Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/29/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us, and welcome to a different version of my weekly chat!

Jay Jaffe: Tomorrow I’ll have one thing on the Logan Gilbert damage and the form of the Mariners rotation.

Jay Jaffe: Right now I’m alas nursing a sore decrease again, one thing that’s dogged me for over per week and has me in a little bit of a grouchy temper. I’m shifting gingerly at finest. Ugh.

Mr. Fister: Jay, thanks for chatting!  I requested this about 5 years in the past, and I’d prefer to re-visit it.  I do know the chances are in all probability that he doesn’t make the HOF, however what would Salvy Perez need to do within the the rest of his profession to extend these odds?

Jay Jaffe: he’d need to persuade me that his -115. 8 framing runs was simply an accounting error.

Jay Jaffe: Significantly, he has 18.2 fWAR when you account for his pitch framing. I’m by no means gonna vote for that or advocate anybody else ought to

Jay Jaffe: not when Russell Martin (545 fWAR) and Brian McCann (52.1 fWAR) went one-and-done on the 2025 BBWAA poll.

Jay Jaffe: Nonetheless mad!

Eli: Is it time for Yankee followers to only settle for that Volpe is Alvaro Espionza with a bit extra pop and a bit much less mustache?

Jay Jaffe: Dude has a low batting common however a 122 wRC+ on a .229/ .322/.448 slashline. I don’t love his method on the plate however he’s a superb defender and baserunner who was price 3.4 wins final yr as a 23-year-old. Crankees followers have to cease worrying about what Volpe can’t do (hit for a Jeteresque batting common) and recognize that they’ve a fairly good shortstop proper now.

Looking for Options: Do you ever take into consideration this period you’re protecting as a particular time period in baseball historical past? Publish-steroids? Pre-salary-cap? Strikeouts and dingers? Simply questioning, since you’ve got such a grasp on the varied eras and ballplayers. Thanks.

Jay Jaffe: I have a tendency to think about this because the analytics period, for the reason that superior statistical stuff drives a lot choice making and even participant growth.

Grime: Mathematically talking, ought to groups be IBBing Aaron Decide extra?

Jay Jaffe: I feel so, although to not Bonds ranges. Can be all in favour of seeing somebody mannequin this.

Topher B: What do you assume Juan Soto’s WRC+ shall be on the finish of the yr? Been a gradual however not unreasonable begin for him to this point

Jay Jaffe: I feel he’ll be near his profession mark of 157 (he’s at 124 now). Unsure precisely what’s occurring with him however we noticed him scuffle a bit like this when he was traded to the Padres. He could also be a superhuman hitter however he’s hitting too many groundballs proper now so I’m guessing he’s only a mechanical tweak away.

Alec: Is there any sort of statistic that at the moment components baserunning into an efficient slugging share? Considering of speedsters like Chandler Simpson who hit a ton of singles, but when they steal second base x% of the time they get to first, they’re successfully doubles. Does Fangraphs have something like this – principally including SB to a gamers TB when calculating slugging %?

Jay Jaffe: No, and the issue with that method is that the additional base he provides by stealing doesn’t have the identical impact as a double as a result of it’s not advancing the runner.

Gregory: HOF probabilities for Altuve?  Some would argue that in case you maintain Bonds, Clemens, and others out for suspicion of dishonest, Altuve needs to be in the identical boat, and I are inclined to agree.

Jay Jaffe: I feel he’ll get elected, whether or not or not he will get to three,000 hits or approaches the JAWS normal at 2B (he’s over 10 factors brief, no pun meant). If Carlos Beltrán — who has been portrayed as way more central to the sign-stealing scheme — is on the cusp of election (70.3% in 2025) then I don’t see how the participant who reportedly requested his teammates to not tip him off goes to undergo by the hands of voters.

Robert Nerenberg: Baseball in Colorado isn’t a workable proposition is it?

Jay Jaffe: Not as long as it’s owned by the Monforts, at the very least.

Jazz: Are you able to clarify one thing to me Jay?  Why is it that with the PED cloud conserving the Bonds, Kent, Clemens of the world out of the HOF, somebody like David Ortiz, who really failed PED exams (not like the previous three gamers listed) makes it?  Is is just due to the entire “Boston Icon”, “our effing metropolis”, teddy bear persona?  I actually don’t get it.  What separates cheaters within the eyes of voters, and why did Ortiz, a cheater, make the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: Ortiz reportedly failed the 2003 survey take a look at, which was presupposed to be nameless — a criminal offense was dedicated in leaking the outcomes — and years later, Manfred publicly famous that the substance for which he examined optimistic was one that will have been topic to arbitration over the validity of the outcomes. It was a curious step however it did appear to clear him within the eyes of those that might need in any other case been inclined to withhold their assist.

