Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 4/28/25

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2:02
Ben Clemens: Hey everyboyd, welcome to the chat. I’m going to present it about 3 minutes to let the queue refill after which get began
2:05
Ben Clemens: I used to be at yesterday’s recreation and let me let you know, a walkoff little league dwelling run is electrical
2:05
Nonetheless April: With solely two days left in April, what’s probably the most “it’s nonetheless April” factor proper now that you simply assume will not apply in Could?
2:05
Ben Clemens: I wrote about Victor Scott for tomorrow, so I’ll say: Victor Scott having a under league common zone price
2:05
Farhandrew Zaidman: Bobby Miller and Dalton Speeding – one is a post-hype, stuff+ monster who can’t appear to land his secondaries. The opposite is a Michael Busch-esque “he can hit however doesn’t have a place and is blocked on this roster” prospect. Do both of those dudes play significant innings for the Dodgers in 2025, or are each commerce bait?
2:06
Ben Clemens: I believe Speeding has an inexpensive likelihood as an damage substitute, kind of. If one among Ohtani, Smith, or Freeman misses time, I can see him getting rotated in. Miller appears like he might perhaps use a change in surroundings
2:06
David Stearns: whats mistaken with Nimmo? He’s been horrible because the second half of final 12 months and is now extra aggressive than ever swinging on the first pitch 41.9% of the time. May he be damage, unfortunate or an unsightly decline?
2:06
Ben Clemens: Good dialogue of this on the Mets broadcast final week, truly
2:07
Ben Clemens: Keith Hernandez surmised that the early-count aggression has been weighing on his late-count selectiveness sufficient that it’s a nasty tradeoff
2:07
Ben Clemens: and that he’s simply gotten into unhealthy habits round that that have to be mounted
2:07
Ben Clemens: I can see it
2:07
Tim Tawa: Enjoyable participant with a latest debut. Not a lot prospect hype, however the underlying plate abilities + energy + pace appear legit. Is he gonna stick in ARI?
2:08
Ben Clemens: Nah, I believe the explanation they known as up Tawa as a substitute of giving Jordan Lawlar the reps is that they count on it to be a brief opening with Ketel Marte coming again. Perhaps he’ll settle right into a rotational function as a multi place backup, however usually talking, I believe he’s only a good function participant
2:08
Zach: In gentle of Eugenio Suarez’s 4 HR recreation – would you fairly hit 4 HR in a loss, or throw a no-hitter however lose?
2:08
Ben Clemens: throw a no hitter however lose
2:08
Ben Clemens: b/c man, that’s wild
2:08
Jorge Polanco: It’s virtually could, am I truly good?
2:09
Ben Clemens: article popping out about him quickly, by Davy Andrews
2:09
Ben Clemens: so I’ll say: ask Davy
2:09
Why At all times Mets: Juan Soto. He’s gonna be high-quality proper? I believe he’s gonna be high-quality however some Mets are already out
2:10
Endy Chavez: Mets followers shouldn’t be frightened about Soto proper? As a result of Mets followers are frightened about Soto.
2:10
Ben Clemens: He’s gonna be high-quality
2:10
Ben Clemens: I’d say, take a breath
2:11
Ben Clemens: Think about how good you need to be for a 121 wRC+ regardless of a nasty BABIP to have followers freaking out
2:11
Rube: As you had been operating by your depth iterations, did you come to any conclusions about pitcher v hitter depth? I assume the probability of the whole zeros of finest gamers usually tend to come from the pitching aspect.
2:11
Ben Clemens: actually, probably not, I believe that the counterpoint is that almost all groups have greater than 5 starters price of starters, if that is sensible
2:12
Ben Clemens: I didn’t have a look at it in wild depth b/c I didn’t see something apparent at first, but it surely felt like the large predictor was having a great participant, not the place that good participant performed
2:12
Visitor: Does it make sense so as to add Clayton Kershaw as a stash decide?
2:12
Ben Clemens: When you’ve got the area. I’m contemplating it in Ottoneu the place I’ve a number of too many starters in the meanwhile
2:12
Smokin’ Jim Leyland: Not likely a query, however the Tigers are taking part in some nice baseball proper now, no? A number of high quality at-bats on offense, the place even Javy Baez and Tork seem like completely different gamers from a 12 months in the past – with the identical nice pitching we’ve come to count on. Combine in aggressive baserunning that takes each benefit potential and fielding that turns balls in play into outs – and the tip result’s enjoyable! I believe they’ve an actual shot to take the AL this 12 months.
