Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 1/24/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Hi there from crisp Tempe the place guys are slicing lifeless limbs off of bushes on my road. A few of these huge coniferous jawns haven’t been doing so properly with temps being what they’ve been. When ought to I transfer?

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s chat.

Anne: Bullish on the offensive ceilings of Xavier Isaac and Laz Montes? Seen them slip in some rankings, however purely on offense nonetheless center of the order kind ceilings?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve been larger on Isaac than Montes. Montes doesn’t have huge energy. I do know he’s big, however he’s slugged extra due to the leagues/stadiums he’s performed in additional than due to his uncooked energy. He additionally has a sub-70% contact charge. Mariners prospects will be overvalued in the course of the Modesto/Everett window after which maybe individuals over right once they get to Arkansas (which is a tricky place to hit)…

Eric A Longenhagen: Isaac has elite energy, however his swing is a multitude and desires to alter if he’s going to hit sufficient to be related. His ceiling, imo, is clearly larger than Lazaro’s as a result of the facility is lurking.

Followers MLB Eternally: What do you concentrate on the nameless voters that the Cooperstown Corridor of Fame has and what could be the answer or what do you concentrate on the minimal vote for every poll being 5 votes or extra?

Eric A Longenhagen: First let me remind readers that I’m not a part of any of those our bodies that do the voting, be it on single-season awards or the HoF…

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe in the event you consider you’re competent sufficient to forged an inexpensive vote, that it’s best to should make it public. Each time we now have a difficulty like this, the place somebody’s vote is means out of pocket, it’s at all times an individual who retains their poll a secret. Each troll is a coward…

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s constant, throughout extra than simply HoF voting, and it may be so simple as forcing the physique to publicize its votes, and possibly clarify them.

Eric A Longenhagen: However that is what it brings about, greater than we’re revisiting the careers of those guys, we’re speaking about this one dope.

Eric A Longenhagen: When you advised me that I may strategically not vote for Ichiro, and that as a substitute if I voted for Kenny Lofton it might guarantee Lofton stayed on the poll, then possibly I’d do it.

Eric A Longenhagen: However the truth that strategic voting like that is incentivized is an indication that the best way the voting is finished is dumb.

Eric A Longenhagen: I additionally get individuals need to striate these things. It’s not sufficient to say that Derek Jeter is a HoF’er, individuals need you to know the place they assume he suits among the many group, how he ranks with Frank Robinson, and so on. And I believe individuals attempt to obtain that through making guys wait earlier than they vote for them.

Eric: Raudy Reyes changing into Jarlin Susana could be like a good end result for the Braves, sure?

Followers MLB Eternally: What do you assume occurred that Bregman has not signed?

Eric A Longenhagen: The way in which he’s performed himself is an issue for some?

James: What do you consider the A’s trio of pitching prospects: Luis Morales, Mason Barnett, and Jack Perkins? Do any of them realistically mission as mid-rotation starters?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m fairly miserly on the subject of handing out “mid rotation” grades. I skinny Morales has the expertise for it, Barnett is extra of a 4/5 for me (which to you would possibly imply mid rotation) whereas Perk I believe is a reliever.

Shirtless George Brett: Will any of the Royals catching prospects truly stick at catcher? Mitchell and Jensen’s fielding strains is fairly scary (Mitchell allowed 110 SB and had 16 errors in solely 530 innings? WTF?)

Eric A Longenhagen: Each are sketchy. That’s par for a teenage catcher, the dearth of progress from each is irritating. You retain each alive as prospects as a result of the league vast stock at that place is scarce.

Visitor: Do you assume it was coincidence the Rays acquired three arms on the deadline that each one have Tanner Houck profiles, all low slot releases that don’t quit HRs ? And who of the three has highest ceiling ?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Hopkins. They usually, and numerous the league, has been extra on low-release guys for the final short time

Tim: Am I proper to be involved about Spencer Jones? That strikeout charge was monstrous and although the counting stats seemed good ultimately, it received’t matter if he’s already placing out so massively.

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe you will be involved and excited on the similar time. Take a ten thousand foot view, he’s a 6’6″ former two means man, did we predict he’d by no means want an adjustment interval?

Cliff Avril: You don’t grade many instruments as a 65 as of late. Not a grievance or something. Simply an remark.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, until there’s an excellent motive to do it (if a man has 70 uncooked energy however I believe it’ll play down a shade as a result of his strategy is dangerous, or no matter) it’s not an particularly helpful grade by itself

Eric A Longenhagen: 35 I’m extra on board with as a result of it seems like substitute degree, ya know? Like the brink beneath which having a software that dangerous turns into an issue.

