Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/24/25

Dan Szymborski: ITS PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME

Dan Szymborski: Nicely, might not. I by no means preferred peanut butter and jelly. Principally as a result of I solely like peanut butter by itself

I watch the rockies: it’s “April” however is Kyle Karros higher than Ryan McMahon proper now?

Dan Szymborski: PROBABLY a stretch, however I don’t suppose the gulf is as massive because the Rockies might imagine

Dan Szymborski: Particularly if ZiPS is appropriate in loving his protection

Miggy: Is PCA prepared for a get away?

Ben: Clearly PCA isn’t going to run a 146 wrc+ all yr proper? RIGHT?

Dan Szymborski: What, get away MORE than an 11-WAR tempo?

Dan Szymborski: Suffice it to say, that’s not going to occur! I believe

Dan Szymborski: It’s good for PCA to begin getting some actual consideration. It’s normally his brother that will get all the eye for proudly owning the Twins

Ethan: Which handful of stats provide the most confidence that the mets (even with regression on the pitching aspect) could be a 95 plus win crew?

Dan Szymborski: Alonso going completely apeshit offensively definitely helps

Ben: Am I loopy as a Cubs fan for wanting the Cubs to go all in on a Pablo Lopez/Carlos Correa packaged deal? Possibly throw in Griffin Jax?

Dan Szymborski: No, you’re not loopy

The Oriole Chicken: Is it useful to society to have at the least some variety of athletes who seem to be they stand just for conscientiousness and teamwork–and simply keep away from all different subjects of their skilled lives? (Assume: Cal Ripken.) I believe the reply might be sure; however it’s not honest to foist this on any particular person participant. And it doesn’t imply each participant should be judged by way of this as the perfect. Additionally these folks needs to be understood to have actual inside lives that transcend the facade.

Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure it actually issues a lot somehow?

Dan Szymborski: Additionally, Cal Ripken will likely be *65* this yr, which completely blows my goddamn thoughts

CHRIS MAD DOG RUSSO: HEY DAN, LOVE YOUR SHOW. WHAT’S UP WITH ADLEY RUTSCHMAN? I MEAN COME ON!

Dan Szymborski: The O’s simply stopped hitting since tax day or so!

Natitude Adjuster: I beloved Michael Baumann’s article on Cedric Mullins. Worryingly from the Orioles’ perspective, I observed that Ced is third on the checklist of wOBA minus xwOBA in 2025 (min 70 PA). Ideas on that as a brute power option to see who’s underlying efficiency isn’t well-matched to their precise outcomes?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not a foul approach to take a look at it

Bruce: Is there any publicly out there option to see minor league barrel charges?

Dan Szymborski: Minor League statcast search!

Kevin: Thanks for the chat Dan.  re: CIN  greatest guess rating who carves out most PT and fantasy stat relevance in 2025? McLain, Lux, Marte, Candelario.

Dan Szymborski: Identical order as you!

James: Does Ryan Gusto have potential or is he a depth piece?

Dan Szymborski: He’s in all probability not THIS good, however he’s seemingly at the least a very good mid-bullpen man

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS had him as a 103 ERA+ as a reliever

Dan Szymborski: now, he’s been higher than that, however that he’s pitching effectively is SOMETHING

Trash Panda: Regardless of having by far the most effective protection in keeping with OAA, the Cardinals are actually underperforming their FIP. Is the crew really first rate as they’ve the ninth greatest wRC+ as effectively. Bullpen is dangerous for certain although main to shut sport losses.

The Oriole Chicken: If this venerable web site is to be believed–and I’ve no purpose to suppose it shouldn’t be–then the next is true: “If Tyler O’Neill opts out of his contract after this yr, which is his proper, the Orioles’ solely payroll dedication for 2026 will likely be a $1 million buyout of Andrew Kittredge’s membership choice.”  Craziness.  What ought to the Orioles do?

Dan Szymborski: Greater than they’ve for certain!

Dan Szymborski: As an O’s fan, I stay completely beside myself that they so half-assed getting a pitcher this winter

Walt: When is Mike Elias going to be fired?

