Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/1/25

Dan Szymborski: It’s time for chat!

You Shopping for…: Wilyer Abreu’s begin? His k-rate is a smooch above the place you’d in all probability prefer it to be however the underlying metrics appear to actually help this breakout. ZiPS was already essentially the most bullish projection system on him and hopefully that continues, for my fantasy group’s sake.

dylan: Wilyer Abreu is having an MVP caliber season and it isn’t shut!!!!!

Dan Szymborski: He has an above-average contact charge!

Dan Szymborski: If in case you have a wRC+ of 166, you are able to do no matter you wish to

Dan Szymborski: inside purpose, at the very least. If in case you have a wRC+ since you’re kidnapping individuals and performing ritual sacrifice, I believe you gotta cease that

dylan: Do you ever take into consideration Franchy Cordero’s 480 toes+ homeruns?

Dan Szymborski: poro Franchy, he was too stunning for this world

dylan: How do you’re feeling about WIlyer Abreu being prime 12 in fWAR? He cooled off sure, however constantly taking part in strong proper discipline with bat.

Dan Szymborski: I imply, he’s performed rather well. I’d prefer to see him used a bit extra towards lefties, it’s not like his splits in minors had been that uncommon

Steve: Simply talking it into existence. Pablo Lopez, Correa, Jax, for Moises Ballesteros, Kevin Alcantara, and Owen Caissie. Who says no?

Dan Szymborski: Most likely Twins, although perhaps they shouldn’t

Whaaa: The lusty month of Might?  Is {that a} factor?  Have I been lacking out?

Dan Szymborski:

30fWAR: So, in slightly below 2000PA (it’s like 1997 I believe), because the begin of 2022, Decide has now surpassed 30fWAR. What I believe is so spectacular is he’s amassing tons of WAR at a time when WAR is pretty nicely understood however he additionally has such eye-popping “conventional” stats (.313/.439/.680 with 167 hr, 60 per 162) that he’s kind of proper in a sweetspot to impress us stat individuals and Discuss Radio Name-In (except for October).

TC: How would you order these 2b-eligible gamers in a OBP keeper league:  Gabriel Arias, Luis Rengifo, Colt Keith, Edouard Julien, Miguel Vargas

Dan Szymborski: swap keith and arias. after which put julien forward of arias?

Insert Witty Identify Right here: Doughy huh? What sort of bread would you find yourself as? Sourdough? Bagels? Pumpernickel?

Dan Szymborski: deep-fried

Mike: Do you suppose Andrelton Simmons is a prime 5 fielding Shortstop all time

Dan Szymborski: I believe the case may be made.

It’s Might: Is there ANY purpose to be anxious about Juan Soto?

Dan Szymborski: I imply, you’d prefer to see a warmer begin, nevertheless it’s not WORRY territory but

Dan Szymborski: And, in fact, since he’s a Met, there’s at all times a background fear

Carlos Mendoza: The Mets starters have been nice however in addition they don’t pitch deep into video games. Is that this simply what occurs once you keep away from the time by the order penalty? Luckily the bullpen has been nice too.

Dan Szymborski: I believe that is just about by design once you have a look at the names within the rotation

Dan Szymborski: I believe as time goes on, we’ll see much less of a line between starters and relievers

Symbo Slice: Ought to the Orioles commerce away some items and re-tool for subsequent yr just like the Mets did? It’s not working in Baltimore, and I don’t see how free agent signings this low season repair this group. What say you sir?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if I’m there but, however I believe I’d get there faster than most. As I stated in my piece a number of days in the past, I simply don’t see the place somebody swoops in and saves the day

Guards! Guards!: I believe this got here up in Jay’s chat – somebody requested a query about Luke Easter, whose profession partially predated MLB data. Is it attainable to make use of ZiPs in reverse to challenge their peak/early profession from the decline section and see what may have been with gamers like that?

Dan Szymborski: I even have a ZiPS Time Warp piece that was by no means accomplished on Luke Easter

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: This was proper as Negro League knowledge was being launched and it felt a bit tone depth to have an article translating the numbers

Dan Szymborski: loss of life

Dan Szymborski: deaf

Dan Szymborski: I’m changing into barely extra functionally illiterate by the day, it appears!

