Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/13/25

Dan Szymborski: It’s a chat!

Dan Szymborski: It’s a chat!

PCA: PCA breakout potential? This 12 months’s Elly De La Cruz?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS not less than loves him

PCA: Savant exhibits each slurve and sweeper as distinctive pitches. That is MADNESS.

Dan Szymborski: I feel there’s critical daylight between them

Datt Mamon: This season and long-term: Westburg or Vientos?

Dan Szymborski: I mildly desire Westburg, however I’ve at all times appreciated him and there could also be some gentle favoritism

Pope Formosus: Assuming that I’m right in understanding WPA as an basically a random product of sequencing, what have been the chances of the White Sox offense and bullpen each placing up the worst single season collective unit WPAs in identified MLB historical past (since 1974)? Like they need to be close to infinitesimal, proper? Even when it appears logical that unhealthy groups would expertise extra adverse WPA occasions, the bullpen wasn’t even the worst unit within the league.

Dan Szymborski: I imply, it’s not TOTALLY random. It’s simply that the randomness creaets a whole lot of noise

Dan Szymborski: If ALL you had was WPA to judge groups and gamers, you wouldn’t actually do an terrible job

Dan Szymborski: Ohtani-Choose-Soto have been prime three in 2024. Brandon Drury, Tim Anderson, Orlando Arcia have been backside three

David Stearns: What number of video games have the Mets dropped of their projections as a consequence of all of the accidents? Similar query for the Yankees.

Dan Szymborski: The Yankees dropped 2.7 wins in ZiPS after Cole harm

Dan Szymborski: (the Stanton impact is comparatively small)

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t measured the Mets particularly, however Alvarez–>Torrens is a killer

Crates: How does ZiPS undertaking context-dependent stats like R and RBI?  Is it simply efficiency in earlier years by related gamers, or does ZiPS know one thing concerning the lineup high quality?  I’m assuming it doesn’t know particular issues like “Soto bats in entrance of Alonso” and so we must always mentally bump up Alonso’s RBI projection, sure?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS know vaguely the lineup high quality, and your assumption is right

Dan Szymborski: RBI is kind of a model-able factor

Dan Szymborski: If you happen to can undertaking HR, AVG, SLG, and AB with RoB, you’ll be able to mannequin RBI fairly properly

Dan Szymborski: (that’s an r^2 of 0.914)

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS RBI *ought* to be improved this 12 months as I’m explicitly projecting AB with RoB roughly now

RAGBRAI: After the large bounce in SB in 2023, it considerably leveled off with a rise of simply over 100 final 12 months.  Do you seeing it keep at about the identical degree as final 12 months, a rise or a market correction to decrease ranges?

Dan Szymborski: I take into consideration the identical

Adam: The Rays simply formally pulled out of their stadium deal. What occurs now?

Dan Szymborski: they attempt to re-push to pay much less and broadly make veiled threats. The same old stadium shit

Wrights_Back: McNeil down for a time.    Met followers are  studying the worth of Stearn’s “versatile rosters.’

Jack’s Again?: Zips appears bullish on Jack Suwinski. Are you?

Dan Szymborski: Decently so

mmddyyyy: Participant top measurements are higher now, are weights higher too?

Dan Szymborski: In all probability, however I’m undecided

Dan Szymborski: Kruk was listed for a very long time throughout his profession at 5-10, 170, which is a few humorous crap

Effectively-Beered Englishman: If you happen to needed to take an MLB GM job tomorrow, which jobs would you most and least wish to step into?

Dan Szymborski: Reds as a result of I wouldn’t have to maneuver

Dan Szymborski: Athletics as a result of I merely wouldn’t work with John Fisher

Dan Szymborski: Not that anybody’s requested me to be their GM

dfpfromchicago: Hello – whole newbee right here.  I’m sort of enthusiastic about Jack Leiter in my blended 10 crew pts league.  Is it good to drop Robbie Ray for him? Walker Buehler?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a bit untimely except you’ve got keepers

Insert Witty Identify Right here: Does anybody know why Elly stopped his torrid SB tempo within the 2H final 12 months?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t keep in mind particularly, however there’s a typical sample through which as soon as guys are crushing the ball, groups will pull again on the stolen bases a bit

Dan Szymborski: Ohtani’s use was pretty uncommon

ZiPS enjoyer: Hey Dan, large fan of your projections. Are there any “best world” sort modifications you’ll make to ZiPS that simply arent possible proper now, whether or not that’s due to complexity or computing energy?