Jay Jaffe: Me, I draw a line between the pre-testing period, when there have been no penalties in place for utilizing PEDs, and the beginning of testing in 2004. So I voted for Ortiz and Bonds and Clemens.

Zach: So, was everybody improper concerning the Mariners offense? They’re #2 in baseball in wRC+ this season, and #1 since Dan Wilson and Edgar Martinez took over final August.

Jay Jaffe: They’re off to a really encouraging begin, for positive. I don’t assume that makes all people improper — we’re speaking about 28 video games, not 162, however some good bouncebacks from guys like Crawford and Polanco, who’re higher gamers than they appeared final yr.

Talfred: Ought to managers rethink the logic of pinch-hitting? Pinch-hitters this yr are hitting .210 with a 79 wRC+, even with pinch-hitters doubtless having the platoon benefit of their at bats. It simply appears more durable than ever to come back off the bench chilly for a plate look.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know this for positive however I think it’s more durable early within the season when the climate is colder as properly. However I feel the larger challenge is that benches are shorter, so there are fewer PH specialists on rosters — the Manny Motas and Lenny Harrises of the world — they usually’re dealing with an more and more larger share of one-inning relievers who can empty the tank with their high-velo arsenals. It’s not a simple job.

War2d2: Hello Jay! Moises Ballesteros is hitting .414 with a 1.061 OPS in AAA regardless of having an absolute dump truck @$$. At what level does it make sense for the Cubs to see if Busch can nonetheless play third and if Ballesteros can at the very least faux it at 1B? Or if not, then whether or not or not (former infielder) Ian Happ can play 1B and Seiya Suzuki can play LF whereas Ballesteros will get some run at DH? Cubs’ 3B is such a black gap at this level.

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t maintain my breath on Busch ever taking part in third once more; I feel they burned his glove in an exorcism.

Jay Jaffe: Third base shall be solved finally when Shaw returns. I’m unsure how they shoehorn Ballesteros into that lineup however accidents occur and that i think about we’ll see him up in some unspecified time in the future.

Bob: How are you going to consider the profession of a participant like Luke Easter who didn’t produce statistics till later in life?

Jay Jaffe: Easter is a very powerful one — fascinating, even, as a result of he didn’t play in any organized league till his age-31 season… and he saved going till age 48! It appears fairly doubtless that he had Corridor of Fame-level expertise however a collection of dangerous breaks — struggles in Negro Leagues exhibitions, accidents, the outbreak of World Struggle II — saved him from getting an actual shot.

Jay Jaffe: What we do have — a participant who hit for a 128 OPS+ and slugged .481 from ages 31 to 38 towards main league competitors — is fairly spectacular given that almost all gamers are of their decline part by that time limit.

Sodo Mojo: Cal Raleigh is one other unimaginable yr.  Does he have sufficient bat to play 1B or DH within the again 5 years of his profession and get to the WAR he would want to get a take a look at the Corridor. The height look good however with all catchers his longevity appears to be the problem.

Jay Jaffe: Colour me skeptical. He bought one thing of a late begin within the majors (first full season was age 25) and has a profession .219/.299/.451 (114 wRC+) slash line. Whereas he’s been higher than that not too long ago, that’s not going to make for a very productive 1B/DH as soon as he comes down.

Jay Jaffe: Due to his framing, Raleigh does have 15.2 fWAR, 3.0 fewer than our pal Sal Perez, in about 4400 fewer PA. Nuf sed.

Jay Jaffe: No, however try to be in Toledo. I’m positive Spencer Torkelson saved a fridge stocked someplace.

Dansby Swansong: The Mets +50 run differential is the best in MLB.  Is it sustainable or only a sizzling streak?

Dansby Swansong: On that very same HOF notice, what would Tommy Edman need to do to achieve the corridor?  

Jay Jaffe: Purchase tickets like the remainder of us. For like $65 you may get a yr membership that enables you limitless visits and a little bit of swag!

Jack: Sorry bout the again – simply wrenched my neck within the fitness center…no enjoyable.
I’ve been analyzing xFIP information and was questioning if FanGraphs would ever think about placing collectively a crew stat that makes use of the identical information that XFIP does to supply a crew offensive manufacturing stat? Mainly, xFIP-against/recreation for every crew – for projection functions, I determine this can be a knowledge level many would discover attention-grabbing.