Visitor: Lucas Giolito throws 140 innings and has 2 or extra WAR. True or false

Dan Szymborski: I could possibly be smartassy, btu I’ll simply say false for this yr

Wi-fi Joe Jackson: Did you say doughy or doughty?   I really feel such as you need that “t”.

Dan Szymborski: doughy

Dan Szymborski: A doughty individual wouldn’t have a unfinished paint line in his hallway from a paint job he didn’t end 18 years in the past

Sharp: Let’s give it up for Braves savior Eli White.

dylan: is it too early to foretell him ending prime 30 in mvp votes (wilyer)

Dan Szymborski: no

MF Luder: Is that this actually who Kameron Misner is?

Dan Szymborski: This good? in all probability not

Dan Szymborski: However there was stuff to love in his minor league performances

v2micca: As a fan, I get actually pissed off when a group elects to choice clearly superior expertise again to the minors just because the opposite participant is out of choices.  I’ve to ask, has hanging on to the clearly lesser participant on the most important league squad ever actually work out higher for the group?  As a result of to me, every time if seems like delaying the inevitable and the participant is DFAed inside a month or two.

Dan Szymborski: it postpones having to decide, one thing I can completely sympathize with

Cromulent: Final week someone requested if signing older gamers to short-term, low-dollar contracts was a attainable market inefficiency groups may pursue. I’m considering these older gamers won’t wish to play together with that – Anthony Rizzo was express about it (not simply concerning the $ for himself however the precedent it may set) and we will assume some group(s) will need to have supplied David Robertson a one-year deal. If gamers had been prepared, groups would have already got exploited this market inefficiency, no?

Dan Szymborski: I believe that’s in all probability the case

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if it’s a lot in Robertson’s cae

Dan Szymborski: nevertheless it’s arduous on a degree to inform a dude “Hey, do you wish to come work for us? The identical job you’ve been doing, however with a 90% paycut. Additionally, you may lose your job two months within the season after you’ve moved to this new metropolis”

Dan Szymborski: You want somebody both specifically motivated to maintain taking part in — and people gamers exist — or somebody who sees a practical upside by way of the long run

Dan Szymborski: Simply talking for me personally, if I had $200 million, there’s virtually no job that entails me doing one thing for half a yr that you can get me to do for you for $2 million.

Dan: Placing apart the Aaron Judgeness of all of it, his BABIP is .506–clearly unsustainable, and nicely forward of his .350 lifetime common.  Let’s say he finally ends up with a practical, profession yr BABIP-wise… .378– (identical BABIP as Ted Williams when he hit .406).  What’s a practical batting common?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS really has his remaining year-end outcome at .388 with a .328 BA, so name it .320 or so

Gorman: How is Gorman struggling so unhealthy and placing out regardless of large enhancements to O-Zone Swing % and Zone Contact %?

Dan Szymborski: I woudln’t go nuts but, it’s liek 50 PA

Oddball Herrera: Who to you has been the worst offender on the “a breakout is perpetually imminent” group?  I’ve received Jo Adell and Jordan Walker on there, and I’ve a sense Dylan Crews will ultimately be group captain

Dan Szymborski: For a very long time it was Nomar Mazara. I used to be continuously tricked into considering the facility was coming

Dan Szymborski: I believe you’re too quickly for Crews!

MF Luder: I don’t suppose 2023 Edouard Julien was a fluke. Am I in denial?

Dan Szymborski: I nonetheless suppose he’ll be wonderful, in all probability wants a brand new group

Alfresco: In a Scoresheet league (OBP and protection are taken into consideration) would you commerce Bryan Reynolds for Aaron Nola?  I desperately want SP.  
Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: for those who’re determined, I’d do this

Luca: Streaming Taijuan Walker right this moment at residence towards the Nats?

