Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 1/17/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, the place the Dream Collection kicked off his morning. My attendance there plus what seems prefer it may be a looming Roki determination (he’s my accountability to write down up) means our chat will probably be shorter immediately.

Eric A Longenhagen: the place to search out the stuff I wrote for his week, I belief. So let’s get to it..

Phil: So all of the signal are there. Roki will probably be a Blue Jay.

Eric A Longenhagen: A GM simply advised me that once they sourced uncommitted bonus pool quantities that Toronto had $1 million left. Buying a reported $2 mil places them at an obtainable $3 mil with out breaking a deal.

Eric A Longenhagen: So we will see

CY: Any perception on the Rangers pitching growth this previous yr? Looks as if they received quite a lot of breakouts with Alejandro rosario, kumar rocker, emiliano teodo, winston santos, kohl drake, and even some relief-only prospects in bryan magdaleno and skylar hales

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I imply, Rosario’s breakout may be extra in regards to the U of Miami’s incompetence greater than the Rangers having some sort of magic, and it isn’t like Rocker was *unhealthy*, simply damage. That’s a great system, however I don’t see a particular change or trait occurring throughout that checklist of names.

Eric A Longenhagen: Good things, scary management, getting previous the place his wildness could be defined away by an absence of reps.

Felix: Who’s checklist is subsequent?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m working the Gulf Coast golf equipment now, would guess certainly one of PHI or NYY with PIT, TOR, ATL, DET within the combine

Visitor: Who excites you probably the most from the Mets 2024 draft class?

Eric A Longenhagen: Simply Benge, principally. Possibly they’ll make one thing out of Tanner Witt? I as soon as thought he’d be good.

doughboy: Honest to say winds of change coming and McGonigle is quickly surpassing Max Clark because the jewel of the Tigers d2023 draft class?

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely isn’t loopy, McGonigle is sweet, seems unbelievable (and comfortably higher than Clark) on the spreadsheet.

Mucho: Any thought why Dawel Joseph faceplanted so laborious within the DSL final season? Can he rebound?

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s simply volatility in that market, he was an arrow down man throughout the dedication window.

Terry Loves Tech: Alejandro Rosario appears to be getting hyped a bunch. Are you excessive on him too?

Eric A Longenhagen: He entered the highest 100 throughout the ’24 season, so….

Refugee: Course of query: how do you be sure you’re staying up-to-date with the trade? You’ve talked about the way you iterate (particularly with sure varieties of hit device danger), however that appears to mirror on the way you study from your self, versus maintaining with entrance places of work and scouts.

Eric A Longenhagen: Are you speaking about staying updated on gamers, or methodology, or what? That is nearly an amazing query, I hope it’s positive for me to say “sure” and transfer on.

Eric A Longenhagen: I assume Skenes, extra bodily and higher well being observe report. I’ll throw Eury Perez’s identify into that group, don’t overlook about that man.

Sodo Mojo: Harry Ford appears to be sliding out of quite a lot of prime 100s this preseason.  Given his age and stage is that untimely or is his lack of energy and questions on his place a sound purpose to down rank him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have a tendency to offer catchers a large berth due to their job description. This has labored out for me generally and never at others. Like Adley slugged .390 this yr, do you assume that’s his true expertise, or do you assume he was dinged up?

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Is there something to Esteban Mejía (RHP, 17) for Baltimore? Was respectable within the DSL however clearly has generic command/management issues. Higher 90s, one way or the other modified his arm slot from high-3/4s to low-3/4s based mostly on his official announcement video vs. 2024 recreation tape. Making an attempt to guess the place he’s beginning subsequent yr.

Eric A Longenhagen: Have him as much as 97, distinct two and 4 seamers, slider performed like a plus pitch, def a prospect, hope he’s in FL

Johnny5Alive: I’ve seen quite a lot of hype articles about zyhir hope. I assume he hasn’t been up to date but or are you not shopping for the hype?

Eric A Longenhagen: I get questions on him each week, I’ve written about him and assume he’s a forty five+, smaller information pattern from ’24 is masking how a lot swing and miss he has, much like Colson Montgomery the yr earlier than, assume he’s good however flawed sufficient to not be all-in

Helly R.: Tejada is listed as an org man on immediately’s SF, do you have got a bit of extra data on that? Is it lack of projection, hit device, athleticism, and many others.?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, the numbers are enormous however the look is simply okay, medium instruments and projection

Shirtless George Brett: What do you consider the Royals mainly killing the concept of Caglianone pitching? I do know they mentioned “this yr” however I cant think about he goes again to the mound afterwards. you assume he’s athletic sufficient to shift to LF/RF if he’s simply gonna hit? His  arm appears kinda wasted at 1B and god do the Royals want assist in the OF.

