Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 3/31/25

Ben Clemens: Hey all people, let’s chat

Some kinda Mook: Ben, I’ve been ready to ask one among y’all: A number of FanGraphs writers have been doing the “(complimentary)” bit these days someplace of their articles. Was this a coordinated factor? An editor factor? Utterly coincidental? The individuals must know!

Ben Clemens: Most likely coincidental. I’ve been doing it as a result of I’ve seen it extra on the web and assume it’s humorous

Idiotic Failson: Enjoyable reality – The Pirates are the primary group to get walked off of their first 3 video games since…the Pirates 101 years in the past.

Ben Clemens: That’s form of pleasant

diadem: What’s the outlook for Hye Seong Kim?  Utility IF? Full time 2b pushing Edman to the OF?  Flat out bust?

Ben Clemens: I’ve received utility infielder as most certainly end result with large error bars

CFH: Possibly an Eric query, however for Jurrangelo Cijntje, is hedging dependence on both arm staying wholesome at the least as a lot of a bonus because the platoon factor over his profession?

Ben Clemens: most likely an Eric query. However I’ll be aware that Eric had a cool thought in his high 100 replace immediately: use him as a righty starter and lefty reliever

MisterMet: Two catcher league: Alejandro Kirk or Hunter Goodman?  And Justin Martinez of Luke Jackson?  Thanks!

Ben Clemens: I’m on Kirk however I’ve been excessive on Kirk earlier than, so take that as you’ll

Pat: Watched most of Detroit vs LAD this weekend. Didn’t really feel like Detroit performed poorly, however, the Ohtani/Betts/Freeman/Teoscar meat grinder is so robust, then you may have Edman/Smith/Muncy, and many others..one mistake & it’s a HR.In the event that they keep wholesome, I really feel 110+ wins in doubtless.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, oh my goodness the Dodgers are good

Ben Clemens: I imply, they have been hitting nicely too. I believe that when the Dodgers are all on, they’re laborious to beat

Tim: What number of extra accidents do I wait out for Josh Jung earlier than I say “let him be another person’s drawback” and transfer on? I’ve had him since 2020 and wish to see it out but it surely’s been sooo irritating…and I’m not even him!

Ben Clemens: Man, poor Jung. He’s simply been snakebitten within the majors

Ben Clemens: I’m getting frightened that he’ll simply by no means be the identical. I hope I’m mistaken

Inform me why I’m mistaken: The royals received 86 video games final 12 months with a ten battle season from Bobby and 4 starters making each flip by way of the rotation and doing so productively. Why would I believe they might repeat that this 12 months? Some Vinnie P upside?

Ben Clemens: Yeah Vinny P being higher, Possibly Jac tears by way of the minors, India making the lineup higher, some higher bullpen efficiency maybe?

Baseball: Ought to the Yankee franchise be contracted over the torpedo bat scandal? Or would vacating their wins and banning all concerned for all times be sufficient of a punishment?

Dan: How come I by no means heard of torpedo bats earlier than this week?

Ben Clemens: As a result of “somebody is utilizing a bat that’s formed a bit of in a different way” shouldn’t be a enjoyable story however “The Yankees are dishonest” is

Phil: What % of the Yankees offensive explosion is because of their torpedo bats, what % is because of the Brewers’ pitching, and what % is simply the baseline Yankees’ ability?

Ben Clemens: I’m on like…. 70, 28, 2

Ben Clemens: cease it with the obsession with these bats, c’mon

md: What are your ideas on the Braves getting one-hit and customarily trying uninspiring this weekend?

Ben Clemens: Good factor the season didn’t finish yesterday

Henry Dodger: Did you get to look at any of deGrom’s begin? The road appeared deGrom-esque, however how did he look?

Ben Clemens: Keep tuned tomorrow!

Ben Clemens: I’m writing about his begin

Alex Anthopoulos: What’s actual and what’s simply small pattern dimension noise in regards to the Braves 0-4 begin?

Ben Clemens: Okay, actual is that they’re 0-4

Ben Clemens: these weren’t made up

Ben Clemens: small pattern dimension noise? the statlines of each participant on each side of the collection

Nervous in PA: What’s happening with Oneil Cruz? Assume he’s modified his strategy or is it too early to inform?

Ben Clemens: too early to inform

Ben Clemens: I can’t even do Dan’s “April!” bit as a result of it’s nonetheless March

TomBruno23: So…the Cardinals are…good?