Dan Szymborski: I might not

Decision: What on earth are the Pirates doing with Henry Davis? Shouldn’t he simply be up taking part in for them?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know WTF the Pirates are doing half the time with their roster

Dan Szymborski: I’m nonetheless confused concerning the Cruz/IKF shuffle

A’s: Jacob Wilson’s peak is a prime ____ SS within the MLB

Dan Szymborski: notch

Dan, HELP!: Justin Martinez proprietor right here.  Who do I choose up as a handcuff?  Shelby Miller? Ginkel? Thompson?

Dan Szymborski: I’d be most snug with Ginkel

Dan Szymborski: It’s kinda amusing that ultimately, Shelby Miller might outlast each Heyward and Walden (and he’s already outlasted Walden)

Ed: Do you suppose the ZiPs ROS is just too destructive on Ben Rice protection?

Dan Szymborski: Sure

Aaron Decide: Can he really hit .400? I imply that is insane proper? We have now by no means seen an influence hitter hit for this kind of common earlier than

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think about that’s a practical chance

Homer: If Baltimore does find yourself retooling, looks like they’d need to attempt to commerce OF and IF for SP, proper?  Any likelihood they match up with the Braves in any respect?

Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure the Braves actually sync up with their wants

Royals gonna Royal: Cameron comes up, appears to be like good, will get despatched down.  Why didn’t they only dfa Stratton?  Dude sucks

Dan Szymborski: I believe you preferred that begin WAY higher than I did

You already know you’re in too deep for the O’s when…: You begin monitoring Trevor Rogers rehab progress. Please give me one thing extra strong to hope for with this group!

MF Luder: In a vacuum, who’s the higher hitter: Edouard Julien or Spencer Horowitz?

Dan Szymborski: Prob Horwitz

Sodo Mojo: The Mariner’s are taking part in nicely however the IL listing is attending to be longer and longer.  Given the present WC surroundings and their logical provides out there they will make to handle their Damage points.

Dan Szymborski: I believe proper now, it’s arduous, there simply aren’t many groups which might be out of the race and know they’re

Dan Szymborski: and those which might be have principally already traded off most of their belongings

jan Jzymborski: Whats your favourite period associated stat? ERA+? xERA?

Dan Szymborski: ERA+. Not as a result of it’s the perfect, however as a result of it’s simple to speak what it’s

Dan Szymborski: Generally, the right stat from an analyst standpoint isn’t the right stat for interpretability once you’re speaking with others

xSLG: Decide is overperforming his xBA (a horrible terrible .354) however UNDERperforming is xSLG

Dan the NYM GM: By Might 18, New York Mets should both convey up Ronnie Mauricio or use Mauricio final MiLB choice. Assuming no worse than meh re hab, what would you ( and ZIPS) do?

Dan Szymborski: I’d in all probability use him in minors so long as you possibly can maintain giving Luisangel taking part in time

Oddball Herrera: Am I caught prior to now with the diploma of shenanigans I’m calling on Trent Grisham’s sudden competency?  Statcast loves him, however I simply can’t see the way you go from three straight years under the mendoza line to this

Dan Szymborski: Projection techniques by no means actually gave up on him

Vince: Is Marcus Semien achieved? Can’t simply say “April” any extra… Any purpose for hope with him?

Dan Szymborski: not achieved, however he *is* a 34-year-old center infielder and there’s a brutal curve there

Kevin: Most likely the very last thing anybody’s desirous about re: Decide, however do you’ve got any concept why his defensive metrics had been so out of step along with his profession numbers final yr? I used to be satisfied on the time there was some kind of systematic error taking part in subsequent to Soto a lot

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have them in entrance of me, however IIRC, he misplaced like two or three toes of leap from 2022 to 2024

MF Luder: Fill within the clean: Luisangel Acuña will likely be a prime __ hitting 2B by yr’s finish

Dan Szymborski: __hat__ hitting 2B by yr’s finish after the Mets begin a riot on the Lincoln Heart throughout Act 1 of La Traviata

Triston Casas: Am I simply inferior to initially marketed?

