Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 2/25/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us, and welcome to a different version of my weekly chat. I’m again from my Salt Lake Metropolis ski journey with my daughter (now a starting intermediate skier!).

Jay Jaffe: The companion piece, on pitchers, is within the editorial pipeline as we chat and will go dwell quickly.

Jay Jaffe: Pitter patter, let’s get at ‘er…

Gaijin: Nicely, because you talked about it, are there any gamers you’re expecting within the NPB this yr? Clearly Murakami, any others?

Jay Jaffe: Ha, my tag line [“Baseball games are on television, and Opening Day (Japan) is three weeks away!”] referred to the truth that the primary recreation of MLB’s Tokyo Sequence between the Dodgers and Cubs is three weeks away. I don’t observe NPB carefully. Is there even a simple solution to get broadcasts right here within the US? Please enlighten if .

Tim: How critically are we taking the concept that individuals are inquisitive about making Lance Lynn a better?

Jay Jaffe: An attention-grabbing level I famous in my forthcoming roundup. Lynn does have late-inning expertise from his early days with the Cardinals, and primarily based on what he advised The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal final month, it sounds as if he’s amenable to such a transfer, however… I assume we’ll have to attend and see if any of the groups who known as about him earlier within the winter desires to circle again. My guess is that they’re second-division groups seeking to flip a better in July, which might not be probably the most interesting choice for some gamers in the event that they don’t need to uproot their households.

Visitor: Does trey Sweeney have the expertise of an each day man or is he simply the beneficiary of enjoying on a workforce with Javier Baez?

Jay Jaffe: Eric Longenhagen graded Sweeney as a forty five FV prospect, which is to say a fringe-average one, in final yr’s late-season replace, and he missed the Prime 100 this yr so it’s protected to say that grade hasn’t modified. That doesn’t imply Eric is 100% right or that Sweeney hasn’t made changes that increase his ceiling a bit. However proper now he’s the probably starter due to Baez’s poor play and his hip harm.

Phil: I used to be wanting again at place gamers who’ve made the HOF poll with fewer than 20 WAR, partly as a result of I’d like to see Jose Iglesias on it simply because he’s had such a captivating profession. It looks as if type of a random choice–one-tool, high-peak guys like Ryan Howard aren’t stunning (and Howard was well-known), however then Adam Dunn made it, perhaps extra as a stathead favourite. Juan Pierre is an attention-grabbing participant however not precisely good or well-known. Rick Ankiel made the poll, the unique two-way man but additionally form of not that good. Is there any rhyme or motive to the cutoff for the underside finish? Does it simply rely on what number of guys of that caliber are eligible in a given yr?

Jay Jaffe: The low-end guys who are inclined to make the ballots often have one main accomplishment to their names. Howard was an MVP, Pierre led the league in steals 3 times and in hits twice. Dunn by no means received a house run title however completed second 3 times, Ankiel solely finsihed second within the Rookie of the 12 months voting however clearly had a particular profession. Carlos Gonzalez (on this yr’s poll) received a batting title. And so on.

Jay Jaffe: All of which is to say that WAR is a reasonably imperfect estimator for who makes or misses the reduce

Jay Jaffe: (lunch — a poke bowl — simply arrived so bear with me for a couple of right here as I stuff my craw)

Jim: Are the Orioles actually going into the season with out getting a frontline starter?

Jay Jaffe: It positive appears to be like that manner. A lot for all the pleasure of getting a wealthy new proprietor.

Jay Jaffe: The Orioles rank twenty third in our rotation depth charts (https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?place=SP), which is fairly unimpressive for a workforce with playoff aspirations. That mentioned, perhaps there’s a Grayson Rodriguez breakout coming, or Tomoyuki Sugano — a man who doesn’t miss many bats — outperforms his projection signifcantly. Nonetheless, I feel O’s followers have a proper to be kinda pissed over the way in which issues performed out this winter.

Tacoby Bellsbury: Keep in mind when the Web was nonetheless enjoyable? What web site or neighborhood do you miss most from the great ol’ days, and the way have you ever tried to fill that void?

Jay Jaffe: I miss the Chugchanga indie rock mailing checklist, and residing within the East Village of New York Metropolis, the place there have been handful of nice little golf equipment (CBGB, Brownie’s, Mercury Lounge, and so forth) that is perhaps placing on nice exhibits on any given night time of the week.

