Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 5/2/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning, everybody. I acquired my courvoisier proper right here, what appears to be your question?

Visitor: The Aces scratching Lawlar proper earlier than first pitch after which not giving a cause after the sport is nasty work.

Eric A Longenhagen: I didn’t see that, that’s enjoyable. He’s hit a ball more durable already this yr than he did in every of the final two seasons, there’s an actual probability he’s taken a leap.

Jeb: When does Bubba Chandler come up? Undecided there’s far more for him to show in AAA at this level. Most likely not Skenes degree good, however degree beneath good?

Eric A Longenhagen: If I needed to wager, I’d say he comes up late sufficient to retain rookie eligibility subsequent season.

bk: If Nimmala can maintain this degree of Ok price, how a lot does that enhance his prospect inventory?

Eric A Longenhagen: High 20 man if it holds

Mortons: Has Leo De Vries’ sizzling begin to the season modified your prospect grade on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Off hand I’d say no, however because the Padres org checklist creeps into view the following couple of weeks he’ll get a contemporary coast of paint. Underlying contact knowledge continues to be within the 40-grade hit instrument territory.

Justin: Konnor Griffin appears to have gotten off to a superb begin with the bat in his first season. If he continues this, does he shoot up the rankings and turn into a prime 20 prospect by finish of yr?

Eric A Longenhagen: The Ok’s want to return down for that. 30% is mucho

Jon: Ideas on Braylon Payne‘s sizzling begin? Nice method, clearly very tooled up, and younger for A ball. how would rank Made, Pena, and him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Made clearly in a category of his personal. Payne is tremendous fascinating however there’s plenty of swing and miss taking place, I’d probablty have him third, however I like all three gamers. Brewers and Cleveland lists are subsequent btw.

Sox fan: Any prospects which have impressed sufficient the place you’re already penciling them in in your subsequent prime 100?

Joe14: Ideas on Jorbit Vivas? Simply known as as much as exchange Jazz.

Eric A Longenhagen: Fringe 40-man kind, above alternative participant however not plenty of influence.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve tended to suppose Leap is a reliever, however yeah.

Ken: Gunnar Hoglund makes his MLB at the moment. Together with his elevated velocity this season, do you undertaking him as greater than a again of the rotation starter?

Sodo Mojo: Do you suppose Ben Williamson has taken a step ahead since your analysis final spring or is he nonetheless a 35+ grade with utility participant upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: You could possibly 40 him, it’s simply robust to go a lot larger as a result of it’s 3B solely with out a lot energy. He can actually decide it however I want there have been extra versatility.

Mo Baller: I actually can’t cease raking as a 21 y o at AAA, and now my Ok price is broaching single digits regardless of a profession excessive ISO. Has the eval modified thus far? Am I first in line to cowl for an harm in Chicago simply to get my bat within the lineup, or is there nonetheless sufficient hope for the glove that I’m caught in AAA engaged on that every one yr?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m hesitant nevertheless it’s undoubtedly on the level the place he deserves one other seems to be and potential reevaluation. He’s nonetheless chasing a ton however he may need freaky sufficient bat management that it isn’t an issue. It’s not like I believe he’s dangerous, my present report has common all-around offense with below-average protection and a brief athletic shelf life…

David: Mariners: Aside from Montes and Celesten it’s been a fairly quiet begin for Mariners prime prospects.  Any you might be notably involved about? Personally simply blissful to see Emerson/Celesten/Farmelo enjoying.

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe everybody seems to be about as anticipated, I’m excited to hunker down on Farmelo because the Mariners checklist arrives right here shortly. Montes I’m nonetheless on the skeptical aspect, the contact price is holding in that 66% space, which isn’t nice.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m bummed about Tai Pette’s begin, although.

