For the third consecutive offseason, Justin Turner has signed to play for a brand new crew. This time, he’s heading to the north facet of Chicago, after he and the Cubs agreed to a one-year deal price $6 million earlier this week. Turner, who turned 40 in November, will doubtless break up time at DH and 1B. The rationale so as to add Turner at this stage in his profession is straight ahead: He can nonetheless hit at an above league common clip.
Contemplating Turner is coming into his seventeenth main league season, you doubtless already know rather a lot about his recreation. His whiff and strikeout charges have stayed within the higher quartile at the same time as he has aged, he doesn’t chase a lot, and has an ideal really feel for spraying the ball to all fields. It’s the precise group of traits {that a} hitter with out a lot explosiveness must survive this a few years. Here’s a fast reminder of his efficiency during the last handful of years to place into perspective the place he’s at proper now:
Previous Man Turner’s Nonetheless Bought It
| Season | wRC+ | Ok% Percentile | Whiff% Percentile | Chase% Percentile | xwOBACON | VBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 126 | eightieth | 88th | 83rd | .383 | 36.9 |
| 2022 | 123 | 78th | 78th | sixty fifth | .367 | 34.9 |
| 2023 | 115 | 77th | 92nd | 71st | .367 | 34.4 |
| 2024 | 117 | 74th | ninetieth | 72nd | .343 | 34.2 |
There isn’t any doubt his contact high quality has dipped. That’s doubtless a operate of his backside decile bat velocity. However together with that has come improved whiff charges. This compensation represents a brand new model of how Turner has been profitable along with his present bodily attributes. It’s a profit to any crew to plug in the sort of hitter, particularly as a result of he’s productive and basically platoon impartial.
To be frank, although, I don’t assume a full on, complete evaluation of Turner’s offensive recreation is totally wanted at this level. We’ve seen what he can do and have a good suggestion what kind of hitter he’s now. As an alternative, I wish to use this time to spotlight what I believe is essentially the most spectacular a part of Turner’s recreation, the half that makes me enthusiastic to observe him within the twilight of his profession: His skill to hit sinkers.
Over the past 4 seasons, Turner has collected extra run worth towards sinkers than every other pitch. The best way he can manipulate his barrel to sq. up sinkers from both lefties or righties has at all times been an artwork kind to me. Basically, his really feel for the place his barrel is in house has carried him all through his profession. And towards sinkers, his mastery is on full show.
This would possibly really feel random, however bear with me. I’ve watched numerous Clay Holmes during the last 4 seasons. He could have the nastiest sinker in all the sport from a motion perspective. He throws it over 96 mph with essentially the most vertical drop within the recreation. It’s a nightmare for any hitter, and even worse for a righty. To match the aircraft of the pitch, a right-handed batter has to deviate from his typical swing path. Inherently, the horizontal course of a righty’s barrel works towards left subject. To vary that, the hitter must have a extra handsy, much less rotationally centered swing. That’s precisely why utilizing the Holmes-Turner matchup is an ideal solution to illustrate this explicit ability.
Turner’s placement of his fingers in his swing mixed with the place he turns his barrel over permit him to match the aircraft of a Holmes-type sinker, which has a really sharp horizontal entry into the zone and a ton of vertical drop. Logically, it is sensible that Turner could be an ideal Holmes neutralizer. And naturally, we’ve an ideal instance of Turner doing precisely that, whereas he was with the Crimson Sox in 2023:
It’s a must to concentrate on Turner’s fingers all through this swing to actually respect what he’s doing. His patented hand placement results in a totally perpendicular barrel earlier than the downswing. Then, as his swing begins, he turns the barrel over whereas his fingers are comparatively removed from his physique, virtually with a totally straight prime arm. That motion specifically units him as much as get his barrel far out in entrance of the plate to match the spot of the sinker earlier than it will get too deep on him. Here’s a slowed model to assist:
Improbable. And clearly this isn’t the one instance we’ve of Turner scorching sinkers. Right here is one other one, displaying him from behind, towards the funky Tyler Rogers from final season whereas he was with the Blue Jays:
This pitch is positioned low and inside – the precise spot the place you’d anticipate Rogers to dominate a right-handed hitter. However Turner is totally different! Getting his barrel underneath a sinker like that is like respiration to him.
I can go on without end watching these swings from Turner, however I’ll go away you with two extra:
Towards a backdoor sinker like this one from Clarke Schmidt, it’s wild that Turner is ready to get as a lot carry as he does. Within the final clip, which exhibits a swing towards Shawn Armstrong, Turner hangs in so long as he doable earlier than taking pictures his barrel to a pitch on the sting. Like I stated earlier, it’s an artwork kind.
In what might be the ultimate season of Turner’s very profitable profession, I’ll proceed to understand this ability as a lot as I can. I’m assured he’ll be a optimistic addition to the Cubs’ lineup, however at a minimal, he’ll present them with a sinker neutralizer to plug in at any second.