Ben Clemens: My dad known as me yesterday and we talked about this for some time

Ben Clemens: I imply… no most likely? the pitching shouldn’t be good

Ben Clemens: however it’s important to be inspired by the early performances towards affordable opposing pitching

Jonah: Who’re some gamers you’ve meaningfully modified your analysis on by way of 3-4 video games?  Straightforward to overreact to the small pattern however are there any who’ve risen or fallen in your eyes from this weekend’s video games?

Ben Clemens: i imply, none

Ben Clemens: that’s not a great way to be an analyst

Ben Clemens: it’d be pitchers if anybody however, no, i want greater than this many video games

Bosoxforlife: Pat beat me to it however it will take much more than I’ve seen up to now to make me take down my perception that the Dodgers are going to win 110+. A .700 profitable share appears very achievable with so many weak groups within the sport now.

Ben Clemens: Curiously, I’m unsure I agree with you about so many weak groups given what number of completed .500 or higher final 12 months. However there are extra VERY dangerous groups (Rockies, Marlins within the NL), so possibly that’ll assist. Additionally the Dodgers are simply nice, and the plain menace to them is harm

md: Ben – due to you and the remainder of the FG workers for the work just lately, truthfully superior output to kick the season off

Ben Clemens: thanks very a lot!

Ben Clemens: We labored laborious to crank out a ton of stuff to get your baseball viewing off on the suitable foot

Oaktown Blues: If Soderstrom continues to hit, and Kurtz finds his solution to the bigs quickly, how do you deal with taking part in time? Kurtz 1B/Soderstrom DH/Rooker LF? Or possibly attempt Soderstrom in LF? (assuming his catching days are principally over)

Ben Clemens: Man, it is a nice query, and one thing that I spent a number of time fascinated about after I wrote in regards to the A’s first base scenario in energy rankings

Ben Clemens: I believe they’d most likely find yourself making an attempt Soderstrom in left and seeing if it really works. If not, they’ll transfer Rooker on the market. I don’t see a commerce within the playing cards, that simply doesn’t actually match with the valuation of first basemen throughout the league

Ben Clemens: I’m fairly excessive on Soderstrom. I don’t have a powerful view on Kurtz. However I don’t actually assume it is a huge drawback. All three of those guys figuring out can be nice, and yeah, one among them can pretend left subject I’m certain

5 Run Homer: Alan Roden and Will Wagner: legit starters or helpful bench bats? They’ve received me feeling a bit of higher in regards to the Jays’ season proper now

Ben Clemens: I’m studying so much about Roden on the fly, so I’m not assured with my reply there, although I famous that Eric re-evaluated him within the high 100 replace that got here out immediately

Ben Clemens: I’m very in on Wagner. I believe that his hitting fashion feels nicely matched along with his expertise and that he’s going to be versatile sufficient defensively to seek out the sector a ton

Unhealthy groups: The White Sox, Marlins, Rockies, and Angels have been the 4 worst groups final 12 months. Might you (1) make a Wild Card contending roster from this group, and (2) would any of the gamers be White Sox?

Ben Clemens: Ooh, enjoyable one

Ben Clemens: I believe that you just most likely might. The Marlins have some pitchers, the Angels have some hitters, the Rockies have a shortstop and possibly a number of different random contributors. I’d undoubtedly need Miguel Vargas for my model of this squad, too

Ben Clemens: so at the least one White Sock

Ben Clemens: and Robert clearly

Ben Clemens: that is likely to be it although. Possibly a depth reliever or two

Visitor: Am I loopy for saying that baseball typically hasn’t absolutely contextualized how dominant Aaron Decide is? He has 2 high of the highest 10 seasons (2022, 2024) by certified wRC+ since integration. The one different gamers with greater than 1 is Barry Bonds and Ted Williams

Clearly, he’s not going to have the counting stats of any “interior circle” HoFer (no matter that amorphous group could also be), however he’s having a considerably higher 3+ 12 months peak than Pujols, ARod, Mays, Aaron, Schmidt…

Possibly lacking 50 video games in 2023 hurts this argument, however he’s simply been so insanely good and I really feel like most individuals consider him a “routinely” phenomenal participant that the league will get on occasion, not a once-in-fifty-years caliber hitter

Ben Clemens: Sure, I agree with you on this

Ben Clemens: Aaron Decide is doing one thing that only a few hitters have achieved

Ben Clemens: It received’t really feel the identical approach, as a result of he simply isn’t going to do it for an entire profession. He began late and took some time to get cooking

Ben Clemens: however on a per-PA degree I believe persons are underrating him. There’s nice participant fatigue, and folks like me are at the least a part of it, as a result of there’s a lot sports activities protection today and writers love to speak superlatives

Ben Clemens: however Aaron Decide is superlative

Ben Clemens: extra so than a number of the issues that we write about

anotherusername: Enjoyable web site error – the mistaken Max Muncy’s picture is being displayed on the Dodgers Max Muncy.