Jay Jaffe: attention-grabbing concept however I by no means take a look at xFIP now that we now have xERA — which makes use of Okay, BB, and statcast inputs.

Jay Jaffe: and for offenses that will be xwOBA

Doc Estes: Sorry for asking prospect questions  Mind fart

Jay Jaffe: Getting lots of prospect and fantasy questions. Neither of these are wherever near my wheelhouse so apologies prematurely if I bypass yours

Johnny5Alive: Given his present begin, and let’s say he completed near final seasons numbers. If Lindor by no means performed once more after this season, is he within the Corridor of Fame?

Jay Jaffe: That’s principally Dustin Pedroia’s profession minus the championship and MVP award. I wouldn’t rule it out however I additionally assume it could be a longshot.

12 to six: will smith’s profession ops is 74 factors decrease within the second half. he’s hammering the ball to this point this yr – given feduccia and dashing on the cusp, and figuring out how the dodgers run smith into the bottom throughout common season, can we *please* get the recent prince an “il” blow each infrequently to maintain him recent(er)?

Jay Jaffe: I are inclined to agree. I feel as soon as Ohtani is pitching and takes the occasional time without work from DHing there shall be a lane for Smith to get a little bit of DH time and possibly check out Dashing, however I feel his future as a receiver would possibly lie in one other group.

Ken: When you might power the sale of any 5 MLB franchises for the betterment of the sport, who would they be? A’s, Pirates, and?

Jay Jaffe: A’s, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Angels.

Jay Jaffe: I didn’t even need to assume very laborious to get to five

Jay Jaffe: I’d add the White Sox and Cubs as properly

tyler locklear enjoyer: at what level do the mariners surrender on donovan solano? ive by no means seen a baseballsavant web page so blue

Jay Jaffe: They’re not going to eat a $3.5 million contract on the idea of 46 PA, notably once they simply misplaced a 2B (Ryan Bliss) for the season. Not that Solano has performed a lot 2B these days however he’s presumably an choice

MF Luder: It appears inevitable that Boston trades Yoshida for a Coke and a smile. Which crew(s) do you assume will go after him? Looks as if an above common lefty bat to me ¯_(ツ)_/¯

Jay Jaffe: They’re going to need to eat an enormous chunk of the $50-million plus nonetheless on the books if they will deal a man who’s principally a platoon DH.

Jay Jaffe: However it does appear inevitable given the group the Pink Sox have within the outfield. Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony, and possibly finally Campbell provided that they’ll need to discover a spot for Mayer as properly.

MF Luder: Is Baltimore’s gradual begin an outlier, or is their offense overrated as a consequence of inflated prospect title worth?

Jay Jaffe: Their huge downside is a dogshit rotation with a 5.62 ERA.

Jay Jaffe: sure, their younger gamers aren’t hitting however i feel that’s a secondary concern.

Turbo: What’s going on with Julio Rodriguez? BABIP luck appears to be actually dangerous — Are gamers selecting up on one thing apparent for him or is he simply unlucky?

Jay Jaffe: He’s chasing an excessive amount of, struggling towards sliders, hitting too many grounders and never pulling the ball within the air

Visitor: Eugenio Suarez is probably the most underrated participant in baseball since 2016. Your take?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume he’s the *most* underrated however he’s a really stable 3-4 win participant who can put collectively some actual sizzling streaks

Jay Jaffe: Wrote about him yesterday, hyperlink close to the highest.

Max: Bregman has an actual shot at ending his age 31 season with 45+ fWAR. Assuming he isn’t going to have anymore 7+ WAR seasons, will doubtless want a wholesome decline part to make HOF. Roughly what quantity do you assume will get him there?

Jay Jaffe: 11 of the 18 HOF 3B have 68 bWAR or larger, with Dwelling Run Baker, Dick Allen, and Jimmy Collins starting from 53-63 and all people beneath that with no enterprise within the Corridor. He’s at 41.3 by that measure so he’s bought main work to do.

I don’t actually see him on a Corridor path the way in which I do Machado, Arenado, and Ramírez.

darrenasu: Hey Jay…completely satisfied Tuesday! So…Wyatt Langford. Do you see something in his underlying metrics that recommend his present stat line is inflated? Or is that this who he’s now? A juggernaut on the plate?

