significant biopic of Washington? Contemplating he’s like the daddy of our nation, we get Hamilton and Lincoln (and W.) however not him?

Dan Szymborski: Becaue no one might do a greater character piece on George Washington than Brad Neely did in two minutes of music.

SDC: Is Gage Bounce nearly as good as he’s been enjoying or is he simply actually scorching out of the gate?

Dan Szymborski: He’s actually fascinating, however by no means fall in love with an A-ball pitcher

Dan Szymborski: He SHOULD be dominating in A-ball

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Have you ever ever heard of the band “Idles”? They’re a UK post-punk band. They go fairly exhausting within the paint. Try the music: “Grounds”.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve not, however I’ll test it out

Dream Dan: I feel I would like a trip

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Didn’t Mythbusters take a look at sliding head-first vs feet-first?

Dan Szymborski: Did they? I haven’t seen many episodes

Jeremy: Talking of immortalizing well-known individuals in music…What present ballplayer must be immortalized in music, a la Joltin’ Joe DiMaggio? And who ought to write and carry out stated music?

Dan Szymborski: I’m shocked there aren’t 50 J-Pop songs about Ohtani. However perhaps there are and I don’t know them

Dan Szymborski: And like a bluesy unhappy music concerning the White Sox or Rockies

Dan Szymborski: I’d like, tha tis

Dan Szymborski: that’s

Dan Szymborski: My favourite underrated music is Jonathan Coulton’s Kenesaw Mountain Landis

Seth Milchick: Dan, it appears like you could be reintegrating, along with your outie and innie’s consciousnesses merging…

Dan Szymborski: On that notice, it’s time for me to go off for one more week. Sorry for strict 1 PM cutoff, however I’ve radio to report.