Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 3/11/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, people! Welcome to a different version of my weekly chat — the third week in a row I’ve been ready to do that (please clap).

Jay Jaffe: There’s loads of confusion circulating across the latter side of that, so I hope I helped carry some readability to the matter.

Jay Jaffe: Past that, I’ve acquired a have a look at Jacob deGrom’s spring debut and the overhauled Rangers roster within the pipeline for as we speak.

Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the present

Brad: Pete Rose accepted a lifetime ban from baseball earlier than the Corridor had its stance ruling out folks on the ineligible listing, and it stands to motive he could not have accepted such a ban if he realized that circumstance. Ought to that change how we view his candidacy for the Corridor?

Jay Jaffe: No. He dedicated what had already been lengthy understood as baseball’s capital crime, and it ought to have been obvious from Shoeless Joe Jackson’s destiny that Rose’s Corridor of Fame possibilities have been irreparably broken

20longyears: Framing information has modified loads of observers’ understanding of catchers’ worth, however the information solely goes again to this point. Based mostly on anecdotes or the attention take a look at, who’s one catcher from the previous who you suppose would have a a lot increased lifetime WAR if we had framing information from their profession?

Jay Jaffe: One who actually stands out when it comes to his defensive worth and status is Jim Sundberg, a six time Gold Glove winner who completed with 40.5 profession bWAR regardless of an OPS+ of simply 90. In fact, I’d like to know the way Johnny Bench would fare through framing as nicely.

BangedUpYanks: Gerrit Cole being out definitely is a bummer for this season, however how will it have an effect on his HOF possibilities? May this be what retains him out?

Jay Jaffe: Between final yr’s nerve difficulty, his TJ, and the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, he may have misplaced at the least two prime seasons to accidents. Nonetheless, he’s far forward of his cohorts when it comes to the numbers that almost all stand out to Corridor of Fame voters. I believe he’ll be OK however he’s much less of a certainty than he was a month in the past.

RH: What’s your favourite single recreation of baseball that you just attended?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a really robust name. Jeter’s 3,000th hit recreation was very cool, as was the 1999 World Sequence clincher (Yankees sweep Braves), however proper now final yr’s clincher would possibly occupy the highest spot. The group I grew up rooting for sealing a World Sequence win over the Yankees in entrance of my eyes? Powerful to prime that

Stephen: With the damage information to Gerrit Cole (and Luis Gil and Stanton) what tier are the yankees in for AL contenders? Are they nonetheless prime 5?

Jay Jaffe: In as we speak’s forthcoming Rangers piece, I famous that the losses of Cole, Gil, and Stanton have knocked the Yankees all the way down to an 85.7-win projection, which is down 1.7 wins from once I checked in only a week in the past (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/injuries-to-stanton-gil-and-lemahieu-will-…) however nonetheless tops within the AL. By way of our Playoff Odds, we at the moment have 5 different groups inside two wins of their complete, and 11 inside 4 wins. All of which is to say I see three tiers: these 11 groups, the following three (Guardians, A’s, Angels within the 75-78 vary) and the White Sox.

Yolmer Sanchez: Who would be the most stunning participant to be moved midseason?

Jay Jaffe: wild-ass guess: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Yeah Nicely Hiura Towel: If Wheeler stays wholesome for all of 2025, is he all of a sudden a greater HOF candidate than Cole?

Jay Jaffe: It’s gonna take extra than simply staying wholesome. He’s 50 wins, 600 strikeouts, and about 8 bWAR behind Cole regardless of being 101 days older; he’s by no means received a Cy Younger and has one win in a Triple Crown class (wins, strikeouts, ERA) in comparison with 5 for Cole.

Jay Jaffe: I believe Chris Sale is a greater candidate, even perhaps higher than Cole however his well being is so iffy that youneverknow.

Tim: Can we put any religion within the scorching spring Byron Buxton is having? I might use one other OF/UT bat and he’s a part of a bunch accessible that features Noot, Profar, Adell, Conforto, NoJo, and Sanchez

Jay Jaffe: I usually don’t weigh in on fantasy questions however I can’t stop Byron Buxton. Knock your self out.

Nuxie: Marvel in case you might clear up one thing for me. Earlier than the giants and dodgers moved west there have been three groups in NY. I’ve seen experiences that there’s a territorial veto on groups transferring into somebody’s space. When did this come into being and doesn’t it appear antitrust?