Ben Clemens: and that muncy has no image!

Ben Clemens: I let Sean know

Logan: With rumors that the O’s are open to shifting Ryan Mountcastle (probably Walltimore’s largest sufferer throughout its brief tenure), who do you see nearly as good suits to maximise his worth? I can’t assist however consider the wonders that GABP would do for him, however the Reds’ openings are extra within the nook OF, which he has barely performed (and really poorly).

Ben Clemens: nobody’s giving up something of worth for Ryan Mountcastle

Ben Clemens: Here’s what I wrote about him there:Mountcastle initiatives for extra work regardless of being the pure brief facet of the platoon, and his observe report has useless zone written throughout it. There are many guys who can produce a 112 wRC+, Mountcastle’s profession mark. That makes him extraordinarily replaceable, however the Orioles haven’t discovered a greater possibility.

Bailey: Final lineup spot is between taking part in a full week of Jordan Beck in an outfield spot, or shifting Edman to stated outfield spot and taking part in Gunnar at SS when he received’t return till Thursday.  What to do?  Thanks!

Ben Clemens: mmmmmm…. robust one. I believe I’d go together with Gunnar. The Rockies have half their video games on the street this week, and so they’re dealing with Wheeler and Sanchez in two of them.

Ben Clemens: They solely have six video games, too

TomBruno23: I used to be considering with the Cardinals that if Pages, Gorman and Scott II hit a HR every sport and so they can use one SP and one RP to get by way of 9 innings I believe the season can be form of enjoyable.

Ben Clemens: yeah. If Pages is definitely who we thought Adley Rutschman was, the Playing cards outlook goes up meaningfully

Ben Clemens: odds of that? most likely not that top

Bosoxforlife: It’s 2:14 already and I don’t see a torpedo bat query??? I just like the idea of bringing extra mass nearer to the label. What do you assume?

Ben Clemens: Oh there are many torpedo bat questions, I’m simply principally ignoring them

Ben Clemens: It appears good to me

Ben Clemens: I doubt it’s an enormous enchancment

Ben Clemens: However I’m keen to imagine that it’s an enchancment

Ben Clemens: it’s a tradeoff, proper? adjustments the place essentially the most mass is situated. So it’s a internet good – but it surely’s gonna lead to some worse swings at components of the bat

Ben Clemens: I do purchase the concept that since hitting the ball more durable has exponential returns, you wish to add the load to the hits wehre you smash the ball (candy spot) somewhat than to ones the place you hit it nearer to the tip. However I’m guessing it is a small adjustment and never for each hitter

TugMcGrawFan1996: Colton Cowser simply broke his dominant hand on a slide into first. How is it that in a world of analytics, within the 12 months of our lord 2025, do groups not train gamers to by no means ever slide into first it doesn’t matter what?

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume that it’s a realized conduct. I believe it’s instinctual. Loads of issues in sports activities are simply achieved at a unconscious degree and wouldn’t occur for those who go tto cease and determine what to do

Lightning Spherical!: When will society as an entire let Shaboozey slip away like we did with the Macarena, I’m Too Horny, and The Scatman?

Ben Clemens: He’s working out of time for a second hit, imo

Ben Clemens: I believe it’s a GREAT walkup track although

Visitor: Royals up 3-0 over the Brewers within the first. My new thesis based mostly on Aaron Decide and this inning is that the Brewers have the worst run prevention of all time and the Torpedo Bats have been holding the Yankees again

Ben Clemens: torpedo bats torpedo Yankees, simple

mattygordo: What did Coby Mayo do to the Orioles entrance workplace to make them so mad. Is that this simply service time manipulation or is he actually not seen as one among their 13 finest batters?

Lightning Spherical!: Is Coby Mayo the brand new Michael Busch?  At this level he’ll get traded to a beginning job by the point he’s 27 at this charge

Ben Clemens: I don’t know what to consider this

Ben Clemens: I don’t get the sense that they’re doing a lot manipulation today; the Jackson Holliday demotion appears fairly affordable a y ear later

Ben Clemens: and like, they do appear good at evaluating their very own hitters

Ben Clemens: so I’m form of considering it’s a mix of the O’s being very targeted on bringing guys up in good conditions, with loads of taking part in time and a superb runway

Ben Clemens: and that they’ve received some sunk value happening with hitters who’re worse than him however out of choices

Bosoxforlife: White Sox bounce off to a 3-0 lead!

