Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 4/4/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe the place we’re having fun with a bit chilly snap earlier than the warmth cranks subsequent week. Let me see how briskly I can clear the questions within the queue…

Visitor: Shaw proven you any new information in only a week in MLB?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, particularly with the Japan journey in there, he deserves a pleasant, lengthy runway to get snug after primarily skipping Iowa.

Baron: After doing the bluejays record and listening to scouts enter of gamers. Who’re the blokes you might be excited to observe of their system this yr?

Idiotic Failson: Will Chandler Simpson be a viable large leaguer? I’ve kind of a prospect crush on him (and he’s not even part of my favourite workforce’s farm system)

DDG: Any matchups on opening day that you really want or suggest folks to observe?

Eric A Longenhagen: Excessive-A: Dayton at West Michigan – Chase Burns towards a number of of the Tigers finest guys

Eric A Longenhagen: Low-A: whoever Carolina performs

Eric A Longenhagen: the Carolina roster is a lot enjoyable

Eric A Longenhagen: I imply, these are fairly nutty comps.

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Francisca so much however these are a bit a lot

szakyl: I assumed you had mentioned in a earlier chat that DeLauter can be dropping in your rankings on account of his latest damage. I’m remembering incorrectly, or did one thing provide you with pause in downgrading him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I felt like the danger profile of these energy hitters ranked close to him was related. The others for Okay’s, DeLauter for damage.

FreeMingo: are you increased on Ben Rice or TJ Rumfield because the Yankees backup 1B/DH of the long run ?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, Rice’s energy provides him ceiling Rumfield doesn’t have. Would possibly as nicely attempt it to see if Rice can really hit.

Gonzo: What’s the best FV you ever gave to a prospect that by no means reached the minors? Excluding those that retired due to non-baseball accidents or non-baseball crimes

Eric A Longenhagen: At one level I feel I had a 40+ on Max Marusak, after which he went to varsity and didn’t hit.

Donny: Have you ever heard something about Johnny King? I do know he will probably be in prolonged spring coaching but it surely looks as if it’s been quiet for him, any velocity/stuff jumps that you just’ve heard?

Eric A Longenhagen: My Florida sources didn’t see him throughout minor league ST

Jay: What do you make of Jack Leiter’s begin to the season? Clearly gained’t sustain this stage of manufacturing however does it change your outlook on his future and the way you take a look at pitching prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: If he can maintain it that’s nice. You may argue he belongs towards the again of the highest 100 stacked with the opposite reduction danger arms. He’s had shaky management for fairly some time now, although. I’m undecided I’m keen to take two begins as gospel moderately than the 4 years of relative wildness.

A.Y.: Do you just like the possibilities of both of the Dodgers’ duo of Emil Morales, or Joendry Vargas to take a step ahead and enhance upon their zone-contact this yr, and actually escape? Quintero has higher bat-to-ball abilities, so I’m leaving him out. Additionally individually, it might seem like Vargas has the precise ability + capability and instruments to stay at SS regardless of being long-levered and an atypical dimension/construct for shortstop, is there no likelihood he finally ends up having the ability to stick there and be a plus defender?

Eric A Longenhagen: I noticed far more of Vargas this spring and suppose he’s nonetheless fairly lengthy, but it surely seems like he’s studying learn how to compensate for that. I’d guess his possibilities of reaching a viable place are higher. And he seems fairly good on protection. There’s a level the place one’s dimension turns into an excessive amount of to maneuver at shortstop, however there’s additionally a degree the place your dimension (and the simple plus arm energy it provides you) is an asset and I feel Vargas goes to mature in that Goldilocks Zone.

Eric A Longenhagen: Plus glove, although? that’s so much

Eric A Longenhagen: All Star

visitor: colt emerson hit a ball 115 mph and had an avg bat pace of 77 mph (99th percentile for large leaguers) in spring coaching. did these numbers make you rethink his energy ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: These are related knowledge factors, sure. My apprehension with Emerson has extra to do together with his seeming lack of ability to cowl elevated fastballs and fewer with how explosive his fingers are (they’re explosive).

Eric A Longenhagen: Additionally keep in mind I’ve received that man ranked thirtieth in baseball, it’s not like I don’t like him. And I’d ask you if his precise energy manufacturing may trigger *you* to rethink what it’s going to be. Colt Emerson – Stats – Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

Cobie: Was Grant Taylor’s ST shocking to you or was it type of anticipated and simply want well being? I used to be shocked he didn’t bounce up the ranks a bit bit.