DF: Love all of the prospect work–thanks! I don’t see Sammy Stafura in your Reds checklist. Looks as if he needs to be ion there someplace, probably prime 10, no?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s on there on the very backside, don’t suppose that man’s gonna hit.

jeffkilbasa: bazzana – give me cause to not fear particularly given clevelands observe report of place participant prime picks

Eric A Longenhagen: He’ll be okay, however that’s most likely all he’ll be. Not a brilliant bodily toolsy man, he’s fantastic, not a star. Simply the character of final yr’s draft up prime imo.

Eric A Longenhagen: Did I miss one thing? Or did this COVID-era query have additional years of eligibility? 😉

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: In response to the printed radar gun, Braxton Bragg was sitting 95-96 in Hartford earlier this week and touched 100. With out having strike zone knowledge it’s laborious to inform, nevertheless it looks as if he was throwing too many strikes. Do you’ve got form numbers (IVB/HB/VAA) for his pitches that may clarify why the fastball was surprisingly crummy at lacking bats? He’s scheduled for Sunday there once more, fwiw

Eric A Longenhagen: Two seam form, 12 vert, 16 horiz

Eric A Longenhagen: you’re figuring out the form situation appropriately, I believe

Blaine Crim: Can you utilize Crim and his MiLB profession for example of what MLB groups search for in evalutating who will succeed on the huge league degree. I’m pondering largely of how good his stats have regarded in comparison with the truth that he appeared a non-factor as a prospect.

Eric A Longenhagen: Righty-hitting 1B is sooo robust to interrupt by means of. You’re competing with Goldy and Alonso and Olson, and late bloomer like Christian Walker and Arranda, after which guys falling down the defensive spectrum like Harper and Vladdy…..

Eric A Longenhagen: And everybody about as proficient as you, however who hits lefty, is forward of you within the pecking order.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s good hitter, I’ve loved watching him for all these years though there’s not a ton of main league worth there.

Afterthought: Any perception on why the FCL season is beginning in Might once more as a substitute of June? No complaints from me, extra time for complicated guys to complete up the yr in low-A.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah I’m conflicted about it. They find yourself ending so early that we see fewer draftees within the league, they find yourself enjoying “Bridge League/Instructs”, which is okay I suppose nevertheless it’s not the identical as actual video games. After which we’ve conditions the place guys like Kellon Lindsey mainly go a yr between when their highschool season ends and after they begin enjoying actual video games once more.

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe they time the season in such a means which you can have a fancy season with out the draft class creating roster overflow previous the 160 man cap

Marge’s Lap Canine: So learn your insightful write up on Mey. My query is:  Any probability we see Franconna trusting him as a real nearer by June, if he performs persistently.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d take a look at Mey as if he have been Justin Martinez. If he proves over an extended time frame that he can throw strikes, he’ll ascend to that position. The timing on that’s most likely not only one month, although.

Will: At what level do we are saying, De Vries is the best prospect in padres historical past sans Tatis? he’s nuts

Visitor: LDV is getting some consideration.  Is it actual/warranted or simply early season helium?   Do you suppose he can maintain down SS on the main league degree?

Eric A Longenhagen: Shedeur Sanders acquired plenty of consideration, it’s not indicative of something besides what individuals are apt to concentrate to. He’s a rattling good prospect however I wager this will get uncontrolled primarily based on the character of a few of these chat questions. Don’t go shopping for this youngster’s baseball card for 1000’s of {dollars} or something, guys.

Eric A Longenhagen: No, they preserve issues fairly shut. I’ll be in Florida later this month and attempt to play Fletch on their backfields and discover out.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s right here in AZ enjoying in Extendido. Undecided what the harm was, one other org who doesn’t actually wanna say.

Fitts v Dobbins: With Buehler going again for a MRI….who’s most probably to fill his spot longterm is that this doesn’t go properly.

Eric A Longenhagen: Fitts’ persistent harm stuff is troublesome. Is likely to be Dobbins though I’ve them ranked in inverse order in the meanwhile.

Mike: He’s an older man, however any intrigue with Ernesto martinez JR? Assume he can maintain this contact price and laborious hit price?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe there’s. Nice physique, the type you need to be on long-term, might have a window of relevance, pitch choice has gotten so so so significantly better than when he was younger.