Dan Szymborski: Hey, I used to be skeptical coming into the season

Oaktown Blues: JJ Bleday already at an unbelievable -8 DRS for the season (-5 OAA). Matches the attention take a look at; he’s been comically unhealthy in CF. When you’re the A’s, do you simply grin and bear it and hope his offense bounces again to 2024 ranges? Do you speed up Denzel Clarke’s timeline?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose I may justify taking part in him in middle hitting the best way he’s

Visitor: Henry Davis looks like a AAAA participant to me and could also be finest fitted to Japan.

Dan Szymborski: true AAAA guys are fairly uncommon

Getting Jiggy Wit It: Even with all of the walks, Cameron nonetheless appears to be like extra promising than Stratton

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, however I woudln’t name that an excellent begin

Lord Thunder: When you had been the Pirates GM, would you name up Bubba Chandler now?

Dan Szymborski: Sure. audentes Fortuna iuvat

Visitor: Hey! I’m wanting on the “{Dollars}” statistic for a way a lot they might make based mostly on their WAR. Slightly to get a bit extra element on what that statistic really is and the way it’s calculated

Dan Szymborski: It’s mainly only a linear estimation. I don’t know what FG is utilizing off the highest of my head

PCA: At what level do I hit leadoff?

Dan Szymborski: When Counsell writes your identify on the lineup card as such, foolish!

Dan Szymborski: I’m not personally positive I’d use PCA at leadoff

Troll: I might like to see somebody troll Yankee stadium by going to each residence sport, and chanting “overrated” continuous throughout each Decide plate look.  After which publish video of the following rage

Dan Szymborski: You’re going to get somebody killed!

Dan Szymborski: It’s lucky I wasn’t a BBWAA member till 2016 as I in all probability wouldn’t be capable of go to NY ever once more. I’ve no intention or prioritizing slam-dunk near-unanimous candidates so long as there plaeyrs with questions as to five% and 75%

The Dude: Heliot Ramos is a cheat code in MLBtheshow.  My goodness does he rake.

Dan Szymborski: For me it’s Chandler Simpson. I can mainly bloop EVERYTHING into shallow proper discipline for successful after which steal second and third with him

The Dude: Re: Semien.  I nonetheless guess on Semien to be a prime 5 fantasy 2b by yr finish.  He at all times begins sluggish.

Dan Szymborski: This ain’t simply sluggish. That is me-the-time-I-had-plantar-fascitis sluggish

The Oriole Chook: How does ZiPS really feel concerning the subsequent crop of Orioles prospects, like Basallo and Mayo and Beavers?

Dan Szymborski: Superb on the highest two, extra ambivalent about Beavers

Adam: What number of groups must end with the very same report two years in a row so that you can suppose you’re dwelling within the Matrix?  What about three years in a row?

Dan Szymborski: I’m already unconvinced that we don’t

Query Man: Is MLB Properties holding petabytes of knowledge from monitoring inputs that could possibly be helpful for analysis functions?

Dan Szymborski: Sure

Matt Shaw: Do I simply wrestle with MLB velo till I drop the leg kick?

Dan Szymborski: Mechanics are a bit outta my wheelhouse!

NoahMurdock: Why would the A’s proceed to roster a rule 5 choose with a 14.60 ERA? Noah Murdock is available in and immediately places video games out of attain. He provides up a ridiculous quantity of runs almost each time he’s in.

Dan Szymborski: I admit to not understanding what the fascination is with him

Dan Szymborski: He LOOKS like somebody who throws significantly tougher than he does, if that is sensible

Adam: Whose swing do you most take pleasure in amongst present gamers?  All time?

Dan Szymborski: He’s not really GOOD total, however I like Giancarlo Stanton swings as a result of it appears to be like like he may shatter air

Dan Szymborski: My fave all time in all probability Will Clark

Visitor: Talking of Casas, the Purple Sox need to get Anthony up and will they put a 1st baseman’s glove on his hand instantly?

Dan Szymborski: I’d at the very least get him some expertise there, however I don’t suppose the A’s have even tried that within the minors

Dan Szymborski: The REd Sox are weirdly unprepared for Casas not figuring out

Oaktown Blues: Talking of horrible A’s protection, Miguel Andujar is beginning at 3B right this moment! This isn’t a drill!