Eric A Longenhagen: The field he has to verify is: present these items throughout a starter’s load of innings. It wasn’t potential for him to verify that field throughout ST.

Ogbert: Which non-Large 3 Pink Sox prospect is one to observe this minor league season? Perales? Paez? The Password?

D backs fan: Is Tim Tawa going to be this years ADLC? I do know it early and it’s Reno, however he’s smashing every part.

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel he is usually a priceless multi-positional function participant however most likely not an on a regular basis stalwart. It’s superior that he hasn’t struck out but this yr, although. If there have been actual modifications that assist him make extra contact, that’d be higher. After six video games, it’s early to smell round whether or not or not that’s the case.

Moises Chace: What are the probabilities he’s in a position to stick as a starter?  And if he’s a reliever, does he have elite nearer ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: Has an opportunity however these took successful this spring as a result of his conditioning and velo  have backed up. Elite nearer, like Aroldis Chapman or Edwin Diaz kind man? Nah. However a more in-depth? Yeah he may get there.

Charlie: I’ve heard so much about Brewers reliever Craig Yoho. What are you able to inform me about his outlook?

Eric A Longenhagen: Plus-plus secondary stuff, gonna be a great reliever. Want he’d have damaged camp, he’s been damage so much and should solely have so many darts in there.

Disappointment: You’re the one prospect author I’ve seen write about Nasim Nunez of the Nats. If all he ever does is play good protection, get on base (walks so much), and steals a ton, why isn’t that ok to begin on some main league workforce? I really feel like he was ignored as a result of he was a rule 5 decide, however perhaps he’s rightfully ignored as a result of his lack of energy.

Eric A Longenhagen: His skillset is that of a defense-oriented utility man. He may begin for stretches right here and there, however on a great workforce he’s a defensive substitute.

Eric A Longenhagen: Which continues to be nice!

Eric A Longenhagen: If it’s necessitated by damage, yeah. If X and Lopez are wholesome all yr then I kinda doubt it. Given the place the Marlins are in I’d suppose it’s extra doubtless they cycle guys on and off the margins of their roster all yr trying to find guys on waivers and such who can contribute, moderately than begin Acosta’s clock.

Wooden: Morning Eric! Any new information on Luiner Avila? Dude completely shoved in his first begin this yr. He had a 34% ball price within the begin.

Eric A Longenhagen: Assuming he’s the identical man I noticed final fall, has backend starter look to me. Good changeup, different stuff is both common or shade under.

Mr. Burrito: If my Dodgers do commerce one other pitcher for prospects (and I’m not saying they need to, but it surely feels potential) what sort of return ought to they search? Energy? Different pitchers? Lotto decide kids? Future draft capital? This week’s swap of Duran for Ruiz appears like a essential danger due to Rule 5 points, however different strikes gained’t be so pressured.

Eric A Longenhagen: They’ve tended to commerce for newly-drafted guys, which makes a ton of sense on condition that then they’ve as a lot time to develop these guys as potential. It additionally retains them away from 40-man clog for so long as potential. Consolidation trades for stars, and piñata trades the place you ship out talented-but-blocked guys like Michael Busch are what they need to be doing, and are doing.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a stud and it actually wouldn’t shock me if he finally ends up being the most effective man from this rookie class

BP: early ideas on this upcoming draft class

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m extra enthused about it than a few of my friends

TooDamnTall: I cherished your audit articles from the previous two years. It looks as if two main recurring points are projecting hitters talents to deal with increased stage stuff and pitchers capability to develop new pitches. Do groups have any helpful inside data on this stuff that you just’re conscious of?

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks. I feel it varies how resourceful groups are relating to discovering potential pitfalls, or their foresight about how they’ll change a participant as soon as they purchase them. After we’re speaking about lower-minors hitters who may finally battle with MLB velocity, it may be difficult as a result of they face so little MLB-quality velocity that there’s nearly no pattern screaming at you that it’ll be an issue. There are positively groups who know, earlier than they draft or commerce for a pitcher, what dev stuff they’re going to do as quickly as they get him.

Galen: What about Chase Dollander provides optimism that he will probably be considered one of solely (if not solely) Rockies pitching prospect to be succesful?

Eric A Longenhagen: Large stuff with motion that finishes in all 4 quadrants of the zone, fairly good command of that stuff, prototypical construct and athlete

A.Y.: Esteury Ruiz appears to have robust EV’s for his dimension, “easy” as turning it into pulled liners and fly-balls?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s already pulling it so much. Chase has been his greatest subject.

