Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat –1/14/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and pleased new yr! Welcome to my first chat of 2025

Jay Jaffe: Once more it’s been awhile, as I’ve been snowed in by my Corridor of Fame collection, together with a larger-than-usual crop of attention-grabbing one-and-done guys. Yesterday I coated Ben Zobrist (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2025-hall-of-fame-ballot-ben-…), tomorrow it’s Curtis Granderson, with Fernando Rodney and Adam Jones nonetheless to squeeze in earlier than Tuesday’s election outcomes.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve been doing a couple of Corridor-related media spots currently, together with a Corridor of Very Good podcast and a few discussions of the poll with writers. If this type of stuff floats your boat, verify in with me at @jayjaffe.bsky.social to comply with alongside. By the best way, my Twitter account is now locked; I mainly stopped posting there simply earlier than working my annual Corridor of Fame poll piece (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffes-2025-hall-of-fame-ballot), and I don’t plan to do greater than often lurk there going ahead.

Jay Jaffe: We’re every week away from the Corridor outcomes being introduced, so I count on a number of questions on that topic. With that, on with the present!

wheelhouse: i’m certain that is the least enjoyable a part of HOF voting to debate, however does stuff like beltran beginning low and gaining year-over-year trouble you? in a way i get it, however on some degree a voter who switches to Sure on him thought that dishonest was dangerous a yr in the past however this yr really it’s previously now. nobody twenty years from now could be going to care if he went in second poll or sixth, so i dunno, both dishonest is disqualifying or it isn’t

Jay Jaffe: Truly, year-over-year adjustments is definitely one of many most attention-grabbing points of protecting the Corridor beat. Voting doesn’t occur in a vacuum. Every candidate is competing with the opposite candidates for a type of 10 spots on a voter’s poll, and whereas not all people goes to 10, sufficient folks try this even some deserving candidates get left off. The voting physique adjustments from yr to yr, with outdated voters changed by new ones, and returning candidates that do effectively get extra scrutiny from voters that bypassed them the final time. It’s a really attention-grabbing set of dynamics in play, one we’ve began to get a greater deal with on due to Ryan Thibodaux and his poll tracker group

Jay Jaffe: Almost about the specifics of Beltrán, what I feel voters are seeing is that it’s the sense of proportion of punishiment that voters are reconsidering. Some folks imagine he’s been significantly scapegoated or suffered way more punishment than, say A.J. Hinch and Alex Cora, who have been suspended for a yr however seamlessly returned to dugouts after that.

Matt: Hey Jay, thanks on your nice work on the HOF collection! Was curious in regards to the Dodgers – particularly, how uncommon is it to have 4 HOF gamers (Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Kershaw final season, possible for 2025) on the roster at one time?

Jay Jaffe: it’s not widespread but it surely’s not, like, that uncommon. There are Yankees groups from the late ’20s and early Nineteen Thirties with 9! The 1961 Cubs had Richie Ashburn, Ernie Banks, Lou Brock, Ron Santo, and Billy Williams, and later Cubs groups from that decade had Banks, Santo, Williams, and Fergie Jenkins. [The Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz/Chipper/McGriff Braves are a recent example of five on a team.]

Jay Jaffe: I ought to put collectively a listing, as a result of i get requested variants of this query a good bit and I by no means have a full accounting useful.

Bighen: Do you actually suppose McCann and Martin are HOFers or have been you simply advocating for maintaining them on poll

Jay Jaffe: I genuinely imagine Martin is worthy based mostly upon the framing knowledge — which is large due to the amount of pitches swing from balls to strikes over the course of a 14-year profession — and  the best way he was considered inside the trade. It wasn’t a fluke that eight of his first 11 groups made the playoffs with him because the common backstop, or that two GMs made signing him at high offseason precedence after which ended 20+ yr playoff droughts with back-to-back appearances. If I’ve to take heed to folks prattle on about this or that catcher’s intangibles, i can level to some very tangible values that put Martin among the many better of his period. I’ve McCann a bit under him in frJAWS, however I feel it is a dialogue value persevering with within the coming years, and it distresses me that each he and Martin could miss the 5% reduce subsequent week. If the voters aren’t going to contemplate the worth pitch framing, what goal knowledge is there to justify the election of Yadier Molina?

sonny: The John Jaso point out within the Zobrist HOF retrospective despatched me down the ras john rabbit gap. stable participant and 80 grade ‘keep in mind some guys’ candidate.