2:13
Ben Clemens: Completely, I believe the Tigers are very enjoyable, as we sort of anticipated
2:13
Ben Clemens: a Tork post-hype breakout can be unbelievable
2:13
Ben Clemens: and seems to be occurring
2:13
Ben Clemens: CF Javy has been enjoyable
2:13
Ben Clemens: love watching the Tigers
2:13
Oaktown Blues: The place would you peg Tyler Soderstrom’s true expertise wRC+? Not a lot disagreement between his wOBA and xwOBA proper now…
2:15
Ben Clemens: That’s probably not how you can use xwOBA
2:16
Ben Clemens: however like… 125-135 wRC+ or one thing? I like a number of abilities he has displayed
2:17
Ben Clemens: I’m most impressed by his plate self-discipline. He’s at all times been fairly good there however holding onto it even whereas hitting very well is nice
2:17
Ben Clemens: what if he had been tempted to swing out of his sneakers b/c he’s hitting nicely. That’d be unhealthy, however that hasn’t occurred
2:17
danny: underlying stats (ridiculously low babip, nice xwoba) recommend that Mike Trout is because of go on an enormous run. is there something that may lead you to assume in any other case?
2:17
Ben Clemens: Nope, I are inclined to agree
2:17
Ben Clemens: Watched a bunch of him previously few weeks and he seems very harmful
2:17
Shaq_Diesel: Clearly Chandler Simpson received’t BABIP .460 all 12 months. How doable is a loopy quantity like.420 although?  Child’s a star already,
2:17
Ben Clemens: In all probability not doable provided that nobody has ever had that prime of a BABIP
2:18
Ben Clemens: I do assume that he might find yourself within the excessive 300’s although
2:19
JT: Is Julio Rodriguez simply not that good offensively? He can’t appear to tug any fastball over about 93. Strategy varies wildly from AB to AB – typically spitting on nasty secondaries, typically flailing away within the dust.  He’s simply crushed apart. None of this appears to have modified in any respect since his rookie 12 months
2:19
Ben Clemens: I’m beginning to get a bit bit frightened
2:19
Ben Clemens: by the strategy, basically, such as you stated
2:20
Ben Clemens: That stated, he’s been getting brutally unfortunate this 12 months
2:20
Ben Clemens: it’s actually exhausting for a man like him, who hits the ball exhausting and is quick, to run a babip this low
2:20
Ben Clemens: he’s hitting into tons of unfortunate outs
2:21
Ben Clemens: I believe that I’ve lowered my high finish forecast for him, however like, he’s nonetheless a star
2:21
Baltimore Astros: Arduous for me to not see the Orioles scenario and assume: not as simple because the Astros made it look, huh?  OR – it’s that simple, Elias is simply leaping on rakes?
2:21
Ben Clemens: Oh that’s what I believe too
2:21
Ben Clemens: it’s so exhausting!
2:21
Ben Clemens: if there have been just a few cheat code, everybody would do it
2:22
Visitor: Have you ever been extra impressed by Brendan Donovan or Matthew Liberatore up thus far?
2:24
Ben Clemens: In all probability Liberatore, however largely as a result of he wasn’t doing it earlier than
2:24
overly blasé mike elias: With the Orioles’ rotation wanting simply as unhealthy because it does, what choices have they got to enhance within the short-term? Gibson seems like he’ll be prepared quickly, and hopefully Rogers isn’t far behind, however are both of them sufficient of an enchancment to staunch the bleeding? Shorter-term, are there some other inner depth choices (is Brnovich even near prepared) to eat a number of innings? And that’s not even touching how defeated the offense seems, at the least proper now.
2:24
Ben Clemens: ah sure, “when Kyle Gibson is prepared we’ll be saved”
2:24
Ben Clemens: the final resort of scoundrels
2:24
Ben: What extra can Roman Anthony do to get the decision? Is it merely a roster challenge in the meanwhile?
2:24
Ben Clemens: yeah, completely a roster challenge
2:24
D: What’s it about Wilmer Flores and Jose Iglesias that, regardless of them reliably placing up good numbers 12 months after 12 months, they appear by no means to have the ability to safe market worth for his or her companies?
