Shelby Miller is so previous… (“How previous is he?”)… he bought R.A. Dickey to floor out in his first main league inning. He’s so previous he threw greater than 200 innings for the Braves after they have been unhealthy. He’s so previous he threw greater than 200 innings in a single season, full cease.
I suppose 34 isn’t that previous, however Miller has lived and died 100 occasions throughout his profession in skilled baseball, and if the primary eight appearances of his second go-around with the Diamondbacks are any indication (10 innings, 10 strikeouts, solely 4 whole baserunners), he’s again to life once more.
There was a time, about 13 or 14 years in the past, when Miller was the sizzling pitching prospect in baseball. In 2013, his age-22 season, Miller made 31 begins for the Cardinals, received 15 of them, and posted a 3.06 ERA. If he hadn’t come of age in a bizarrely loaded rookie class, he might properly have gone house with {hardware}.
That 2013 NL rookie class deserves a short digression, as a result of behind the race between José Fernández and Yasiel Puig for the highest spot, there was Hyun Jin Ryu, Julio Teheran, Nolan Arenado, Gerrit Cole, Marcell Ozuna, Anthony Rendon, and Christian Yelich — and that’s simply within the Nationwide League. The AL rookie class, in contrast, was extremely forgettable. Wil Myers received Rookie of the 12 months, forward of Jose Iglesias, and Dan Straily bought a first-place vote. JB Shuck of all folks bought a second-place vote. The highest six rookies that yr, in response to WAR, have been within the NL.
Anyway, that’s nearly as good because it bought for the younger Miller, who bought traded for Jason Heyward on the finish of 2014, then traded once more to Arizona for a package deal that included Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson 13 months later. From there, he’s had near a decade marred by elbow accidents, ineffectiveness, and pitch tinkering as he’s struggled to beat these first two issues.
Miller’s solely begin since 2019 was a one-inning opener stint for the Dodgers in September 2023. He hasn’t thrown 60 or extra innings in a season since 2016, and he’s posted an ERA beneath 4.00 simply as soon as and an ERA beneath 6.00 simply thrice since 2015, no matter workload.
Since 2018, Miller has been granted free company or launched 10 occasions by 9 totally different organizations, however issues have been on a gradual upswing over the previous three years. Miller was excellent in his aforementioned Dodgers stint, with a 1.71 ERA in 42 innings throughout 36 appearances. However his floor numbers weren’t backed up by the peripherals, which included an 11.7% stroll price, a .165 BABIP, and a strand price of virtually 90%.
The Tigers took a glance in 2024, and Miller stayed wholesome all yr, aside from a three-week IL stint for ulnar nerve irritation beginning in mid-Could. However regardless of logging his highest innings whole since 2016 (55 2/3) and posting a 4.53 ERA for a crew that leaned closely on its bullpen heading right into a shock playoff run, Miller was waived and launched within the final week of the common season.
That is now 12 months 9 of the Shelby Miller Reconstruction Undertaking. Truthfully, for those who got here into this season nonetheless believing in Miller, that’s not optimism or ready for a post-hype breakout. For those who consider in one thing with out onerous proof for 9 years, that’s mainly a faith.
So is that this 10-inning scoreless streak a miracle, or is there a scientific clarification?
Let’s tick off the low-hanging fruit: Miller’s throwing more durable. Not by a ton; his fastball is averaging 94.4 mph as an alternative of 93.4, nevertheless it’s noticeable. This time final yr, Miller’s fastball was within the 92s, which merely doesn’t reduce it for a right-handed single-inning reliever.
Extra fascinating: Miller has modified his breaking ball from a slider to a sweeper. The previous slider sat within the excessive 80s, typically bumping into the low 90s, and whereas opponents didn’t precisely tee off on it — they posted a .285 wOBA in opposition to Miller’s slider final yr — it had fairly lackluster motion, particularly within the vertical airplane.
Into the trash that goes. I believe. Baseball Savant has Miller down for 9 sweepers and two sliders this common season, however I’m all however sure that not less than a kind of sliders was a classification error. Miller has thrown 184 breaking pitches for the reason that begin of the 2024 common season; 9 of the ten slowest pitches, and eight of the 9 highest spin charges, got here on this yr’s sweeper. The one interloper, in each circumstances, is a pitch that bought labeled as a slider on April 20 of this yr.
The sweeper, along with spinning sooner, strikes horizontally as an alternative of vertically; mainly, Miller traded about six miles an hour for 11 inches of horizontal break.
That’s compelled him to make use of his breaking ball otherwise. When Miller was throwing a tough slider with extra up-and-down motion, he might throw it to batters on both facet of the plate, and for strikes. This grander breaking ball is extra of a chase pitch.
Crucially, it’s solely a chase pitch in opposition to same-handed batters.
I’ve By no means Seen Shelby Miller’s Sweeper. I’ve Seen the Results of Shelby Miller’s Sweeper.
| 12 months | Opponent | 4-Seamer% | Splitter% | Sweeper/Slider% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RHH | 61.5 | 11.7 | 26.5 |
| 2024 | LHH | 59.5 | 26.9 | 13.3 |
| 2025 | RHH | 66.0 | 12.8 | 21.2 |
| 2025 | LHH | 59.5 | 39.2 | 1.3 |
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Right here’s the one breaking ball Miller’s thrown to a lefty this yr. It’s the one slider I don’t assume was a coding error.
I don’t know the way lefties didn’t tee off on that pitch final yr; it seems like a complete cement mixer. Extra to the purpose, this tough slider gave Miller virtually no distinction to his fastball and splitter. All 850 pitches Miller threw in 2024 have been contained inside a velocity band of simply 12.8 mph; 845 of these got here in between 84.5 mph and 96.0 mph — a spread of simply 11.5 mph. Miller threw 12 sliders that have been sooner than his slowest four-seamer of the yr, and greater than 100 that have been slower than his quickest splitter.
It’s simply not likely clear to me what Miller’s slider was doing for him final yr. Now, as an alternative of throwing that — and his splitter — for strikes, Miller is working his secondaries low and out of the zone. And now that he’s throwing pitches exterior the strike zone extra, batters are obliging him by chasing. Miller’s chase price is fifth amongst certified relievers as of this writing.
What stands out about all this to me is how fundamental all these adjustments are. Spin your breaking ball more durable, change speeds, make hitters chase, throw an off-speed pitch to opposite-handed hitters and a breaking ball to same-handed ones however don’t cross the streams. All of that is stuff I realized by studying a youngsters’s biography of Greg Maddux once I was 10, nevertheless it’s all stuff Miller both wasn’t doing — or wasn’t doing properly — in 2024.
Now, he’s putting out extra batters, permitting fewer baserunners, producing weaker contact. Even for those who anticipate some regression, he’s a high-leverage-type reliever now. It’s a miracle. Hallelujah.