Jay Jaffe: This entire poll collection pulls some Bear in mind Some Guys gems each time, and Jaso is actually one in all them.

sonny: Mike Trout is 32 years outdated and has accrued 86 bWAR. He’s unimaginable, however perhaps not the little doubt 100 WAR participant we could have thought 5 years in the past. What do you suppose his odds are to get–and keep above–100 WAR for his profession?

Jay Jaffe: Oh, I nonetheless I feel he’s received a greater than 50% shot to achieve 100 WAR. He’s beneath contract by way of 2030 and whereas I don’t count on him to play 150 video games once more, I additionally don’t count on him to maintain rolling out 29-game seasons.

SP “Surge”: Lot of beginning pitchers doing higher in monitoring than could have been anticipated – Sabathia (although he’s been a ‘future HoF’ for a while), Pettitte, King Felix, even Buehrle to an extent, are gaining floor or making a robust early exhibiting. Do you suppose that that is proof of a relative mindset shift by the voting physique, giving the continuing discussions on SP within the HoF? What are your ideas right here, given that you simply voted for Felix/have voted previously for Pettitte & could achieve this once more, pending future evaluation?

Jay Jaffe: I used to be simply talking in regards to the starters’ vote pattern with The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans. I feel what we’re seeing is an arrival at a crossroads. CC has the height, the longevity, and the large postseason footpritn of a Corridor starter and appears like a slam dunk in comparison with his poll cohorts and people upcoming. Félix has a formidable peak however no longevity or postseason, Pettitte has longevity and the postseason however solely a modest peak. I’m not completely bought on both Félix or Andy however I’m beginning to consider them and their ilk, and i do know a ton of different voters are as effectively. The place this can go, I don’t know however we’re going to maintain speaking about it over the subsequent a number of years.

And that’s actually what I want would would occur with Martin and McCann, in gentle of the upcoming candidacies of Buster Posey and Yadier Molina.

Brian Cashman: Does Marcus Stroman for Jeimer Candelario make sense?

Jay Jaffe: i believe you can assemble a deal round these two, but it surely may require money and different gamers to degree out since Candelario has two assured years and an choice versus Stroman one yr and a vesting choice. The Yankees do want a 3B, the Reds could have much less want for a starter however Stroman’s groundball tendency could be value extra in that bandbox. I’m unsure Gavin Lux has the protection to play third base although.

Tom: do you suppose postseason statistics needs to be included in a participant’s profession statistics (e.g., Pujols would “have” 722 dwelling runs as an alternative of 703)? i do know the widespread argument towards that’s that not everybody will get to play within the postseason typically or in any respect, so it’s not honest to the Mike Trouts of the world that we’d embody an additional half-season’s value of playoff video games for Mookie Betts when evaluating the 2 — however that’s true of athletic careers typically. not everybody will get to the large leagues of their early 20s or performs till they’re 40. not everybody has the identical harm luck.

Jay Jaffe: I’m superb maintaining common and postseason stats separate. We will add them collectively if we wish, it’s not that onerous.

Sam: What number of extra batting titles would Arraez must win to have a sensible HOF likelihood? And would they must be in a row?

Jay Jaffe: Properly, Invoice Madlock received 4 batting titles however went one-and-done (4.5% in 1993) and has by no means made it onto one other poll. His protection was so dangerous (-107 by way of Whole Zone) that he had no place to play after age 36, and completed with simply 38.3 WAR. He’d be a poor selection for the Corridor, and Arraez won’t seem like an excellent one both. In successful his third batting title final yr, he was value simply 1.0 bWAR, and to this point he’s totaled simply 16.0 by way of age 27. The one means he can guarantee himself of attending to Cooperstown is by reaching 3,000 hits; perhaps if he wins three extra batting titles the dialog turns into extra attention-grabbing, however even a 30 yr outdated with 26 profession WAR (the place he’d be at if he replicated 2022–24 from a WAR standpoint) isn’t any person prone to get my vote.

deGoat: If deGrom can miraculously keep wholesome and put up three extra dominant 150IP and 5+ WAR seasons, is that sufficient for a ticket to Cooperstown?

Jay Jaffe: let’s see him do it after which we’ll speak. There’s no purpose to get overly labored up in regards to the hypothetical of a man who insists upon crashing his Ferrari right into a wall each time he picks it up from the vendor.

Jay Jaffe: and let’s see the place the Félix candidacy goes

Mike: Why is San Francisco struggling to draw expertise from the Pacific Rim? Location, group, and staff’s historical past with Asian gamers would recommend they’d be a extra favorable vacation spot than they’re. How does Posey Repair it

Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose the issue is restricted to the Pacific Rim. The Giants have had a tough time touchdown top-level expertise for the long run for a couple of years now — sure, they got here shut with Correa and Choose — as a result of the group is seen as being in some type of disarray. They’ve reached the playoffs as soon as previously eight seasons, with six sub-.500 seasons and 4 4th- or Fifth-place finishes. They’re simply not seen as an incredible touchdown spot till they pull out of that.