Jay Jaffe: he’s about 60 factors forward of each his xBA and xSLG so sure, I’d say these numbers are inflated. Nonetheless I feel you’re a child who might simply put up a .350 OBP and .500 SLG as a 23-year-old

glt4dc: One thing I’ve at all times puzzled, even previous to Suarez’s 4HR recreation – why are there are fewer 4 HRs video games than good video games?  To vastly oversimplify, there are various fewer shifting elements mandatory for a 4 HR final result (good swings on 4 fats pitches in 4-6 ABs) than an ideal recreation (100 almost good pitches, no dangerous borderline calls by the ump, no fielding miscues).  So why has Suarez’s feat been an excellent rarer prevalence than Halladay et al?

Jay Jaffe: That’s an excellent query. I think lots of it has one thing to do with the probability of strolling a sizzling hitter, both deliberately or unintentionally

A Lack Bohm: Re: The pinch hitting query.  Appears to me like there’s an intreesting article (or a analysis piece extra like) into trying on the counterfactual state of affairs.  Outline a set of ‘pinch-hitting conditions’ (late within the recreation, batter has a platoon break up and/or is a poor hitter, and so forth.) and see what the wRC+ is for pinch-hitters vs. batters not pinch hit for.  Appears doable {that a} wRC+ of 78 could possibly be an enchancment in case you’re speaking about, say, Brandon Marsh vs. a lefty.

Jay Jaffe: certainly. Typically alternative stage efficiency is a step up

Talfred: So, if “benches are shorter, so there are fewer PH specialists on rosters . . . they usually’re dealing with an more and more larger share of one-inning relievers who can empty the tank with their high-velo arsenals.” possibly they need to check out the efficacy of continuous to make use of pinch-hitters prefer it’s 1995.

deGrom: Have I hit any HOF thresholds in your eyes?

Jay Jaffe: not till the voters begins electing starters who’re properly wanting 2,000 innings

Craig: Jay have you ever ever thought of doing a ballot to see how in a different way fangraphs readers use the location?  Like, what share of readers use content material for fantasy functions?  What number of articles they learn?  What writers draw probably the most site visitors (I do know this could possibly be seen as a recognition contest), if they like lists or chats or articles?  I feel this may be an important learn!

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t. I think about it’s one thing David Appelman has thought of however I additionally assume the site visitors numbers in all probability give us related insights.

Craig: Solely saying as a result of I see lots of writers make references to “I don’t reply fantasy questions”, and I might wager {that a} majority of readers are right here for that very cause, fantasy.  Not a knock, simply an statement from a long-time reader and subscriber.  Thanks for all you do to supply us content material!

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t performed fantasy baseball in 15 years and it had stopped being enjoyable for me for awhile earlier than that — I’m fairly out of contact with the stuff, so I don’t attempt to sort out these kinds of questions

Bing Bong: Szymborski mentioned you had been the employees member he’d least prefer to combat. Is the sensation mutual? If not, with whom amongst your colleagues do least want to throw palms?

Jay Jaffe: Ha, that’s humorous. I don’t wish to combat anybody I work with however I guess Paul Sporer, along with his enormous benefit in attain and peak, can be a very tough matchup

Tacoby Bellsbury: Given the again points, who’re your all-time favourite gamers with again struggles?

Jay Jaffe: by no means thought of it alongside these strains however David Wright is definitely one. Bobby Grich — who injured his again carrying an air conditioner IIRC — one other. Kershaw, although it hasn’t stopped him from a HOF profession.

Julio Rodriguez: Will I ever have an excellent April? Relatedly, do you purchase that some gamers could also be extra liable to slower begins than others, or do you assume it’s largely simply noise?

Jay Jaffe: I contemplated that query briefly in final week’s items on Marcus Semien and Francisco Lindor. I don’t assume Julio had sufficient PA in March/April to make the lower.

I think at the very least a number of the gradual begin stuff has to do with colder climate and the ball carrying much less — one thing we might dig into in Statcast, maybe — however a few of it’s in all probability simply noise.

Fredbird: When will the Cardinals discover their subsequent aggressive window? Looks like possession hasn’t had a recreation plan. That magical/random 2022 season appeared to delay the rebuild. Individually, Lin-Manuel Miranda’s Molina bros film … ideas? Lol.