Dan Szymborski: I doubt in-season, however I believe he could possibly be in bother if the O’s end 76-86

Dan Szymborski: or one thing

Dan Szymborski: As a result of there’s no excuse for that in win-now mode

Greg: Groups have been reluctant to signal older FA’s, even low cost ones just lately. Brandon Belt final yr, Mark Canha, and so forth.

Andrew Heaney signed in late Feb for five.25m

Has there been an overcorrection by groups with respect to the growing old curve? Is there a doable market inefficiency rising with brief time period, low greenback contracts to growing old guys that also have stuff within the tank?

I notice you may have a counter instance on the Pirates within the type of Tommy Pham, however Heaney signing for five.25m on February twenty second appeared wild on the time and much more bananas now

Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure groups are overcorrecting. Clearly, a few of these low cost guys are going to work out. However a ton will not be.

Phil: The opposite evening, the Sox broadcasters talked about that Casas was batting .000 in opposition to starters and .313 in opposition to relievers. Since then he nonetheless doesn’t have successful off a starter and has hit two house runs off relievers. Have you learnt find out how to get this cut up? It doesn’t appear to be within the Fangraphs splits software. I’m questioning how this compares–it appears fairly excessive. I’m additionally questioning after all whether or not there’s something to it or it’s simply small-sample weirdness.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know find out how to do it simply

Dan Szymborski: Like if I’ve the log, I can simply separate out the primary pitcher he faces every sport

Dan Szymborski: However systematically I’m unsure

Von Hayes:

Smokin’ Jim Leyland: True/False: the Tigers have been the most effective crew within the AL to date? Assuming “True” is your reply – appears encouraging that they’re doing this with a dinged up bullpen and no Parker Meadows/Matt Vierling, no?

Dan Szymborski: True

Dan Szymborski: And sure

Dan Szymborski: The pitching has been completely insane

Anaheim 92806: Mike Trout continues to be good.  Talk about.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose that’s the query actually. It’s been extra about attendance

Snid: How can I erase from reminiscence that I drafted Jordan Romano?

Dan Szymborski: No tariffs on bourbon,

James: Has Hunter Brown graduated to ace standing?

Dan Szymborski: He’s definitely making the case

Joe: Is it doable the Orioles are simply dangerous? In that case, the place the heck do they go from right here?

Dan Szymborski: THIS dangerous? Most likely not. Little has gone proper for the rotation. However it was by no means going to be GREAT

Dan Szymborski: That’s why you see numerous groups within the excessive 80s wins. They could be good, however there’s danger

Jake Mangum: How a lot would my projections enhance if I modified my title to Jake Magnum?

Dan Szymborski: .45 WAR

Bob Loblaw: Any inside dialogue round getting playing data on this website? I can’t be the one degenerate baseball fan.

Dan Szymborski: It’s one thing we’ve shied away from doing

Dan Szymborski: I used to do a prop guess piece yearly at ESPN, however that’s about so far as I used to be prepared to go

Dan Szymborski: And I believe like half our full-timers are BBWAA members, and now we have extra restrictions

Stephen: Feels bizarre to say this together with his batting common being so excessive, however ought to we count on a serious efficiency decline from Goldschmidt going ahead? xwOBA wanting fairly ugly

Dan Szymborski: I believe so. BABIP is way stickier for hitters than pitchers, however Goldy is definitely NOT a close to .500 BABIP man

Dan Szymborski: no one is

Oaktown Blues: Shea Langeliers is working a dramatically decreased Okay charge in comparison with his profession. How massive does the pattern should be for that to be significant?

Dan Szymborski: It already is

Dan Szymborski: because it’s supported by contact data

I assumed it was Chili time: Hello Dan!  Ryan Walker’s final couple of outings not so bueno.  Only a tough stretch? and the way a lot leash?

Dan Szymborski: not fearful but

Visitor: Are the Dodgers mediocre? A run differential of a barely over 500 crew and numerous their wins got here in opposition to cellar dwellers just like the Braves and Rockies.