Steroid period: Shouldn’t the HOF bar be decrease for pitchers who pitched through the steroid period?  I’m pondering guys like Kevin Brown, David Cone, and Bret Saberhagen ought to simply be in.  Do you agree?

Jay Jaffe: These guys are at or close to the highest of my listing of ones who a minimum of ought to have gotten an extended look as a result of they arrange the dialog about starters that we’re having now.

On that topic, I wrote about all three of these guys inside a 6-part collection I did in 2022, most of which was earlier than the lockout negotiations heated up. The entire thing wasn’t precisely deliberate out and so it didn’t get a type of fancy navigation bars like my annual ballots do, and so I’d by no means even gathered the hyperlinks collectively till right this moment. They make for some attention-grabbing studying on the topic:

drplantwrench: im a KRod truther (there are dozens of us! dozens!)… do you suppose closers are correctly valued within the superior stats? and within the eyes of voters?

Jay Jaffe: I feel the voters largely have it proper in drawing a distinction between Wagner (elite charge stats) and Okay-Rod (superb charge stats). There’s over half a run of ERA separating the 2 of them, and gaps in WAR, WPA, and WPA/LI, the metrics that go into R-JAWS. I’ve received Wagner as the perfect nearer exterior the Corridor (sixth in R-JAWS) and Okay-Rod thirteenth, under Nathan and Papelbon, each of whom went one-and achieved.

Jay Jaffe: That Rodriguez has a number of ugly off-field incidents — one for assaulting his girlfriend’s father (and injuring himself within the course of) and one for a DV allegation additional hurts his candidacy.

md: Talking of corridor of superb – which candidates this yr could be your picks for corridor of superb?

Jay Jaffe: Pedroia, Wright, Tulowitzki, Zobrist… I don’t see any of them actually as HOFers however I’ve nice respect for all of them and want they’d achieved sufficient to advantage stronger consideration.

Johnny5Alive: I do know I’ve introduced this up just about yearly, however would you ever come round to voting for Wright.  His profession was basically over at 31, and if he even had 3 extra wholesome years at a typical decline, he would cross all of your marks.  He will get penalized for a debilitating harm that ended his profession.  He doesn’t have the awards (altough he ought to have received MVP in 2007 he was the perfect participant within the NL) or the championships (not his fault), however his profession WAR is larger in fewer video games than Kirby Puckett (completely different positions however) and for comparability sake, he has the identical WAR output per sport performed as everybody’s darling this yr Utley (who will get the advantage of ‘beginning late’).  Wright will get penalized additionally for protection, but his protection metrics swing wildly from season to season, which makes them questionable at finest.  The mathematics aint mathin Jaffe

Jay Jaffe: In each of the final two years I’ve had one “attain” candidate on my poll, a man who’s under my analytical threshold that I select with the intention to stimulate my very own pondering and that of others on the bigger matter; final yr it was Pettite, this yr was Félix. I thought of Wright each occasions, however he’s perhaps thirteenth or 14th in my queue. He was on a Corridor tempo even with mediocre protection (-25 DRS profession) however for the accidents, but when we began attempting to credit score each man to whom that occurred by electing them anyway we’d have so as to add one other wing to the Corridor. Dale Murphy, Nomar Garciaparra, Wright, Pedroia, Tulo — I’ve received higher candidates on my want listing at every of their positions, guys with fuller careers I see as stronger HOF priorities.

Followers MLB Ceaselessly: What do you concentrate on Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez who’ve raised their percentages for the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: I feel their hubris value them spots within the Corridor of Fame. They knew the results for violating the Joint Drug Settlement, they usually did so anyway. they’re not getting in by way of the writers’ ballots, they’ll by no means even strategy the ~66% that Bonds and Clemens received until you add their shares collectively.

Mark: Hello Jay, what would it not take for Mark Buehrle to achieve some vital floor within the voting and do you see that ever taking place?

Jay Jaffe: Pettitte getting in would set off an extended take a look at Buehrle, however he’s going to expire of eligibility earlier than that occurs. Perhaps he’ll present up on Period Committee ballots however as long as Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Sheffield, and Kent account for vote shared 3-5x what he acquired it’s robust to see him breaking by way of for election.