Jay Jaffe: Nicely, the Cardinals are mid-regime change, with Mozeliak having lengthy overstayed his welcome and Bloom ready within the wings. As we’re seeing with the maturation of a wave of younger gamers in Boston, Bloom has an excellent eye for expertise, the return on the Mookie Betts commerce however. So I think we’re possibly a couple of years away from the Huge Redbird Comeback.

I cracked up once I noticed the Miranda/Molina information. I simply hope he works my description for excessive lack of pace  — “slower than a Molina dragging a Molina with one other Molina on his again” — into the script.

Matt VW: The Rockies aren’t in your high 5 “must be bought”?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, i suppose I wasn’t counting them as main league.

Jay Jaffe: However positive, add them to the record. We’re now as much as at the very least 8 groups that must be bought.

Lord Thunder: Is there any future state of affairs through which Lance Berkman will get critical HOF consideration?

Jay Jaffe: He went one-and-done on the 2019 poll, getting simply 1.2% of the vote. Traditionally it’s been almost unimaginable for gamers who are suffering that destiny even to get onto an period committee poll. Simmons (the one one elected) and Whitaker are the one ones even to get on a poll. So no, I wouldn’t maintain my breath.

Matt: Does Dick Monafort secretly have the particular sauce in possession? You’ll be able to simply create a superb reasonably priced ballpark expertise and trot out a horrible crew. Individuals nonetheless come for the expertise. Another groups have that benefit just like the Pink Sox or Cubs as a result of they’ve historical past, however the Rockies appear to have a sure science.

Jay Jaffe: You’re in all probability onto one thing there, at the very least as long as an proprietor can abdomen the ritual humiliation

Jay Jaffe: Coors Area is among the finest ballparks I’ve been to. We went there for a FanGraphs employees journey in 2019.

Tim: are we on the level the place we’re a Pavin Smoth stoop away from Suarez taking the DH spot and Lawlar known as as much as play third? Or do different dominoes have to fall?

Jay Jaffe: I’m unsure what their plan is however Lawler is taking part in lots of 2B at Triple-A this yr and so I ponder if he’s going to bump Ketel Marte again to the outfield as soon as he’s wholesome

Luke: Why did Baltimore sit on their palms all low season?  Do they not understand the window is open?  Certainly they didn’t assume, after dropping Burnes, that they’d sufficient pitching, proper?  Had loads of farm juice to get a deal carried out for a starter.  Who’s getting fired for this after this season?

Jay Jaffe: I’m actually unsure what their plan is. Rubenstein was presupposed to be extra inclined to spend on the crew than Angelos however right here we’re, with not one of the blue-chip prospect signed to a long-term extension, the rotation in tatters, Burnes lengthy gone, and the aggressive window at risk of closing a lot sooner than anticipated.

Jay Jaffe: i can perceive Orioles followers being offended!

Visitor: I understand George Springer gained’t be within the HOF, however he’s had a outstanding profession and is killing it this yr. Is there another actually good gamers who had been recognized for his or her postseason performances, however aren’t within the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: Troy Glaus, Lenny Dykstra, Bernie Williams, and Nelson Cruz come to thoughts, Randy Arozarena sometime, Kiké Hernandez in fact. Jon Lester, El Duque, Madison Bumgarner, Orel Hershiser, Andy Pettitte and Curt Schilling on the pitching aspect.

Visitor: Without end mad on the Reds for dumping Suarez to “lower your expenses” after which instantly signing Candelario to a dearer contract to be terrible

Jay Jaffe: Woof tha Candelario signing ha s not labored out

Pete: Can we get a second of silence for Paul Skenes and Bobby Witt Jr?  Sure to play out careers surrounded with alternative stage gamers and possibly one or two guys who can get to 2-3 WAR seasons right here and there.  Smh

Jay Jaffe: The Royals at the very least made the playoffs final yr and will accomplish that once more.

Paul: Lindor is already at 55fwar to Pedroias 44. With an honest likelihood of hitting 60 this yr. I don’t see the comparability.

Jay Jaffe: The comparability I’m utilizing is predicated on bWAR, which I take advantage of for my Corridor stuff, not fWAR (apart from catchers as a result of the latter has framing information). Pedroia 51.9 profession WAR/41.0 peak/46.4 JAWS (69.5/44.4/56.9 for the requirements). Lindor 50.6/41.4/46.0 (67.7/43.2/55.4 for the requirements). Seems to be fairly near me.

Jay Jaffe: okay of us, that’s as a lot as I can get by way of for as we speak. Thanks a lot for stopping by! We’ll do it once more quickly.