Dan Szymborski: No. I believe folks had been too loopy about them — they didn’t have an over/beneath of 105 or one thing loopy — however they’re nonetheless a superb crew

Visitor: Needing saves: Jordan Leasure, Hunter Gaddis, Will Vest, Jesus Tinnoco are the one viable FAs? What order?  Who do I drop? Tony Santillain, Matt Strahm, Jeremiah Estrada?  Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: oh expensive lord

Dan Szymborski: OK, I simply noticed leasure first

Dan Szymborski: I’d be most desirous about Vest for certain

Dan Szymborski: Gaddis is sweet and Cleveland up within the air, however you’re additionally betting in opposition to Clase’s shoulder

Dan Szymborski: if it’s a must to drop a type of three, Santillan might be the one I like least

30fwar: If Choose will get .5 fwar in his subsequent 29 PA he’ll have 30fwar in his final 2,000 PA (begin of 2022). .5 in like 5 video games is tough for people however he’s actually placing up .1 per sport proper now

steve: Do you suppose Reese Olson could be a robust mid-tier starter or is there extra upside right here?

Dan Szymborski: I believe good 2/3 man, however I’m unsure that he actually has that ace sort upside

Mike Elias: What are some sensible actions I ought to take to proper the ship?

Dan Szymborski: It would contain a time machine, which is an issue

Dan Szymborski: And it’s a must to be actually cautious altering historical past as a result of surprising issues occur

Laura: Desire Jelly sandwich. Any updates on R Anthony since data about sore shoulder?

Laura: Any new information about R Anthony?Solely enjoying DH attributable to shoulder soreness is all I’ve learn. I choose Jelly sandwich.

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t heard something NEW although I used to be beneath the impression that it was getting higher and he’d be again within the OF earlier than too lengthy

Nate: Was the rumor of MASN+ charging folks $8999 as an alternative of $89.99 true?

Dan Szymborski: First I heard of it, so no concept!

Dan Szymborski: Although as somebody who retains $0 balances, that form of factor is frightening!

Brandon Hyde: Rank the next concepts for giving us a jolt proper now: launch Mateo & name up Mayo, problem commerce Mayo or Heston or a bundle for Zebby Matthews, go all in for Alcantara or Pablo Lopez, seize an Outdated Dude like Heaney. Or one thing else??!!

Dan Szymborski: Most likely Alcantara

Dan Szymborski: I like Zebuliferous, however I’m unsure I wish to commerce Mayo or Kjerstad for him

Dan Szymborski: I nonetheless incessantly by accident name him Keston Hjerstad about 10% of the time nonetheless, BTW

Tacoby Bellsbury: It’s April!

Zach: Is Rutschman a bust?

Dan Szymborski: no

Randy: Ideas on Kurtz early callup?

Dan Szymborski: He was destroying AAA regardless of virtually no skilled expertise, how coudl they NOT

War2d2: Hello Dan! I punted 2B in my h2h 5×5 draft and now I’m regretting it as a result of my SS additionally was an unintentional punt. I floated Kyren Paris for so long as I might however I’m flailing now. I’ve Lux in there now, however L. Acuna, Torres, India, and Rafaela are all on the wire (principally for good purpose). Any recommendation for who’s probably to interrupt out (into an avg participant)?

Dan Szymborski: India is at the least fascinating at instances

Visitor: Math sanity (learn: stupidity) verify: in a pattern of 13 hitters, is there a 50/50 likelihood that 1 of them hits their 92nd percentile projection over some pattern?

Dan Szymborski: 66% likelihood of at the least one in every of 13 hitters hitting their 92nd percentile

Dan Szymborski: 49% for one in every of eight hitters

Dan Szymborski: 53% for one in every of 9 hitters

Dan Szymborski: 1-0.92^dudes

Bob Loblaw: Do you suppose Shedeur Sanders drops out of the primary spherical?

