The largest remaining free agent of the 2024-25 offseason is off the board. In a splashy signing Wednesday night time, the Boston Crimson Sox and Alex Bregman agreed to a three-year, $120 million deal. There’s no scarcity of issues I need to say about this match of crew and participant, so let’s cease with this boring introduction already and get proper into it.
The Staff
The Crimson Sox wanted Bregman, or somebody like him, badly. Only one drawback – there was nobody else like him. When Dan Szymborski ran the numbers final week, he discovered that the Sox have been one of many groups who would obtain the best increase in playoff odds from signing Houston’s long-time third baseman. Per Dan, Bregman provides 10.8 share factors to Boston’s probabilities of reaching October.
The Crimson Sox play within the hardest division in baseball. They’ve some holes of their lineup, significantly a determined lack of juice on the backside of the order. Their bullpen tasks effectively however is full of uncertainty. A positive factor was simply what they wanted. Bregman is simply that. Since his 2016 debut, he’s been the Tenth-best hitter in baseball based on our measure of WAR. “Oh, however Ben, he’s previous, he’s pale, he’s previous his prime, nobody cares about 2019.” Yeah, effectively, during the last 4 years, Bregman has been the Eleventh-best place participant in baseball. A lot for a decline section.
Boston was working a luxurious tax payroll of round $210 million earlier than signing Bregman. After accounting for deferrals, his deal goes to convey them as much as round $240 million, proper across the first CBT threshold. However right here’s one other method of taking a look at it: For $210 million, which incorporates each free brokers and gamers underneath crew management taking part in at suppressed charges, the Crimson Sox had a couple of 44% probability of creating the playoffs. That’s round $5 million per share level. Then they gave Bregman $30 million a 12 months in current worth for 10 share factors. For those who’re maintaining rating at residence, that’s a price of $3 million per one share level. That sounds fairly good to me.
That’s an awesome spot to know your leverage. The Sox have been within the ideally suited place to maintain including. In the event that they weren’t going all out to enhance, you’d query the plan right here. Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran are at their respective peaks. A number of key contributors are on the improper facet of 30. The farm system is teeming with expertise that ought to begin hitting the majors quickly, offering a stream of reinforcements. They simply made a commerce for Garrett Crochet. All of the arrows have been pointing towards getting higher proper now, and the Bregman deal represented one of the best ways to do this. Full marks right here.
The Positional Match
The one impediment to Boston’s bringing in Bregman, other than a large stack of Benjamins? Devers, the crew’s incumbent third baseman, who may also be its finest participant and is definitely its most tenured star. Bregman has performed virtually his total profession at third base; he has spent 966 innings at shortstop, principally as an damage alternative, in addition to 32 at second and three 2/3 in left discipline, however his final defensive look away from the recent nook got here in 2019. He’s an excellent defender, and Devers is a poor one, however you don’t simply shove apart the well-compensated franchise star for no cause, so Bregman is probably going going to play second base in 2025.
I feel this transformation will work fairly effectively. Bregman has constantly graded out effectively at third, however he’s lacking the largest software that separates the perfect third base defenders from the pack: a cannon arm. Amongst third basemen, Bregman’s arm energy has ranked throughout the backside quarter of the league for just about his total profession. To not put too nice a degree on it, however take a look at Bregman, after which take a look at Matt Chapman and Manny Machado, and attempt to guess who can throw a ball more durable. You gained’t be improper.
Bregman was a adequate defender to beat that pure limitation, however his lack of arm energy gained’t be a difficulty at second base. He’s really an above-average thrower for the keystone, and we already know he has nice reflexes and instincts. There’s at all times some threat to having a participant be taught a brand new place in his early 30s, however Bregman has at all times felt a bit like a second baseman. Now he’s going to discover ways to be one on an enormous stage.
The Park
It’s not true that Bregman is solely a creation of the Crawford Packing containers in Houston. Positive, he’s an skilled at yanking fastballs down the road and into the close by bleachers, however for his profession, he has a .364 wOBA at residence and a .363 mark on the street, banging scheme and all. Then again, take into account this: Bregman is the all-time chief in OPS at Fenway Park, minimal 80 at-bats, with a 1.240 mark. Level on the Houston splits all you need, this man is designed to purpose on the Inexperienced Monster.