Dan Szymborski: I’d LOVE to have the ability to run it day-after-day and have it’s extra automated

Visitor: simply curious why ZiPS doesn’t undertaking QS or holds?

Dan Szymborski: Holds and saves are so situational that I’ve averted it as a result of there have been greater fish to fry

Dan Szymborski: although the ultimate preaseason ZiPS *will* have saves

Dan Szymborski: I’m at all times engaged on issues with ZiPS and I’m rising more and more conscious of the clock.

Dan Szymborski: I’m most likely now within the second half of the time I’ve to work on the ZiPS undertaking

Dan Szymborski: At 46, I already really feel that I’m not as computationally sharp as I used to be after I created ZiPS initially

Dan Szymborski: That’s not the close to future, however there’ll come a day after I can not usefully enhance/add issues to ZiPS

Dan Szymborski: Until I die abruptly, which has the identical impact.

Crates: How embarrassing is it for all of the mid-market non-spending wild-card-contending groups to observe the A’s prolong their younger stars

Dan Szymborski: I imply, the A’s are solely getting their payroll UP TO embarrassing

Dan Szymborski: After I misplaced 17 kilos in my first month of weight-reduction plan final 12 months, no person may have been shamed by that. I used to be capable of lose 17 kilos by having a boatload of kilos to start with

Crates: Over/beneath on how most of the present crop of younger studs the O’s ever prolong: 0.5

Dan Szymborski: Over. I feel they’ll signal one not less than

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Which ZiPS projections prompted you to do a double take this 12 months? Which one was the craziest as a result of it was a screw up, and which one was actual however most shocking?

Dan Szymborski: The Cubs offense typically

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: In accordance with ZiPS, which remaining free agent has the best projected WAR?

Dan Szymborski: Barry Bonds

Dan Szymborski: (kidding)

Dan Szymborski: Verdugo possibly?

Satan Ray Jay Johnson: Do the A’s really transfer to Vegas within the subsequent 5 years, or do they get caught in limbo (also called Sacramento)?

Dan Szymborski: I feel they’ll

mmddyyyy: Does the league maintain speaking concerning the CBA unprompted?

Dan Szymborski: In all probability

Quarantino Martinez: Are the Rays going to repair Joe Boyle? Not like a pet, like a pitcher.

Dan Szymborski: I hope so!

y: is zips going so as to add bat pace, exit velo, stuff+. looks as if low hanging fruit properly correlated to success

Dan Szymborski: I’ve had heaps of these things in ZiPS for some time

Dan Szymborski: Not bat pace, just because the info continues to be comparatively new, and it appears a whole lot of this has been captured not directly

War2d2: re: The Rays, do you assume at any level the league will attempt to “Frank McCourt” Sternberg over the stadium mess? It looks as if he’s getting sufficient adverse press that they is perhaps getting bored with him. I don’t assume they essentially disprove of the strategies, a lot as they don’t need the scrutiny.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t assume MLB thinks groups getting unhealthy press for extorting stadium offers is an enormous adverse

Dan Szymborski: The query is that if the Rays develop into embarrassing sufficient for NON payroll/stadium points

Dan Szymborski: And even then, who is aware of. They didn’t McCourt the Wilpons

Dan Szymborski: It is a good excuse to submit this oldie that I made like a decad in the past

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: An actual deep dive that may solely curiosity Baltimore folks

Dan Szymborski: Frank McCourt’s ex-sife, Jamie McCourt, is Jack Luskin’s daughter. Sure, THAT Luskin.

Visitor: Have you learnt which participant ZiPS is most sure about (smallest normal deviation)?

Dan Szymborski: not offhand

Visitor: Sorry if this will likely have been requested earlier than, however does ZiPS have any points or difficulties with projecting “Quad-A” sort gamers?

Dan Szymborski: No. Not that some received’t miss, however an identical variety of established main leaguers of comparable ages additionally suck going ahead

Dan Szymborski: Like yeah, David McCarty’s exist, however so do Carlos Baergii

Effectively-Beered Englishman: Reds GM would even be a comfortable gig since you’d be praised for merely not buying extra infielders.