Eric A Longenhagen: 4 arm? Meh, no matter, go to left discipline it’s okay. 3 arm? You’re coughing up additional bases on a regular basis.

Pumpsie Inexperienced: Is Ethan Salas extra of a defensive prospect than offensive? And are the Padres pushing him sooner than somebody his age ought to be?

Eric A Longenhagen:

1. Sure, 2. not anymore however at one level sure

Ryan Russell: So who employed Travis? Any plans to exchange him?

Eric A Longenhagen: The Rays did, he began earlier this month. I’m so, so grateful to him for his work and experience. He has a ridiculous motor, I’m so proud to name him my pal and to have had him as a colleague. Congrats to him on getting again within the recreation like he got down to.

Eric A Longenhagen: And sure.

Sam: What’s your threshold for contemplating a farm system high heavy? Do you have a look at an goal measure (e.g. proportion of worth tied up in high 5 gamers) or is it extra of a really feel factor?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s extra simply really feel however most techniques have near 40 guys on their listing, so when an org like Philly has nearer to 30 however 3 or extra of them are studs up high that qualifies as high heavy to me.

Kawann Brief: Is repeating the DSL a serious concern for guys who land 7 determine bonuses or do a number of the higher athletes simply want the time to determine it out? How ought to I interpret optimistic outcomes for guys who play down there the 2nd time round? Asking extra usually, however I seen Adriel Radney nonetheless will get a forty five from you regardless of his lackluster 2024.

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe repeating the DSL has turn out to be frequent now that we’ve misplaced two rosters value of spots. Ideally you crush in your first yr and pressure the org’s hand to advertise you, particularly whenever you’re a high signee. However largely there are simply good gamers who repeat there. In Radney’s case I believe a lingering again difficulty offers you a motive to remain on him, lean in your priors slightly than minimize bait.

Ryan Kerrigan: Will the Roki Sasaki bonus pool saga this yr affect the worldwide market shifting ahead? I’d think about a handshake deal at age 14 seems riskier if groups are going to only minimize you free so near signing day. Or does this solely apply to a choose few groups just like the Dodgers now that they’ve set the precedent for doing so?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe a scenario the place a baddie like Roki causes you one to sprint their agreements is uncommon sufficient that Latin American prospects and their trainers/brokers shouldn’t be paranoid about it taking place consistently. There may be some particular person team-and-agent relationships which can be extra bitter now due to how individuals behaved, although.

scottsjunkmail: I’m making an attempt to higher perceive which abilities translate finest from the higher minors to the majors. When you knew that there have been two gamers, every with a real expertise wRC+ of 140 in AAA, and the key league true expertise wRC+ of considered one of them was 80 and the opposite 120, what would you be capable to infer about their profiles?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d guess (emphasis on guess) considered one of them can’t hit velocity. There are simply issues taking place on the huge league degree you could’t recreate within the minors. Breaking ball high quality and velocity are two huge ones. Other than the legit prospects, who aren’t there for very lengthy, the perfect Triple-A pitcher could be the thirteenth finest pitcher on the massive league group. You’re skipping from Professional to All Madden whenever you go to the massive leagues.

James: Colby Thomas acquired some high 100 love from Baseball America, however you had him as #25 on the A’s listing. Clearly strikeouts are a serious concern,  however why is Fangraphs so down on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: An ideal comply with up…

Eric A Longenhagen: Let me say first that this isn’t to tug my buddies at BA, who do nice work. It’s wholesome to disagree about a few of these guys. There are issues about Colby Thomas, visually and statistically, which can be good. He has energy, he’s on time to tug, he takes wonderful care of his physique and he’s sturdy and quick…

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s additionally a righty-hitting nook OF, whose chase charge (within the minors) is greater than a full normal deviation beneath the massive league common. His contact charge is a couple of normal deviation beneath the massive league common. His head is flying in every single place when he swings as a result of he swings with a lot effort (Matt Mervis was this manner too).

Eric A Longenhagen: What’s that gonna be like towards huge league stuff? I don’t assume it’s 2 annual WAR good.