Jay Jaffe: and that doesn’t depend bigger venues not too far-off, like Irving Plaza or Tramps. I may need gone to see 2-3 exhibits and half a dozen bands or extra. Now I’ve changed all that with, uh, parenting and attending/protecting baseball

Jay Jaffe: I do miss these days although

Visitor: Is there any solution to view BaseRuns standings for earlier years? 2024 is sweet to see however it’ll go away quickly, and I can’t appear to search out any solution to evaluate to a workforce’s outcomes from 2023 and past

Jay Jaffe: Alas, I don’t assume we archive these the way in which we do Playoff Odds. Probably not positive why, tbh.

Jed Hoyer: What’s a sensible outlook for PCA after this season if the strikeout fee drops to some extent the place he’s turning these into walks? Is a ceiling of Corbin Carroll out of attain?

Jay Jaffe: I’m not the prospect man however even simply eyballing Eric’s prospect grades I’d say a Carroll-like ceiling is out of attain. Crow doesn’t have Carroll’s energy (35 current/50 future for recreation vs. Carroll’s 55/60), hit software (30/40 vs. 55/70), or pace (60/60 vs 80/80). That’s to not say he can’t be an excellent participant, probably an All-Star in middle, however we’re speaking a few participant who ranks twentieth on a prospect checklist as a 55 total versus one who ranked 2nd as a 65. that’s a really huge hole

Bullock: Is Jose Iglesias being unsigned a results of him spending many of the offseason pondering he may get a beginning job someplace?

Jay Jaffe: I doubt it’s that a lot because it’s wanting to return again to the Mets, the place he led the league in vibes, or not less than one other prime contender as a substitute of settling for a utility job in Miami, Denver, or Sacramento.

Gaijin: Re: NPB I’ve solely discovered the video games within the US via what seems to be authorized Chinese language livestreaming websites illegally rebroadcasting them, which might be not what individuals are often searching for. Could be cool if somebody determined to select the rights up, it’s not like they’re displaying anything at 2am. Alternatively I do know the NBL (Aussie basketball) and NWHL (girls’s hockey) would stream video games on Twitch exterior of their dwelling markets, that’s one other thought that might be enjoyable for extra leagues to attempt.

Jay Jaffe: attention-grabbing, thanks for the data!

Will in Vero: If the Dodgers attempt to transfer Chris Taylor in a commerce, what’s the larger hurdle: Few suitors for Taylor’s skills, or animosity towards serving to the Dodgers?

Jay Jaffe: Except for the downturn in efficiency, it’s cash, cash, and cash, particularly how a lot of his remaining $17 million ($13 million wage, $4 million buyout) the Dodgers are keen to soak up.

Bullock: Does Crochet’s efficiency final yr train us that we must be looser about innings limits, or did he and White Sox simply get fortunate for a season?

Jay Jaffe: I want I knew, as a result of I’d make some huge cash on this business. Exhausting and quick guidelines about innings jumps — such because the so-called Verducci Effet — have fallen by the wayside now that groups have a lot granular information when it comes to pitches and mechanics. That mentioned, the White Sox are notoriously behind the occasions on the analytics entrance; they could as effectively be banging rocks collectively. We’d need to wait to see how effectively Crochet fares when it comes to efficiency and availability earlier than we declare the White Sox as something however fortunate right here.

TomBruno23: Is Nolan Arenado a future Corridor of Famer? Work nonetheless to do?

Jay Jaffe: I feel so, sure. His profession/peak/JAWS line is 56.7/44.3/50.5, the place the common HOF 3B is at 68.9/43.4/56.1, so he’s already above the height customary (thirteenth all-time, in actual fact) and 18th in JAWS. He already scores 122 on the HOF Monitor because of his 10 Gold Gloves and eight All-Star picks; 130 is a digital cinch, and I feel he’ll get fairly near that by the point he reaches 2,000 hits (he’s at 1,826).

Sizzling Whale: Why are individuals speculating that Chris Martin will be capable to shut for the Rangers?  Isn’t this the identical man who has wanted a few psychological re-sets alongside the way in which whereas working in late aid?

Phil: I feel all Fangraphs readers are savvy sufficient to know to largely ignore Spring Coaching stats, however is there any stat that is perhaps predictive or be a crimson flag or a inexperienced flag for gamers or groups?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t take a look at any of them, actually. I don’t know if the examine has been up to date however it was {that a} huge spike in spring slugging share correlated with an influence increase. I’d regulate huge velocity adjustments in both route for pitchers, although I’d keep in mind that guys do are inclined to ramp up because the spring goes on (February ain’t the time to care), and whereas working in shorter bursts would possibly air it out a bit extra.

