RosterResource Chat – 1/31/25

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the RosterResource Reside Chat! We’ll get to as many questions as attainable. Right here we go …

AL Central Casting: Any ideas on the place J.D. Martinez winds up signing? There’s not lots of demand for RH DHs so does he find yourself going to whoever presents him essentially the most in the beginning of spring coaching? Perhaps with an eye fixed towards getting traded to a contender later? Does he look forward to spring accidents to spice up his market?

Jon Becker: Jon Heyman reported simply final night time that he’s planning on enjoying this 12 months, and it’s unsurprising that there hasn’t been any reported curiosity in him (that doesn’t imply there isn’t any) since he’s a DH-only who was simply 8% above league common final 12 months by wRC+. He’d nonetheless be an improve for a bunch of groups however I can even perceive these groups not eager to lock of their DH slot. If he’s open to sitting extra typically (possibly towards powerful righties?) he’d make lots of sense for the Diamondbacks, Padres, Royals, and Giants (although the latter two groups don’t have good parks to hit in). Marlins additionally make sense if he’s advantageous enjoying for a non-contender.

B Turang: What’s going to the Brewers do with their infield? Transfer Ortiz, Turang, or neither to SS?

Jason Martinez: I feel it’s going to rely upon who wins the open infield spot. If Oliver Dunn is the beginning 3B, then Ortiz at SS and Turang stays at 2B. If Caleb Durbin is the beginning 2B, then Turang strikes to SS and Ortiz stays at 3B. Nonetheless just a few good free agent choices, too. I feel Jose Iglesias could be match at 2B and Yoan Moncada could be an fascinating bounce-back candidate at 3B.

Matt: Do the Cubs nonetheless want a RHH 1B to backup Michael Busch or might Jon Berti try this this season?

Jon Becker: My guess is that they’d be completely advantageous if it simply finally ends up being Berti. Backup 1B as a extra particular position has kinda passed by the wayside because the common DH — normally the backup 1B was additionally your prime PH, shoutout Daryle Ward and Greg Norton! — and now it’s lots of “we’ll give this man some work in spring coaching simply in case we’d like him.”

DJ: Estevez or Erceg get first crack at closing in KC?

Jason Martinez: I feel it’s both Estevez or “no set nearer” after which it’s nonetheless principally Estevez with Erceg getting share. Perhaps an an occasional save likelihood for one of many different guys (Harvey, Schreiber, Zerpa). Erceg appears fairly snug coming in sooner than the ninth and getting 4+ outs. I can see him getting some 4-5 out saves, however I feel he’s all the time extra more likely to get the decision earlier within the recreation than Estevez. So much less doubtless for a save likelihood.

Dana Brown: It appears extremely unlikely he will likely be moved, however what might the Astros get for Framber Valdez?

Jon Becker: The Burnes deal goes to be my go-to comp for Framber, Stop, and King since all of them have very roughly the identical commerce worth. The Astros now are comp to the Brewers final offseason in that they’ll need MLB-ready expertise, most likely particularly a LHH OF and a pitcher (starter or reliever, or some sort of hybrid, like DL Corridor). Heston Kjerstaad and Cade Povich very broadly match that mould, simply to throw a hypothetical on the market.

Kate: What the heck do you all make of the Dodgers pen at this level?  RR makes it appear to be an enormous shrug emoji and I’m unsure I blame you.  Looks like Scott and Yates prob have a leg up on the remainder for saves although, no?

Jason Martinez: I’ve it listed as committee proper now simply because I feel Dave Roberts is tremendous assured (possibly even a bit smug) about his roster (why wouldn’t he be?) and it might be sort of a flex to only have 5-6 totally different guys getting saves so he can show that anybody in his bullpen is usually a nearer. Nevertheless, Scott/Yates obtained paid like closers and I’d anticipate them to get the most important share of save probabilities.

Rayball10: The place do you see Rengifo enjoying principally in 2025? What number of complete video games?

Jon Becker: Proper now we’re allocating him 595 PA, second on the workforce. Most of that’s evenly break up between second and third, however Christian Moore developing prior to anticipated would power Rengifo to bounce round extra, or simply have him take over at third with Rendon on the bench/DHing extra.

diadem: What was Yamamoto’s well being historical past in japan? Any crimson flags?

Jason Martinez: Purple flag is that he throws a baseball as quick as he can for a dwelling. In all seriousness, I feel he stayed comparatively wholesome in Japan. Not even positive if he’s had a TJ surgical procedure. Undecided if {that a} good factor or not since it will definitely comes for each pitcher.

Kate: Is Starling Marte a short-side platoon man at this level?

Jon Becker: If he’s on the Mets, that’s actually all that’s open for him. They’ve tried to commerce him someplace the place he can get extra enjoying time however they understandably have had lots of hassle with that since he’s making $19 million this 12 months and is absolutely poor on protection now.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Is there a strategy to talk the diploma of confidence in itemizing a workforce’s nearer(s), particularly the place there are a number of candidates (see DET) or unproven ones (see CHW)?