Eric A Longenhagen: ooo la la

boobie miles: You appear to be the low man on L. Montes? Swing and miss price transfer you off him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, to be clear it’s not like I believe he sucks. I simply suppose he’s extra of a platoon man who’s nonetheless in A ball.

Some kinda Mook: Duno kinda seems to be like he’s crushing it up to now in 2025. Ok-rate wayyyy down, and he’s nonetheless operating a career-high ISO. It’s allllll coming collectively…

Eric A Longenhagen: Ok price is down however the underlying contact stuff continues to be scary. Butt is bailing towards 3B a ton, he wants to regulate.

Kevin: Are there a number of gamers you’re enthusiastic about seeing with complicated league beginning?

Visitor: It seems the Royals at the moment are getting Cags reps within the OF. That all the time appeared like a superb match given the arm. Did they begin him out at first as a result of it appeared like a neater place to start with?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe they began him there as a result of he had expertise at 1B in school.

Keith: Does this Denzer Guzman “breakout” appear actual to you? Is he a man that would find yourself within the prime 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe there’s an opportunity, sure. It’s an actual uptick in energy. The contact piece continues to be suspect, however for those who’re enjoying a superb SS and hitting for energy, you’re a participant.

Alex: Of the three unstable 40+ FV OF for the Giants (Bo Davidson, Rainer Arias, Dakota Jordan) – which do you suppose has the most effective probability to pop? Do you’ve got any intestine feeling?

Ryan: How is that this yr’s draft when it comes to depth? I do know the highest isn’t nice, however is it a deep draft with potential influence gamers in spherical 2?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like the highschool hitters sufficient to say sure, although I’d think about there’s a degree the place the bonus quantity isn’t sufficient for them to signal

Ken: Henry Bolte hanging out much less, but additionally doing far much less harm on the plate. Focus on.

Eric A Longenhagen: Simply taking a fast look at his knowledge, with out seeking to see if there’s been a mechanical change or something…

Eric A Longenhagen: 67% contact price, 2 diploma avg launch, 54% swing price, 35% laborious hit price, 109 max exit…

Eric A Longenhagen: In order that’s 30 hit, 50-ish uncooked, enjoying down on account of chase and lack of launch

Eric A Longenhagen: I swear I’m not *making an attempt* to be a dick about Henry Bolte the final couple of years, however I’m not making an attempt to drag punches both.

CB: Do you suppose Henry Baez could possibly be a 4th or fifth starter for the Padres in his prime?

Brandon: Any updates on Joel Hurtado since your final analysis?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s one of many hardest-throwers within the minors up to now this yr, suppose he’s touched 103 or 104

Philip: Bryan Balzer appears to be getting plenty of helium as a potential padres pop up prospect. What have you ever heard/seen?

Eric A Longenhagen: Had a number of outings at the beginning of ST when he was as much as 98 or so, velo was means down earlier than camp broke. Haven’t checked in on him since then. Fascinating story, although. American dad, born and grew up in Japan, signed as an int’l novice, had TJ, now he’s again and has flashed velo. Undoubtedly a prospect.

Visitor: Are you able to clarify Sal Stewart’s grade a bit extra? I dont get the 45 hit grade, since all he’s finished is hit since he was signed. Is there underlying knowledge that makes you skeptical it’ll translate?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe I’m going into thorough element in his scouting report as to why, I knew it’d be a conclusion I needed to assist with cogent thought and evaluation as a result of it’s counterintuitive.  I wrote 630 phrases about simply him, is there something particular in there you need me to flesh out extra for you right here?

Draft Man: Any thought of when a draft replace will happen on the board? I notice you might be very busy with the workforce lists in parallel, so I simply need to say thanks for all of the unbelievable high quality and depth of scouting knowledge.