Dan Szymborski: I believe he’s a second rounder

Choose: His xwoba is larger than his two 11fwar seasons. How is he nonetheless doing this

Dan Szymborski: judicial supremacy

David Stearns: Possibly we should always cease questioning David Stearns and the best way he places collectively pitching staffs?

Dan Szymborski: He’s definitely making that case!

The Oriole Chicken: Don’t look now, however Jackson Holliday’s wRC+ = 99!  (0 WAR, although.)

Fried Rice: In 2030, the highest 5 hitting 1b will likely be…….

Dan Szymborski: Could also be somebody not within the league but

Dan Szymborski: Preseason, ZiPS had Prime 5 first baseman in 2030 as Vlad, Eldridge, Manzardo, Isaac, and Busch

Dan Szymborski: however the error vary right here is clearly HUGE

Aaron Choose: Greatest clear hitter of integration period?

Dan Szymborski: In case you rely amphetamines as not being clear, it could very effectively be Choose

Dan Szymborski: In case you don’t disqualify due to amphetamines, then Bonds

Dan Szymborski: And earlier than somebody says it, no, Fay Vincent didn’t ban steroids in his memo. Even he didn’t suppose he did. His memo principally banned Pat Gillick or Dave Dombrowski from utilizing steroids.

Bing Bong: Which of your colleagues would you least wish to get right into a bodily altercation with? No guidelines. Which one would you most wish to combat?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not going to say the second, as a result of that might completely be hostile work atmosphere!

Dan Szymborski: The primary one, Jay, since you ought to by no means be dumb sufficient to select a combat with somebody who has nice mustache

Dan Szymborski: A mustache can add as many 75 kilos of pure muscle to your projection

Dan Szymborski: Me, if I shave my beard and depart a mustache, I appear like Gacy. So no mustache

Oaktown Blues: Who do you suppose ends the yr because the A’s WAR chief? I really feel like Rooker, Butler, Wilson, Soderstrom, and Langeliers are all prospects

Dan Szymborski: I’d put my (theoretical) cash on Rooker

Mustaches for everybody!: By which order do the next gamers retire?  Trout, Freeman, Giancarlo, Kershaw, Goldy, Sale

Dan Szymborski: Kershaw, Godly, Sale, Giancarlo, Freeman, Trout

Chucky: The O’s drawback just isn’t solely their lack of pitching. Their lineup is an east coast model of the Rockies. And apart from the O’s might need skated by not resigning Burnes, who’s appeared something however spectacular.

Dan Szymborski: the Rockies WISH that they had a 106 wRC+

Pete Alonso new strategy: Given how Pete Alonso’s Baseball Savant web page is resembling peak Juan Soto, and numerous the metrics that are typically “sticky” are exhibiting such dramatic enchancment, is there now purpose to imagine he’ll age rather more gracefully than beforehand thought? I extremely doubt the enhancements to his strategy will all of the sudden disappear, and his pure energy is so insanely excessive (simply have a look at that double on a pitcher’s pitch) that it will have to fall very far to even strategy common

Dan Szymborski: I’m positively desirous about seeing the ZiPS in-season replace when it’s prepared

Dan Szymborski: I’ve a batch run going now

Honey Nut Chourios: How fearful ought to we be about Chourio’s plate self-discipline and stroll charge?

Dan Szymborski: reasonably. he does sufficient issues that he can have terrible plate self-discipline and nonetheless be good, nevertheless it limits his upside

Bobby Jenkins: 49.8% odds for the padres to make the playoffs? Hobbled and nonetheless prime of the NL West. The place’s the hole?