2:25
Ben Clemens: I imply…. I’m a giant Wilmer Flores fan, and that isn’t how I’d describe him
2:25
Ben Clemens: Prior to now 5 seasons, he performed 500 PA as soon as. He’s had a 110 wRC+ because the brief aspect of a platoon. He was fairly unhealthy final 12 months
2:26
Ben Clemens: love Wilmer, and he’s a fan favourite. However like, platoon 1B’s don’t receives a commission
2:26
Jamey: It looks as if the Cardinals hitters throughout the board have higher approaches this 12 months. Most of them have larger stroll charges, decrease Okay charges, and customarily higher batting strains.
2:27
Ben Clemens: Yeah. The hitters are simply far more affected person. There’s been a number of discuss ‘harm counts/defend counts’ from Playing cards sources and it actually tracks with how they’re hitting
2:27
Ben Clemens: I believe it’s wonderful and an excellent signal
2:27
Jamey: How a lot of that may be attributed to teaching modifications and the way a lot is random?
2:27
Ben Clemens: I’d attribute it to teaching, however I’m unsure how a lot of it’s like, use this one approach, and the way a lot of it’s vibes-based, issues really feel good so the coaching works higher
2:27
Matt Shaw: Why has everybody instantly gone from “can’t miss prospect” to, “have a look at all these flaws?”
2:27
Ben Clemens: That is the pure arc of prospects
2:27
Ben Clemens: individuals look lots higher hitting towards minor leaguers
2:29
Monopoly Moneyball: How annoying is it going to be to should footnote season stats at Sutter and Steinbrenner in each future article?
2:29
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume Sutter will match that invoice
2:29
Ben Clemens: they’re going to play there for some time! and it performs fairly regular
2:29
Ben Clemens: actually perhaps coliseum stats ought to be footnoted
2:29
Ben Clemens: it performs far more offensively than the coliseum, and it’ll play much more so in the summertime
2:30
Ben Clemens: however Steinbrenner is the weirdest, take a look at Michael Rosen’s have a look at it for extra
2:30
Pitching Philosophy: It appears like yearly we marvel on the quantity of pitching expertise and depth the Dodgers have, just for 60-80% of these pitchers to endure main accidents.  Actually a few of it is a operate of the workforce prioritizing expertise over observe document of well being however might a few of this be as a result of manner they construct up their pitchers?
2:30
Ben Clemens: at the least partially b/c of the best way they construct them up and partially b/c they draft and commerce for this archetype
2:30
Kevinc2020: Im in determined want for saves. Would you advocate Cruz or Leasure? If I needed to get one
2:30
Ben Clemens: I’m an enormous Cruz head
2:30
Ben Clemens: like, he would possibly stroll some dudes, however he’s legit unhittable
2:30
Okra: NL West has 4 actually good groups.  % likelihood the Rockies match or win fewer than White Sox 41 wins final 12 months?  60%?  They’re so unhealthy
2:31
Ben Clemens: Dan Szymborski simply wrote about this
2:31
Nate: minimal 30 PA, are you able to guess who the Royals’ 2nd finest hitter by wRC+ is with out wanting on the leaderboard
2:31
Ben Clemens: oh man, this sounds exhausting
2:32
Ben Clemens: uhhhhh…. Massey?
2:33
Ben Clemens: nope, good previous dependable Mark Canha
2:34
Henry Dodger: Is Brett Baty finally a starter on a second-division workforce?
2:34
Ben Clemens: That looks as if the precise proper spot for him
2:34
Monopoly Moneyball: neglect in regards to the document, what’s the worst MLB workforce you’ve ever seen?
2:34
Ben Clemens: the early 2000s Tigers
2:34
Ben Clemens: my grampa was a giant fan and was continuously regaling me with tales of woe
2:35
Jonah: Final 12 months we noticed groups pay what looks as if a premium for good-but-not-great reduction pitching on the deadline (Estevez, Adam, even Gregory Soto).  Do you count on this development to proceed at this 12 months’s deadline?
2:36
Ben Clemens: it simply appears like the best place to improve is there
2:36
Ben Clemens: and groups are going to be very eager about upgrades that don’t price them core long-term items
2:36
Ben Clemens: so paying a bit over sticker worth for relievers appears tempting consequently
2:36
Oaktown Blues: Are you able to clarify what’s mistaken with utilizing xWOBA that manner (Re: Soderstrom)? Isn’t it a simple solution to test that he’s sort of “earned” his outcomes up to now?