Phil: I needed to thanks on your items on Martin and McCann. After numerous thought, I’ve come to disagree with you–I feel framing falls beneath the class of influencing the sport, akin to the impact of “lineup safety” and simolar hard-to-quantify classes, and HOF voting ought to give attention to direct results reminiscent of hitting, catching, and throwing a ball. However your items have been provocative, they made me suppose, in precisely the best way one desires from writing on tough subjects.

Jay Jaffe: I’m glad you loved the items and that they provoked some thought however I feel your comparability is off base. Folks have looked for a “lineup safety” quantification and by no means discovered one however we’ve received a ton of goal knowledge on the worth of swinging a 2-1 rely to 1-2 (for instance), the amount {that a} beginning catcher accumulates on this are, and its foundation as a repeatable ability from yr to yr (topic to ageing like different expertise).

kim: do you suppose the dam has really damaged open on The Coors Downside in corridor of fame voting?

Jay Jaffe: Properly, we’ve received Walker and Helton as Corridor of Famers, Tulo as a one-and-done given his profession size, Arenado wanting very robust in JAWS. How a lot of an issue is there, actually?

mmddyyyy: Would Martin/McCann (or different borderline candidates) have extra assist in the event that they’d performed for a single staff?

Jay Jaffe: A Molina impact? Perhaps. However once more, I feel it’s telling that sensible groups sought them out as acquisition targets.

Talfred: I actually dislike when sportswriters consult with a participant as a “future hall-of-famer”. It seems like they use the time period most frequently when referring to a borderline candidate, and the repeated references can affect discussions in a means that’s not useful. What are your ideas?

Jay Jaffe: I feel it’s a part of human nature to attempt to type these items out as they unfold. We’re not all the time proper, and sure they will sway the dialogue, however you may need higher luck holding the ocean again with a brush if you happen to suppose you’ll be able to produce an voters that is freed from this “bias” — which, in any case, has its foundation in long-term protection of the sport.

Jeff in Jersey: Do you see a reckoning coming amongst HOF voters re: the significance of peak seasons for gamers with shorter careers? I maintain fascinated about how a lot additional groups are paying for elite gamers vs. superb ones. Clearly I’m pondering of Felix right here–but additionally Pedroia, Wright, and so on. I say this regardless of feeling that innings pitched are far undervalued in WAR for starters…however clearly eliteness actually issues.

Jay Jaffe: I feel it’s a frequent matter of dialogue however other than Utley — whose JAWS is excessive sufficient to be proper close to the usual — we’re not seeing a lot to recommend these guys are going ot get elected anytime quickly.

War2d2: Fast poll query: Automobile-Go is on the poll, however Automobile-Go will not be. Each have eerily an identical profession WAR numbers. Is it as a result of Gonzalez is strongly recognized with one staff (Rockies) however Gomez was extra of a journeyman? Or that Gonzalez received all his worth from hitting and Gomez was extra of an all-around participant? I suppose the query I actually have  is: who makes the decision on which participant will get to be on the poll?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a very good query, one I spent a couple of minutes mulling but it surely by no means made it into the piece (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2025-hall-of-fame-ballot-carl…). The separator, I feel, is that Gonzalez received a batting title (and completed third within the MVP voting) and had a few Coors-driven huge offensive seasons, the place Gomez didn’t have huge bold-faced numbers. I can’t low cost the likelihood that the latter could have rubbed some folks the flawed means together with his antics however my guess is the batting title is the most important separator.

Idiotic Failson: Sale is a fHoF, proper? I used to be simply wanting by way of profession WAR and observed he’s the one man within the high 100 with >11k/9, which for a starter is…uh…ludicrous.

Jay Jaffe: I feel his Cy Younger-winning season places him again on a Corridor path, perhaps the second-most-likely man after Cole (excusing the trio of apparent ones who’ve already achieved sufficient, Kershaw, Verlander, and Scherzer). He. Has. To. Keep. Wholesome. Although. And I hope he does as a result of I feel he’s received a greater case than Félix already.

Jeff in Jersey: Eno Sarris famous that Molina, McCann, and Martin have the highest framing seasons of all time, proper across the similar time. They have been forward of the curve on framing, however now they’d be basically league-average or higher. In different phrases, framing is essential, however a median catcher can study it–not like Rickey stealing 130 or Ruth hitting extra homers than anybody within the league (a special type of outlier). Does that issue into your pondering in any respect about their worth?