Dan Szymborski: So much can occur in 5 months

Dan Szymborski: Bear in mind, preseason projections are higher predictors of *subsequent* yr’s file than the precise file of the intervening season

Dan Szymborski: (which means that you’d count on 2025 preseason projections, with no information of any roster issues or something in any respect that occurred in 2025, to nonetheless be a barely higher predictor of 2026 file than precise 2025 file)

Reds Enjoyer: Taking his contract under consideration, how lengthy is Jeimer Candelario’s leash? I imply the man is simply unwatchable proper now…

Dan Szymborski: A LOT longer than warranted, however even the Reds have limits

GCM Stanton: I discover the ever present playing (adverts and in any other case) form of icky.  And I don’t even factor I’m a fuddy duddy.  I simply surprise if it’s the exploitation of a number of bundled human flaws for small non-public achieve.  I don’t know a approach out.  Simply my intestine.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not personally a fan of playing (although I’ve no difficulty with legality, out of the precept)

Danfango: Yay or nay on Abundance by Klein and Thompson?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t learn it but (I did learn Struggle although!), however I’m an abundance Georgist, if that is smart

robertobeers@gmail.com: A person, a Dan, a chat, innumerable cats, tacelbaremunnitahcanadanama

bringbackpologrounds: Is Altuve good at LF (Whole Zone), common (Statcast), or ghastly (DRS)?

Dan Szymborski:

Derek: What would Zips put a James Wooden extension at proper now? What number of extra 115 mph dingers will it take for him to get a 60+ homer projection (kidding, form of).

Dan Szymborski: saving that one for my inevitable extensions piece

Lord Thunder: What’s longer odds … Luis Robert Jr. staying wholesome sufficient to play in 120 video games this season or hitting .250?

Dan Szymborski: .250

Dan Szymborski: eyeballing it, I believe he has to hit .like .270 now to complete at .250

Dan Szymborski: And he’s performed in 22/24 video games, so he solely must play 98 of 138, which is extra liely I believe

Dan Szymborski: oof

Visitor: Dan, I need assistance. Acquired right into a bidding struggle for Wheeler, have him at 46 wage in a 300-cap 10 crew league. Contemplating dropping him for Webb at 31 wage to present me some a lot wanted flexibility, and since Webb appears to be like so good, however I’m struggling to tug the set off. Any phrases of encouragement?

Dan Szymborski: at that value diff, I choose Webb

Von Hayes: that chat app reads “Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/24/24” however it’s 2025

Dan Szymborski: BUT IS IT?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not wanting ahead to the presidential election this fall. Trump vs. Biden will likely be a trainwreck!

Dan Szymborski: Wouldn’t it’s loopy if Ohtani went 40/40 this yr?

Dan Szymborski: Man, all of the Astros starters are injured proper now

Dr J: Are lengthy tough patches initially of the season frequent for gamers beneath 30 gamers with confirmed monitor data for excellence… considering Yordan right here….

Dan Szymborski: Voros regulation! Anybody can hit something in 75 AB

Pitching Wo’s: Ought to the Orioles decide up Ian Anderson? Is there a purpose to not strive anybody on the waiver wire, beginning pitching sensible?

Dan Szymborski: The O’s are in throw crap at wall territory

Dan Szymborski: plus, the O’s don’t have any good flautists proper now, so far as I can inform

John: Fill within the clean: Roman Anthony is the ___ greatest main league hitter within the Purple Sox group proper now.

Dan Szymborski: _fab_best

Visitor: ideas on Anthony volpe

Dan Szymborski: for some purpose, broadcasters don’t actually pronounce the v with a lot emphasis, so I incessantly do a double-take as a result of it seems like somebody jusid that “Pulpy” is coming as much as the plate

D: I observed that the depth charts pages have groups which can be projected for 40+ extra WAR this season however the playoff odds pages are a lot much less optimistic. For instance, the Rangers DC has them with 40.2 extra WAR, which might be round 92 wins, however the playoff odds web page tasks them for 85.

Dan Szymborski: Depth charts are typically actually optimistic about enjoying tiem for at the moment wholesome gamers

Thoughts Blown: Bear in mind, preseason projections are higher predictors of *subsequent* yr’s file than the precise file of the intervening season(which means that you’d count on 2025 preseason projections, with no information of any roster issues or something in any respect that occurred in 2025, to nonetheless be a barely higher predictor of 2026 file than precise 2025 file)

Thoughts Blown: I really feel like I simply took the blue capsule

Dan Szymborski: Now, I’ve solely examined ZiPS

Dan Szymborski: however I count on the opposite methods woudl do that as wel

Dan Szymborski: recency bias is MASSIVE

Dan Szymborski: Individuals are at all times like “projections aren’t fast sufficient to maneuver!” however usually, they’re not wanting on the precise information