Ben Clemens: I made a number of ‘daring predictions’ this 12 months that invovled the White Sox being merely beneath common

Ben Clemens: actually hoping that I hit on these and seem to be a visionary for a milquetoast wager on regression

mattygordo: Carlson over Mayo looks like a stretch although, everyone knows who Carlson is and there’s no upside there.

Ben Clemens: no choices! and he’s not taking part in a lot

Ben Clemens: like, I don’t assume that having Coby Mayo play Carlson’s position (0 PA) is nice

Ben Clemens: though, he does have choices, whoops

Ben Clemens: if Carlson begins 5 occasions this week, I’ll take it again

Ben Clemens: however my view on that is that they actually don’t like sitting prospects on the bench within the majors

Tate: Brewers is likely to be the worst group in baseball. They cant appear to get any outs.

Ben Clemens: I’m keen to wager that they aren’t

Ben Clemens: that’s as a result of I’ve seen a few of the different groups in baseball

Okra: Blind resume – who would you somewhat for one 12 months?  
A.  SP who has put up 1.5-2.5 WAR every of the final 3 years
B  SP who averaged 1-2 WAR and added 3mph to his fastball plus a brand new pitch?

Ben Clemens: I’d take B with no different data

Ben Clemens: as a result of the WAR numbers are shut sufficient that I’d be searching for tiebreakers anyway

Ben Clemens: and three miles an hour is nice

Alec: talking of evaluating hitters, is the Spencer Torkelson revenge tour in full swing?

Spencer Torkelson: Probabilities I lastly put all of it collectively this 12 months?

Colin: The place do you assume Devers’s contract will wind up now that he’s at full-time DH, and seeming to have a doubtlessly laborious opening (both as a result of DHing or harm, and many others)?

Ben Clemens: I’m down on Devers in a long-term trajectory, I had his contract as not nice final 12 months, which stored him off the commerce worth high 50 whilst an honorable point out

Ben Clemens: now, I’ll level out that I picked him to win MVP this 12 months

Ben Clemens: however that was form of a correlation wager, I constructed a bracket that’s very professional Purple Sox and Devers busting out would do a superb job of pushing that

Ben Clemens: I believe it’ll find yourself as a ton of cash for a superb however not transcendent hitter. That’s high quality, you don’t go broke handing out offers like that, but it surely’s not the form of contract that’s franchise-altering

Tom: Michael Siani is on tempo for a 0 PA, 5-WAR season, similar to all of us anticipated

Mike Lommler: Since I’ve foolish hypotheticals in thoughts: how quickly would 1) the Phillies and a pair of) impartial analysts discover if Kyle Schwarber magically acquired the defensive talents of Pete Crow-Armstrong

Ben Clemens: oh man. I believe the Phillies would discover QUICKLY

Ben Clemens: as a result of they’d see him get to a ball and go wait what the hell

Ben Clemens: impartial analysts? is dependent upon if they’ve a dash pace leaderboard

Ben Clemens: that may be the place you see it first

Spencer Torkelson: Did you reply the Tork questions?

Ben Clemens: Oh I certain didn’t

Ben Clemens: we’re movement state chatting

Ben Clemens: my view is that it’s too early for certain

Ben Clemens: to say a lot about him in both path

Ben Clemens: however, I’m absolutely inspired that he was doing injury in spring coaching, although the facility wasn’t actually there

Ben Clemens: oh whoops, that was 2024 ST ISO

Ben Clemens: the facility WAS there this spring, even higher

Ben Clemens: the walks appeared to me to be a bit situational, I used to be watching a number of of them and didn’t come away considering ‘oh what an important eye’

Ben Clemens: however the energy appeared actual

“Uncle” Ben Rice: To your cash, who has the most effective nickname in baseball?

Ben Clemens: I believe Infantile Bambino continues to be most likely the most effective

Ben Clemens: not used on a regular basis, in fact. Oh, I like El Mago for Baez as nicely, even when it’s a bit dated

Logan: How a lot (if in any respect) does the “buying and selling away” group influence the way you view statistical and/or ability breakouts of a traded participant (e.g. Gavin Lux)? In different phrases, to make use of Lux for instance, does the truth that it was the Dodgers promoting him influence your confidence in his second half surge?

Ben Clemens: however, in a selected approach

Ben Clemens: I’m by no means that shocked to see the Dodgers buying and selling away stable main league contributors as a result of they’ve a number of superb gamers already

Service Time Impingement Syndrome: Any purpose to imagine Ben Rice’s quick begin and stable spring equate to actual enchancment?

