Pete Alonso goes again to the Mets. It all the time felt just like the more than likely consequence, and to be sincere, it will’ve been tremendous bizarre to see him in another uniform. Alonso has by no means been the most effective participant on the Mets, however he does the good and Most worthy factor you are able to do on a baseball diamond — hit residence runs — with nice frequency. That, and an affable perspective that’s endeared him to the followers, has made him an establishment in Queens.
Sadly, there was one thing of a disagreement over what all these contributions had been price. Alonso returns to his staff of origin on a front-loaded two-year, $54 million contract that options an opt-out. If Alonso does what he’s achieved his entire profession, he can take a look at free company once more subsequent winter, having pocketed $30 million. That’s a good-looking one-year wage for any participant, however far, far wanting Alonso’s expectations.
Based on Joel Sherman of the New York Submit, the Mets provided Alonso a seven-year, $158 million contract extension in the summertime of 2023; this contract would’ve purchased out Alonso’s final arbitration yr and 6 seasons of free company. The Polar Bear turned that down, reportedly in pursuit of a contract price $200 million or extra.
That was by no means going to occur. For the reason that mooted seven-year extension, each Alonso and the Mets have swapped out negotiators; Alonso signed with Scott Boras, whereas the Mets changed Billy Eppler with David Stearns.
That’s important. Final offseason, Boras had what would possibly’ve been the primary genuinely unhealthy winter of his profession. His big-ticket shoppers — Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Matt Chapman — had been left with no seat into March, and all signed contracts with both a participant choice or an opt-out after the primary season.
These three gamers illustrate why Alonso’s contract construction works. Chapman and Snell carried out effectively, and by yr’s finish, each had signed long-term offers price effectively over $100 million. Montgomery was horrible, so unhealthy he bought known as out in public by Diamondbacks proprietor Ken Kendrick. However due to the protection internet his contract afforded him, Montgomery was capable of train a participant choice and pocket $22.5 million extra of Kendrick’s cash.
I’m certain Montgomery would slightly have had $100 million and a standard 2024 spring coaching, however it may’ve been worse. This being the week between the Grammys and the Tremendous Bowl, I instinctively seemed over my shoulder after I typed, “known as out in public by Kendrick.”
And Boras wanted to have that membership in his bag. Possibly 15 or 20 years in the past, Alonso would’ve gotten the contract he was searching for, however not now. Not even from the Mets. Cohen would possibly depend his wealth within the tens of billions of {dollars}, however you don’t amass a civilization-destroying degree of wealth by wanton largesse. And Stearns developed his popularity as one of many sharpest entrance workplace operators on the market by constructing successful groups in Milwaukee, regardless of not having two pennies to rub collectively. He is aware of higher than most {that a} seven-year contract for Alonso would have aged fairly poorly.
I stated earlier that Alonso does the good, Most worthy factor in baseball as usually as anybody. Sadly, he does little else.
Alonso is a right-handed hitting, right-handed throwing first baseman. That’s already a tough profile, although not an insurmountable one. Paul Goldschmidt received an MVP in his age-34 season. Christian Walker, practically 4 years Alonso’s senior, signed a three-year, $60 million contract with an Astros staff that’s getting more and more tightfisted. However Walker is the most effective defensive first baseman within the league. Alonso fields his place in a way that leaves little doubt as to why his nickname has “bear” in it.
Goldschmidt routinely posted batting averages round .300 with stroll charges within the mid-teens. Alonso will take a stroll, however to not the identical extent. And his different offensive abilities are trending within the unsuitable path. The large Floridian hit .271/.352/.518 with 40 residence runs in 2022. Over the 2 seasons that adopted, the headline numbers stayed the identical — a mean of 40 residence runs and 158 video games performed — however his batting line dropped to .229/.324/.480.
One genuinely cool factor in regards to the youthful Alonso was his potential hit for enormous in-game energy whereas not putting out that a lot. However even that ability is within the strategy of deserting him.
Alonso remains to be mighty robust — I’d again him to out-squat anybody else on Boras Corp’s consumer roster. However bat pace normally solely goes in a single path after age 30 for guys like this. Already, we’ve seen Alonso drop from a 140 wRC+ man to a 120 wRC+ man over the previous three seasons. Small surprise that when the Mets stated, “No, thanks,” to a long-term contract, Alonso couldn’t discover a taker anyplace else within the league.
However on a two-year deal? Or, in all chance, a particularly costly one-year deal? Hell yeah.
If we’re wanting greater than a pair years into the longer term, Alonso might be going to be a DH, not a primary baseman, with a bat that doesn’t fairly advantage the excellence. Not a poor man’s Goldschmidt, Alonso is extra like a wealthy man’s Rhys Hoskins. And I don’t know in case you heard about this, however Stearns, Cohen, and Boras bought collectively in December to place a distinct defensive nonentity in the midst of the Mets’ lineup by the 2039 season. That’s not even an actual yr.
However for now, Juan Soto can play proper discipline simply wonderful. As for the Mets’ lineup, it begins with two MVP-type gamers — Soto and Francisco Lindor — and declines quickly after that. There’s some “yeah he’s good,” adopted by “effectively, perhaps Jeff McNeil and Starling Marte aren’t utterly cooked but,” and earlier than you recognize it you’re like watching Jose Siri strike out to show the lineup over and ship Lindor to the plate with the bases empty. Once more.
So whereas I’ve bought critical misgivings about what Alonso’s bat goes to seem like two or three years from now, I really feel fairly assured about what he’s going to do in 2025: In all probability hit about 40 residence runs, if solely as a result of that’s what he does yearly. And if he’s hitting behind Lindor and Soto, these 40 dingers are going to translate to a ton of runs batted in.
And with this contract construction, if Alonso declines precipitously in his mid-30s, who cares? The Mets may have both moved on or signed him to a deal that’s extra commensurate with these expectations. And if Alonso does preserve strolling this tightrope, he can signal one profitable short-term deal after one other so long as he continues to hit.
Most vital, Alonso stays the place he belongs: in the midst of the Mets’ lineup. Over his six-year profession, he’s held down the fort by possession and entrance workplace turmoil, a near-total roster turnover, and at the least as many embarrassing false begins as playoff appearances. It might’ve been a disgrace to see him go off to a well-funded semi-retirement elsewhere simply as issues are about to get good. It’ll be at the least another yr earlier than Alonso pulls on a distinct uniform, which is nice, as a result of I by no means fairly bought round to imagining it.