War2d2: Hello Jay! I’m leaving for Scottsdale in every week, and seeing 5 video games (some combo of Cubs, Giants, Mariners, Guardos, Rangers). Anybody particularly I ought to hold an eye fixed out for? I’m wanting ahead to seeing Matt Shaw. It was enjoyable seeing Langford final yr, although clearly that didn’t end up how individuals hoped it will. Anybody else come to thoughts? Thanks for all you do!

Jay Jaffe: Shaw and Pete Crow-Armstrong are the highest-ranked prospects you’re prone to see enjoying frequently for these groups. Dunno if the Rangers’ Sebastian Walcott (no. 4 on our checklist) is in main league camp as he’s solely grazed Double-A, however clearly, he’s one other one if yow will discover him. Kumar Rocker must be round, and I guess it’s nonetheless value seeing Langford and Carter whilst you’re at it.

Phil: True or False: Mookie Betts finishes the 2025 season as a shortstop

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t be in any respect stunned if he strikes later within the season to accommodate one other acquisition or Edman being a greater match there.

Mr. Burrito: What’s going to occur to Andy Pages? I’d argue he’s probably higher this yr than Conforto and completely higher than Taylor, however I is perhaps excessive. The larger query is that if Pages is a part of a mini-generation of prospects (Speeding, Frasso, Freeland) who would possibly stall out due to the Dodgers’ gloriously overstuffed roster. Am I improper to worry?

Jay Jaffe: On that topic, the factor to recollect in regards to the Dodgers is that there are all form of transferring components, and whereas at this time their most popular outfield alignment is Conforto-Edman-Teoscar, Conforto is injury-prone and Pages can play middle, so a Teoscar-Pages-Betts alignment with Edman at SS isn’t out of the query

Tim: Who would you’ve bat leadoff for the softball workforce that’s the Phillies?

Jay Jaffe: If i have been making out the lineup I’d in all probability flip their normal prime two to have Trea Turner main off and Kyle Schwarber batting second.

Visitor: Is the ABS system going to depress catcher worth much more transferring ahead? They’re already underrepresented within the HOF (I feel, I haven’t performed the maths), however it SEEMED like voters have been beginning to come round to understand fielding and esp pitch framing as a part of catcher worth

Jay Jaffe: Catchers are underrepresented within the Corridor however framing *raises* their worth, and the ABS problem system that’s on the way in which isn’t going to chop into it the way in which an all-robo system would.

Jim: Given the O’s lack of strikes to switch Burnes, how do you assume issues stand within the AL East? Is it a Yankees/Pink Sox contest, or are the O’s nonetheless neck and neck with them?

Jay Jaffe: Proper now the division appears to be like fairly packed, with a 6-win unfold from prime to backside in our Playoff Odds standings, with the Yankees at 87.2 wins the Pink Sox at 84.6, the Orioles at 83.1, the Jays at 81.8 and Rays at 81.2. I just like the offseasons of the Yankees and Pink Sox rather more than what the opposite have (and largely haven’t) performed so I wouldn’t be stunned if issues shake out that manner, however i don’t assume it can take rather a lot for these standings to get shaken up.

Ben: What number of extra pitcher accidents earlier than somebody meets the Padres asking worth for Stop?

Jay Jaffe: 73

Jay Jaffe: (I child. I do not know!)

Jim: Chris Taylor additionally has an task bonus if traded. Like $2M.

Jay Jaffe: Famous, thanks.

Matt VW: I do know this isn’t your normal beat, however any ideas on what the ESPN MLB opt-out portends in regards to the future availability of the game?

Jay Jaffe: Joe Sheehan had a wonderful publication piece yesterday. You may see a few fragments right here https://bsky.app/profile/jayjaffe.bsky.social/submit/3liwqrrulvs24 however you need to subscribe to see the entire thing (effectively value it IMO).

Whereas there are different options for MLB to stream/air video games through Apple, TBS, and Amazon, none of them has the footprint that ESPN does, and I think that the 2 sides will in all probability discover a smaller deal that retains them working collectively in some capability. I do assume, as famous within the clip that I posted, that this doesn’t bode effectively for the house owners’ quest to increase the playoffs, as a result of ESPN doesn’t appear so within the added stock

TomBruno23: What are you able to inform us St. Louis Cardinals diehard followers, The BFIB, about why we should always tune in to the 2025 season?

Jay Jaffe: “Do not forget that perennial playoff contender you used to observe? It might be awhile earlier than you see them once more. Within the meantime, attempt to not throw any giant objects at your display screen each time John Mozeliak or Oli Marmol exhibits up. They’ll be be gone quickly sufficient. “

Didace: “ABS problem system that’s on the way in which isn’t going to chop into it the way in which an all-robo system would.”  As soon as the problem system is put in place, will probably be at most 5 years earlier than will probably be all-robo-all-the-time.