It’s not simply that he’s going to rack up additional residence runs, although that’ll definitely be the case. It’s every little thing else about Fenway that basically kicks issues into overdrive. Bregman is a fly ball hitter, perennially among the many league’s air-happiest ones. He’s additionally a pulled-fly ball hitter, and he’s not a very highly effective one. He by no means runs a excessive barrel price, by no means finishes above the center of the pack in onerous hit price or exit velocity, and he definitely isn’t going to threaten Ted Williams’ crimson chair anytime quickly. Which means loads of mid-distance balls within the air, and plenty of of these to left discipline.
That’s completely good in Boston, much more so than in Houston. The Monster’s outrageous proportions and his in-the-air-to-left strategy will create off-the-wall singles and doubles in droves. That massive right-center energy alley? Candidly, Bregman isn’t going to be bothered by it, as a result of he doesn’t hit residence runs even to shallower opposite-field alleys. He’s hit solely 14 opposite-field homers in his profession, and solely three within the final 5 years.
Will this be an enormous distinction? In all probability not, as a result of no stadium could make that massive of a distinction. However Boston is tailor made for Bregman’s abilities. That absolutely had an influence on his selecting to play there – and on the crew making him this provide.
The Deal
It’s a elaborate one! Three years and $120 million, with deferrals that, per ESPN’s Buster Olney, make it the equal of $90 million in non-deferred cash. Bregman additionally will get an choose out after yearly, which can theoretically let him dip again into free company at his personal discretion if he roars again to MVP competition at any level.
There have been a number of competing provides on the desk. The Astros have been reported to have supplied Bregman $156 million over six years, $26 million a 12 months. The Tigers reportedly made a proposal of six years and $171.5 million, $28.5 million per 12 months. These are princely sums, significant cash over significant years, and all through the offseason, Bregman reportedly was not thinking about signing a short-term contract. By means of that lens, then, these different provides gave the impression to be about what he was in search of, even when the AAV was lower than what he needed. That Bregman in the end opted for the Boston deal regardless of these said needs tells me that he values flexibility and in addition likes to wager on himself — and that $40 million AAV was absolutely an element.
Modeling two choose outs is meaningfully tougher than modeling one, as a result of the existence of the second adjustments the calculus on the primary. That stated, I took a crack at it utilizing a modified model of my previous Monte Carlo technique. That tells me that Bregman has a couple of one-in-three probability of exercising his year-one choose out, and a forty five% probability of leaving after the second 12 months. I’ve each odds decrease, myself, and I feel that this explicit state of affairs is a troublesome one to mannequin, so don’t take that as gospel. The purpose is that the trail of least resistance is for him to remain – on an enormous wage for a championship contender – but it surely’s not set in stone.
That’s how I’d take a look at this deal. Most certainly, Bregman shall be in Boston for 3 years and make $120 million. If he’s higher than anticipated this 12 months – a fringe MVP candidate, or maybe simply in need of that – he may be tempted to go away. If he’s a lot higher than anticipated – a top-three participant within the AL – he’ll choose out for a brand new deal someplace, maybe in Boston. That looks like an excellent evaluation of the attainable outcomes, and it explains why Bregman picked this deal over another enticing ones: He thinks these upside eventualities are price chasing.
The Participant
That brings us to the a part of this I’m most excited to jot down. Alex Bregman is engaged on a Corridor of Fame profession proper now. It’s removed from sure – a few of his peak shall be written off as a product of his realizing what pitch was coming – however at 40 WAR via age 30, he’s definitely knocking on the door of Cooperstown. The largest impediment to that’s the inevitable onset of growing old. His 2024 season was his weakest since his injury-marred 2021, and due to the crushing conformity of linear time, he’s older now than he was then – older than in any earlier season, in truth. (What an idea!)
The indicators of a slowdown are there. Bregman’s stroll price plummeted in 2024. He pulled fly balls much less often, which appears like a symptom of a slower bat. Nevertheless, by way of tracked bat velocity, final season he added greater than a mile an hour from the second half of 2023, so perhaps this isn’t fairly a difficulty but. Then once more, he additionally posted the bottom xwOBA and wOBA of any full season; solely his transient 2016 debut was worse. For a 30-year-old, these are at the least yellow flags on the chance indicator.