Ben Clemens: in my 1b PPR writeup I ignored all the opposite Yankees we had projecdted at first and wrote about Rice

Ben Clemens: I believe he’s the actual deal, and i feel that his struggles final season have been the mirage

Ober: Too early for Ober fear, proper? Flu… all the time begins like this… or is the velo drop scary?

Ben Clemens: Too early to fret

Ben Clemens: give it 4 begins and then you definately’re allowed to get very scared

JB: ROS 1B  rating, Goldy, Manzardo, Torkelson, JES, Soderstrom,  N. Lowe, Paredes, Toglia, Mountcastle?

Ben Clemens: Ooh man. I’d go: Paredes, Goldy, Manzardo, Tork, then not a lot confidence after that. However to be clear, not a ton of confidence total in these

Chip: One eyebrow raised: Louis Varland’s stuff+ has surged within the pen in a tiny pattern. I’m to see how the Twins use him.

Ben Clemens: his stuff+ SHOULD be larger

Ben Clemens: dude is nasty

Ben Clemens: I nonetheless like him as a starter however I can perceive utilizing him as a high-lev reliever as an alternative

Visitor: who could have a greater 12 months. Bichette or Vlad Jr?

Ben Clemens: I imply, gimme Vlad?

Mike Lommler: You possibly can take the on-contact metrics of any below-average participant and provides these to Steven Kwan, with the purpose of manufacturing the most effective and/or most-fun hitter doable. Who do you select?

Ben Clemens: for those who depend Noel as beneath common, him, and it’d even be Guardians-themed

Derek: How huge an issue is the Orioles having a whole rotation of 4th starters (plus hopefully ultimately Grayson Rodriguez) going to be for them?

Ben Clemens: I believe so much!

Ben Clemens: I write about this usually

Ben Clemens: I really feel like they didn’t prioritize high finish beginning pitching sufficient typically

Ben Clemens: the Burnes commerce being the one time they’ve gone towards that plan, and even then, they went for the most cost effective ace out there in commerce, one-year rental from a group pressured to commerce

Hank: Let’s speak Goldy for a second. Final 12 months, as dangerous because it was, his Zswing, EV, all appeared okay. He received annihilated by cutters oddly.

Hank: Do you assume he goes again to 2023 Goldy or someplace within the center

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume he goes again to 2023. However I believe he’ll be higher than 2024. I believe that for those who werent’ allowed to take a look at outcomes and simply checked out constructing blocks, his trajectory would make much more sense

Ben Clemens: glide path down as he ages

Bosoxforlife: OMG. 1st and 2nd, no one out within the high of the 2nd and the White Sox attempt a sac bunt. Which failed however was an absurd play name. The place are their stat guys?

Ben Clemens: they’ve stat guys?

Ben Clemens: like, a number of?

Ben Clemens: they don’t give me that vibe

J: The Brewers are undoubtedly going to have to offer Jacob Misiorowski a shot ahead of later proper? With Civale out I’m unsure the way you don’t attempt him out.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I believe so

Ben Clemens: They should attempt

Ben Clemens: In addition they are a group that’s open to making an attempt

Ben Clemens: I wager we’ll see as a lot of him within the majors as he’s prepared for this 12 months

Visitor: 8-0 white Sox lead… is likely to be time to think about a bullpen position for Paddack

Ben Clemens: Paddack appeared so good in aid

Ben Clemens: I really need them to go away him there as a two-inning kind

Ben Clemens: I simply don’t fairly purchase him as a starter, not sufficient selection

Mr. Burrito: FWIW I’m scripting this with a torpedo keyboard… Right here’s my query: The Dodgers have positioned extra gamers on opening day squads than another group, one thing that’s been true for the previous few years. That is true despite the fact that the Dodgers have drafted tremendous low for a brilliant very long time. How has that occurred? And why aren’t the Dodgers given credit score within the type of much less crap-talk about them being over-spenders or, actually, within the type of comp picks that ultimately will assist the orgs which can be much less nicely run?

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume that story could be very thrilling

Ben Clemens: I’ve an excellent good friend who’s a giant baseball fan, texting me updates about how Dylan Crews appears a number of occasions a sport

Ben Clemens: severe Nats and DC sports activities fan, is aware of his stuff

Ben Clemens: and the wage cap much less facet of baseball breaks his mind. like, he simply desires to speak about aggressive imbalance and the way the Dodgers are an abomination

Ben Clemens: regardless of how clear the proof is that baseball parity is alive and nicely

Ben Clemens: for those who spend cash like that, it actually doesn’t matter the opposite stuff you do, a sizeable proportion of followers solely see the cash

Wooden: Who can be extra priceless, Adley at SS or Gunnar at C?