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, the A’s protection appears to be like a bit like a kind of over-ambitious Alderson/Beane groups

Dan Szymborski: the place they did stuff like stick Pat Lennon in middle

A-ARON: You get sufficient questions on me but?

Holy Hand Grenade: To be truthful, no person referred to as Cameron’s begin nice.  Commenter stated “seemed good”

Dan Szymborski: OK sorry

Lyle: No, the individuals chanting “Crowd Surf!” at Dave Blunts concert events are going to get individuals killed.

Natitude Adjuster: When you had been working the Nats, would you be attempting fairly arduous to lock up Wooden and Crews after which construct round?

Dan Szymborski: Sure

Opifijikl: I liked the Orioles piece a number of days in the past, Dan. I couldn’t work out what ROS meant on the projections although.

Would you’ve got traded Basallo+ for Crochet? What would your out-of-the-box answer to their pitching be?

Dan Szymborski: remainder of season

Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure if I WOULD have, however I’d have thought of it greater than most individuals

Dan Szymborski: I believe you HAVE to contemplate this for those who’re actually in win now mode

JPN: Is it rational to make use of a capability that isn’t almost proven within the knowledge as being robust in possibilities as a judgment issue in the course of the match?

Dan Szymborski: wait, waht?

Oddball Herrera: When you consider it’s usually attainable to create a pc that might simulate the universe, then the chances are you’re in a simulation, as a result of simulations would outnumber realities by a substantial margin

Dan Szymborski: Yup, that’s precisely my take

Dan Szymborski: and never simply if it’s usually attainable, however whether it is EVER attainable, within the numerous years till the age of planets is over

Talking of Video Video games…: In MLBtheshow it’s also unusually simple to barrel with JJ Bleday.  Like virtually each time I make contact…..

Dan Szymborski: I shoudl test my MLB the present stats after the chat (I’ll reply this in twitter)

Opifijikl: When testing/engaged on ZiPS variables, have you ever discovered any that appear to battle with one another?

Dan Szymborski: Not REALLY, although I do discover that one thing new isn’t fairly as helpful as hoped becuase you had been capturing it extra not directly elsewhere

Dan Szymborski: like thus far, swing velocity knowledge hasn’t actually change issues a lot as ZiPS was already capturing the outcomes of swing velocity

Jason: The place do you get the concepts to your AI posters which you publish on X/Twitter and are you getting assist to your points?  Simply kidding the posters are wild…

Dan Szymborski: I’d oddly wired, each nature and nurture

Daniel –: Observe up: I made a bit program in R that compares a gamers preseason projected WAR / PA charge * their precise PA and sees the distinction between the conflict they’ve of their profession and the conflict they’d have in the event that they performed to their projections yearly — and Decide has the most important distinction (shut to twenty conflict greater than the projections all through his profession). Do you suppose the projections have been weirdly anti decide, particularly over the previous ~4 years?

Dan Szymborski: I believe there’s a little bit of choice bias becuase the perfect gamers within the league are usually going to be those that beat expectations

Dan Szymborski: if somebody hits .350, you’re SUPPOSED to overlook actually low

Rajen: Hello Dan, I used to be questioning for those who had some perception into why full-season defensive worth throughout MLB sums to a big destructive complete (final yr round -590 runs). Whole offense sums to 17 runs (functionally zero), so I’m questioning why the whole defensive worth isn’t that after. Does that additionally imply we must always consider a participant with -2ish DEF (600/30 groups/10 starters per group) as an “common” defensive participant?

Dan Szymborski: It appears to be a relic of the positional adjustmejnt values, which add as much as -1.9 or one thing for those who assume equal PA on everybody

Dan Szymborski: I believe the result’s in there as a result of it’s an offensive adjustment to a defensive place and positions with steeper defensive changes are likely to hit extra and thus, get extra PAs

Dan Szymborski: However when it comes all the way down to it, I’m a man who’s much less involved what numbers are, than with what numbers *imply*, so it doens’t obther me too mcuh

Dan Szymborski: And on that poorly typed be aware, I’m going to go out for an additional week

Dan Szymborski: And sorry archibaldyeats for me being me.