2:37
Ben Clemens: I imply, it beats nothing. However whereas it’s much less unstable than the outcome-based wOBA, at the least in small samples, it’s nonetheless based mostly on a number of unstable stuff
2:38
Ben Clemens: line drive price, what number of flares you’re hitting, that sort of tihng
2:38
Ben Clemens: like I didn’t assume that 138 PA of a .276 xwOBA in 2023 was his true expertise both
2:38
Ben Clemens: xwOBA would say that on the subject of contact high quality, it’s not like his outcomes have been luck-driven
2:39
Ben Clemens: however easy logic would inform us that he’s most likely not a real expertise 171 wRC+ hitter. as a result of there are only a few of these, and but 16 gamers have an xwOBA larger than Soderstrom’s this 12 months
2:39
Kevin: Matt Olso is crushing the ball this 12 months…however principally into the bottom.  Can groundball price naturally regress or does that require a mechanical adjustment?
2:39
Ben Clemens: it’s a little bit of each, which I do know is annoying
2:40
RAGBRAI: Is N Marte lastly dwelling as much as his hype? Perhaps not this good however a viable contributor this season.
2:42
Ben Clemens: I’m cautiously optimistic. There’s no manner he’s going to maintain hanging out so not often whereas nonetheless swinging and lacking so typically
2:42
Ben Clemens: However I believe that the promise of Marte was that he was pretty aggressive and but wasn’t going to strike out a ton, in order that his energy might play
2:43
Ben Clemens: I perceive why projectdions are gradual to decrease his strikeout price, b/c the underlying numbers look much less good than the headline. However I believe it’s motion in the proper course and I’m extra optimistic than they’re
2:43
Visitor: Do you foresee a Gold Glove for Austin Riley ultimately or do you are feeling he wont surpass Hayes/Chapman/Arenado?
2:43
Ben Clemens: I like Riley’s protection however yeah, the NL is simply powerful
2:44
Sonny: Is that this the 12 months MLB will lastly let Charlie Morton retire?
2:44
Rob: You possibly can power one commerce proper now with the aim of accelerating your enjoyment of this season probably the most.  What deal are you making?
2:44
Ben Clemens: oh, I’d commerce Elly to the Giants
2:44
Ben Clemens: after which go to extra video games
2:46
jimmy landing: AJ Smith-Shawver is prepared for a 2 begin subsequent  week?
2:46
Mateo: You’ve most likely bought the condolence already, however I felt actually unhealthy for you when the White Sox misplaced 1-0 in recreation 2 as a result of that was possible your finest shot to have them in sole possession of first place within the AL Central
2:46
Ben Clemens: oh yeah, that wager was very enjoyable but it surely ended FAST
2:46
Ben Clemens: or fairly, that prediction
2:47
Ben Clemens: I treally thought I may need it
2:47
Greg: Have you ever seen Oneil Cruz stealing bases? He hasn’t been thrown out in his final 30+ makes an attempt, but it surely looks as if the jumps he will get are atrocious. I get the sense he’s been fortunate (in fact he’s additionally very quick and good at sliding) and I think about regression is quickly to come back.
2:47
Ben Clemens: I’ve watched a great quantity of it
2:47
Ben Clemens: the highest finish pace simply makes it work, which at all times seems bizarre
2:47
Ben Clemens: and that i agree, unhealthy little jumps however then bam he’s simply too quick
2:47
Ben Clemens: so enjoyable to observe
2:47
Dayn Perry Rock Metropolis: DAYN. PERRY.
2:48
Visitor: Seeking to promote Munoz for some offensive assist, would Albies be definitely worth the purchase low? Or Hunter Greene? (Though a lack of ADP)
2:48
Ben Clemens: I’d want Greene to Albies however, he’s not a hitter
2:49
Ben Clemens: if you happen to’re okay with that – look, Albies hasn’t even been good this 12 months!
2:49
Ben Clemens: he’s a purchase low with a 107 wRC+ over his final 2300 PA
2:50
Ben Clemens: I believe that he’s a greater actual life participant than fantasy participant
2:50
Nate: Issues aren’t going nice when 36-year-old Mark Canha is your 2nd finest hitter! (love him, he’s nice)
2:50
Ben Clemens: It’s very true (sorry, too many messages, yhou guys are nice)
2:50
Ben Clemens: Canha is actually enjoyable, however when a freely accessible minor league free agent castoff is your second finest hitter, you constructed the workforce badly
2:50
Ben Clemens: this was the Royals’ drawback final 12 months too, to be clear
2:51
Ben Clemens: they usually at the least took some steps to repair it. Like Mark Canha!