Dan Szymborski: I up to date this final yr

Dan Szymborski: Take 12 months 1 preseason projection, 12 months 1 precise file, and yr 2 precise file

Dan Szymborski: 12 months 1 preseason projection has a median absolute error of 54 factors of win share when projecting actualy yr 2 win share

Dan Szymborski: 12 months 1 precise file has an AAV of 59 factors of win share when projecting yr 2 precise file

Dan Szymborski: It is a little previous, from 2023

Dan Szymborski:

D: You and ZIPS actually nailed the Crochet extension. If you run these, do you work in any form of low cost the crew taking over further danger by selecting up arb years earlier than they should? Or is it just about straight projected worth for annually, primarily based on arb/FA?

Dan Szymborski: projected worth. the hope is that ZiPS is precisely capturing the draw back danger!

Part 34: Are the O’s already toast this yr? It kinda feels prefer it. Another yr of Adley/Gunnar gone.

Dan Szymborski: They’re not toast but, however these little orange heating traces are orange

David: Noticed the replace to Minor league numbers like WRC+; does this influence any of your minor league ZIPS stuff or is that in a roundabout way included

Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS already has minor league and park information going all the best way again

Dan Szymborski: My precise minor league park elements return to 1991, I imagine

Dan Szymborski: (it’s someplace round 1991)

Alan: Dan, I do know you may have been important of the Reds signing Emilio Pagan final yr.   to listen to what your ideas are concerning how they’re utilizing him this yr.

Dan Szymborski: I imply, to date so good this yr, however we’re speaking three weeks of a reliever, so April goes further for all

Fildear?: MLB Community’s template writes “Fildear” as an alternative of “Fielding”.  As a rhetoric prof this drives me insane.  Or is “Fildear” a factor now that I’ll simply should reside with?

Dan Szymborski: I didn’ see that!

Now that’s simply loopy discuss: Will we see an Orioles/Rockies World Sequence throughout the subsequent 10 years?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dancin’ Dan Devours Dense Doughnuts: Undecided who to ask, however are you aware why there isn’t any xwOBA out there for minor league participant pages on Fangraphs?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really know. Maybe we don’t pay for that quantity?

Tacoby Bellsbury: A month into the season, what have your cats’ greatest enhancements been? Are they sustainable?

Dan Szymborski: Nicely, Mercutio is getting a bit extra senile yearly so not him

Dan Szymborski: Justinian’s gotten out of the behavior of going beneath my desk and by accident stepping on the change of the surge protector whereas he’s down there, so I’ll name that the most important enchancment, however I don’t know if it’s sustainable

Yeah Nicely Hiura Towel: If Altuve by no means makes it to 3000 hits, will anybody ever once more?

Dan Szymborski: sure

Ben Rice: What’s Ben Rice ROS wRC+? Don’t even hearth up zips, simply throw a quantity out

Dan Szymborski: His ROS wRC+ refers to his remainder of season wRC+. ROS is simply an abbreviation.

Dan Szymborski: (attempting to trick me, hmmph)

Visitor: Would ZiPS be capable of undertaking the chance of a reliever efficiently transitioning to a starter?

Dan Szymborski: I do have that! ZiPS really tasks everybody as a full time starter and reliever

Dan Szymborski:

Fildear?: Fildear for weeks

What’s for lunch?: and do you get free merch from minor or main league groups?  In that case, what’s your favourite?

Dan Szymborski: I’d not settle for any free merchandise from an affiliated skilled crew

Dan Szymborski: although I’ll take complimentary meals within the press field!

Dan Szymborski: on that notice, it’s time for me to ehad out for one more week

Dan Szymborski: thanks for coming y’all

Dan Szymborski: (Sorry, I suppose being from Maryland makes me not southern sufficient to say y’)

Dan Szymborski: SHOW ME TO A CHAIR LUNCH DINNER