Dan Szymborski: However it could be unhealthy for the Skyline crew sponsorship and I nonetheless get the occasional hate DM from somebody nonetheless offended I didn’t vote for Jonathan India in 2021

ZiP It: For the ZiPS High 100, how “shut” are #100, #101, #150 and #200 when it comes to predicted manufacturing? And only for enjoyable, who’re numbers 101, 150, and 200?

Dan Szymborski: pretty shut and it will get actually shut previous 200 or so

Dan Szymborski: Christian Moore was 101, Hao-Yu Lee was 150, Ralphy Velazquez was 200, Tirso Ornelas was 250, Blake Dunn was 300, Ben Peoples was 350, and Justin Riemer was 400

Insert Witty Identify Right here: What knowledge would Baseball Fool Savant gather?

Dan Szymborski: all non enjoying details of gamers? Like observe the cheesesteak report

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Dan, give me one thing, something, optimistic a few White Sox participant

Dan Szymborski: Andrew Benintendi has by no means revived mercantilism on a nationwide scale.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: How will the tariffs work on the Blue Jays? Every time the Blue Jays rating, it’ll depend as 1.25 runs, proper? And for the U.S. groups, every rating solely counts for 0.75 runs, proper?

Dan Szymborski: 25% of their wins are divided among the many remainder of the league after April 1st

Ceddy B Prepared: y0, homeslice, are you able to give me a concise clarification of how ZIPS tasks somebody enjoying a brand new major place. Joey Ortiz as an illustration transferring his glove to SS for 2025.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve an entire mannequin for that

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS can undertaking any participant at any place

Dan Szymborski: it makes use of actual defensive measurements at a place, implied (defensive measurements at different place), and another issues. For instance, there’s *some* correlation between pace knowledge and the way a participant adjusts in a transfer to the outfield

Dan Szymborski: Now, some quick gamers are crappy outfielders (Alex Sanchez), however there’s a relationship

Ceddy B Prepared: Elly was drained, son! Operating quick is tough.

Dan Szymborski: I agree

Visitor: athletics beating out the rockies for least beneficial. a damning indictment of the a’s.

Dan Szymborski: I feel that the Monforts haven’t run the Rockies properly in any respect, however they’re not really attempting to tank, which is an enormous deal

Satan Ray Jay Johnson: The Chuck Finley Memorial Query:  Which participant who retired not less than 2 years in the past would have one of the best present ZiPS projection?

Dan Szymborski: I THINK Greinke?

v2micca: I’m seeing a whole lot of projections for the Braves which can be actually bullish on Spencer Strider making his return in Might or June and I simply can’t purchase it.  deGrom had the identical process a 12 months earlier across the identical time interval and he didn’t return till the after the next All-Star Break.  What’s completely different with Strider?

Dan Szymborski: Projection techniques themselves shouldn’t be thought-about good predictors of enjoying time for a man like Greinke

mmddyyyy: Do newer stadiums have smaller enjoying surfaces?

Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided the correlation is that robust, and mainly 90% of stadiums at the moment are fairly new

Dan Szymborski: now, I’m assured that newer stadiums have smaller FOUL territories

David Stearns: Most probably of the large three within the nl east to overlook the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: Mets

Dan Szymborski: I feel Mets have essentially the most iffy pitching

Dan Szymborski: and there’s that Mets tendency in direction of dramatic implosions

Dan Szymborski: Like if the Mets received 117 video games, your complete crew would catch measles or one thing throughout the playoff bye

Reds2024!: How typically is the FanGraphs zips database up to date?

Dan Szymborski: In season, FG updaets it each morning

Ceddy B Prepared: As a Denver resident, the Monfarts are horrible house owners. Essentially misunderstanding sports activities science and are immune to admitting such issues. BUT… they want to win. And so they have been putting in higher decision-makers in any respect ranges. Nonetheless not satisfied the Mile Excessive Metropolis wants a MLB crew.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that’s the difficulty with the Rockies. I actually get pleasure from being in Denver, and I feel possession desires to win

Dan Szymborski: And so they actually have been including competent folks within the entrance workplace. However the employees continues to be small and there’s a whole lot of work. The Bridich period was completely horrible

RAGBRAI: With latest accidents in NY do each Baty and Acuna make the OD roster? Which if both would I need in an NL solely?