Visitor: In a dynasty league wouldn’t it be loopy to take Josue De Paula over Roki Sasaki in a DMB projection league?  I at all times bake in pitchers will miss 1-2 years due to arm surgical procedure.  It appears Sasaki has struggled a bit however not shocked by that… your ideas?

Eric A Longenhagen: Commerce down and take your man. Get a haul for the Roki decide.

Visitor: Kyren Paris had a reasonably good spring/begin to the yr following a swing change. Is the swing really higher, or is that this simply SSS?

Eric A Longenhagen: Haven’t seen sufficient of him to have a cogent opinion. A scout this spring requested me if I used to be shopping for in or not, which both meant his was piqued by what he noticed, or he was being sarcastic about what the web was buzzing about.

Visitor: You generally see a prospect be touted as a great, or at the least competent, defender, after which he makes it to the majors and he’s visibly terrible. How does that occur? Probably the most distinguished current instance is Jasson Dominguez.

Eric A Longenhagen: Evaluating protection is tough until you have got the instruments to do it correctly. In Jasson’s case, he missed a lot time on account of damage that one may have hoped he’d enhance on protection with reps. However I agree it’s nonetheless incumbent upon the analyst to say “however hey he sucks on the market proper now”. Right here is the ultimate paragraph of my offseason report on Dominguez:

Eric A Longenhagen: The place he wants to enhance is on protection. Maybe as a result of he’s missed prolonged time on account of damage, Domínguez has sketchy really feel for his place. His reads and routes may be wayward, and he seems uncomfortable on the catch level. He runs fairly nicely, however not nicely sufficient to play heart subject with out good instincts and really feel. The week of record publication, Yankees supervisor Aaron Boone advised reporters that Cody Bellinger and Aaron Decide will doubtless push Domínguez to left subject, which might be the most effective match for him in a vacuum anyway. A extra optimistic contact projection than a yr in the past outweighs what’s misplaced from Domínguez wanting like flub-prone defender, and he needs to be an above-average on a regular basis outfielder and younger, build-around bat.

a person has no identify: any prospects that bounce out to you within the NL west that will have floundered a bit of their first style of the massive leagues however may take a step ahead this yr? Type of like what Heliot Ramos final yr

Wooden: We received MLB daring predictions on the finish of spring. What are your MiLB daring predictions this yr?

TooDamnTall: Do you you suppose your scouting outcomes can be considerably totally different for those who had workforce knowledge on gamers, or that it’d be largely the identical?

Eric A Longenhagen: Uh, I assume it relies upon what you’d give me entry to that I don’t have already got. I think about a few of the biomechanical stuff, or different proprietary knowledge that I can’t even conceive of, may transfer the needle for me as soon as I’m taught what to do with it.

Afterthought: Something to Braxton Bragg? Was completely good in his first full-season (main caveat being 23 in low-A), 94-96 with sink, sweeper, changeup. Fairly good command, however considerations his fastball is just too hittable.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve him sitting 93.5, funky low-ish launch that rising in popularity, may most likely stand to raise extra. Sweeper extra common, changeup a bit under with potential to be common. Swingman kind.

Idiotic Failson: Are you able to give me like a fiftieth percentile final result comparability for George Lombard (ie – if issues go moderately nicely he may very well be like x participant)? Making an attempt to determine his toolkit.

Eric A Longenhagen: Trevor Story might be a bit too scorching a comp for the fiftieth% final result, however once I suppose “righty-hitting shortstop with plenty of Okay’s however large energy” he’s the man who involves thoughts.

Eric A Longenhagen: Tim Beckham feels a bit too gentle to be the comp, too risky from chase, however in that vein.

Visitor: I learn within the high 100 article a 50 FV participant ranks within the high 15 at his place.  So is a 55 fv high 10 a 60 high 5 and 70 high 2?

Eric A Longenhagen: You possibly can see who the 2 70s are, there are a handful of 60s, Gunnar is on tempo to be someplace in that 60/70 combine, and then you definitely transition into the 55s (via Muncy) after which the following 10 or so guys I’d name 50s

Eric A Longenhagen: like fifteenth, give or take, over 6 or so years is what I’m aiming for as a 50

Lord Thunder: If I keep in mind proper, you had been fairly excessive on Wehiwa Aloy just a few months in the past. Is there nonetheless an opportunity of him going within the high 10?

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel so. Energy hitting shortstop who crushed the Cape.