Eric A Longenhagen: Quickly, Gerth and I’ve to huddle on that, simply acquired school trackman knowledge replace, should circle again with some sources, and so on. Admire your persistence on the draft replace, it wants a contemporary coat.

MF Luder: I really like the outline “command artist.” Was there anything that stood out to you about Jedixson Paez that precipitated you so as to add him to the again finish of the post-spring prime 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: He was on the offseason prime 100. only a freaky command man with all types of deception, a superb 2sm/changeup combo… I like him, suppose he’ll be on the 40man after this season and has a shot to debut subsequent yr. His stuff is a bit more weak to wreck than you need it to be and I might perceive for those who suppose his ceiling’s a little bit decrease.

re: Joel Hurtado: You’re saying Joel Hurtado within the Angels system touched 103 or 104? His final replace from the winter on The Board had him topping out at 98 mph.

Phil: Ah, I see Popovich is stepping down, very unhappy. Would Francona rely as a baseball parallel, or is it merely unimaginable given the much less central position of a supervisor?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ah man, I hadn’t seen that but however I fearful it is perhaps a factor. the Tito scenario is totally different as a result of, whereas he’s had well being stuff, I don’t suppose he’s had a *stroke* ya know?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pop is fantastic and I want I appreciated him extra whereas I used to be younger. These Pistons and Spurs groups from that period have been instrumental for my adolescent understanding and delight of the sport. Ultimately I acquired sick of how good they have been, my Grizz have been below their thumb plenty of the time.

Oddball Herrera: Any indication that Mayer’s offensive outburst has included doing higher on breaking pitches?  “swinging over pitches” appears to have been the ding towards him thus far

Eric A Longenhagen: Good query, lemme take a peek.

Eric A Longenhagen: Whereas that masses for me, lemme take a number of extra…

Visitor: Is there any level in retaining Yesavage at low A any longer? Can he attain AA by the tip of the yr?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, sure.

Alex Haese: Very dissatisfied in your prospect write-up of Jake Bauers in 2018. It mentions nothing about how he would have extra profession Pitcher Warfare than Hitter Warfare xD

Eric A Longenhagen: lmao, I cherished that man, and I’d by no means disgrace anybody for having an enormous league profession so long as his. It exhibits how robust it’s to separate your self when your defensive match is 1B.

Eric A Longenhagen: Marcelo: has seen 65 breaking balls this yr per Synergy

Eric A Longenhagen: 41% swing, 25% chase, 27% miss. These are all higher than common

Eric A Longenhagen: Numbers are means worse versus offspeed stuff, changeups and splitters

Visitor: what’s the time-frame for holding a FV? is {that a} peak? you set an Espinosa comp on a 50 lately (I overlook who), he had I believe three ~2.5-ish WAR seasons however plenty of of us thought he was trash due to the opposite, worse years

Eric A Longenhagen: Briefly: common WAR manufacturing throughout your pre-free company years the place 2-ish annual WAR is a 50.

J: So, I needed to ask this any means, and the checklist at the moment offers it immediacy. Chase Burns is mainly throwing 4 IP a sport, I suppose as a strategy to protect well being. And it might be that every one the Reds will need is for him to pitch 6 IP a sport. However at what level, and I believe we’re previous it, are baseball franchises diminishing the precise worth of pitchers?

That stated, it might simply be a tacit admittance that Burns (and others) merely can’t maintain what they’re doing for greater than 90 pitches. Nevertheless it feels backwards.

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe we’re already on the level the place the worth curve for pitchers has shifted, it’s flattened. The proficient band that constitutes the margin is larger, groups think about extra gamers to be fungible, particularly pitchers. It’s most likely decreased the worth of a sure class of pitcher and elevated some others, like he guys who can maintain big stuff for 180 frames or so, in addition to a number of the fringe relievers who get to have a extra sturdy huge league profession as a result of groups are extra apt to shuttle guys on and off the roster than earlier than.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay guys, I’ve gotta go assist somebody transfer some furnishings. Thanks for stopping by, nice questions this week. Molly Shannon, name me.