2:51
Phil: The 2012 Crimson Sox had been the worst genuinely proficient workforce I ever noticed–that they had a HOFer and a near-HOFer (who put up 5 WAR that 12 months), and a number of other not too long ago good pitchers, they usually didn’t lose 100 video games or something, however the vibe was simply. so. unhealthy. Can’t consider any workforce like that not too long ago. The Braves and Orioles aren’t shut. . . but.
2:51
Ben Clemens: Oh that’s a special query however enjoyable
2:52
Ben Clemens: the Playing cards in 2023 are up there, these guys didn’t count on to be that unhealthy
2:54
Ben Clemens: I believe it’s one among these groups that’s unexpectedly unhealthy, mainly
2:54
Matt: McNeil in CF is fascinating to me in addition to scary. Ever because the Mets traded for Acuna I believed he would transfer to heart. The best way McNeil performs balls within the nook OF place doesn’t appear to be one thing that can translate to CF. How lengthy do you assume this experiment lasts?
2:54
Ben Clemens: I really don’t perceive it
2:54
Ben Clemens: I’m gonna watch, for certain
2:55
Ben Clemens: however yeah, I don’t have a look at Jeff McNeil and assume ‘oh, heart fielder’
2:55
Scorching Corna: Do you see any golf equipment in want of 3B assist (Cubs, Blue Jays, Angels, Brewers, Dodgers) trying to Curtis Mead as a purchase low? The prospect shine is off however he’s by no means been given a shot to play on a regular basis within the huge leagues and has attractive combo of bat pace and low whiff charges & is seemingly blocked by Caminero/Aranda/Diaz in Tampa.
2:55
Ben Clemens: I assume… however I don’t see the Rays itching to commerce him
2:55
Ben Clemens: if that they had some urgent want, then sure
2:55
JT: Yamamoto’s Stuff+ is already under common. How do you count on that contract to age?
2:56
Ben Clemens: simply high-quality, and provided that his stuff+ is strictly the identical as final 12 months’s, his location is nice, his pitching+ is nice, and his Bot Stuff has improved, I’m unsure that Stuff+ is the proper encapsulation of what’s happening
2:56
Ben Clemens: Additionally I don’t THINK his splitter has gotten meaningfully worse this 12 months
2:57
Ben Clemens: Stuff+ does, however I don’t actually purchase it. He’s throwing it tougher however getting extra horizontal motion whereas killing elevate higher. It’s lacking extra bats and drawing extra grounders when opponents hit it
2:57
Royale with Cheese: Have you ever heard something about Ragans and if he’s going to overlook a flip or hit the IL? Should resolve between him and Castillo for a weekly league actually quickly however haven’t seen any replace since Friday. Thanks!
2:57
Ben Clemens: Haven’t heard a phrase
2:57
Martin: Any ideas on Hayden Birdsong
2:57
Ben Clemens: Must be beginning
2:57
Ben Clemens: Jordan Hicks was sitting 92-93 yday, he’s crying out for a return ot relieving
2:57
My Son Bort: Colt Keith launch angle is within the single digits. With Torres again, Tork resurgence and McKinstry taking part in anyplace, would it not make sense to go down and common swings to make changes?
2:58
Ben Clemens: ehhhhh…. I’d fairly give him an opportunity within the majors, personally
2:58
Ben Clemens: BUT! That’s provided that they will discover a cheap place for him to play, and proper now they can’t
2:59
Ben Clemens: so if it’s between no possibilities in any respect or rebuilding within the minors, I’d make certain he’s okay with it and take a look at the minors. There aren’t sufficient 1b/2b/3b/dh reps to go round on the workforce in the meanwhile
2:59
Ben Clemens: and Kerry Carpenter is simply the superior LHH choice in the meanwhile
2:59
NL Central: regardless of the precise outcomes I nonetheless really feel very unconfident in regards to the Cubs; is there not tons of potential for possible regression with Busch + PCA + catchers overperforming, suspicious rotation depth with Justin Steele out, and a horrid bullpen? My intestine tells me the Brewers pull one other rabbit out of a hat and take the division by default
2:59
Ben Clemens: I’m NOT feeling good in regards to the Brewers this 12 months
3:00
Ben Clemens: this workforce feels scary skinny to me. theyir offense might be not going to maintain getting such good contributions from hitters outdoors the Chourio/Contreras tier, and I don’t assume Contreras will enhance sufficient to offset that. And yeah,t he pitching is simply kinda ugly, as anticipated
3:01
Ben Clemens: I’ve the Cubs with an edge although they too have a weak rotation
3:01
Ben Clemens: The Reds are literally my darkish horse
3:01
Ghost of Wade Boggs: 2008 Tigers had been truly genuinely unhealthy regardless of having: Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Gary Sheffield, Curtis Granderson, Pudge Rodriguez
3:02
Ben Clemens: that was a bizarre workforce. not lengthy after they went to the WS
3:02
Jg: can somebody educate Bobby Witt and the remainder of the royals how you can truly steal a base the baserunning has been atrocious I can’t bear in mind extra tootblans
3:02
Ben Clemens: whoa what occurred right here?