Ben Clemens: I’m guessing Adley at shortstop as a result of that appears simpler to regulate to than catching

SinceYouMentionedit: Do you textual content your good friend again that Dylan Crews can’t make contact? He appears terrible 🙁

Ben Clemens: no haha, these are his texts to me

Ben Clemens: we have been making up new theoretical sombreros. I known as eight in a row the Americium Sombrero

Everett: Ideas on Colt Keith?

Ben Clemens: I didn’t love this transfer, although I assumed Gleyber was a ok free agent signing to make it work

Ben Clemens: possibly McKinstry will get pressured out of the rotation and Gleyber strikes to 3rd? I dunno. However I fear that Keith’s bat shouldn’t be ok at first

How lengthy left?: Been having fun with the yap session. How for much longer will you be chatting?

Ben Clemens: 20 minutes, let’s say

Ben Clemens: gotta watch degrom’s begin and get writing quickly

Ben Clemens: Ooh a Sean Newcomb begin

Ben Clemens: and it’s going precisely how I anticipated

Ben Clemens: right here is an precise dialog I had when writing up the Purple Sox rotation

Ben Clemens: Me: Meg, I do know you stated that I ought to embrace Newcomb as a result of he’s within the rotation on opening day, however I actually don’t wish to.
Meg: Point out everybody in a gap day rotation
Me: Ugh

Ben Clemens: possibly he’ll show me mistaken

Ben Clemens: however like… no he received’t, let’s be actual

All Rise: Again to Decide being underrated … is it doable Ohtani’s a tad overrated? I’ve seen Ohtani described as the best participant on this planet, but when I had one participant to placed on my group this 12 months, I’m going with Decide — even when Ohtani makes it again to the mound.

Ben Clemens: it’s doable. The factor with Ohtani is that his expertise is so clear that it’s much less about outcomes

Ben Clemens: and extra about watching this man and questioning what’s doable

Alec: blissful carmen mlodzinski day!

Ben Clemens: could your spelling bees by no means embrace solely the letters for Mlodzinski

David: Postseason randomness and all, however for those who hypothetically had a one-game playoff between MLB all-stars and, say, the Chicago White Sox, would the all-stars have a 70-80% probability of profitable?

Visitor: You guys received me all hyped for the Royals. Will their concentrate on OBP (India/Canha) to alleviate strain from their youthful gamers repay and the way lengthy ought to it take to measure a distinction whether it is measurable?

Ben Clemens: It’ll take some time to measure. And I don’t assume it’s assured to work even when the plan is nice and the acquisitions hit. However I really like the idea

Ben Clemens: man Newcomb is getting nuked-omb

Ben Clemens: 15 pitches, 2-0 with no outs

MikeM: Yet one more Decide query.  O/U 60 HRs?

Ben Clemens: ha, it’s wild that we’re projecting him for 53

Ben Clemens: so screw it, over

Dan: Ought to groups with a former catcher taking part in a distinct place very aggressively pinch hit their catcher? I heard groups have a tendency to not PH for a catch in case the second will get invited however absolutely any former catcher can deal with a number of emergency innings.

Ben Clemens: nicely ‘very aggressively’ isn’t actually proper. how about ‘much less defensively’

Ben Clemens: however I undoubtedly like the place your head’s at

Ben Clemens: additionally I simply had a flashback to the time that the Guardians pinch hit WITH Austin Hedges within the playoffs final 12 months

Ben Clemens: after which have been instantly banished to the shadow realm for his or her impudence

SABR nerd: Will you be on the SABR conference in Texas this summer season?

Idiotic Failson: The White Sox have 8 runs and the one a type of guys I’ve on a fantasy group is Robert – who solely has a stroll. Baseball makes me so mad generally.

Ben Clemens: Fantasy baseball, what a delight

Ben Clemens: That feeling of ‘oh the group put up 10, let’s open it up and get blissful’ turning into ‘wait my man was 1-5 with a single?’ is unmatched

Kwah: I haven’t seen it but on the web, so I believe Fangraphs must be the primary to publish an edited picture of the tip of THERE WILL BE BLOOD (2007) depicting Plainview as, like, Paul Goldschmidt, utilizing a torpedo bat / bowling pin to bash a MLB pitcher’s face pasted onto Paul Dano’s physique.  However in a nonviolent, uncontroversial approach.

Ben Clemens: This seems like a immediate you’d give AI that returns nonsense

Beisbolcats: Be trustworthy, what number of contenders would nonetheless have Baez on their roster?

