Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat –2/4/25

Jay Jaffe: Hey people! Welcome to my Tuesday chat. Please hold tight for a second as I’m within the midst of conferring with editors about at this time’s piece

Jay Jaffe: Okay, I’m again however please bear with me if there are additional interruptions. My lengthy-awaited-threatened opus — “How I Discovered to Cease Worrying and Get pleasure from Batting Common Once more” — is within the editorial pipeline. No, that’s not a joke, it’s a chunk that’s 5 years within the making

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, I’ll hyperlink to at this time’s piece when it’s up. Within the meantime, on with the present…

WinTwins0410: Jay, thanks for all of your Corridor of Fame protection.  I do know that by way of your analysis and writing — and reaching conclusions based mostly on the place the information and narratives take you — you may have been extra enthused about some Eras Committees picks prior to now few years than about others.  My query: Recognizing that the one different option to get guys in after their BBWAA voting eligibility expires is by way of the Period Committees — flawed although they might be — is it higher to get a number of the guys you’ve *actually* wished in as a trade-off for having to just accept the induction of a number of the ones you suppose fall quick?  Put one other approach, over the previous decade-plus, do you’re feeling prefer it has been value it to you to see Dick Allen, Marvin Miller, Ted Simmons, Minnie Minoso, Ron Santo and Alan Trammell inducted if it has additionally meant the enshrinements of Dave Parker, Jim Kaat, Harold Baines and Jack Morris? (be aware that I didn’t point out Bud Selig lol)

Jay Jaffe: Thanks for the sort phrases. The outcomes you cite are a combined blessing, certainly, however the particularities of the primary group lead me to want a extra inclusive Corridor of Fame to a much less inclusive one. That stated, I’d be happier with the idea of a Trammel/Morris trade-off if it additionally included Lou Whitaker

Jay Jaffe: That stated, I’m nonetheless mad — and can all the time be mad — that all the guys you point out save for Simmons and Trammell needed to die earlier than lastly getting elected.

Visitor: What occurred to Nashville being the main website for enlargement?

Jay Jaffe: It’s nonetheless considered one of them. I feel Nashville, Charlotte, Salt Lake Metropolis and Portland are nonetheless the main candidates and we’ll in all probability get one from the primary pair and one from the second, for some geographical stability. We had been speculated to get some motion on enlargement after the A’s and Rays’  ballpark conditions had been sewn up however… effectively, we’ve seen some setbacks to say the least

Visitor: I’m of the opinion the A’s won’t ever construct a stadium in Vegas.  What say you?

Jay Jaffe: If I had been inclined to guess, I’d guess towards it. However boy is it gonna get even uglier than it already is that if that occurs

Visitor: Is Jazz Chisolm and his rocket arm extra worthwhile at third base than second?

Jay Jaffe: From watching him with the Yankees, I’d be inclined to say no, as a result of we noticed him make some basic errors borne of inexperience, esp. in October. However the Statcast numbers specifically say he was effectively above common there, much less due to his arm than his vary

Jay Jaffe: his bat might be a greater match for the positional expectations at second, although. Both approach, going right into a season with Oswaldo Cabrera penciled in at third is lower than ultimate

Jay Jaffe: OK hold tight, one other editorial confab…

BC26: In case you needed to pinpoint one factor you’re most excited for this season, what wouldn’t it be?

Jay Jaffe: its arrival. I feel I might use the immersion of the season and its each day rhythms to supply some aid from the unfolding horrors round us.

econguy: May the Baltimore and LA match up on a Jackson Holliday commerce ? Speeding+many younger pitchers who’re blocked and the Dodgers get their long run SS.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose Speeding or anybody else the Dodgers can supply is high-ceiling sufficient to offset the chance of buying and selling Holliday

Jason N: Ought to the Padres supply Merrill the Tatis contract?  Ought to Merrill take it?