Jay Jaffe: You’re forgetting that MLB has loved an antitrust exemption that goes again to 1922

Toma: One might argue that since Rose wasn’t given an opportunity to make an knowledgeable determination concerning his eligibility, he needs to be reconsidered beneath a special customary. In any case, he won’t have agreed to the ban if he knew it will completely bar him from Cooperstown.

Jay Jaffe: The settlement Rose signed was between himself and MLB. The Corridor of Fame is a separate entity that will get to resolve its personal guidelines.

Jay Jaffe: And as Manfred wrote in his 2015 denial of Rose’s reinstatement:

Beneath the Main League Structure, my solely concern must be the safety of the integrity of play on the sphere by acceptable enforcement of the Main League Guidelines. It’s not part of my authority or duty right here to make any dedication regarding Mr. Rose’s eligibility as a candidate for election to the Baseball Corridor of Fame.”

Sirras: Congratulations! You’ve been given a in the future stint as head of the HoF. What are you altering in your in the future, whether or not it’s in voting, in what’s offered within the museum, or in any other case?

Jay Jaffe: 1) one other Particular Committee on the Negro Leagues à la 2006, with a panel consisting of specialists on Black baseball, and up-or-down votes regarding possibly a pair dozen candidates

2) broaden the dimensions of the Period Committee voting panels to 32 and make any former teammate, supervisor, or govt recuse themselves from voting on that exact candidate.

3) Create a One-and-Carried out Period Committee to deal with the candidacies of gamers who’ve been frozen out of Period Committee poll placement after being uncared for by BBWAA writers.

Jay Jaffe: Moreover, I’d rescind the foundations the Corridor introduced final week.

Least Biased Dodger Fan: Hey Jay, what do you make of the Dodgers briefly stopping Ohtani’s bullpens (however not his throwing totally) to be able to “assist him put together for hitting this yr?” One thing to fret about or doubtless a nonissue which may delay his debut by a pair weeks?

Jay Jaffe: I believe it’s a non-issue or at most a minor one. Because the Dodgers at the moment have sufficient wholesome starters to fill out a rotation, there’s no motive to hurry Ohtani again to the mound, and I think about his spring coaching routine and rehab from shoulder surgical procedure has sufficient further work that including the bullpens as nicely is perhaps a bit too taxing, creating extra threat.

Sirras: What participant do you discover probably the most maddening to observe and why?

Jay Jaffe: Blake Snell’s nibbling across the fringes of the zone and his excessive stroll price can drive an individual to sturdy drink, and actually decelerate a recreation.

Jamie: Who do you anticipate to have a greater season this yr: Yordan Alvarez or Vlad Guerrero Jr. (assuming no accidents)?

Jay Jaffe: I’ll go together with Alvarez, who has by no means been something however completely phenomenal on the plate.

Jordan: The Pirates will earn a wild card spot this yr if ______________

Jay Jaffe: oh boy. Let’s see. If Joey Bart, Nick Gonzalez, Ke’Bryan Hayes stay as much as the very best hopes anybody had for them once they have been first-round picks; if Bryan Reynolds hits like an All-Star; if the massive three of Skenes, Keller, and Jones can mix for about 12 WAR… then yeah, I like their odds at profitable a Wild Card spot.

Bardo Invoice: If Chris Sale’s profession ended as we speak I’d put him at 70% to get into the Corridor of Fame by writers’ vote. Would you go increased or decrease than that?

Jay Jaffe: Decrease. If he can get to 150 wins and a couple of,500 strikeouts (wants 12 of the previous, 86 of the latter) it is perhaps simpler for voters to wrap their heads round his candidacy to the purpose that he has a coin-toss probability down the highway.

War2d2: Hello Jay! Final week I discussed I’d be going to Scottsdale for spring coaching and requested who I needs to be looking for. Simply wished to place in my scouting report that PCA seems to be like a legit all star and Matt Shaw is a bust. (I noticed a Cubs recreation and PCA homered twice and Shaw went 0-3)

Jay Jaffe: Nicely, I’m batting .500. I’ll take it!

Jamin: After Morris, Baines, and now Parker, who’s your finest guess for the following utterly unworthy induction to the HOF from the 70’s-90’s?

Jay Jaffe: Perhaps Steve Garvey if BBWAA voting shares are something to go by; his is the very best from that period of anybody but inducted and my God, the Corridor retains placing him on ballots prefer it desires him there. Barf

deGrom: How assured are you in my elbow after my second TJS

Jay Jaffe: Much less assured than the man who acquired it as much as 98 in his spring debut

David: Why is Guerrero taking a look at such a excessive payday whereas a much less heralded participant like Nico Hoerner would virtually definitely command far much less – though Hoerner has amassed extra WAR over the past three years?