I Made the Chat for As soon as!!: Not a chat answerable query however an thought for an article. Are you able to give perception into the logistics of groups scouting? There are such a lot of MLB, minor league, after which potential draftees and IAFA signees. Do groups usually scout all of those gamers, or have they got a goal listing and solely gather knowledge on these guys? What number of guys will a scout analyze at a single recreation? Is video changing into the go to for a lot of orgs now?

Eric A Longenhagen: As shortly as I can: Robust there may be extra hybridization occurring, groups often have a professional scouting employees, a home novice scouting employees, and a global employees. Each professional participant is scouted. Each DI faculty participant is scouted, or has knowledge collected that signifies they need to be a scouting goal. How properly groups scout JUCOs and Division II and III faculties varies, although I’d say extra data-oriented groups are usually those who need in-person seems to be at these gamers as a result of they in any other case lack knowledge on them…

Eric A Longenhagen: What number of scout a single recreation? Relies upon. Typically an space scout, a crosschecker, and a scouting director will likely be at Potential First Rounder’s recreation. Largely it’s one scout per recreation.

Jorge: Hendry Mendez had some good floor numbers as a 20 yr outdated in A+, however didn’t get a point out within the Phillies listing. Lack of energy or potential for improvement thereof an excessive amount of to beat?

Eric A Longenhagen: Coulda been an HM, has numerous the identical points as Crawford however with out as explosive the instruments. Extra LF match, much less projectable. Liked him at one level, has stagnated.

Shaun Phillips: Superb base defensive entrance

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m a 4-3 man, however I like to combine it up.

Eric A Longenhagen: My GameCube died final evening so I received’t be doing any 4-3 Beneath nonsense with Peppers and Suggs anymore.

Bean Counter: Because the emphasis right now is the Phillies, what do you see for Justin Crawford? Do you assume he has the physique to develop equal energy as his father?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve a bearish view as a result of I don’t assume he’ll succeed together with his present swing, and I don’t assume he’s an particularly expert defender. He’s gifted, he has upside, I simply assume there’s an enormous hole between what he seems to be like now and what’ll have to appear like for him to succeed.

Theo be Praised: Is Kevin Alcantara a pure CF?  If that’s the case, it looks like he could be prime commerce candidate, right?  CF would maximize his worth, and PCA most likely has that locked down for the Cubs….

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure and sure

Eric A Longenhagen: Man, idk, he’s such a singular expertise but it surely has gone a lot, a lot worse than I anticipated.

M’s Fan: Who’s a mariners prospect that you’re larger on than the consensus? One that you’re decrease on?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve tended to be larger on Farmelo and decrease on Montes and Arroyo. From the sounds of issues in these chats I’ll be larger on Harry Ford, who I was the low man on.

Muggsy: Do you think about Tim Duncan an influence ahead, or have been the Spurs simply enjoying two facilities? Does Giannis want one other ring to go Dirk/Garnett within the all time rankings?

Eric A Longenhagen: Timmy was a PF on offense and a C on protection. He would possibly go Dirk with simply the one, KG yeah go get no. 2.

JordanWicksTruther: Hey Eric, big fan. I used to be questioning if you’ll be able to inform the standard of an Worldwide class on signing day the identical means you’re in a position to inform the standard of a draft class on draft day? Everybody’s extensively held opinions concerning the final two draft courses have been largely true, however is there an excessive amount of variance at 16 to know with out hindsight? When you can inform, what do you concentrate on this most up-to-date class total?

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks for saying that. I believe the error bar for an Int’l class is far, a lot greater. The character of the market — with such younger gamers who change a lot so quick, and who conform to offers early and aren’t seen a ton afterward — makes it that means. Having mentioned that, this nonetheless seems like a barely down yr, at the least up high…

Eric A Longenhagen: Do you’ve a monitor file of hitting insofar as you possibly can on this market? Are you able to play a premium place? Are you bodily projectable? There isn’t a slam dunk man who has all three of these items on this yr’s group. Josuar is closest.

Sox fan: I do know you simply launched your 2025 worldwide listing, however are there any guys for 2026 receiving any hype already? Any groups trying like they’ve have sturdy courses? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll have a “high of 26” kind drop for Prospect Week, which begins the week following the Tremendous Bowl.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everybody, I’ve gotta say your questions this week have been excellent. I’m gonna go get some train in whereas it’s sunny and get jamming on High 100 and Prospect Week stuff. Search for the Yankees listing subsequent week, and possibly the Braves, Jays, or Tigers, too. I respect your readership and hope you’ll think about an ad-free sub to the positioning. TTFN