My counterpoint is simply this: Everybody has down years. The query comes down as to whether you suppose Bregman is a type of gamers who comes alongside just a few occasions a era and continues to produces whilst individuals level out that he doesn’t have the uncooked instruments to stick with it. You’ll be able to consider Mookie Betts, José Ramírez, and previous good friend Jose Altuve as contemporaries on this bucket, and Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia because the earlier era’s fashions. Joe Morgan, Craig Biggio, I’m positive you’ll be able to preserve throwing in names from the previous. Is Bregman one in every of these guys? I’m undecided, however nothing he’s accomplished thus far makes me suppose he gained’t be.
Some gamers’ finest talent isn’t any explicit bodily software however fairly a preternatural mixture of coordination and skill to be taught. For me, Bregman suits into that class. Even when he was an MVP candidate and functioning because the sneering coronary heart of the league’s largest villains, he was doing it with out super measurables. He’s by no means been an exit velocity standout. He doesn’t have blazing velocity. What he does have is hand-eye coordination such as you wouldn’t consider. Cool Papa Bell might flip off the lights and be in mattress earlier than the room received darkish; Bregman might most likely flip off the lights after which clear up a Rubik’s Dice behind his again, which is much less spectacular however maybe extra helpful in a baseball context.
Take a look at it this fashion: May his decrease stroll price and reduce in pull-side energy be an indication that he’s on the downswing? Positive. He additionally simply cranked 26 homers, racked up a batting line 18% higher than common, and did all of it with a balky elbow that restricted him to 145 video games, his second-lightest full season workload (silly 2020, at all times messing with our stats). Pitchers flooded the zone in opposition to Bregman in 2024, and he didn’t make them pay sufficient to vary their methods. I wouldn’t wager in opposition to him making an adjustment, although, as a result of he at all times has earlier than.
His biggest asset in making that adjustment is that hand-eye coordination, and it appears clear that he hasn’t slowed down in that side. His contact price in 2024? Highest of his profession. Baseball Savant measures “squared-up price,” the proportion of contact that’s hit virtually as onerous as it may be for a given velocity of bat and ball. It’s a brand new statistic, with solely two years of knowledge, however Bregman has been within the 99th and 96th percentiles in these two years.
Everybody at all times worries in regards to the little guys fading, as a result of typically they do. When Pedroia harm his knee at age 33, he by no means recovered. Utley had a brief profession regardless of an amazing peak, although a few of that quick profession was as a result of his not turning into an on a regular basis participant till his age-26 season. However these are simply among the potential paths. Biggio put up a ridiculous 20.8 WAR in his age 31-33 seasons, and one other 12 after that. Bregman isn’t wherever close to the participant Morgan was, so that is extra about profession trajectory than precise numbers, however half of Morgan’s WAR got here after age 30, and his finest two years got here at 31 and 32. Betts is growing old like a nice wine, although he’s solely a 12 months older than Bregman and thus it’s too quickly to attract any conclusions there.
Do you suppose Bregman is one in every of these meteoric abilities? I do. He has it, for lack of a greater method of placing it. Are you able to see him smirking in a press convention after an enormous playoff win in Boston? Clearly you’ll be able to. Are you able to see him casually taking to second base and competing for a Gold Glove? I can. Are you able to see him speaking trash to everybody whereas he does it? It goes with out saying.
Honestly, perhaps Bregman belonged at second base all alongside. That record of comparables is heavy on second basemen. Even those who aren’t, Betts and Ramírez, are form of second basemen. It’s the place that almost all elevates coordination and intuition. You don’t want blazing velocity or an enormous arm to play it effectively. You probably have dangerous instincts, all of the bodily instruments on this planet gained’t prevent. Top would possibly really be a hindrance there.
Put merely, I really like this deal. It’s about time for the Crimson Sox to start out performing like one of many massive youngsters, and this offseason has been deal after deal of them doing simply that. “Cease taking part in for subsequent 12 months” has been an annual criticism in New England; it stops right here. I need Bregman on a contender, a crew with reputable World Sequence hopes, so we will see his heel persona and aptitude for the dramatic on the largest stage. Positive, there are dangers to this signing – there at all times are – however the rewards are there too. If the Crimson Sox recapture their late-2010s kind after six years within the wilderness, we’re going to recollect Bregman because the man who turned the tide, as in “the ills of buying and selling Mookie Betts have been washed away by signing Alex Bregman.” You’ll be able to’t ask for far more out of an offseason acquisition.