Jay Jaffe: A good query. I’d say it largely comes all the way down to demonstrated ceiling and age. Vladito has hit for a 160+ wRC+ twice, with about 6 WAR in every of these years., and he’s solely about to show 26. Hoerner’s already 27 (28 on Might 13) and hasn’t had a 5-WAR season

Reds Enjoyer: Hello Jay. Was questioning in case you ever discover time to eat any YouTube baseball content material? Jamin’s point out of Jack Morris acquired me excited about the 4 half Dave Stieb documentary on YouTube that’s genuinely one in all my favourite sports activities documentaries I’ve ever seen

drplantwrench: not that Vladito is gonna get traded, however would the angels providing Caden Dana, Nolan Schanuel and Joswa Lugo transfer the needle?

Jay Jaffe: let’s see, primarily based on Eric Longenhagen’s prospect grades that’s a 55 FV, a former 45 FV who seems to be like a forty five massive leaguer (Schaneul) and a 40 FV. Even in case you’re making an attempt to get him on the deadline I believe that’s so mild that no person is even returning your name.

drplantwrench: do you suppose that the Yankee’s would take Tyler Anderson off of the Angels palms contemplating their pitching wants?

Jay Jaffe: Eh. He’s a cromulent innings eater who hasn’t come near the All-Star caliber kind he confirmed in his lone yr with the Dodgers. Why surrender expertise for him once they might signal a free agent like Lance Lynn or Spencer Turnbull? I believe the bar must be increased for them to make a commerce.

Reds Enjoyer: Had no thought you had Jon on to speak about that, thanks for the hyperlink! Would additionally extremely, extremely advocate their sequence on the Mariners. Really unbelievable storytelling that’s proper up your common FanGraphs reader’s alley

Jay Jaffe: I missed the boat on the Mariners doc, so to talk. Will test it out once I get an opportunity

1B is a Wasteland: Early rounds, roto, you want a 1B. Are you taking the metronomic Freddie Freeman and his injured leg at 35, however in the most effective lineups in historical past, or the extremely variable Matt Olson at 30, coming off a down yr and nonetheless with a powerful supporting forged? What if the league counts OBP? Or doubles?

Jay Jaffe: I’ll by no means guess in opposition to Regular Freddie.

Insert Witty Identify Right here: Since every part is a remake this point in time, in case you might redo Ken Burn’s Baseball, what would you wish to see executed?

Jay Jaffe: , i don’t even bear in mind seeing his tenth Inning follow-up, which addressed the strike, the Torre Yankees dynasty, and the PED period. I believe the following locations to transcend that might be the Asian baseball inflow, Moneyball and the analytic revolution, possibly one thing about girls in baseball that picks up after the AAGPBL

comish4lif: From the dumb as a potato query about Pete Rose: he accepted a penalty of a permanant ban from MLB – not lifetime. #2 he did 5 months in jail for revenue tax evasion. #3 he admitted to a “relationship” with a 16yo whereas Pete was in his 30s.

Why anybody helps him is means past me.

Jay Jaffe: Given how typically I’ve identified that sure, it’s a spot on the completely ineligible listing and never “a lifetime ban,” I ought to have parsed the query extra fastidiously, however you’re appropriate. As for issues #2 and #3, there’s nothing within the Corridor bylaws concerning both (HOFer Orlando Cepeda served time in jail for drug smuggling and he’s not the one one with a prison file; I think about there are different gamers who crossed the statutory rape line as nicely (ugh ugh ugh) that we don’t learn about. All distasteful however not formally disqualifying.

drplantwrench: simply learn the Rangers article.  i believe the AL West is perhaps extra up for grabs than folks understand, however are you involved about their age? Seimen, Seager, Garcia, Joc are all on the flawed facet of 30, and their SP rotation common age is about 34

Jay Jaffe: I discussed age a number of occasions within the piece, and as for these hitters, they’re countered by a bunch of 20somethings together with Carter and Langford.  The rotation is open to contributions from Rocker and Leiter as nicely — these guys can most likely nudge out anyone moreover deGrom and Eovaldi if their performances advantage.

Jay Jaffe: Okay people, brief day from me right here — I’ve acquired a belated Hanukkah present to place collectively, a brand new bike for my daughter, full with gears and handbrakes — however we’ll do that once more quickly. Thank for stopping by, and have a terrific week!