Jason Martinez: You possibly can ask me right here, social media, or e mail me at rosters@fangraphs.com. At all times pleased to debate my pondering behind any roster or enjoying time projection. Many of the nearer projections that present a co-closing state of affairs or committee fall someplace between “a number of good candidates” and “zero good candidates”. Tigers have a number of good ones and confirmed final season that they weren’t afraid to go along with totally different guys. White Sox have zero good candidates.

Rayball10: What kind of position(s) do you see Eiberson Castellano in for the Twins to maintain him up all 12 months?

Jon Becker: He’s going to have to point out he might be actually helpful as a multi-inning reliever, as a result of he’s buried on the depth chart for starters. Even when Varland is a full-time reliever he’s nonetheless behind López, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Paddack, Festa, and Matthews for begins, at minimal.

Visitor: Is Zach Neto anticipated to be wholesome for Opening Day?

Jason Martinez: Not lots of information out there right now. We simply know that he’s “questionable”. A variety of these with “questionable” standing will begin turning into clearer as soon as Spring Coaching begins as a result of the supervisor or GM begin answering extra questions regularly and so they have a greater thought on participant’s well being as soon as they really present up and begin doing baseball actions. I believe they’ll be cautious with Neto. Appears to be an important a part of their workforce in order that they want him at 100%.

Kate: What are the percentages Brendan Rodgers lands someplace with a (near) on a regular basis position?

Jon Becker: I’d say a reasonably good likelihood, since he doesn’t steal bases nor does he play wherever apart from second base, so he’s a really powerful promote as something however a beginning second baseman. Yankees have reported curiosity, and speculatively he’d make sense as a White Sox stopgap or Brewer (in the event that they wish to re-rearrange the infield and go along with Turang at quick and Ortiz at third).

Alec: Does Curtis Mead get one other run at a major-league roll someday this 12 months? Does he seem to be a commerce candidate after the Kim signing?

Jason Martinez: Probably not a path to enjoying time, a minimum of not heading into 2025. If the Rays fall out of competition, Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe will virtually actually be on the commerce market and that will open up some enjoying time for Mead. Apart from that, I feel a commerce could be his finest wager. Undecided his worth is the place the Rays would need it to be, although. He would possibly must put up some massive numbers in AAA to attract curiosity from different groups.

Alec: Is there room for Ryne Nelson within the crowded rotation/bullpen in Arizona this 12 months? He has some actually robust outings within the second half of final 12 months

Jon Becker: The rotation seems to be unlikely as issues sit, however I’d wish to see them attempt him out within the bullpen. He had that one Sunday Night time Baseball begin towards the Astros the place he was throwing 97-99 within the early innings, and if he can try this on each fastball as a reliever, he’d be an actual weapon.

JD: Will Kike Hernandez be within the Dodgers plans this 12 months? Have they got to launch Chris Taylor to make it work?

Jason Martinez: There’s room proper now. Andy Pages would start the season in AAA, although. I feel they’d be open to releasing Taylor sooner or later in 2025. Simply not earlier than the season begins. At all times an opportunity he figures one thing out and is rather a lot higher than the final couple seasons.

Dan H: The Large’s have two acknowledged objectives which might be seemingly at odds, given the state of their farm and roster. One is to trim payroll, and the opposite is to compete. We’ve seen strikes signaling each of those (e.g buying and selling Rogers for money reduction, signing Adames to an enormous deal), however at the moment it looks like they’re caught within the center. Who do you see as reasonable targets for them to pursue to perform every of those objectives, understanding that outdoors of Eldridge they don’t have a lot to deal? I’d love a Flaherty signing to open up a commerce of a younger pitcher, however that feels unlikely at this level.

Jon Becker: I’m unsure these are inherently at odds, since we estimate they’ve $30M to work with earlier than hitting final 12 months’s payroll, so they might nonetheless reduce payroll (simply by a smaller quantity) whereas, say, signing Flaherty or Pivetta. I feel not reinvesting the Rogers money could be a mistake with their clear wants (bullpen might use some assist and so they would possibly need yet another bat); I do know Posey stated they like their roster the place it’s at however that would very effectively be posturing. Baseball ops heads don’t wish to come throughout as determined.

JJ: ETA on ZIPS integration into FGDC? Thanks!

Jason Martinez: Final 12 months, I requested instantly after Dan completed his final workforce as a result of I’m not very affected person. He nonetheless had some issues to do earlier than it could possibly be blended into the method so it took a minimum of just a few additional days. Hopefully, we’re on observe for someday subsequent week.

scuffy McGee: What non marquee free agent are you shocked hasn’t signed but

Jon Becker: This can be a very lame reply, however there aren’t actually any that shock me. If gamers haven’t signed it’s as a result of there’s a disconnect with what they need (whether or not that’s cash or enjoying time or location) and what’s on the market, and with any given free agent, elite all the best way on down, that may be the case. It simply takes longer for some guys to both decrease their asking worth or get a workforce to up its supply.

Jason Martinez: Jose Iglesias. Mr. OMG.

daro: What are the percentages Kristian Campbell is the opening day 2b? Will they simply sit Vaughn Grissom? Is Campbell actually prepared for the Present?