Eric A Longenhagen: Run him out as a hitter and revisit the mound if he flops. Regarded unhealthy within the AFL, swing is so lengthy. Let him deal with hitting for a yr and see what occurs, his ceiling is larger there and his arm may want extended relaxation, the man’s velo was approach approach down final yr.

Bork: Do we’ve got any intel on the place Sasaki is presently? Or if he’s on a aircraft flying wherever? Asking for a buddy.

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, I’m chatting with y’all and attempting to determine the best way to squeeze a exercise in earlier than Dream Collection, not attempting to play newsbreaker immediately.

WFTF: Are you doing a “How’s My Driving” for 2018 this yr? I think about it’s tremendous time consuming to supply, however we hardly ever see publications consider previous rankings.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s on the prospect week docket

Pinstripe Perry: Assuming Sasaki heads to LA, have you ever heard any trade grumbling in regards to the perceived Dodgers/Japan pipeline? Or is that principally a fan speaking level.

Eric A Longenhagen: Like there’s predetermination? No. Please delete your Twitters, everybody.

TooDamnTall: I simply wished to say a giant thanks for all of your work.

Eric A Longenhagen: My pleasure, thanks

SteveS: Eric: Love your work. For those who needed to spend money on 3 prospects (not together with Roki) which are prone to contribute this yr, who would they be?

Bob: Given the volatility with teenage prospects, worldwide signings appear to be a an actual crapshoot. Are you aware if there has examine correlating signing bonuses and profession WAR?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bonus quantity was probably the most influential and telling variable final examine I turned awareof, however bear in mind the variables we’ve got for that market are restricted. Groups are monitoring contact charges, hell even development plates and stuff like that. I don’t have something like that. Top, weight, DOB, what academy they prepare at, bonus quantity…fairly restricted

Bork: FYI Davidi simply reported Guardians despatched the Jays $3.75m

Eric A Longenhagen: Yowser

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d guess that’s occurring, I don’t assume they’d be buying and selling for area until they knew that they had him, wouldn’t be doing it on spec in a race with the Dodgers.

Bork: Oh cancel the $3.75m, it’s simply money. I’m good.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ah, see, I can get received in these chats

Adam: Paul Gervase actually seems fascinating to me. Does he get a shot on the Majors this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, he’s behind he guys already on the 40-man, however conceivable he will get his first style in ’25, assume he’s a extremely good wager for ’26

Kate: What’s your learn on JR Ritchie after his return from TJ?  Velo didn’t appear all the best way again.  Is that this the brand new regular and we have to knock him down an FV tier?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll most likely maintain it the place it’s and knock him down if it isn’t higher throughout the spring.

TooDamnTall: Is projecting a pitcher to extend velo much less probably now that almost all/all of been via a pitching lab?

Eric A Longenhagen: It is determined by the person, even those who’ve been in a lab aren’t essentially executed rising as folks, bodily or personally.

Pinstripe Perry: Is there something particular you’ve seen with how NYY is creating catchers defensively? Appears they’ve been capable of repeatedly assist each MiLB and MLB guys enhance (Wells, Trevino, and many others.). Is that an org ability or happenstance?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe Tanner Swanson is sweet.

Kate: Is Drake Baldwin a Murphy harm away from being the on a regular basis beginning catcher in Atlanta?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe so, sure.

Eric A Longenhagen: Guess he’d break up time with Chadwick initially, although.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, somebody simply texted me that the two mil Cleveland despatched to Toronto was all of their remaining pool

Jays Fan: If the bluejays signal Sasaki would we kiss our total class for the upcoming interval goodbye or can we maintain some

Eric A Longenhagen: That is changing into the query, proper? How a lot cash is it gonna take to signal him, and the way a lot are you able to purchase to attempt to maintain Polanco. For those who can’t maintain him, who has the cash to go get him? Cleveland would have been my reply however now they’re out of cash.

Eric A Longenhagen: Kurtz

Eric A Longenhagen: Betcha Kurtz is the primary bat from 24 to get there

Alex: Ought to we be afraid of Ethan Salas‘ manufacturing final yr? Or ought to it’s defined away as him being a teen in A+ ball?

Eric A Longenhagen: Little of each, for those who’re questioning for the needs of fantasy baseball then you need to transfer on from him, it’s a defense-driven profile.

Alf: I assumed that Toronto (or LA) can be giving Sasaki all of its worldwide bonus pool cash (“dedicated” or not). Are you saying that’s not the case?

Eric A Longenhagen: We simply don’t know but. If the man didn’t care to make $200 million two years from now, what’s the distinction between 3 mil and seven mil to him?

&Bullwinkle: Robert Calaz is a man who has proven up on a number of of High 100 lists this offseason — He’s #10 in your 2025 COL checklist after being a way-too-early pick-to-click final offseason. What’s protecting you extra reserved in on him after his 2024?