Dan Szymborski: I think they do. Undecided any is fantasy related

Adenolith: Are you a believer in utilizing SGP for drafts?

Dan Szymborski: I even have my very own model of fantasy alternative worth that I used to be capable of make whereas I used to be at ESPN

Dan Szymborski: primarily based on one of the best gamers seemingly out there on the waiver wire

BaseballBundesliga: What are a few of the quickest appearing metrics that affect your RoS projections? FB velocity and swing pace?

Dan Szymborski: adjustments in stroll price and Ok price are typically actual in a short time

Dan Szymborski: In-season is comparatively easy, because it must run day-after-day

CocoPuffs: As a lifelong A’s fan, the beginning of the season is hitting me so laborious, it’s so miserable. Add within the state of the world, it’s simply insane. It’s gonna be a protracted summer season

Eddie Gaedel: I used to be taking a look at Jett Williams’ scouting report and it received me questioning: why don’t we see extra quick gamers? It looks like baseball is the one main sport the place being quick may be a bonus. They could lack energy, positive, however wouldn’t the smaller strike zone elevate their OBP, and in addition decrease the bar for pitch choice and make contact with? Particularly with fashionable pitchers having much less command.

Dan Szymborski: It could actually, however energy is an enormous deal, and it’s an even bigger deal now.

Dan Szymborski: The quick gamers typically need to convey energy

DFlo: Dan, have you ever checked out any skilled league draft outcomes? In that case what participant would you say has essentially the most worth in accordance with ZiPS that isn’t exhibiting up in fantasy drafts.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t actually dug into that

Guerrero: If Vlad must repeat 2024 to get $500m, how properly would he need to do to get $585m (his rumored ask)? That’s like a $6m enhance in AAV

Dan Szymborski: I can’t say offhand! lol

Dan Szymborski: My mind can’t run ZiPS

mmddyyyy: Why isn’t a participant’s age primarily based on the calendar 12 months?

Dan Szymborski: It simply shifts across the edges actually

Dan Szymborski: and truthfully, one 12 months come what may isn’t tremendous big

Visitor: Your feeling of computational stagnation is perhaps influenced by unhealthy knowledge. Simply because you’ll be able to’t squeeze large enhancements isn’t as a consequence of your logic abilities, it’s most likely as a consequence of it being tougher to search out marginal good points in a largely mature mannequin. That or you’ve got early stage dementia.

Dan Szymborski: No, I imply within the sense that 20 years in the past, I may juggle like a dozen duties directly

Dan Szymborski: However I can’t do this in addition to again then. I’m extra absent-minded, extra distractable

Quarantino Martinez: Who would be the subsequent 200-win pitcher?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS stated Sale and I’m sticking with it for now

Visitor: In all probability a query for Jaffe however would Barry Bonds getting one at bat redo his HOF eligibility? I figured Bonds can be one of the best ZiPS projection for a retired participant for about 20 years.

Dan Szymborski: It will!

Dan Szymborski: Minnie Minoso and Jose Rijo each received again on Corridor ballots

Dan Szymborski: Rijo was 5 percented the second time as properly

Dan Szymborski: and Minoso received again on the poll within the mid-80s after his White Sox look in 1980

Dan Szymborski: although I wouldn’t put it previous the Corridor to say “screw that” and declare that Bonds received’t be put again on the poll

Dangerous New Bears: Fairly positive DeGrom had an a second Tommy John in 2023, with or with out the interior brace, I have no idea.  However Strider had the brace solely as a precaution, after the bone spur affecting it was addressed.  Appears fairly completely different?

Ceddy B Prepared: I really feel like by the point I flip 50 my mind can be so clean and dense that I can go bowling with it. Multitasking be damned.

Satan Ray Jay Johnson: How typically do you get acknowledged? The place is the oddest place that somebody has acknowledged you?

Dan Szymborski: Extraordinarily not often if I’m not carrying my BBWAA card on a lanyard at a recreation or a convention

Dan Szymborski: I’m not often on TV

Dan Szymborski: Oddest was this man at 5 Guys who ate his ENTIRE CHEESEBURGER standing up whereas ready for his fries to be prepared

Dan Szymborski: Talked with him for about 5 minutes

Dan Szymborski: My work is extra recognizable than my identify, and my identify is extra recognizable than my face. And the primary two are normally unseen by folks in public!