Jay Jaffe: If he does get such a proposal, he ought to take it, however given the Padres’ possession chaos proper now, there’s no approach in hell that’s occurring.

Query marks: By way of 2025 hitting efficiency (excluding protection), who’s the low man on the totem pole: Maikel Garcia (who will get SBs), Anthony Volpe  (additionally SBs), Jacob Wilson (BA), Byron Buxton (terrific—if he’s wholesome), Jackson Holliday (when will his time hasn’t come?). Thanks.

Jay Jaffe: Garcia. he’s too younger to surrender on, however I actually haven’t seen sufficient out of him to be impressed

Nate: Who do you suppose the braves fifth starters going to be

Jay Jaffe: Steve Avery

Jay Jaffe: RosterResource and our Depth Charts projections recommend Ian Anderson because the 5, with AJ Smith-Shawver and Bryce Elder as options. That appears about proper. Anderson actually did appear like an excellent pitcher for awhile and it wouldn’t suprise me if, bodily points behind him, he turns into a particular participant once more

Sean Lahman: Will the Reds be higher merely for having Terry Francona on the helm?  How a lot distinction can supervisor make by way of wins?  Bruce Bochy took the Rangers from 68 wins to 90 in his first season (and a World Collection win).  However final yr, the Cubs dumped David Ross to rent Craig Counsell and completed with an equivalent win-loss file.

Jay Jaffe: I feel he’ll assist, however I don’t suppose it will likely be a dramatic enchancment as a result of I simply don’t see a dramatic enchancment within the roster. There appear to be a variety of position gamers who may pan out however apart from Elly, who’s tough across the edges however entertaining as hell, who’s going to drive that offense?

Tony: When eager about the Corridor of Fame circumstances of pitchers, do you suppose evaluating somebody like Bret Saberhagen to extra fashionable pitchers, like Felix or deGrom is smart for the reason that entire motive pitchers are more likely to be thought-about in a different way shifting ahead is as a result of efficiency expectations at the moment are totally different?

Jay Jaffe: Roughly. I’m nonetheless grappling with the best way to consider this Corridor of Bypassed Pitchers however I feel that as we transfer ahead, we possibly ought to focus extra on them in profession innings tiers. Who’re one of the best pitchers with 2500-3000 innings, or 2000-2500, which might be lacking from the Corridor? The issue nonetheless turns into the issue of even getting these guys onto Period Committee ballots, for the reason that Historic Overview Committee nearly by no means places a one-and-done candidate on there.

Jay Jaffe: I’ll say that for as spectacular as deGrom is, if he doesn’t get to 2000 inning (he’s acquired 1,367) he’s acquired even much less of a shot than Felix.

Idiotic Failson: It’s loopy to suppose given his hype arising, however does Moncada find yourself with a minor league cope with an invitation to ST at this level?

Jay Jaffe: I’m certain there’s a minor league deal on the market for him — nearly each staff can take a flyer on a man who’s proven that sort of upside even when it was some time in the past. The query is whether or not there’s a significant league deal for him. I believe there’s, however with a low base wage plus incentives. The Yankees wouldn’t be a lot of a shock however after asking for his medicals early within the offseason, they apparently haven’t re-engaged. https://nypost.com/2025/01/31/sports activities/breaking-down-the-dwindling-infie…

Free Agent Fan: Dan Szymborski simply wrote an article that included the place Bregman might have the best affect to playoff odds. What staff signing Bregman would have the best affect to your life (minimal as it could be)?

Jay Jaffe: He’d in all probability wind up in my line of sight most frequently if he indicators with the Padres or Diamondbacks since a lot of my viewing defaults to the Dodgers given the the 3-hour time distinction, however I’d in all probability see him in particular person most frequently if he indicators with the Pink Sox. All of these groups are among the many ones whose Playoff Odds may gain advantage essentially the most by way of Dan’s piece (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/bregging-the-question/)

bartleby: i’m clutching my pearls over the horror of the one non Ichiro HOF voter. Ought to we be looking him/her down by way of any means mandatory and tar and feather him/her?  The horror, the horror!