Eric A Longenhagen: The Okay’s, he has a lot swing and miss. The exit velos are enormous however so have been Maikel Escotto’s.  Plus I used to be advised by a scout not with COL that Calaz had shoulder surgical procedure after the season. My Rockies supply gained’t verify it to me (both approach) and I don’t perceive why.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, he’s okay, has the physique so as to add velo if he retains at it, hasn’t been in professional ball on a energy program all that lengthy. Been on my radar since his Dream Collection bullpen, hope it really works out for him.

Matt: Any updates on the lawsuit towards the Angels for reneging on agreements with DR gamers from a pair years in the past?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, I bugged Passan about it this week and he had no updates on it, both.

sliptoad: It looks as if you’ve been the excessive man on Melton for some time, the consensus on the Tucker commerce was that Smith simply slotted in on the prime of the farm, in comparison with different writers are you increased on Melton or simply decrease on Smith?

Eric A Longenhagen: Larger on Melton

Eric A Longenhagen: I consider so, he’s monumental and has a hose

Eric A Longenhagen: the remainder I believe will probably be positive with time

victoria: Lynch was particular as a result of he had a ravishing head of hair pushing 80

Eric A Longenhagen: Reality, and stored all of it despite the fact that he was a human chimney

Finnegan’s SSW: Yankees and Dodgers (and Jays) haven’t introduced any worldwide signings but, right?

Eric A Longenhagen: As of my final test, right.

Andrew: Your writeup of Emil Morales final yr was glowing; something from his efficiency within the Dominican Summer time League that raises long-term considerations?

Eric A Longenhagen: sub-70% contact within the DSL is a yellow flag

ALF: How good/unhealthy would a participant should be in a small pattern dimension just like the AFL/LIDOM for it to have an effect on your opinion on him? I assume issues like velocity or swing selections matter greater than the precise outcomes at that time?

Eric A Longenhagen: Appropriate, there are information factors you care about in a pattern that small however they’re all expertise associated greater than efficiency associated.

Dan: Am I misremembering or was Anthony Volpe a bat first fringe defender as a prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: In HS I had glove-first, contact-oriented low-end common eval

Thomas: Do you have got a great reminiscence for names on the whole, or is it simply your fixed baseball work and publicity that offers you the encyclopaedic information?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m fairly horrible with them, actually. One thing about sports activities makes that stuff simpler to stay for me. I’ll have to remind myself of somebody’s birthday however I do know each related Purdue go rusher since I used to be born.

Blahblahblah: Might you guess the highest 2 SPs within the minors in SwStr% final yr (min 70 IP)?

AL Central Casting: High Three David Lynch motion pictures?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mulholland Drive
Blue Velvet
Eraserhead

Blahblahblah: I additionally seen immediately that IFFB% within the minors is approach inflated in comparison with the majors. Why would that be? Classification difficulty?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably, it’s a great catch, may be depending on the catching participant’s place reasonably than the hit location/

Frank Sales space: What does Caden Dana should do to boost his recreation to the following stage? And what probabilities does he have at doing so?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe he’s already actually good, simply maintain that changeup coming.

Wade Miley: Hello Eric–Off the again of your head, any noticeable risers or fallers from 50 FV grade or higher from the 2024 draft class? Appears to be like like Nick Kurtz rose and Charlie Condon fell, however any brewing ideas outdoors of these two?

Eric A Longenhagen: Cags’ AFL look scared me

Eric A Longenhagen: Feeling okay about the remainder as I glace at it

Mr Burrito: First, all the time stay up for your  work. The prospect lists are wonderful. Second, no matter Sasaki’s touchdown place, are the Dodgers the very best at pitching growth? I might’ve mentioned so previous to final yr however eleventy TJ surgical procedures give me pause. Ideas?

Eric A Longenhagen: LA is up there, CLE, NYY, TB… you may most likely guess those who’re good. Boston…

Bencle Mens: Are you gonna get on Blue Sky, or are you out on social media?

Eric A Longenhagen: If I’m at a restaurant and I do know the stuff it’s serving is unhealthy for me, and into the restaurant come so many douchebags such that i need to go away, ought to I am going to the restaurant subsequent door serving the identical stuff?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m out.

Eric A Longenhagen: It creates perverse incentives for media, and I can’t take the chaotic nature of the scroll. One factor is about mass loss of life, the following is Livvy Dunne’s abs, the nest is a pet that wants a house, the following is a humorous factor Invoice Burr mentioned… I can’t.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’ve gotta break up. Meg and I’ll replace the prospect lists that havealready run to incorporate the brand new Int’l guys over the weekend, so search for that…

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m engaged on Yankees and Phils prospect lists, these ought to drop subsequent week.

Eric A Longenhagen: Watch a David Lynch factor this weekend, even when it’s simply him cooking quinoa on youtube.