Jay Jaffe: There was an enormous early-adopter benefit… and it wasn’t in contrast to Babe Ruth determining the worth of uppercutting the ball and knocking it out of the park when all people else was hitting it on the bottom. Being vastly higher at one thing that not everybody understands but has numerous worth. The brand new market inefficiency blah blah blah

Mr Burrito: I really like Russell Martin and really feel like he was grossly underrated throughout his profession. However would you’ve got traded Martin for, say, Jim Edmonds? Or Troy Tulowitzki? Or Felix Hernandez? In a heartbeat, sure. However all these guys are Corridor of Very Good, not HOF….. Additionally, wish to say I really like your work and look ahead to your insights.

Jay Jaffe: Thanks for the sort phrases. I all the time have an issue with these hypothetical Corridor of Famer trades. Would I commerce Martin for Edmonds? What does my roster seem like? What do their contracts seem like? What does my farm system seem like? Am I going to be fired if I don’t win the World Sequence this yr?  I’m not tremendously inclined to suppose laborious about an oversimplified situation when life places sufficient ambiguity and complexity on my plate.

Past that, I feel Edmonds is a reduce above these different guys you point out apart from Martin, somebody whose WAR and JAWS (60.4/42.6/51.5) are way more in keeping with different Corridor of Famers at his place.

Hyperlink: Talking of the SP crossroads, does it seem like a “rising tide lifts all ships” scenario for high-peak, short-career instances with Andruw & Utley giving a lift to the Wrights and Pedroias of the world?  Traditionally, the HoF had made seemingly room for a variety of such candidates (Dean, Kiner) although that trickled off in some unspecified time in the future.

Jay Jaffe: Once more, there’s an enormous distinction in that Jones and Utley have WAR and JAWS just like the typical HOFers at their positions, whereas the Wrights and Pedroias are quick. Not each voter thinks by way of WAR and JAWS however once they’re contemplating the amount of a participant’s profession, these numbers clearly do carry some affect inside the voting physique.

Jay: Alex Bregman to yanks holdup as a result of dropping draft picks and/or luxurious tax ?

Jay Jaffe: In all probability extra the latter. however I can’t say anybody his profession needs to be so assured in the place it’s headed given his pattern arrows. He’s not the 2017–19 man anymore (cough) and his wRC+ has declined in every of the previous two seasons.

Why_Wright: Why do you emphasize the ethical element for a participant (eg, see dialogue on Okay Rod).    I get dinging a participant for dishonest, however who’re we to evaluate an individual’s ethical stature based mostly upon information (and/or prison) stories?   

I don’t confuse the artwork with the artist.   I’m gonna go see Pablo Picasso’s work every time I can, regardless of his alleged behaviours.

Would you stand exterior the met with a sandwich board protesting Picasso?   Would you inform your spouse/girlfriend “I don’t suppose we must always go to his retrospective, I’ve learn he was a nasty man?”

Jay Jaffe: Legal stories have a tendency to stay out like a sore thumb and usually are far worse than the on-field stuff that some voters are involved about (PEDs and sign-stealing). Not all people makes use of them as a disqualifying issue (I’ve voted for Bonds and Andruw regardless of their DV baggage, not that I’m 100% snug with that selection) however some folks do, and I’m not going to inform them they shouldn’t.

Your Picasso instance falls flat, for me. I’ve sufficient understanding of his place in artwork historical past to know that he’s one of many greats, however that doesn’t imply i am going see each exhibit devoted to him at MOMA or must anoint him with my seal of approval yearly beneath heightened scrutiny. I feel Okay-Rod was an excellent nearer, however I don’t suppose he belongs on my poll or the Corridor based mostly on his physique of labor. The ugly stuff is there however isn’t the deciding issue for me.

Key Flaw: Can HOF Plaques be modified? Like, for instance, if the Orioles resolve to retire Mike Mussina’s quantity (however let Adley use it) and welcome him again as an Oriole (I’m nonetheless bitter they didn’t pony up the cash to signal him), may he change his thoughts and say “yeah, I’d fairly have an O’s cap”?

Jay Jaffe: Nearly actually no. The Corridor did recast Jackie Robinson’s plaque as a result of the unique made no point out of his function in integration, which finally turned a flawed value righting particularly when Larry Doby’s plaque talked about his function, and when Rachel Robinson weighed in (https://www.mlb.com/information/why-jackie-robinson-hall-of-fame-plaque-was-c…).

A cap selection is fairly trivial by comparability.

Jay Jaffe: OK people, it’s been nice chatting with you all. Thanks for stopping by. Subsequent week is type of contact and go — it’s the day of the announcement and my fingers will probably be flying already however I’ll go for a brief chat. Till then or every time, take care!