Jay Jaffe: At this juncture, we have to let it go — not simply the id of the non-Ichiro voter (who didn’t reveal him/herself by way of the BBWAA poll dump at this time https://bsky.app/profile/notmrtibbs.com/publish/3lhedk4esqs2v) — however the idea of unanimity. I could also be extra responsible of stoking expectations than anybody provided that I wrote concerning the risk in my 2020 five-year outlook, however within the grand scheme, it simply doesn’t matter a lot in any respect

War2d2: Hello Jay! PECOTA has the Cubs as a playoff staff, which, among the many unfolding horrors of the world at massive in addition to some sudden and traumatic private tragedies, looks as if a lovely flower inexplicably rising out of a crevice between the bricks of a foreboding citadel of burgeoning evil.

Jay Jaffe: It says loads concerning the NL Central, most of it not good!

Reds Enjoyer: How a lot weight do you placed on PECOTA projections?

Jay Jaffe: Proper now, it’s an attention-grabbing curiosity however one i actually haven’t had time to soak up. I’m extra enthusiastic about what our projected standings will say. In each circumstances, I’m placing even much less inventory in them till simply earlier than opening day once we see the place the remaining free brokers have landed (Bregman, for one) and which pitchers we’re dropping to accidents

San Pedro: Who’s in your all time rotation of pitchers you may have seen in your lifetime?

Jay Jaffe: Oh jeez. Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez are in all probability on the high of my listing. Clemens and Maddux, in all probability. I’d in all probability add Steve Carlton there over Tom Seaver based mostly on the timeline of my fandom in that Seaver received his final Cy Younger in 1975, three years earlier than i began paying shut consideration, the place Carlton received two Cys once I was nonetheless a child.

Jay Jaffe: truly, i gotta squeeze Kershaw in there too

Jay Jaffe: Let’s say I DQ Clemens over my private distaste for the person.

Mr. Burrito: Put up Sasaki signing there’s been a variety of buzz about Dodgers’ cash being an unfair benefit. However different eras, and different groups (Yankees within the ‘30s and ‘50s; Dodgers publish Jackie Robinson), have used cash to create expertise pipelines of types, leading to plenty of WS championships. Is {that a} honest parallel, or are we seeing one thing new?

Jay Jaffe: There’s nothing new beneath the solar with regards to payroll inequities. The nice outdated days weren’t so good for those who’re in search of aggressive stability

Jay Jaffe: see: the Yankees from 1921-1964

Dancing Dan McGrew: Does the shortage of help for McCann and Martin lower the probabilities of a Realmuto’s candidacy?

Jay Jaffe: It doesn’t assist his trigger, however he’s acquired one other half-decade-ish to put in writing his personal script because the candidacies of Buster Posey and Yadier Molina play out.

Mr. Burrito: If Utley makes HOF does that change the dynamic in an enormous approach? He was superb however his profession was comparatively quick. I can suppose of some gamers who had related WAR per 162 (Reggie Smith, Jim Edmonds, Lou Whitaker) who aren’t in and, in some circumstances, arent

Jay Jaffe: It received’t change something in an enormous approach given the bottleneck of one-and-dones. It in all probability nonetheless helps Lou Whitaker, the uncommon such candidate to get again on a Committee poll, the many of the guys you’ve named regardless of the totally different shapes of their careers. In all probability helps Pedroia much more given his present candidacy

Tacoby Bellsbury: What are your largest takeaways from the BBWAA poll dump at this time?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t had time to take a look at it but given the timing of my very own work at this time

John B: Hypothetical. Staff One has a mixture of stable veterans and stable mid-level prospects. Staff Two has a mixture of star gamers however weak on the again finish of the lineup and bench. Which has a greater likelihood for achievement.