Ben Clemens: you already know, I really feel like many would if he have been keen to be a bench man

Ben Clemens: which he clearly appears to be, at the least kind the skin trying in

query man: i’ll say it — the purple sox are getting too cutter-happy

Ben Clemens: Kutter-happy*

Ben Clemens: Newcomb is out of the primary, 4-0 Birds

TugMcGrawFan1996: Each ERA estimator disagrees on Bowden Francis. His FIP and xFIP stated he vastly overperformed final 12 months. His xERA stated he received what he deserved. His SIERA says one thing in between. Over/below on a 3.5 ERA this 12 months?

Ben Clemens: I’ll take the over, not by a ton however I believe that’s only a good wager for anybody along with his observe report

Ben Clemens: nice interview with him up immediately, by the best way. David Laurila just lately talked to him

Bosoxforlife: It’s ridiculously early to actually know something however I don’t just like the vibes the Brewers and the Twins are sending out.

Ben Clemens: Effectively that’s undoubtedly true

Okra: Who’re you extra annoyed with for not buying and selling from their place participant extra … Boston or Baltimore?

Ben Clemens: Baltimore. The Purple Sox going out and getting Crochet makes me really feel so much higher

Izzy: If Jazz stays wholesome, does he have the facility to go 40/40?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I don’t assume it’s a base case however he has the facility for certain

Ben Clemens: I believe the factor holding him again when he’s wholesome is much less energy and extra deploying it in good spots

Ben Clemens: I additionally assume the Yankees are most likely a superb place for him provided that. Numerous dudes there who solved this riddle and became nice gamers

Visitor: Michael A Taylor 2 run shot towards paddack, now starting to doubt if Paddack can survive a bullpen transfer

Ben Clemens: Good for MAT

Ben Clemens: one of many true good guys in baseball from every thing i’ve heard about him

Doug: Mouncastle to the Padres in late April or mid Might?

Ben Clemens: I believe he isn’t washed sufficient to be a Pads backup

Ben Clemens: we’re speaking Martin Maldonado right here

Ben Clemens: Yuli Gurriel someway

Visitor: Idk appears to me like the answer to hitters shifting the candy spot nearer to the deal with of the bat is to only begin pitching these guys outdoors.

Ben Clemens: Proper, there are counter-moves and folks have been utilizing these bats for years with out breaking the sport

Mike: Any ideas on Wilyer Abreu’s taking part in time projections? He was above eighty fifth percentile in avg. EV, laborious hit%, swing pace final 12 months, and performs nice protection, however is projected for below 500 PAs. Primarily because of the impending name up of Roman Anthony & platoon splits?

Ben Clemens: yeah it’s these two issues. I believe that it’s a projection in flux, extra so than our common, each as a result of his error bars are nonetheless large and the gamers arising are too

Ben Clemens: it’s additionally actually robust to determine the way it all works with Yoshida, the Purple Sox have a number of lefties to juggle

Chip: Actually spectacular how Luke Jackson led the Oregon Geese to the NCAA Event within the early aughts and is now the Rangers nearer.

Mr. Fister: Are the Royals simply going to proceed with this Russian Roulette of getting a whole black gap of a 6-9 of their lineup yearly, simply within the identify of getting good CF protection?  At this level, I’d somewhat watch a greater lineup with a Vinnie P. patrolling CF than this gaggle of no-stick having softies

Mr. Fister: And it will be actually entertaining to look at Vinnie play CF

Ben Clemens: I really feel prefer it’s higher this 12 months than final 12 months, at the least

Ben Clemens: Like, MJ Melendez’s most frequent spot within the batting order final 12 months was fifth

Ben Clemens: don’t love that!

Ben Clemens: I really am horrified to kind this however Maikel Garcia’s most frequent spot was leadoff

Ben Clemens: Certain, these guys would possibly nonetheless be on the group. However at the least they’re the underside third of the order this 12 months as an alternative of batting first and fifth

Sam: what are your ideas on the rangers pitching workers? they appear divisive like they may very well be stable or dangerous…they lack depth for me however I suppose in the event that they’re wholesome they may very well be good

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I believe that they’re going to interrupt, principally. I believe that Patrick Corbin goes to throw a ton of innings for them

Ben Clemens: And that’s by no means what you wish to hear

Ben Clemens: Love Corbin’s story, unsure I need him on my huge league playoff contender

joeesav: gimme the over on this Balt Bost gm

Ben Clemens: yeah, I used to be so busy questioning Newcomb that I forgot to query Cade Povich

Mr. Fister: Okay, that makes me really feel barely higher, but when Kyle Isbel continues to be on this group in 26, I’m going to be massively dissatisfied.