3:02
Ben Clemens: ugly baserunning 12 months from a great baserunning workforce
3:02
Nate: Yeah the one cause we’re not speaking in regards to the Royals in the identical breath because the Orioles is that the pitching has continued to be good – although for the way lengthy is anybody’s guess (Lugo and Wacha have each confirmed their age to some extent, Ragans- recurring cramping points)
3:02
Ben Clemens: completely agreed with this
3:03
Ben Clemens: however like…. the pitching is nice!
3:03
Remainder of season: What do you see from Pavin smith. He’s made some main modifications over the previous couple of years, and once more with the ok%. First borderline full-time alternative. Ros opinion?
3:03
Ben Clemens: ehhhhh…. it’s 86 PA
3:03
Ben Clemens: he was good final 12 months too, although
3:03
Ben Clemens: in restricted time
3:03
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume our projections are far off
3:03
Ben Clemens: they’ve him as a 114 wRC+ hitter, kinda good however squarely within the first base useless zone
3:05
Ben Clemens: I don’t see something to make me transfer off of that central projection
3:05
Farhandrew Zaidman: Any “proficient workforce performing manner underneath expectations” has to incorporate 2021-2022 White Sox, imo. However I assume the 20/20 hindsight query with them of “however had been they really proficient?” is honest, although.
3:05
Ben Clemens: playoff workforce in 2020, abysmal in 2021, but in addition perhaps they had been simply unhealthy all alongside
3:06
wheelhouse: odds that cedric mullins will get traded on the deadline whether or not or not the orioles are within the hunt?
3:06
Bosoxforlife: Masataka Yoshida’s presence on the Crimson Sox 40 man roster is a significant stumbling block. He’s just about invisible and has utterly disappeared from any and all Crimson Sox speak. They should eat all his contract and ship him to Colorado, who can use any assist they will get, for a low degree lottery decide.
3:06
Ben Clemens: That appears cheap to me. Any commerce goes to contain the Sox consuming all the cash
3:07
Ben Clemens: however that’s most likely price it at this level
3:07
DJ Tofu: Hicks’ velo yesterday fluctuated a bit. However in his final inning he was averaging 95-96.
3:07
Ben Clemens: look, right here’s his day by day sinker common velo this 12 months:
3:07
Ben Clemens: 2 mph slower than his next-slowest recreation
3:08
Ben Clemens: he was popping a TON of 92’s and 93’s and hit the ‘oh my god i’m getting shelled simply get me by this inning’ button late
3:08
Ben Clemens: but it surely was undoubtedly a really regarding begin for me
3:08
Batso Rizzo: Aaron Decide’s OPS is 1200+ with a 700+ SLG and he ought to most likely have 2 or 3 extra dwelling runs. Simply enjoyable to consider.
3:08
Ben Clemens: he’s simply actually loopy
3:08
Bosoxforlife: Are you as shocked as I’m that the Orioles are headed to the basement earlier than their touted prospects ever actually bought their act collectively. To see that the highest three fWAR gamers are Mullins, O’Hearn and Urias is stunning and the younger guys aren’t any the place to be discovered.
3:08
Ben Clemens: completely stunning to me
3:09
Ben Clemens: Gunnar being damage after which beginning gradual makes this stat marginally deceptive, however yeah
3:10
Ben Clemens: look I’ve been saying that the O’s haven’t been making good use of their window for years
3:10
Ben Clemens: you’re going to have a 12 months like this typically
3:10
Ben Clemens: and Adley’s clock is ticking
3:10
Ben Clemens: actually stunning
3:10
Krusty: What are the probabilities that we’ll see a context inclusive model of WAR any time quickly? I’m hoping for one based mostly on re24?