Jay Jaffe: it’s a reasonably obscure hypothetical however IIRC years in the past research confirmed that the stars-and-scrubs rosters have a better likelihood of breaking by way of.

Adenolith: Relating to non-unanimous HOF electees, I’d learn one thing that reframed my thought course of. It’s actually not good, however we’re seeing progress. Joe Dimaggio acquired 44% on his first poll. Bob Gibson was elected with 84%. Typically outdated individuals are simply going to suppose the sport was higher once they had been children and nostalgia goes to beat out sanity.

Jay Jaffe: DiMaggio’s shares of the vote usually are not comparable, provided that the five-year ready rule was kind of evolving from an unwritten one to a codified one through the time between the tip of his profession (1951) and his election (1955).

Jay Jaffe: it’s nonetheless ridiculous that Gibson acquired simply 84% but it surely additionally doesn’t actually matter.

Austin D.: For as a lot as baseball followers (effectively, sports activities followers on the whole) love what-if story, why is it that I by no means see Kal Daniels’ title talked about?

Jay Jaffe: Good level. The man hit .300/.402/.514 (151 OPS+) by way of age 26, however ongoing issues with each knees precipitated a speedy decline and disappearance from the scene.

Nick Z: Listening to that one of many obstacles for Bregman is that scouts are chattering that his athleticism has eroded to such a level that it has scared groups off. Unsure I see any underlying knowledge that completely helps that. What may we be lacking that groups/scouting dept’s are seeing?

Jay Jaffe: Test his Statcast percentile rankings for dash velocity  (from 62nd in 2019 to no greater than thirty second after 2020), arm power (no greater than thirtieth since 2020), and his typically unremarkable contact profile. These don’t paint a terrific image, however his vary, however, nonetheless seems fairly good by way of Statcast.

Macoris: Going again to 2017 Gerrit Cole has 1,374 IP of 75 ERA- | 75 FIP-. From 1951-54 Robin Roberts threw 1,328 IP of 72 ERA- | 78 FIP-. Given the vastly totally different contexts of every efficiency do you discover another spectacular than the opposite?

Jay Jaffe: Roberts’ efficiency is extra spectacular IMO in that he was doing it 300+ innings per yr and didn’t have a down season in that point; in actual fact, he had 4 straight bWAR leads. What Cole has accomplished is spectacular however he’s had his efficiency and (in 2024) bodily hiccups alongside the way in which.

Dallas: So what’s the cope with Henry Davis? I get he hasn’t hit within the majors, however he hasn’t gotten an prolonged leash and is seemingly blocked by Joey Bart and Endy Rodriguez. Is PGH simply losing belongings at this level or wouldn’t it be greatest to make a baseball commerce to fill one other place of want?

Jay Jaffe: Apart from a critical incapability to make contact with main league pitching I don’t have a terrific sense of what’s gone mistaken for Davis past the group’s unforced error of not letting him catch within the majors in 2023. I feel he’d profit from a change of surroundings and the Pirates from an improve, although the Bart/Rodriguez tandem tasks about in addition to you’d count on garden-variety Pirates to challenge (twenty third out of 30)

emarkaye: Love your work Jay! Though I’ve zero religion in Manfred (or any commish) eager about the great of the sport anymore (see $$$), do you suppose there’ll be any motion inside the subsequent decade for a world draft? With the Nippon Dodgers occurring earlier than our eyes after which the icky stuff within the Caribbean with handlers and potential dying for some gamers shuttling round (Cubans), it appears it must be one thing they do… for the great of the sport (and folks’s security).

Jay Jaffe: wouldn’t shock me if we get one thing within the subsequent CBA, although the percentages of which might be in all probability diminished if the homeowners lock the gamers out once more

Jay Jaffe: okay people, I’ve acquired a couple of issues pulling me away from right here. Thanks a lot for stopping by and marveling at my skill to drag off chatting two weeks in a row. Search for that batting common factor quickly!