Jason Martinez: If I needed to put odds on it, I’d say 50/50 proper now. Hamilton was fascinating sufficient final season to provide him one other look, even when it’s simply to provide Campbell just a few extra weeks in AAA. However I’m fairly positive if Campbell seems to be snug at 2B and places up massive numbers (not onerous to do in Spring Coaching), it’s gonna be troublesome to ship him to the minors when he might get a head-start on successful the AL Rookie of the 12 months award.

Mochi: Will Wagner getting any 3B motion this 12 months in Toronto?

Jon Becker: For positive, particularly in the event that they add one other hitter to chop into Wagner’s DH time. Clement is enjoyable and fascinating however he makes extra sense as a bench participant who bounces round.

Jimmy: A’s are a sneaky workforce for alternative as they transfer to a extra offensively lenient park. their depth chart now – they’re throwing Brown/Andujar platoon in LF… how lengthy earlier than they understand they need to simply give a man like Colby Thomas full-time PAs?

Jason Martinez: I feel Brown/Andujar is usually a completely enough platoon. Brown completed robust after they referred to as him again up and Andujar crushes lefties. However, with that stated, Brown received’t have a protracted leash and Thomas could be subsequent in line if he continues to hit effectively in AAA.

Willie Mays Hays: Is Kerry Carpenter going to be a platoon participant once more in 2025?  Or do you anticipate extra ABs towards LHPs?

Jon Becker: I anticipate his utilization will likely be similar to final 12 months, when he virtually completely confronted righties. Simply too many righties and swap hitters (Vierling, Ibáñez, Wenceel, Justyn-Henry Malloy) to get enjoying time for all year long.

Pads-Cubs Commerce: How truthful is Stop for Caissie & Birdsell?

Jason Martinez: It’s most likely shut, though rather a lot would rely upon how a lot the Padres like Birdsell. He appears to be a prospect on the rise. I’d hope that Javier Assad could be a part of the return. Mexican pitcher from Tijuana with 4 years of service time remaining looks like an important match. Caissie would give them a LF/DH candidate. Add in a prospect (Birdsell or somebody comparable) and I feel it’s deal.

Hunter: Which of Detroit’s fringy guys that may’t actually discipline (Tork, JHM, Jung) do you assume are most fascinating in a commerce?

Jon Becker: Tork for positive. There’s not enjoying time for him in Detroit anymore, and that “first general choose” shine doesn’t go away this shortly.

Visitor: Is Kjerstad going to finish up with lots of enjoying time by filling in each time one other hitter will get a break day, or will he be restricted to 100-250 PA?

Jason Martinez: Apart from Gunnar Henderson, the O’s lineup is filled with guys who might use 1-2 days off per week. There are simply 400+ PA out there for a “bench participant” on most groups. Simpler stated than achieved, however I additionally assume it’s mandatory for Kjerstad this season. Can’t let the younger guys sit on the bench too typically. If he’s on the workforce, I’d anticipate 3-5 begins per week.

Adames the Large: Ought to the Giants commerce Yastrzemski? What might they get?

Jon Becker: As their roster at the moment consists, no, I wouldn’t commerce him. He’s a solidly common or higher hitter and good fielder, and there’s not an apparent on a regular basis substitute for him. I don’t assume they’d get a lot again in a deal anyway, so it might turn into a “why trouble?” state of affairs, extra so than the Rogers commerce.

Visitor: Do you assume the Nats are proper to stay with Jacob Younger in CF quite than shifting Wooden or Crews there?

Jason Martinez: For positive. Younger is an elite defender and he’s not likely blocking a prime prospect. Perhaps Robert Hassell III forces his method into the image this season. Till then, they’ll discover out if Younger is a greater hitter than he’s confirmed thus far. On the following nice Nats workforce, I’d guess Younger is the 4th OF. However they don’t should make that call but.

Alec: Who will get extra at-bats in Milwaukee this 12 months – Tyler Black or Jeferson Quero?

Jon Becker: I’ll say Black, that infield is a jumbled mess and he might undoubtedly combat by way of for loads of plate appearances, whereas Contreras would play 162 video games in the event that they let him, Haase is a strong backup, and Quero might want to get again in control after final 12 months’s damage.

James: Any updates on Bradish, when will he be able to rejoin the rotation?

Jason Martinez: He had Tommy John surgical procedure in June. It’s extremely unlikely that he returns in 2025. Excellent news is that he’s beneath workforce management via 2028 and he must be prepared for a full season in 2026. That doesn’t imply we received’t hear about how nice his arm feels and the way he’s forward of schedule a number of instances all through the season.

Matt: No query, simply wished to thanks guys for the entire work you do! Obsessively checking the roster pages and the matrix makes the winter go by sooner

Jason Martinez: Recognize it! I really like the offseason virtually as a lot because the common season. Only some extra slow-ish weeks after which continuous baseball within the information cycle.

Jason Martinez: Thanks for becoming a member of us! We’ll be again subsequent Friday on the identical time. Have an important weekend.