Jay Jaffe: Doubt it. All people HATED its implementation in Triple-A, and the game may be very connected to the human aspect.

The Previous Professor: Is Sandy Alcantra’s new ( rediscovered) 98 mph velocity this spring sufficient to maneuver the needle on his well being and sturdiness standing for this yr?

Jay Jaffe: I’m glad to see he’s throwing 98 and take that to imply that he’s feeling good now that he’s nearly 17 months faraway from surgical procedure however let’s keep in mind that excessive velo at excessive quantity is precisely why he was at all times a danger to wind up getting Tommy John surgical procedure. There can be potholes alongside the way in which with regards to his restoration, and I wouldn’t count on to see him throw 200 innings once more until he already has one other working desk ready for him.

Ham Fighter: How a lot would buying and selling for Ryan McMahon or Josh Smith transfer the needle on Milwaukee’s infield state of affairs?

Jay Jaffe: Both would in all probability be an improve over Oliver Dunn at third base, however not a game-changer. Nonetheless, the Brewers are on the level the place each marginal win is especially priceless so any form of improve can be welcome

Visitor: Why wouldn’t an ABS system have an effect on catcher framing worth an excessive amount of transferring ahead? I do know the superior stats on framing have helped present catching HOF candidates…I used to be simply pondering transferring ahead…

Jay Jaffe: the system that’s being examined this spring permits for less than two challenges per recreation, that out of I don’t know what number of dozen borderline pitches per recreation that might shift from balls to strikes or vice versa. It’s quantity that provides framing a lot worth.

David Forst: What may I get from the Mets for a few of my extra of unhurt beginning pitchers?

Jay Jaffe: In all probability Juan Soto AND Ronny Mauricio.

Jay Jaffe: Actually, even with membership management years remaining, I don’t assume guys like JP Sears or Joey Estes (each talked about through one other query) are going to deliver again main league-ready expertise or a prime prospect. I do know there’s not a ton to root for in Oakland proper now, however would the additions of a forty five FV and 40 FV prospect who’re each 2 years away from the majors be that thrilling?

Vlad Guerrero Jr: Should you have been a GM, what can be the max contract you’d be keen to provide to  Guerrero? Lots of people clowned on the Blue Jays’ $340m supply however that appears about proper to me, perhaps a bit excessive even. I assume it is determined by how effectively he does in 2025.

Jay Jaffe: Provided that Vladito went 3 years between distinctive seasons, is a big grownup son righty-swinging first baseman with awful defensive metrics, and appears like a DH within the making, I wouldn’t even go to $300 million for a long-term deal until he kind of replicates his 2024 season this yr. I feel Dan’s piece right here might be proper up your alley https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-would-a-vladito-contract-look-like/

War2d2: Not doubting something you mentioned about PCA vs. Carroll total, however the pace factor caught out for me. Savant has PCA as a 99th percentile dash pace and 98th percentile in base operating worth, vs. 96/100 for Carroll. The 60 grade on PCA’s operating appears manner, manner too low to me.

Jay Jaffe: That’s a good critique.

Dan: When individuals speak about a fringe participant being over uncovered is that as a result of by enjoying much less their fee stats are higher or is it simply that fifty inning of under common play is best than 100 innings of under common play? Or perhaps they actually simply imply the participant deserves a platoon associate.

Jay Jaffe: A number of occasions it has to do with platooning. A man could also be rather more playable — common or higher — towards opposite-hand pitching however weak towards same-side, and that may drag his efficiency down.

Joséphine: Hello, Jay – thanks for doing this! What do you assume are the subsequent steps for the Phillies? They’ve arguably one of the best rotation within the league, however their core is ageing and has come quick in huge moments (except for Harper). Painter looks as if a strong prospect, however I’m unsure about any of their place gamers.

Jay Jaffe: Actually I feel one of many largest upgrades they may do to the present core can be to deal with Castellanos as a sunk price and get a greater proper fielder. Three years in, he’s netted 1.4 WAR, and whereas he’s had some nice and well timed moments, he’s simply not excellent. I’m not wild about Kepler, however with Kyle Schwarber coming off the books after his season and Kyle Tucker hitting free company, there’s a pleasant potential improve choice down the highway.

Jay Jaffe: Okay of us, that’s all I’ve time for at this time. Thanks a lot for stopping by! We’ll (attempt to) do that once more subsequent week.