3:11
Ben Clemens: mmmmmm, I don’t assume it’s in the direction of the highest of our precedence record at present, we’re engaged on positional changes first
3:11
Ben Clemens: however I’ll perform a little little bit of speaking about it within the background subsequent time we do priorities
3:11
Ben Clemens: could be simpler than I believe to simply fold it into what we already do, we’ll see
3:11
Farhandrew Zaidman: Are you shocked that Pages now by some means seems just like the Dodgers’ finest hitter after wanting misplaced for the three weeks earlier than that?
3:12
Ben Clemens: a bit, solely as a result of I believed he’d look good however not like the very best hitter b/c they’ve so many nice ones
3:12
O’s: Do you assume this season is the beginning of the downfall for the O’s?
3:12
Ben Clemens: I believe they’ll be higher in ’26 than ’25
3:12
Kelvin Cato: Orioles entrance workplace has mismanaged their pitching scenario indisputably, however they’re a reasonably clear “it’s nonetheless solely April” candidate. Loads of unhealthy batted ball luck on a number of of their extra proficient place gamers
3:12
Ben Clemens: agreed with this as nicely
3:12
Ben Clemens: these items occur
3:12
Ben Clemens: you’ll have down years of manufacturing, even out of your good gamers
3:12
Carl: Over the past 8 or so years, baseball writers have by no means felt good in regards to the Brewers. Hasn’t stopped the Brewers from being good. Offense isn’t wanting wonderful, however pitching has been completely high-quality after a tough opening weekend. Anticipated the Reds to be nearer to final than 1st, and I don’t assume some unsustainable small-sample performances on offense up to now actually modifications my thoughts.
3:12
Ben Clemens: we’ll see!
3:12
Ben Clemens: I’d argue that I’ve steadily been very excessive on the Brewers
3:13
Ben Clemens: however, our fashions have actually underrated them
3:13
Ben Clemens: not that I steadily peruse season over/undres, however I’ve had much more of Brewers over than Brewers underneath in my life
3:13
MF Luder: What are your emotions on Quinn Priester?
3:13
Ben Clemens: there was a very cool article on BP about how Quinn Priester would possibly, in a great world the place pitchers can change their arsenal to finest go well with their pure skills, Priester might be a hidden discover by the Brewers
3:14
Ben Clemens: I imply…. probably true, however he has undoubtedly not been capable of do it but
3:14
Ben Clemens: he’s strolling as many as he strikes out and may’t miss a bat to avoid wasting his life. if it weren’t for the truth that they’re so racked by damage, he’d be within the minors engaged on his fastball shapes
3:15
Jason: What do you assume is the trigger for a AAAA participant?  Is it simply the dramatic enhance in high quality of pitching within the majors or is it one thing completely different?
3:15
Ben Clemens: I believe it’s largely that, however I believe it’s additionally that many gamers have abilities which are at their finest towards lower-level opposition
3:15
Ben Clemens: it’s very exhausting to see proactively, although maybe groups are higher at it than I’m
3:15
Ben Clemens: however a man who principally punishes mistake sliders, that kinda factor
3:15
Visitor: We check with Pete Crow-Armstrong as PCA, Christian Encarnacion-Strand as CES… why don’t we use the identical shorthand for AJ Smith-Shawver?
3:16
Ben Clemens: Jason Martinez was speaking to me about this within the preseason. “All of Braves Twitter is speaking about Smith-Shawver however he wants a greater acronym nickname”
3:16
Max: Bregman is having the very best begin to a season of his profession, small pattern dimension and he’s not going to take care of a .364 babip all 12 months, however his exhausting hit price is up and his iffb are manner down. It’s not merely Fenway both, his street numbers are higher than his dwelling. How a lot of this do you assume is sustainable?
3:17
Ben Clemens: I believe that the BABIP is gonna come down however you need to be happy that he’s swinging tougher than ever with out lacking extra
3:17
Ben Clemens: and catching the ball out entrance greater than ever
3:17
Ben Clemens: all sounds wonderful ot me
3:18
Ben Clemens: alright, on that be aware, I’m gonna go hearken to my brother in regulation defend his PhD. Protection! Protection! I have already got the cheers prepared
3:18
Ben Clemens: have an excellent week, everybody

 

Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He will be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.



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