Jos: Hyeseong Kim 김혜성 has gotten off to a stable begin with OKC — see something new from him that encourages/discourages you about his large league potential?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a wee lad. Nice athlete, suppose he’ll be a rattling advantageous utility man

Refugee: I take a look at hype movies of Jack Bauer and really feel queasy on the concept of a youngster throwing 100 – is that this the way it’s going to be transferring ahead, or is he uncommon?

Eric A Longenhagen: You’ve received your Hunter Greenes and such however the observe report of men throwing that onerous at this age is just not the most effective. It’s means totally different doing it each fifth day for seven months than it’s doing it as soon as every week for nearer to 3

Eric A Longenhagen: He’ll go excessive, although.

Eric A Longenhagen: And he ought to, he’s good, however I’m sober in regards to the danger there.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m certain yee previous social media is just too, proper? They’ve seen sufficient of this earlier than to know the way it may go. Proper?

Stacy: What are some participant comps for Kevin Alcantara and what do you see as his ground/ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: Has 30/30 ceiling if he really hit and naturally develops really feel for carry, is likely to be Lewis Brinson

TooDamnTall: In a current chat you talked about that you just wished your colleagues to really feel what it’s wish to be flawed in entrance of a big viewers. Isn’t it the character of the sport to be flawed fairly persistently? With high prospects busting or unheralded guys breaking out, I used to be curious how typically you actually really feel such as you tousled scouting a man.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m fairly arduous on myself tbh

David Wiers: Ohmydays that Chase Burns video. I do know you mentioned reliever for him, is that for something particular, or pitchers gonna pitcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: I mentioned “reduction danger” in comparison with the opposite guys in that FV tier (like Bubba and Sproat and so on) however I feel Burns can begin. Miz too

TooDamnTall: What’s your tackle Brewer’s Luis Pena. Is the bat going to be too gentle?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, he’s good. Wanna see it for like two weeks at Carolina as I work the Brewers record earlier than placing him on the hondo proper round Jefferson Rojas or so.

Eric A Longenhagen: hmmmm, that’s fairly shut

El Zilcho: When do you count on to do up to date draft rankings? Any concept what the highest 5 seems like now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gerth and I began engaged on these this week. Would ballpark them for 2 weeks from at this time.

Eric A Longenhagen: Prime 5? Jace most likely falls out, his physique and bat pace have backed up fairly badly. Arnold continues to be up there, Aloy nonetheless up there. Ther remainder of my pre-season 50s most likely maintain. Kilen is likely to be up there now.

DJ: Any non-drafted free brokers from final yr you’ve discovered attention-grabbing? Jack Hostetler appears to be gaining consideration in Brewers circles.

Bathroom: What do you consider the Giants placing Birdsong within the bullpen?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bummed, however as they’ve proven with Roupp, it’s not essentially everlasting.

JV: What’s Canarella upside as a giant leaguer?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jackie Bradley

Salty Reds Fan: Why do you suppose you might be decrease on Sal Stewart than different retailers? Simply wish to see if I’m lacking one thing as nicely

Eric A Longenhagen: Head is flying in every single place when he swings, late and beneath a ton of fastballs.

Eric A Longenhagen: He has higher really feel for adjusting to breakers than Tyler Locklear, however my spidey sense had been tingling for a similar causes there. And Jordan Beck. And Matt Mervis

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a standard potential subject that isn’t actually expoosed till you face 94+ daily

Visitor: Hey Eric, very long time reader of yours, very a lot recognize all of the work you set in. please don’t interpret this as some kind of assault, only a curiosity. On July seventh of final yr you printed a forty five+ for Kristian Campbell. He had already been up and profitable towards AA pitching for over a month. On Sep 27 you described your self as having gone from the excessive man to the low man on him. You mentioned you wanted rather more deep evaluation vs higher stage pitching to say if he’d be a surefire common. what modified between then and him receiving a 60 with no additional video games performed for you? may he have acquired a 60 with extra evaluation earlier?

Eric A Longenhagen: The opposite publications had been extra accurately aggressive with him than I used to be. After I wrote the Sox record final yr he was breaking out, and on the time it was novel to have him as excessive as I did. After that the others raced previous me and principally mentioned “that is utterly actual” and so they had been proper.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’ve to go as a result of I’d like to shine the Giants record at this time as I bumped into sufficient of their guys at random this spring to replace a pair issues. Search for that quickly. Orioles and White Sox lists are additionally in progress. Hope everybody has a great weekend and enjoys the minor league ball.