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like I put on a shirt with my identify on it.

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: (not a picture of me)

appa yip yip: have you ever ever run a zips projection for what bonds’ slash line can be if he stepped as much as the plate at the moment? can zips even regress age that prime?

Dan Szymborski: I ran it semi-seriously for just a few years after he stopped being signed, however ZiPS doesn’t have something helpful to say about him at this level

I’m the Apple: I do know you’re doing a full ZiPS run proper now trigger you haven’t opened it up as soon as for these questions. Busted Mr. Szymborski. Cease doing the job you’re paid to do and begin giving out free data to the folks.

Adenolith: Is there one other projection system you discover notably attention-grabbing or modern? One thing you noticed and thought, I want I’d give you that?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like everybody makes all of the insides viewable!

Dan Szymborski: I simply attempt to give attention to what I do and what I *can* do

RAGBRAI: Are ‘true’ closers going to be a factor of the previous? Appears increasingly groups are taking a by committee strategy

Dan Szymborski: It’s removed from utterly gone, however that’s the long run pattern

Dan Szymborski: I feel long run, the borders between starter and reliever develop into much more blurred

Dan Szymborski: A world through which groups cared about win stats was sort of a buttress of the standard roles

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t be shocked to search out in 2040, that almost all of pitchers throw two to 4 innings per appeaerance

Bubbles: On Baseball Savant, you’ll be able to export all pitches to a hitter for minor leaguers. That is helpful as a result of you’ll be able to then calculate issues like o-swong %, EV90, and so forth. Would it not be attainable for Fangraphs to point out this knowledge on minor league gamers? I plan on engaged on some Python scripts to generate this data when I’ve time.

Dan Szymborski: We  have a ton of uncooked knowledge out there, it’s only a query of the time and practicality

Fish: Say the Marlins (lol) get Tucker and Vladdy in free company. Is that sufficient for them to contend subsequent 12 months?

Dan Szymborski: No

Pinstripes: Thanks for chatting.. I see the Yanks added C/3B Jesus Rodriguez to the 40 and he performed a bit this spring. Will there be a projection for him?

Dan Szymborski: He should be on the ultimate projections

Dan Szymborski: There’s a post-spring coaching run

Dan Szymborski: taht makes use of spring coaching

Dan Szymborski: standing good points factors

Dan Szymborski: mainly, a framework that estimates the marginal worth, in standings, from the addition of a selected participant

Ceddy B Prepared: My OOTP undertaking for this 12 months is to check the “stopper” methodology with each crew to see if the ninth inning is extra necessary than ending rallies earlier than it’s an issue. I haven’t discovered a great way to measure this impact IRL.

Oaktown Blues: Was intrigued by your suggestion that the A’s commerce for Alcantara. Do you assume they might put collectively a worthy return package deal that didn’t embody Wilson or Kurtz?

Dan Szymborski: I THINK they might, however it woul dhave to be a fairly large package deal

appa yip yip: if zips may have a child with some other projection system which projection system would you like it have a child with

Dan Szymborski: I feel OOPSY so I can have an excuse to go to Finland?

Trevor: Who’s your favourite breakout pitcher this 12 months?

Dan Szymborski: Hey, I’m not spoiling one in every of my tentpoles!

appa yip yip: i respect this man’s energy. i really like strolling and consuming a sandwich. have finished it with burgers.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like strolling whereas consuming

Dan Szymborski: I don’t even like working whereas consuming

Dan Szymborski: when I’ve a chunk I’ve to wrap up, I cannot eat, drink, or go to the lavatory

Dan Szymborski: As a result of the homestretch is Recreation Time

Ceddy B Prepared: The one meals I multitask with is string cheese. Taking part in and consuming is peak goodness.

Adenolith: If you wish to run ZiPS day-after-day, may we simply attempt to crowdsource you want 50 PS4s to start out your individual mini-super laptop?

Dan Szymborski: This is able to be the folding@house undertaking that least advantages society

Quarantino Martinez: Seeing as the way it’s decidedly NOT April, is there something you’re seeing in March baseball, accidents apart, that appears significant?

Dan Szymborski: At the least let me have the WHOLE spring!

Dan Szymborski: On that word, it’s time for to hit the dusty ol’ path for this week

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for comign everybody!