Ben Clemens: I left Isbel out as a result of his most frequent lineup spot in 2024 was …. ninth

Ben Clemens: I believe that two issues are true: the Royals perceive that their lineup didn’t have sufficient juice to make this work sustainably

Ben Clemens: and the Royals nonetheless don’t have sufficient juice to make this work sustainably even after making some enhancements

Christian: Bubic trying stable in his return to the beginning rotation.

Ben Clemens: they’re not booing

Ben Clemens: alright, on that be aware, I’m going to do a fast lightning spherical after which name it a chat. I’ve received baseball to look at!

Visitor: Andres Giminez was hitting the ball noticeably more durable this spring and now already has 2 dwelling runs and a double. At what level does high quality of contact begin being sign somewhat than noise?

Ben Clemens: Arbitrarily, after 15 video games. Focus notably on barrel charge ,as a result of that’s the form of energy that the majority stably performs

Idiotic Failson: Of the fellows nonetheless on the FA market, Robertson is essentially the most perplexing. Each contender might use a man like him within the bullpen. Will we see him signal mid season, or is he achieved?

Ben Clemens: I believe there’s an opportunity he’s achieved of his personal volition

Ben Clemens: clearly he COULD have taken a deal if he wished to, if all he cared about was pitching

wheelhouse: completely different yankee than is getting a number of consideration after the weekend: rodon threw like 25% 4 seam fastballs on opening day. how does the extra kitchen sink strategy influence your estimation of him now and future

Ben Clemens: it doesn’t. let’s see a number of extra begins

Mike Lommler: You possibly can select one pitcher to present Roki Sasaki’s splitter/split-change/regardless of the heck that factor is. Who do you select, and why?

Ben Clemens: Mason Miller b/c that’d be enjoyable

Dan’l: What’s your favourite ’25 early-season over-reaction?

Ben Clemens: torpedo bats typically

Alec: Baez’s nickname has been up to date to La Basura

Kwah: Over/Beneath on # MLB innings tossed by aid pitcher Joey Gallo in subsequent 4 years?  Is it larger than 1 (one) IP ?

Ben Clemens: It’s 0.5, however I believe I’d take the over

J: I simply wish to throw out that the Phillies sales space simply stated that not many gamers do a greater job coming in on fly balls than Nick Castellanos, which is likely to be essentially the most delusional take I’ve ever heard

Ben Clemens: simply is dependent upon plenty of the qualitifers used there

Ben Clemens: is it like, relative to different expertise?

Ben Clemens: relative to John Kruk’s little league group?

Sam: Early ideas on Altuve in LF up to now? it’s been fascinating to say the least haha

Ben Clemens: small man huge wall make ben chortle

RetireNutting: Even with Skenes, it appears like there’s an opportunity the Pirates are this 12 months’s White Sox

Ben Clemens: I don’t see it

Ben Clemens: too many different fascinating gamers there

Todd Bonzalez: Do the Reds have the deepest rotation in baseball sans the Dodgers? Not the best high quality, however I really feel like they’ve at the least 8 guys you’d be comfy with in your rotation.

Ben Clemens: wrote about this within the PPR’s

Ben Clemens: possibly they’re not THE deepest however their depth is a really sturdy characteristic

Ben Clemens: I like the best way they’ve achieved it

Ben Clemens: plenty of these younger guys (Lodolo is someway 27 however I nonetheless consider him as younger) might pop

Ben Clemens: and so they don’t all must due to the depth

Punk in drublic: Finest NL solely pickup. Graham Pauley, nick martini, Eric wagaman, or Vinny Capra

Ben Clemens: that is gonna be pt-related

Ben Clemens: I suppose I’m kinda leaning Capra b/c he appears to do issues the Brewres like, so which may get him extra time

Mr. Fister: At the very least I heard KC made performs at Santander and Profar.  Silver linings I suppose.  Gotta crawl earlier than you’ll be able to stroll

Ben Clemens: Look including India and Canha at affordable charges is a good begin

Ben Clemens: Mark Canha shouldn’t be nice at this stage in his profession however he’s so much higher than Kyle Isbel on the plate

Ben Clemens: additionally an unimaginable comply with, his huge league foodie stuff is enjoyable

Ben Clemens: okay, on that be aware, it’s time to go

Ben Clemens: have an exquisite week, everybody, and welcome again to baseball

Longtime FG reader: Hey what’s up with Dave Cameron? I miss him. Any thought what he’s as much as?

Ben Clemens: working for the Mariners